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Brian Weatherson

Brian Weatherson is the Marshall Weinberg Professor of Philosophy at the University of Michigan. He specializes in epistemology and… more

H-index: 31
Philosophy 47%
Psychology 20%
Just received from a colleague: looks like Penn is going to join the universities refusing the extortionary Trump "compact". I do not regret to inform you that we are going to win
screenshot of an email saying:

"To the Penn Community:

 

For 285 years, Penn has been anchored and guided by continuous self-improvement, using education as a ladder for opportunity, and advancing discoveries that serve our community, our nation, and the world.

 

Since receiving the Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education on October 1, I have sought input from faculty, alumni, trustees, students, staff and others who care deeply about Penn. The goal was to ensure that our response reflected our values and the perspectives of our broad community.

 

Earlier today, I informed the U.S. Department of Education that Penn respectfully declines to sign the proposed Compact. As requested, we also provided focused feedback highlighting areas of existing alignment as well as substantive concerns.

 

At Penn, we are committed to merit-based achievement and accountability. The long-standing partnership between American higher education and the federal government has greatly benefited society and our nation. Shared goals and investment in talent and ideas will turn possibility into progress.

 

I am grateful to the Penn community for your thoughtful input and for what you bring to our University and our missions every day.

 

Sincerely,

 

J. Larry Jameson, MD, PhD
President
University of Pennsylvania"
This doesn’t work with US voters but it seems to go over ok with US consumers. Getting more “Australian-style” products in the supermarkets here.
I also reckon you could boost the popularity of ~ any policy with the UK public by adding the prefix “Australian style”.

Australian style national ID cards. Australian style pensions. Australian style healthcare system.

It’s sunnier and they’re better at sport so their policies must be better too.
I also reckon you could boost the popularity of ~ any policy with the UK public by adding the prefix “Australian style”.

Australian style national ID cards. Australian style pensions. Australian style healthcare system.

It’s sunnier and they’re better at sport so their policies must be better too.
It feels more like a college intern with Dan Campbell’s coffee habits, but that might not make a difference to how you should treat it.
I was looking at some Scottish cause of death data yesterday and the extent to which transport accident deaths in young men have all but disappeared is pretty remarkable.

Nice to find a good news story in this data for a change.
A lexis diagram - essentially a heatmap showing rates of death from transport accidents by age and over time from 2001-2024 in Scotland. For men in the 2000s there was a clear peak in deaths at ages 15-35 (plus a smaller one in the oldest age groups). But around 2010 this basically disappeared, and now all age groups have similarly, much lower, rates of transport accident deaths. For women the pattern is similar, albeit at a much lower level, except that in the early 2000s there were more deaths in older, rather than younger adults.
Also, eyeballing that chart, it feels the drop in philosophy happened later. I think it's more tied to the fall in law school applications than the earlier drop in the other humanities.
In general, you'd expect falling numbers of majors to meant falling enrollments. And having lots of majors feels somehow a safer starting point than having lots of people in other majors taking your classes. But there are interesting exceptions. (Especially if you work in one of the exceptions.)
On the one hand, this is a very bad sign.

On the other, it's consistent with things being healthy. At UM, the number of philosophy majors is close to an all time low. But the number of people taking philosophy classes is way up on a decade ago because of the Cog Sci and PPE majors.
Humanities majors in free fall in the US: Since 2008, English has declined from 3.8% to 1.7% of Bachelor's degrees awarded, history from 2.5% to 1.2%, foreign lang/lit from 1.9% to 0.9%, and philosophy from 0.6% to 0.4%. 22% of philosophy BAs are awarded by just 20 universities.

Reposted by Brian Weatherson

Humanities majors in free fall in the US: Since 2008, English has declined from 3.8% to 1.7% of Bachelor's degrees awarded, history from 2.5% to 1.2%, foreign lang/lit from 1.9% to 0.9%, and philosophy from 0.6% to 0.4%. 22% of philosophy BAs are awarded by just 20 universities.
It was also striking to me how much the Rory Sutherland joke Dan quotes wouldn't land in Australia. The government does marketing all the time. Scott Morrison rode a gov't marketing job all the way to being PM. The most memorable ads of the 80s/90s were by the gov't.

www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...
TAC Classics - YouTube
As 1989 drew to a close the road toll was mounting; so too was public outrage at the carnage on Victorian roads. By years end 763 people had lost their lives...
www.youtube.com
It's an old point, but I really don't think we should be choosing between the 55th and 65th placed teams on this table to cheer for.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
List of countries by life expectancy - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
I also liked Breakneck, but thought the story it told would be complicated if you looked at the details of how my home country worked, so I very much liked this review.
If their reply to No Kings is Kings are Good, Actually, then I like our chances in the messaging wars.
Bessent: "This crazy No Kings rally this weekend, which is gonna be the farthest left, the hardest core, the most unhinged in the Democratic Party, which is a big title. No Kings equals no paychecks."
Bessent: "This crazy No Kings rally this weekend, which is gonna be the farthest left, the hardest core, the most unhinged in the Democratic Party, which is a big title. No Kings equals no paychecks."
It's an even more fun style in Scotland, where the Great Figures change from town to town depending on what the dominant bank in that town is.
There has been a flurry of interesting work in the journals recently on welfare aggregation in infinite worlds. Most of the discussion has revolved around variants of the St Petersburg paradox. This note looks at what happens if you add the two envelope paradox.

brian.weatherson.org/quarto/blog/...
Infinite Worlds and the Two Envelope Paradox – Brian Weatherson
brian.weatherson.org
Maybe this ends once Madrid or PSG buys a Championship team. I hear a couple of teams in Sheffield could use some outside investment.
"The liberty and security of our fellow citizens is our great object, and not the prompt execution of the laws. Indecision, delay, blunders, nay villainous actions in the administration of government, are trifles compared to legalizing the full exertion of a tyrannical disposition."

Reposted by Brian Weatherson

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Back around 2000 I did a version of this for the Dow going back to the 1930s and it showed the opposite pattern. Iirc, only owning after up days was better than buy and hold.

I figured if I could work this out so could everyone else, so it wouldn’t continue. Didn’t expect it to reverse though.
one of the all-time great stats via Bespoke. only owning on days after down days smokes only owning on days after up days

Reposted by Brian Weatherson

one of the all-time great stats via Bespoke. only owning on days after down days smokes only owning on days after up days
If the Lib Dems can't make real gains at a time when the combined Lab+Con vote is around 40, feels like they may as well pack it in.

It looks to me (from a great distance away) that they've got a chance to be the winners from the next few years, but if they can't take this chance, when will they?
Among the many possibilities for the next few years, the scenario of swapping one pair of dominant parties (Lab and Con) for another (Reform and LD) is intriguing, under-discussed and, in English elections, not entirely implausible either (several county councils made this leap in May)
Aggregate Result of the 122 Council By-Elections (for 125 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:

RFM: 47 (+40)
LDM: 32 (+10)
CON: 13 (-15)
LAB: 12 (-30)
GRN: 11 (+3)
Ind: 5 (-4)
Local: 3 (-3)
SNP: 1 (-1)
PLC: 1 (=)

Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...

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