Claudia Sahm
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claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm
@claudia-sahm.bsky.social

macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.

Claudia Rae Sahm is an American economist, currently serving as Chief Economist for New Century Advisors. She is also the founder of Sahm Consulting. Claudia was formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, where she worked in various capacities from 2007 to 2019. Sahm specializes in macroeconomics and household finance. She is best known for the development of the Sahm rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) indicator for identifying recessions in real-time. .. more

Economics 57%
Business 32%

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

Here's a Substack post to go with this thread. bsky.app/profile/clau...

Well, if you say so.

"If the data revisions play out as expected tomorrow, the United States may have just had a year with essentially no net job growth, yet without being in a recession."

stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-year-wit...
A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year, even without a recession.
stayathomemacro.substack.com

Reposted by Claudia Sahm

That’s incorrect.

Yes, April 2025 onward.

The labor market does not strike me as a having a recession dynamic... though you'd be hard pressed to find that much red on payrolls outside of a recession.

That gradual rise in the unemployment is also unprecedented outside of a recession. So much to think about.

Even so, the unemployment rate has been rising gradually, almost 1 percentage point over the past three years. Demand for workers is not keeping up with supply, even with the much lower immigration.

The swing in immigration restrictions began in the summer of 2024 and intensified in 2025 -- is almost certainly behind much, but not all, of the slowing in job creation.

WH keeps 'pumping up' payrolls for tomorrow. Here's why. Revisions could wipe out all job growth last year. Zero. zip. nada.

(Note, downward revisions start in 2024, so not a simple politics story.)

I only have one set of hands. Was just coming here to share.

Reposted by Dean Baker

Hard data is soft ...