Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte
Our timely conjoint experiment, fielded in two core European constituencies 🇩🇪 🇬🇧, shows no public appetite for tariffs in Europe.
doi.org/10.1080/1350...
Are there any papers that systematically assess policy responsiveness disparities based on age groups generally or pension eligibility specifically?
It's definitely a "compound" treatment as the event this is based on is an instance where PP signalled rejection of formal collab. and also described VOX as racist, misogynistic and homophobic.
So not a simple case of rhetorical/policy convergence but rather ostracism.
2. Camp B wants the right to govern but would prefer a minority gov. or a centrist coalition and is demobilised by thought of far-right in gov.
Since B>A, net effect of accommodation is negative.
3. This is not an electoral strategy based on vote-seeking but actually a policy-seeking outcome.
1. Simple (but wrong) explanations about market transfers are easily translated to strategy [...]
I was lucky enough to present some new causal work on Friday at LSE showing that the PP does better when it signals distinctiveness from VOX.
~1.5K tests, same result. Rejecting far-right benefits centre-right
This paper was desk rejected twice. It was accepted at JEPP after 1 round of revisions
Replication materials here: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...
Tariffs — retaliatory or otherwise — are NOT a vote-winning strategy for European politicians.
Leaders seeking “firm” responses to US protectionism might find limited public backing at home. 🗳️🇪🇺
We find there is NO group that shows majority support for tariffs.
Against our expectation, we find no clear pattern across German and British respondents.
It doesn’t matter if they’re framed as -
• protection for domestic producers
• funding for green policies 🌱
• retaliation against other nations 🇺🇸
🇩🇪 Germany – coalition-preference experiment
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – visual candidate-choice experiment
Tariff proposals were tested alongside other policies to simulate realistic political trade-offs.
Polling suggested support for retaliation: but are those attitudes real, or just patriotic reflexes in a heated moment?
by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte — Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Robert Huber
Given the state of *looks around* we asked: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?
@grahn.bsky.social @katharinalawall.bsky.social @sophiemainz.bsky.social Maria Nordbrandt & I show the answer is a resolute no
@jeppjournal.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/1350...
by Peter Allen — Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Nick Clarke
by Mirya R. Holman — Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte
Average time from project start to publication: 3.69 years
Median time: 2.84
Minimum: 3 months
Max: 11 years
Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Marc Debus
Please share!
www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/en/three-stu...
Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:
🧵⬇️
Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Will Jennings, Kai Arzheimer , and 12 more Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Will Jennings, Kai Arzheimer, Rebecca Sear, Robert Huber, Alessandro Nai, Richard Hayton, Matthijs Rooduijn, Christian Rauh, Caterina Froio, Daphne Halikiopoulou, M Josep, Bonnie N. Field, Tarik Abou‐Chadi, Roos Vonk
Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Will Jennings
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A 🧵 on our findings...
Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte
