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Matt Peterson
@mattpeterson.bsky.social
4.7K followers 1.5K following 2.1K posts
Covering policymaking, economics, and financial markets for Barron’s. [email protected]
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mattpeterson.bsky.social
Diplomacy!

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
SW: Well listen. I am going to tell you something. I think, I think if we can get the Russia-Ukraine thing solved, everybody’ll be jumping for joy. YU: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, you need to solve only one problem. [laughs] SW: What? YU: Russian-Ukrainian war. SW: I know! How do we get that solved?
November 25, 2025 at 9:11 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Scott Bessent on CNBC this morning made sweeping criticisms of the regional Fed presidents. One scenario often discussed among analysts is that a Trump-controlled Fed board could decline to reappoint all the presidents when their terms expire at the end of February.
Well, the other thing I'll tell you that I find very interesting is these regional presidents were supposed to be people from the district, and it was supposed to break the New York hold on the Reserve Banks. And we've got at least three, maybe four, the Reserve Banks, where people were hired from outside the district. They don't they don't even live in their district. They commute back to New York. So these are New Yorkers. They are going out into the country and then coming back on weekends. I'm not sure that's the way the Federal Reserve was designed.
November 25, 2025 at 3:42 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Nick Timiraos nicely illustrates the Fed chair’s power—less an autocrat than a tie-breaker. Q is whether the next chair will have the same capability www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Allies of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have laid the groundwork for him to push a rate cut through a divided committee at next month's meeting even though it could draw multiple dissents. The unusual level of division inside the Fed means that, to an even greater degree than usual, the final call rests with Powell. But Kaplan, who is now at Goldman Sachs | GS T T, also understood how an official who leans against a particular action could be persuaded to support it. During his own tenure, if there were times he was only slightly at odds with Powell, "if at all possible, I'm going to try to side with the chair, understanding that none of us are smart enough to know exactly the right decision."
November 25, 2025 at 12:44 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Trump and Mamdani said they talked about Con Ed. Trump:

DJT: "We have to get Con Edison to start lowering the rates."
ZM: "Absolutely."
Stock chart of Consolidated Edison (ED), down sharply at the end of trading.
November 21, 2025 at 8:53 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Wrote a bit about Trump's Kennedy Center rant about Bessent and Powell. It matters that the president is explicitly directing the Treasury secretary to lower rates. Bessent has power here. www.barrons.com/livecoverage...
The 10-year Treasury is trading near 4.1%, down from 4.6% at the start of Trump’s term. But Trump is making it clear that he expects Bessent to go further. “The rates are too high, Scott, and if you don't get it fixed fast, I'm going to fire your ass,” the president said. His tone suggested he was joking about the firing. But where Powell and the Fed are concerned, nothing could be more serious.
November 19, 2025 at 8:58 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
The White House just blasted this out under the headline "Good News You May Have Missed"
🧑‍🎓 New foreign student enrollment at U.S. colleges and universities is down by 17% over last year: “American universities have suffered one of the sharpest ever declines in foreign enrollments in the face of tough policies from President Donald Trump, with the number of new international students falling 17 percent this year.”
November 19, 2025 at 8:14 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
What is AI good for? Movin’ dirt. My brother’s robotics company continues to do actually useful work, and I love it. www.enr.com/articles/619...
Bedrock Robotics' technology-in a partnership with Sundt Construction-is being used to automate excavators' mass earth removal for site preparation of a 130-acre Southwest U.S. manufacturing facility supporting the domestic energy market. Bedrock's autonomous systems have moved more than 65,000 cu yd of earth and rock by loading human-operated articulated rock trucks with the same workflow used in manual operations-trucks stopping to be loaded by an excavator taking scoops from a stripped pile. The integration demonstrates commercial viability for autonomous construction, Bedrock says. The technology is now installed across multiple excavator models ranging from 20- to 80-ton machines on the large site, adapting its systems from compact units to large-scale earthmovers.
November 19, 2025 at 1:19 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
If your starting point is “tariffs help workers” it’s going to be hard to end anywhere else
"Tariffs, once they're put on, are hard to take off," Raimondo said Wednesday. "No one wants to be the American president accused of letting down the American worker. Tariffs protect the American worker. And I think Al makes it more so of a politicar reality."
November 19, 2025 at 12:34 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Elon Musk has made no discernible efforts to start the third party he promised, the Times reports www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/u...
After Mr. Musk exited Washington — upset about the administration's domestic policy bill and humiliated by the withdrawn nomination of a top ally, Jared Isaacman, to lead NASA — he promised that he would start a third party to challenge Republicans. It would be called the America Party, he said, and on July 5, he told his more than 200 million followers that the America Party had been "formed." In truth, Mr. Musk then made no moves to do so. Even in the immediate aftermath of his angry pronouncements, Mr. Musk's friends detected in private conversations with him that he was not particularly aware of how expensive and complicated it would be to create a viable third party, according to four people who spoke with him at the time.
November 19, 2025 at 12:28 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Meanwhile, the crypto crash continues to erase Trump family wealth. With DJT stock trading at all-time lows, the Trumps' stake is worth $5.3 billion less than its peak, Joe Light writes. www.barrons.com/articles/djt...
The Trump family’s holdings at their peak in mid-May 2024 were worth nearly $6.5 billion. Their value has fallen by more than $5.3 billion since then. DJT stock has repeatedly hit all-time lows over the past few trading days, falling as part of a broader meltdown in the crypto market. In August, Trump Media announced it had acquired $2 billion in Bitcoin and related securities, making it one of the largest “digital asset treasury” companies, similar to Michael Saylor’s Strategy, and tying its fate to the crypto market. Since then, the bet has turned sour. Bitcoin prices on Tuesday briefly dipped below $90,000, and despite a modest rebound the asset’s gains for the year have been wiped out.
November 18, 2025 at 6:23 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
"With the digital assets market faltering, so is the wealth that President Donald Trump’s family has won from cryptocurrencies." By Joe Light.
www.barrons.com/articles/bit...
A screenshot of a line chart in greens and blues with black text. The header text reads, "Following Bitcoin Down. The Trump family has stakes in financial assets that are influenced by the price of Bitcoin." The chart tracks tracks the percentage losses of four assets since Oct. 3, 2025: Trump Media & Technology Group/DJT, American Bitcoin/BTC, Bitcoin, and World Liberty Financial Token. The line graph show all four falling in value since Oct. 3.
November 14, 2025 at 7:27 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Yes, the deficit is down, no, it's not because the Trump administration is staffed by fiscal wizards www.barrons.com/articles/tar...
much of that decline has come from the expected reduction in pandemic-era spending and from government accounting practices that pull forward savings that won’t actually take place for years, said Jessica Riedl
November 11, 2025 at 6:34 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Trump claims the U.S. would need to repay $2 trillion if the Supreme Court overturned his tariffs. He says that covers "tariff revenue and investments," which presumably includes the deals from Japan, Korea, etc. Credible estimates of tariff revenue are less than 10% of that.
The “Pay Back” Numbers being quoted by the Radical Left Lunatics, who would love to see us lose on Tariffs because of how bad it would be for our Country, are much higher than those being stated by our Fake Opposition — Opposition mainly from Foreign Countries that would do anything to be allowed to charge us Tariffs without retribution. The actual Number we would have to pay back in Tariff Revenue and Investments would be in excess of $2 Trillion Dollars, and that, in itself, would be a National Security catastrophe. Those opposed to us in the United States Supreme Court are giving low Numbers so that the Court will think it is easy to get out of this terrible situation that these Anarchists and Thugs have put us into!
November 10, 2025 at 8:18 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
For funzies, here's China, too. Also outperforming the US.
Chart labeled: "Chinese Exceptionalism." Subtitle: "U.S. stocks have done well this year, China's are doing better." The chart tracks iShares MSCI China ETF against the S&P 500 Index. The chart shows the China ETF moving higher than the S&P 500 for most of the year.
November 10, 2025 at 6:00 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
WSJ reports the recent fall in crypto hurts bitcoin treasury companies, like Strategy, which are basically leveraged bets on BTC.

Also, not in the story but important: Trump family wealth is tied up in this strategy. Eric Trump and Don Jr have significant stakes in bitcoin treasury companies.
The hottest crypto trade has turned cold. Some investors are saying “told you so,” while others are doubling down. It was the move to make for much of the year: Sell shares or borrow money, then plow the cash into bitcoin, ether and other cryptocurrencies. Investors bid up shares of these “crypto-treasury” companies, seeing them as a way to turbocharge wagers on the volatile crypto market. Michael Saylor pioneered the move in 2020 when he transformed a tiny software company, then called MicroStrategy MSTR 1.99%increase; green up pointing triangle, into a bitcoin whale now known as Strategy. But with bitcoin and ether prices now tumbling, so are shares in Strategy and its copycats. Strategy was worth around $128 billion at its peak in July; it is now worth about $70 billion.
November 9, 2025 at 3:08 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Brazilian beef is tariffed at 76.4%
While Cattle Prices have dropped substantially, the price of Boxed Beef has gone up — Therefore, you know that something is “fishy.” We will get to the bottom of it very quickly. If there is criminality, those people responsible will pay a steep price!
November 7, 2025 at 9:07 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Please enjoy Scott Bessent and Larry Kudlow explaining how tariff revenue is just a “coincident” byproduct of the president’s policy of “regulating imports.”

