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Claudia Rae Sahm is an American economist, currently serving as Chief Economist for New Century Advisors. She is also the… more

Claudia Sahm
H-index: 17
Economics 57%
Business 32%
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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

markgsheppard.com
I modified the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, creating 3.2k spacial Sahm Rules, which show that #recession exposure can differ by place/time.

The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.
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by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Zandi must be using the distributional financial accounts which are like a quarterly version of the SCF. www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/...
The Fed - Distributional Financial Accounts Overview
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
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by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
The BLS/BEA estimates of consumer spending by income are much less skewed toward the highest income than the Moody's estimate. www.bea.gov/data/special.... Still skewed. While series is shorter, 2004-2022, the upward drift in top share is less clear.
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by Claudia Sahm

by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
hard to see any reaction to the government shutdown in the Michigan Survey ... typically such dysfunction leaves an imprint. of course, views were already quite downbeat.
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by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
It’s a good reason not to hold up the cola. Nice to hear.
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by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Any word on the collection for October CPI? Delay in publishing estimates is a problem; missing the data to do an estimate is an even bigger one.
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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

bencasselman.bsky.social
SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay
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by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
"“At a moment like this, as complicated as monetary policy is, if everybody were in agreement, I would actually be worried that they're missing something,” Sahm said." .... Looking forward to the FOMC minutes tomorrow. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
The Fed minutes may hint at what's next for interest rates
The minutes are dry, but they contain clues about what the central bank might do next.
www.marketplace.org
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by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
The President could have designated a handful of BLS employees essential and given us the September employment report today. Instead, we got this ...
ronfilipkowski.bsky.social
Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 12d
Posted by the President of the United States.
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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

tsancio.bsky.social
The @profgalloway.com Markets podcast interviews @claudia-sahm.bsky.social for a take on Fed independence and market reactions overcast.fm/+ABIYtSt8U4I
What Happens if the Fed is Compromised — ft. Claudia Sahm — Prof G Markets
Ed and Scott are joined by Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed Section Chief, for a conversation on the Fed’s independence. Claudia weighs in on the health of the U.S....
overcast.fm
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by Claudia Sahm

Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Richard S.J. Tol, Mark D. White , and 8 more

ronfilipkowski.bsky.social
Posted by the President of the United States.
3.2K 2.7K 7.5K

by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
They get the ADP micro data and estimate their own series.
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by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
"Economists stress that the Fed is not flying blind. Sahm said a better description was that the central bank is driving with a dirty windshield.

“They will find ways to bring information in. They have navigated shutdowns before. They will make the best of what they have,” she said."
marketwatch.com
MarketWatch @marketwatch.com · 13d
The Federal Reserve is already staring down the difficult task of determining interest-rate policy in the midst of a sluggish labor market and high inflation. Now the government shutdown could make the central bank’s job even harder.
Government shutdown means Fed lacks crucial data as it considers rate cuts
It’s a bad time for the data to disappear.
trib.al
3 13 54

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

marketwatch.com
The Federal Reserve is already staring down the difficult task of determining interest-rate policy in the midst of a sluggish labor market and high inflation. Now the government shutdown could make the central bank’s job even harder.
Government shutdown means Fed lacks crucial data as it considers rate cuts
It’s a bad time for the data to disappear.
trib.al
2 2

by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
"The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court."
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/slow-down-...
Slow down and protect things: Fed independence and the Supreme Court
The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court.
stayathomemacro.substack.com
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by Claudia Sahm

Substack
Slow down and protect things: Fed independence and the Supreme Court

The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court.

Reposts 0 13d

by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Tenure protections are critical to Fed independence. The White House argued that the president can define "cause" for firing without judicial review. If the Supreme Court had found that reasoning ironclad, Cook would've been removed. We might still end up with weak tenure protections, but not today!
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by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Today's decision doesn't end the threats to Fed independence, far from it, but it does slow down the attacks and lowers odds of some worst case scenarios.

For example, Trump won't have a loyalist majority early next year when the Reserve Bank Presidents reviewed. Powell less likely to be fired.
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by Claudia Sahm

by Claudia Sahm — Reposted by Trevon D. Logan

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
THIS IS VERY VERY GOOD NEWS.
annabower.bsky.social
Anna Bower @annabower.bsky.social · 14d
BREAKING: Supreme Court will allow Lisa Cook to remain on federal reserve board for now, ruling that the government’s application for a stay is deferred pending oral argument in January 2026
CORDER LIST: 606 U.S.) WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2025 25A312 ORDER IN PENDING CASE TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF U.S., ET AL. V. COOK, LISA D. The application for stay presented to The Chief Justice and by him referred to the Court is deferred pending oral argument in January 2026. The Clerk is directed to establish a briefing schedule for amici curiae and any supplemental briefs responding to amici.
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by Claudia Sahm

Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Richard S.J. Tol, David R. Miller

annabower.bsky.social
BREAKING: Supreme Court will allow Lisa Cook to remain on federal reserve board for now, ruling that the government’s application for a stay is deferred pending oral argument in January 2026
CORDER LIST: 606 U.S.) WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2025 25A312 ORDER IN PENDING CASE TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF U.S., ET AL. V. COOK, LISA D. The application for stay presented to The Chief Justice and by him referred to the Court is deferred pending oral argument in January 2026. The Clerk is directed to establish a briefing schedule for amici curiae and any supplemental briefs responding to amici.
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Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

peark.es
Wow! This is a welcome surprise.

www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...
White House withdraws Antoni’s nomination to lead BLS | CNN Politics
The White House has sent paperwork to the Senate to withdraw the nomination of E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, three sources told CNN.
www.cnn.com
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by Claudia Sahm

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by Claudia Sahm

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by Claudia Sahm

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
How does the Fed selling assets raise their price (lower the yield)?
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 15d
Warsh says “interest rates can be made lower.” He draws a distinction between the Fed’s short-term policy rate and long-term rates for mortgages and other financial products. It’s the latter he’s more concerned about. He will lower long rates primarily by ridding the Fed of its financial assets
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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

mattpeterson.bsky.social
Warsh says “interest rates can be made lower.” He draws a distinction between the Fed’s short-term policy rate and long-term rates for mortgages and other financial products. It’s the latter he’s more concerned about. He will lower long rates primarily by ridding the Fed of its financial assets
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Reposted by Claudia Sahm

mattpeterson.bsky.social
Warsh: “The data that most economists, including the Fed leadership, rely on, is data that comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Commerce. I don't know a single high quality public company that relies on data that is that dated, that is subject to that much error.”
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