Mike Talbot
@miketalbot.io
Hydrologist, engineer, and PhD student at Colorado State University. Researching the use of machine learning in large sample hydrology. I post and repost science, not politics.
Pinned
Mike Talbot
@miketalbot.io
· Jan 6
In Defense of the Acre-Foot
Let me start by asking a simple question: is it easier for you to visualize, in your mind’s eye, a million gallons of water or an Olympic swimming pool? Or for you cynics out there: is it easier to vi...
miketalbot.io
The units you choose to use when presenting your results are even more important than you might think. Here I use the acre-foot as a case study in why it's worth giving it some extra consideration.
miketalbot.io/posts/2024-1...
miketalbot.io/posts/2024-1...
Reposted by Mike Talbot
Hydrology Paper of the Day @cw3escripps.bsky.social on how Long Short-Term Memory models can improve streamflow: the need to consider time scales for integration of SWE and Q; the veracity of different observations at daily and monthly integrations; and a better understanding of spatial patterns.
CW3E Publication Notice: "Improving Streamflow Simulation through Machine Learning-Powered Data Integration and Its Potential for Forecasting in the Western U.S." in the @egu.eu's Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. Read more about this research here: go.ucsd.edu/4qMBt27
November 14, 2025 at 4:13 AM
Hydrology Paper of the Day @cw3escripps.bsky.social on how Long Short-Term Memory models can improve streamflow: the need to consider time scales for integration of SWE and Q; the veracity of different observations at daily and monthly integrations; and a better understanding of spatial patterns.
Reposted by Mike Talbot
In a 2024 paper criticizing the 'billion-dollar-disasters' database, Roger Pielke Jr. published analysis that is best described as a Russian-doll of errors.
Here's my in-depth take down of his appallingly bad work.
economicsfromthetopdown.com/2025/10/26/r...
Here's my in-depth take down of his appallingly bad work.
economicsfromthetopdown.com/2025/10/26/r...
Roger Pielke Jr.’s Appallingly Bad Analysis of Billion Dollar Disasters – Economics from the Top Down
In a recent paper called Scientific integrity and U.S. “Billion Dollar Disasters”, Roger Pielke Jr. published a chart that's so bad I've devoted a whole essay to debunking it.
economicsfromthetopdown.com
October 26, 2025 at 3:24 PM
In a 2024 paper criticizing the 'billion-dollar-disasters' database, Roger Pielke Jr. published analysis that is best described as a Russian-doll of errors.
Here's my in-depth take down of his appallingly bad work.
economicsfromthetopdown.com/2025/10/26/r...
Here's my in-depth take down of his appallingly bad work.
economicsfromthetopdown.com/2025/10/26/r...
From December of last year
August 12, 2025 at 2:34 AM
From December of last year
Reposted by Mike Talbot
I think this is correct. A PhD is not a signal of innate intelligence, but rather of perseverance and grit in the pursuit of knowledge. Conflating LLMs with PhDs is a category error.
Something that I have been thinking about with attribution of "PhD level intelligence" or "PhD level expertise" to a machine is that it reflects an increasing trend among these AI bros and their sycophants to want the products of highly skilled training without actually doing any of the work.
August 10, 2025 at 12:55 PM
I think this is correct. A PhD is not a signal of innate intelligence, but rather of perseverance and grit in the pursuit of knowledge. Conflating LLMs with PhDs is a category error.
Reposted by Mike Talbot
Something that I have been thinking about with attribution of "PhD level intelligence" or "PhD level expertise" to a machine is that it reflects an increasing trend among these AI bros and their sycophants to want the products of highly skilled training without actually doing any of the work.
August 9, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Something that I have been thinking about with attribution of "PhD level intelligence" or "PhD level expertise" to a machine is that it reflects an increasing trend among these AI bros and their sycophants to want the products of highly skilled training without actually doing any of the work.
Reposted by Mike Talbot
A new co-authored research paper on "Rain-on-snow (ROS) based flooding" got published recently. We showed how ROS events contribute to actual flooding and identified the causal structure leading to ROS floods in different regions of the globe.
Paper link: doi.org/10.1016/j.jh...
Paper link: doi.org/10.1016/j.jh...
July 25, 2025 at 11:05 PM
A new co-authored research paper on "Rain-on-snow (ROS) based flooding" got published recently. We showed how ROS events contribute to actual flooding and identified the causal structure leading to ROS floods in different regions of the globe.
Paper link: doi.org/10.1016/j.jh...
Paper link: doi.org/10.1016/j.jh...
There are many factors involved in making the recent Texas flood so deadly, but one I haven't seen much in the discussion is land use deregulation. This is the kind of thing we can expect to happen in a world where we allow businesses to do whatever they want, wherever they want.
July 10, 2025 at 4:18 PM
There are many factors involved in making the recent Texas flood so deadly, but one I haven't seen much in the discussion is land use deregulation. This is the kind of thing we can expect to happen in a world where we allow businesses to do whatever they want, wherever they want.
Reposted by Mike Talbot
I wish people would stop describing things that are indisputably provable as a matter of fact as "controversial." People not liking a fact doesn't mean the fact is controversial. Reality is not malleable around our beliefs and it shouldn't be. We need to stop acting like it is.
June 20, 2025 at 8:36 PM
I wish people would stop describing things that are indisputably provable as a matter of fact as "controversial." People not liking a fact doesn't mean the fact is controversial. Reality is not malleable around our beliefs and it shouldn't be. We need to stop acting like it is.
Reposted by Mike Talbot
I just saw a good example of what I was talking about with chatgpt being a crackpot generating machine.
A guy had started Wheeler's Spacetime Physics, and had a problem on page 2.
Wheeler expressed a square root as a power of 1/2.
√a = a^1/2. This is basic algebra, not physics.
A guy had started Wheeler's Spacetime Physics, and had a problem on page 2.
Wheeler expressed a square root as a power of 1/2.
√a = a^1/2. This is basic algebra, not physics.
May 21, 2025 at 7:38 AM
I just saw a good example of what I was talking about with chatgpt being a crackpot generating machine.
A guy had started Wheeler's Spacetime Physics, and had a problem on page 2.
Wheeler expressed a square root as a power of 1/2.
√a = a^1/2. This is basic algebra, not physics.
A guy had started Wheeler's Spacetime Physics, and had a problem on page 2.
Wheeler expressed a square root as a power of 1/2.
√a = a^1/2. This is basic algebra, not physics.
Reposted by Mike Talbot
I just have to say, as a historian of the Reconstruction-era Klan, that masked paramilitaries are very bad and masked vigilantes are even worse and there are causal links between the two and none of this is good for democracy.
Just some creepy armed Mad Max guys trying to gain entry to Dodgers Stadium.
ICE says it wasn’t them. DHS says they were Border Patrol. But honestly who the hell knows? They’ve given permission for any psycho to put on a ski mask, point a gun, grab people & throw them into an unmarked vehicle.
ICE says it wasn’t them. DHS says they were Border Patrol. But honestly who the hell knows? They’ve given permission for any psycho to put on a ski mask, point a gun, grab people & throw them into an unmarked vehicle.
June 19, 2025 at 10:11 PM
I just have to say, as a historian of the Reconstruction-era Klan, that masked paramilitaries are very bad and masked vigilantes are even worse and there are causal links between the two and none of this is good for democracy.
Reposted by Mike Talbot
Is “abundance” basically “development” with a glow-up?
What does it mean to talk about development when the Trump administration is basically on a project of reversing development?
and how should we be talking about “development” in 2025, anyway?
new article:
www.compactmag.com/article/the-...
What does it mean to talk about development when the Trump administration is basically on a project of reversing development?
and how should we be talking about “development” in 2025, anyway?
new article:
www.compactmag.com/article/the-...
June 19, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Is “abundance” basically “development” with a glow-up?
What does it mean to talk about development when the Trump administration is basically on a project of reversing development?
and how should we be talking about “development” in 2025, anyway?
new article:
www.compactmag.com/article/the-...
What does it mean to talk about development when the Trump administration is basically on a project of reversing development?
and how should we be talking about “development” in 2025, anyway?
new article:
www.compactmag.com/article/the-...
Reposted by Mike Talbot
Thanks for the reminder @janemunday.bsky.social. Every summer, I repost this article DROWNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE DROWNING. To date, I know of FOUR kids who were saved after someone who'd clicked on the link learnt how to spot actual drowning. Take time to read and pass on.
slate.com/technology/2...
slate.com/technology/2...
Drowning Doesn’t Look Like Drowning
Drowning is not the violent, splashing call for help that most people expect.
slate.com
June 19, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Thanks for the reminder @janemunday.bsky.social. Every summer, I repost this article DROWNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE DROWNING. To date, I know of FOUR kids who were saved after someone who'd clicked on the link learnt how to spot actual drowning. Take time to read and pass on.
slate.com/technology/2...
slate.com/technology/2...
The amount of AI slop on LinkedIn is so unreal, you can now read a post written by AI featuring a misleading photo created by AI, commented on by hundreds of users automating their online presence with AI tools.