Sure, the president has been saying all year tariffs are making us rich, but maybe the Supreme Court won’t notice.
BESSENT: I - I was very impressed with some of them, with their, you know, obviously, broad and vast - - broad and vast, vast knowledge of legal history. Many of them had a very good understanding of the economic emergency. And many of them understood what President Trump was trying to do in terms of trying to rebalance. And I think they came away understa@ ling that the purpose of the tariffs, the - the revenue, the tremendous amounts of revenue that we are taking in is -- is coincident, and the real goal here is to rebalance our trading relationships and bring home manufacturing. KUDLOW: Yeah, I mean, to some extent -- I agre with you. To to some extent, the -- the revenues, the tariffs' revenues are a byproduct of this new approach to regulating imports. I mean, I think that's it. Now, do did they say anyming about, you know, how the revenues -- like, they're going to be very large in year one, OK? Whatever your number is, Mr. Secretary, 300 billion, 400 billion, I don't know what the right number is, how do they think - if they rule against this IEEPA, how do they think you're going to get rid of those revenues? How do they think you're going to turn them back? I mean, it would be a monstrous, l don't know, impossible task.
November 5, 2025 at 11:21 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Stocks will likely rise if the Supreme Court kills the tariffs because it’s more money in companies’ (and your) pockets.

Evidence? When he announces tariffs, stocks tend to fall.
Donald J. Trump * + @realDonaldTrump Tomorrow's United States Supreme Court case is, literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country. With a Victory, we have tremendous, but fair, Financial and National Security. Without it, we are virtually defenseless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us. Our Stock Market is consistently hitting Record Highs, and our Country has never been more respected than it is right now. A big part of this is the Economic Security created by Tariffs, and the Deals that we have negotiated because of them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! 1.31k ReTruths 3.91k Likes 11/4/25, 4:59 PM
November 4, 2025 at 10:30 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
The White House put out a new US-Japan critical minerals deal. Unlike the Australia deal signed recently, this one doesn’t include specific dollar commitments. Instead it refers vaguely to financial support and investment.

There may be more we don’t see, of course.
1. Securing supply: The Participants are intensifying their cooperative efforts to accelerate the secure supply of critical minerals and rare earths necessary to support domestic industries, including advanced technologies and their respective industrial bases, by leveraging policy tools such as the United States' and Japan's financial support mechanisms, trade measures where appropriate, and critical minerals stockpiling systems. The participants will intensify efforts to promote dialogue amongst upstream and downstream companies to facilitate the diversification of supply chains. 2. Investment in mining and processing: The Participants intend to mobilize government and private sector support including for capital and operational expenditures via grants, guarantees, loans, or equity; offtake arrangements; insurance; or regulatory facilitation.
October 28, 2025 at 2:09 AM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Going to war with American farmers because you want to help Argentina doesn't seem like great politics, but what the hell do I know?
The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil. If it weren’t for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years — Terrible! It would be nice if they would understand that, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!
October 22, 2025 at 6:16 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Is there any reason a member of the Trump administration might think that a Signal chat isn’t automatically off the record? Nope. Can’t think of anything.
A copy of Lindsey Halligan’s texts to Lawfare’s Anna Bower, according to Bower. The texts include the following message, from Halligan: “It's obvious the whole convo is off record. There's disappearing messages and it's on signal. What is your story? You never even told me about a story.”
October 20, 2025 at 11:33 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Bloomberg has some details on private-sector moves to support the peso. These efforts are plainly not sufficient. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
As part of the effort to prop up the Argentine currency, Citigroup Inc. sold pesos to the Federal Reserve on Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter. Banco Santander SA has also continued to buy pesos in Argentina’s local market on behalf of the Treasury, another person with direct knowledge of the matter said. It wasn’t clear how much was bought or sold by either institution to date.
October 17, 2025 at 4:42 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
China is deliberately goading Trump into measures that tank the stock market, knowing that his fixation on the market will drive him to capitulate, WSJ reports www.wsj.com/world/china/...
In its trade standoff with Washington, Beijing thinks it has found America's Achilles' heel: President Trump's fixation on the stock market. China's leader, Xi Jinping, is betting that the U.S. economy can't absorb a prolonged trade conflict with the world's second-largest economy, according to people close to Beijing's decision-making. China is holding a firm line because of its conviction, the people said, that an escalating trade war will tank markets, as it did in April after Trump announced his so-called Liberation Day tariffs, prompting Beijing to hit back. China expects that the prospect of another market meltdown ultimately will force Trump to negotiate at an expected summit with Xi late this month, the people said.
October 15, 2025 at 10:10 AM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Don't look now but Trump just freaked out the market again by continuing to escalate the trade war.
I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.
October 14, 2025 at 7:48 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
China put Trump in a corner. Every way out hurts. www.barrons.com/articles/chi...
China's latest threat to clamp down on exports of rare earths appears to have blindsided President Donald Trump. The Chinese plan "came out of nowhere," Trump said Friday in a social media post. "Nobody has ever seen anything like this." Beijing's escalation of the trade fight has put the Trump administration on the backfoot at a moment of weakness. China's actions show that the U.S. is vulnerable to economic pressure, and China has forced the administration to choose between further escalation or a humiliating climbdown.
October 10, 2025 at 9:27 PM