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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 3h

The "administration was not concerned that Trump’s new proposed tariffs on China would trigger the kind of market turmoil that followed his sharp escalation of levies to 145 per cent in April," an anonymous senior US official says

Scott Bessent slams China: ‘They want to pull everybody else down with them’

US Treasury secretary tells FT that Beijing’s export controls are ‘a sign of how weak their economy is’

www.ft.com

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 1d

WSJ edit board is disappointed that Bessent isn't pushing Argentina to dollarize www.wsj.com/opinion/arge...

Opinion | Argentina: Right Country, Wrong Rescue

Javier Milei needs U.S. help, but his country really needs dollarization.

www.wsj.com

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 1d

Trump en route to Israel said new +100% China tariffs are still planned for Nov. 1. "Let’s see what happens. For me, you know what Nov. 1 is? An eternity. For somebody else, it’s right around the corner. For me, when I hear Nov. 1, it’s an eternity.”

(Market will hear TACO)

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Reposted by Matt Peterson

Amy Maxmen, PhD @amymaxmen.bsky.social · 3d

The Trump admin is in the midst of laying off 1,100-1,200 HHS staff. The CDC's outbreak responders, gone. The office producing CDC's weekly journal MMWR is gone. CDC staff securing sensitive data, gone. Worker safety, gone. Immunization group, gone.

Instead, Congress watches RFK "make the proof"

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 5d

RFK Jr on Tylenol and autism: "It is not proof. We're doing the studies to make the proof."

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 3d

Trump on Friday: Layoffs will be "Democrat-oriented"

Lena Sun @lenasun.bsky.social · 3d

NEW: @CDCgov hit hard by massive firings that several staff describe to me as a “bloodbath.”
Among those RIFd:
—leadership of the center for immunization and respiratory diseases;
—leadership of global health center
—leadership of the measles outbreak response; 1/4

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 3d

Hey he got oil down today. Also stocks and the dollar. But cheaper gas!

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 3d

Great qs, to which I say 🤷

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 3d

China put Trump in a corner. Every way out hurts. www.barrons.com/articles/chi...

China's latest threat to clamp down on exports of rare earths appears to have blindsided President Donald Trump. The Chinese plan "came out of nowhere," Trump said Friday in a social media post.
"Nobody has ever seen anything like this."
Beijing's escalation of the trade fight has put the Trump administration on the backfoot at a moment of weakness. China's actions show that the U.S. is vulnerable to economic pressure, and China has forced the administration to choose between further escalation or a humiliating climbdown.

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 3d

We're back to Liberation Day vibes as tariff suck value out of stocks. That bled over into the Treasury market last time, and it very nearly required the Fed to intervene. That more than anything prompted Trump and Bessent to back off. Are they more prepared this time?

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 3d

Yeah I had seen Dec. 1, so no, I'm not sure

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 3d

100% *additional* tariffs. 155%!

Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 3d

Trump proposing 100% tariffs on China

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 4d

Nasdaq was at a record high Wednesday. Now down >2%. This is another way China can hit Trump. Its export controls can hurt US tech leaders directly, and Trump has been backed into escalating rather than finding a way out for them.

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 4d

China knows it can hurt Trump. Look at soybeans. US farmers are shut out of a critical market in retaliation for tariffs. With the government shut down, Trump can’t easily pull funds for farmers and is attempting to blame Dems for the lack of farm aid.

Any climb down here admits defeat.

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 4d

The Trump admin put export controls up for negotiation in its tariff talks, and has been making an ask of Beijing in the TikTok deal. Trump has declared victory on each incremental negotiation that maintains the status quo.

China has leverage and is using it. US response so far is to dig in.

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 4d

Trump says he was blindsided by new Chinese trade restrictions. He is “calculating at this moment is a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America.” Market not happy.

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Reposted by Matt Peterson

David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 4d

The selective release of data during shutdown (CPI-yes, jobs report-no) is troubling.

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 4d

SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 4d

My take on the Argentina bailout is that if you're a political ally of Trump and Bessent, this is great. If you're someone in the US trying to make a living, there isn't much in it for you. I talked about that last night with Stephanie Ruhle.

U.S. "flying blind" amid shutdown-induced economic data blackout

It is day nine of the government shutdown, and Congress is no closer to breaking its stalemate – leaving U.S. investors without access to critical economic data. John Harwood and Matt Peterson discuss...

www.msnbc.com

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 4d

Anyway we're bailing out Argentina

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 5d

I had a long conversation with Warsh about that exact issue. The takeaway is that he believes by reducing the balance sheet, “you have created space to lower interest rates.” Warsh's plan for a new Treasury-Fed Accord also explicitly gives Bessent say over QT, which is politically very convenient.

Trump Fed Chair Pick: Contender Kevin Warsh Explains How He Would Overhaul the Central Bank

In Kevin Warsh’s view, the next Fed chair can reset the institution’s credibility by overhauling the way the central bank thinks about its relationship with the markets, the economy, and the rest of t...

www.barrons.com

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 5d

FT has a very good piece on what Bessent asked in Fed chair interviews. It shows that Bessent is clearly aware that ending QE may be at odds with Trump's demands for lower rates.

on.ft.com/42ydfhH

Scott Bessent grilled Fed chair candidates on rates and quantitative easing

Trump administration ends first round of interviews to find replacement for Jay Powell

on.ft.com

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 5d

I don't see this on his Truth Social feed. It's possible that he deleted something or that the timestamp is from some other time zone (so I'm missing it), but I have some concerns about whether this is real.

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 6d

WSJ is leading with *three* stories about how gold prices are exploding as investors look for way to hedge against exposure to cracks in the political system. That and old-fashioned speculation.

Screenshot of the WSJ app, showing three stories about gold’s sharp rise. Text:

=
WSJ
A New Wall Street Trade Is Powering Gold and Hitting
Currencies
Investors are pouring money into dollar alternatives like bitcoin and precious metals.
• 137 October 7 • 5 min read
CAPITAL ACCOUNT | GREG IP
Gold Rally Points to Eroding Faith in Central Banks Worldwide
In Japan, as in the U.S., a new leader wants the central bank to make government debt more bearable, which could feed inflation.
门13 October 8
• 6 min read
• LIVE
Gold Pushes Further Past $4,000
22 min ago
31 min ago
Silver Prices Eye
1980 All-Time High;
Gold Hits Another
Record
How Healthy Is the Labor Market?
Hora's What the
wsj.com
cial Data Says.
1h.
BI
Ta

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 6d

Trump Fed appointee Steve Miran today said a shrinking deficit is one of his reasons to support lower interest rates. If the Trump administration is pulling tariff revenue for WIC, farm aid, etc., then it isn't going to deficit reduction. He's going to have a tough time winning that argument.

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 6d

A large beneficiary of of DAC subsidies is Occidental Petroleum, which hopes to use the carbon it captures to help pump more oil.

heatmap.news/politics/doe...

Trump to Cancel Direct Air Capture Hubs in Texas, Louisiana

A new list of grant cancellations obtained by Heatmap includes Climeworks and Heirloom projects funded by 2021 infrastructure law.

heatmap.news

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Reposted by Matt Peterson

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 7d

Are furloughed federal employees entitled to backpay?

The short answer is yes furloughed federal employees are entitled to backpay, but the mechanism a little complicated.

And, importantly, it means the House GOP CR is insufficient for reopening the govt & needs to be amended.

Thread explaining:

Scoop: White House memo says furloughed federal workers aren't entitled to backpay

A move to deny backpay to up to 750,000 furloughed workers would dramatically escalate Trump's pressure on Democrats to end the shutdown.

www.axios.com

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