What could be more devoid of real value?
What could be more devoid of real value?
June 18, 2025 at 4:47 AM
The amount of AI slop on LinkedIn is so unreal, you can now read a post written by AI featuring a misleading photo created by AI, commented on by hundreds of users automating their online presence with AI tools.
What could be more devoid of real value?
What could be more devoid of real value?
Reposted by Mike Talbot
E.P.A. Plans to Reconsider a Ban on Cancer-Causing Asbestos
www.nytimes.com
June 17, 2025 at 1:33 AM
Reposted by Mike Talbot
The root that tears apart your foundation begins as a seed of distrust, hate, and blame.
The seed that grew into a dictatorship in Europe didn’t arrive overnight.
It started with everyday Germans mad about inflation and looking for someone to blame.
The seed that grew into a dictatorship in Europe didn’t arrive overnight.
It started with everyday Germans mad about inflation and looking for someone to blame.
February 19, 2025 at 6:44 PM
The root that tears apart your foundation begins as a seed of distrust, hate, and blame.
The seed that grew into a dictatorship in Europe didn’t arrive overnight.
It started with everyday Germans mad about inflation and looking for someone to blame.
The seed that grew into a dictatorship in Europe didn’t arrive overnight.
It started with everyday Germans mad about inflation and looking for someone to blame.
It makes my day when I get an aggressive bus driver who owns the road. Show those cars who's boss, m'man.
January 21, 2025 at 11:30 PM
It makes my day when I get an aggressive bus driver who owns the road. Show those cars who's boss, m'man.
Reposted by Mike Talbot
Jonathan Frame is looking for PhD students and a PostDoc at his new group at UoA. If you want to work at the intersection of Earth Sciences / Hydrology and Deep Learning or also modeling in more general, go checkout the postings at
dualearth.github.io/opportunitie...
Reposts appreciated.
dualearth.github.io/opportunitie...
Reposts appreciated.
Opportunities - DualEarth
dualearth.github.io
January 7, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Jonathan Frame is looking for PhD students and a PostDoc at his new group at UoA. If you want to work at the intersection of Earth Sciences / Hydrology and Deep Learning or also modeling in more general, go checkout the postings at
dualearth.github.io/opportunitie...
Reposts appreciated.
dualearth.github.io/opportunitie...
Reposts appreciated.
The units you choose to use when presenting your results are even more important than you might think. Here I use the acre-foot as a case study in why it's worth giving it some extra consideration.
miketalbot.io/posts/2024-1...
miketalbot.io/posts/2024-1...
In Defense of the Acre-Foot
Let me start by asking a simple question: is it easier for you to visualize, in your mind’s eye, a million gallons of water or an Olympic swimming pool? Or for you cynics out there: is it easier to vi...
miketalbot.io
January 6, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The units you choose to use when presenting your results are even more important than you might think. Here I use the acre-foot as a case study in why it's worth giving it some extra consideration.
miketalbot.io/posts/2024-1...
miketalbot.io/posts/2024-1...
I started running again in 2024 for the first time in 9 years. I can definitely improve upon this in 2025, but it just feels good to be back at it.
January 1, 2025 at 4:26 PM
I started running again in 2024 for the first time in 9 years. I can definitely improve upon this in 2025, but it just feels good to be back at it.
All I want for Christmas is a fully automated weather station with a heated weighing gage and an Alter shield. Is that so much to ask for?
December 26, 2024 at 12:29 AM
All I want for Christmas is a fully automated weather station with a heated weighing gage and an Alter shield. Is that so much to ask for?
Reposted by Mike Talbot
Nothing quite so clearly describes corrupt capitalism as the idea that the companies responsible for disastrous #climate disruption are now trying to profit from technologies they claim will solve it.
The New Climate Gold Rush: Scrubbing Carbon From the Sky www.nytimes.com/2024/12/22/c...
The New Climate Gold Rush: Scrubbing Carbon From the Sky www.nytimes.com/2024/12/22/c...
Removing Carbon From the Sky Could Be the Next Climate Gold Rush
Investors are betting that they can make a dent in global warming, and healthy profits, with companies that alter the atmosphere.
www.nytimes.com
December 22, 2024 at 8:14 PM
Nothing quite so clearly describes corrupt capitalism as the idea that the companies responsible for disastrous #climate disruption are now trying to profit from technologies they claim will solve it.
The New Climate Gold Rush: Scrubbing Carbon From the Sky www.nytimes.com/2024/12/22/c...
The New Climate Gold Rush: Scrubbing Carbon From the Sky www.nytimes.com/2024/12/22/c...
