Author | Lightnews

Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 1h

😂

Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

To be fair though to Vancouver, I think the majority of baseball fans here are Jays fans first, and maybe Ms fans 2nd (if at all), or fans of another team entirely.

Sports radio is just extreme bias on steroids imo so of course it'll sound like it's a 50/50 thing but it's probably closer to 80% TOR

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

Yes, and that was with Marner still. The possession and xGF share difference from 2023-24 under Keefe to last year under Berube was night & day.

Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

yep if that worked I think there's lots of value there.

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

You'd think, but I'm seeing a lot of "it's early" takes out there.

One thing I do think is that Berube's system truly isn't very good. Last year the team's CF and xGF figures took sharp declines vs Keefe's last year. I'm not saying Keefe is the next Scotty Bowman but man.

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

Vancouver is a battleground between Jays fans and those weirdos who just hate anything east of Langley and therefore the Jays suck bc "the east" who therefore decide their ride or die is the fucking Ms lmao

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

No disagreement though that right now today, not great and trending the wrong way to boot

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

Yup for sure also all valid points. I made another comment in a separate thread splinter about thinking of a post-Marner world and backfilling against that. Cozens comes to mind. I know the cost would've been more than simply Grebenkin and a 1st but damn, if you're gonna swing for the fence, SWING

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

PLUS, at this point management *HAD* to know Marner was likely out the door. Cozens could have been at least a reasonable bet as a long-term solution to that talent loss. My issue was around what the 1st bought, not that they spent the 1st.

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

But again my larger point is, if you've already decided that hell or high water you're going to spend valuable draft capital like a 1st rounder, swing at a top 6 option. Go swing for a Dylan Cozens or someone like that. He was absolutely out there. This team has bled skill year after year.

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

I've got a deep respect for Steve, and if Laughton could've slotted in as intended as a quality 3C @ $1.5M for 2 playoff runs, I think there's immense value there. At 4C, it's less so. At Laughton's level of play (he got absolutely snowed under based on xGF% SVA with the Leafs last season), less so

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

Like I get it, there's some adjustment time there but mid- to low-30% range is beyond abysmal.

Overall I was fine with them spending a 1st to upgrade at forward, but he imo wasn't the guy they should have targeted (and maybe none of the available options were worth a 1st, retention agnostic)

Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

(via NST)

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

Looking at Laughton's 5on5SVA xGF% after coming to the Leafs, it was ~37% in 20 regular season games (worst on the team of anyone who played 15+ games), and 32% in 13 playoff games (worst on the team aside from Kampf who played only 1 game).

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

A key difference in the McCabe deal was they bought 2 additional years of McCabe at $2M instead of just 1 for Laughton, and once he adjusted, McCabe was easily a big minute contributor on the blue line, comfortably top-4 and arguably on this team, top pair. That's a vast difference vs a 4th liner.

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

I agree in theory. But, Laughton had a difficult time figuring it out, ended up on the 4th line. Paying a 4th liner $3M is brutal, but paying a 4th liner $1.5M isn't something worth planting a flag over.

I think philosophically, if I'm dealing a 1st rounder away, I want a top-6 player in return.

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

Definitely. The over-reaction to get tougher/grittier/slower kept on evolving year after year. The worst possible knock-on effect of that MTL loss.

Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 2h

They're probably a top-10 team this year. I don't think that means they're great. I guess "good" can be debated too.

I meant more that they were a solidly good/borderline great team in 2021-2023.

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 4h

Good/great teams often have big playoff failures before breaking through. Tampa got swept by Columbus before winning B2B titles for instance.

I agree that the team's window is all-but-shut, but I'm not 100% convinced it was at that point after the 2021 flameout.

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 5h

(you were very clear and my response wasn't as clear, but it was in full agreement with you and adding to your point)

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 5h

No for sure. I agree with you, I mean more like where's the person with this guy's exact profile but without that nazi branding to take his place and (presumably) run for office?

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 5h

I know nothing of this person but I think any amount of nazi tattoos should be a disqualifier instantly. Is there nobody sharing his exact valueset that has cat tattoos rather than a nazi one?

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 5h

Carlo you can make a reasonable argument on, but Laughton was never worth a 1st rounder, not even at the time that deal was made. That isn't hindsight

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Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 7h

If you like Ballard, you'll like Bosch

Muellercleez @muellercleez.bsky.social · 20h

Fuck. I posted this exactly image in March

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