Win Monroe
@winmonroe.bsky.social
Another economist.
Views and bad hot takes are my own, if even that.
Likes & RTs =/= endorsements.
Views and bad hot takes are my own, if even that.
Likes & RTs =/= endorsements.
Skimming back over passages and excerpts this morning. Truly one of the greatest.
November 30, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Skimming back over passages and excerpts this morning. Truly one of the greatest.
Reposted by Win Monroe
Not on the clock today but looks like a pretty active day for borrowing cash from the Fed on the last day of the month via the Standing Repo Facility, which is something officials say they welcome. The next liquidity test comes on year end, as the Fed weighs fresh technical bond buying.
November 29, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Not on the clock today but looks like a pretty active day for borrowing cash from the Fed on the last day of the month via the Standing Repo Facility, which is something officials say they welcome. The next liquidity test comes on year end, as the Fed weighs fresh technical bond buying.
substance of this aside, must be so satisfying to be a researcher and then have someone write "I have extended their analysis to another country and find a similar picture."
www.ft.com/content/c17a...
www.ft.com/content/c17a...
The housing crisis is pushing Gen Z into crypto and economic nihilism
Locked out of home ownership, young adults are turning to risky financial behaviour
www.ft.com
November 28, 2025 at 11:22 PM
substance of this aside, must be so satisfying to be a researcher and then have someone write "I have extended their analysis to another country and find a similar picture."
www.ft.com/content/c17a...
www.ft.com/content/c17a...
Reposted by Win Monroe
Reposted by Win Monroe
One day, these will be the incredibly dark moments we read about in the history books.
November 28, 2025 at 5:52 PM
One day, these will be the incredibly dark moments we read about in the history books.
Reposted by Win Monroe
So many beautiful economics papers will follow from this arbitrary kink in the tax code.
Homeowners rush to price properties just under ‘mansion tax’ thresholds on.ft.com/3Ma4816
Homeowners rush to price properties just under ‘mansion tax’ thresholds
Estate agents say ‘bunching’ practice likely to pick up pace ahead of start of surcharge in April 2028
on.ft.com
November 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
So many beautiful economics papers will follow from this arbitrary kink in the tax code.
Reposted by Win Monroe
November 27, 2025 at 3:36 PM
All of the AI pop ups in stuff now is so annoying. I'm trying to edit or navigate a document, slides, whatever and constantly programs are like "Want copilot to edit?" "Ask AI for help??" "AI SUMMARY??" "HELP?! HELP!! HELP!?!?!"
November 27, 2025 at 2:19 PM
All of the AI pop ups in stuff now is so annoying. I'm trying to edit or navigate a document, slides, whatever and constantly programs are like "Want copilot to edit?" "Ask AI for help??" "AI SUMMARY??" "HELP?! HELP!! HELP!?!?!"
Reposted by Win Monroe
I love how the obvious response to this - tone down rhetoric and anti-immigration policy - is both essentially economically costless and also absolutely anathema to Number 10 strategists.
The fundamental political-economy for the government is that is objectively implementing a soft left economic policy on speed whilst being hated by lots of left leaning people because of its other policies and rhetoric.
November 27, 2025 at 10:17 AM
I love how the obvious response to this - tone down rhetoric and anti-immigration policy - is both essentially economically costless and also absolutely anathema to Number 10 strategists.
Reposted by Win Monroe
Apparently the number of houses a person can have before admitting that they're not actually hard-done by is n+1: buried near the end of this piece, we discover our fearful 1930s house-owner owns *another* house as well from which they receive a rental income.
November 27, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Apparently the number of houses a person can have before admitting that they're not actually hard-done by is n+1: buried near the end of this piece, we discover our fearful 1930s house-owner owns *another* house as well from which they receive a rental income.
My initial take on the budget is that I changed my pfp at the right time
November 26, 2025 at 5:40 PM
My initial take on the budget is that I changed my pfp at the right time
Am I reading this correctly? Freeze in income thresholds only starts in 2028, so we have a slightly stimulative fiscal stance until then?
November 26, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Am I reading this correctly? Freeze in income thresholds only starts in 2028, so we have a slightly stimulative fiscal stance until then?
Interesting bit of dynamic fiscal design I hadn't clocked. In the past inflation up -> rates up -> fiscal position worse. Now income thresholds pushing in the other direction. Not sure that's great macro policy, but implications for fiscal flexibility are interesting.
There's an interesting political economy angle to the fact that, with basically every single tax parameter frozen in cash terms (and personal tax thresholds now frozen to 2031), inflation is extremely beneficial for the public finances.
Rachel Reeves can count herself (at least a bit) lucky. OBR productivity downgrade would have knocked £16 billion off tax receipts. But she was saved by £32 billion of *extra* receipts from higher inflation and a shift to more tax-rich growth (lower profits, higher wages).
November 26, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Interesting bit of dynamic fiscal design I hadn't clocked. In the past inflation up -> rates up -> fiscal position worse. Now income thresholds pushing in the other direction. Not sure that's great macro policy, but implications for fiscal flexibility are interesting.
Reposted by Win Monroe
There's an interesting political economy angle to the fact that, with basically every single tax parameter frozen in cash terms (and personal tax thresholds now frozen to 2031), inflation is extremely beneficial for the public finances.
Rachel Reeves can count herself (at least a bit) lucky. OBR productivity downgrade would have knocked £16 billion off tax receipts. But she was saved by £32 billion of *extra* receipts from higher inflation and a shift to more tax-rich growth (lower profits, higher wages).
November 26, 2025 at 1:31 PM
There's an interesting political economy angle to the fact that, with basically every single tax parameter frozen in cash terms (and personal tax thresholds now frozen to 2031), inflation is extremely beneficial for the public finances.
Reposted by Win Monroe
“The biggest single measure is the freeze to personal tax thresholds which will mean a big tax increase for most people.
“More people being brought into tax, people paying higher tax when they’re paying it.”
📺 @helenmiller.bsky.social responds to #Budget2025 #PoliticsLive
“More people being brought into tax, people paying higher tax when they’re paying it.”
📺 @helenmiller.bsky.social responds to #Budget2025 #PoliticsLive
November 26, 2025 at 1:59 PM
“The biggest single measure is the freeze to personal tax thresholds which will mean a big tax increase for most people.
“More people being brought into tax, people paying higher tax when they’re paying it.”
📺 @helenmiller.bsky.social responds to #Budget2025 #PoliticsLive
“More people being brought into tax, people paying higher tax when they’re paying it.”
📺 @helenmiller.bsky.social responds to #Budget2025 #PoliticsLive
Reposted by Win Monroe
The OBR will now only assess performance against the fiscal rules once per year (in the autumn) but will continue to produce two forecasts each year. Relies on the world understanding that if the OBR forecast a current budget deficit in the spring, it's not technically a breach.
November 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
The OBR will now only assess performance against the fiscal rules once per year (in the autumn) but will continue to produce two forecasts each year. Relies on the world understanding that if the OBR forecast a current budget deficit in the spring, it's not technically a breach.
Good.
The two-child cap pushed half of children in larger families into poverty. Today, Labour abolishes it.
I stood for office to stop drawing charts and start changing them. This change will see the biggest drop in child poverty of any parliament on record.
Know what that is? Hope.
I stood for office to stop drawing charts and start changing them. This change will see the biggest drop in child poverty of any parliament on record.
Know what that is? Hope.
November 26, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Good.
Reposted by Win Monroe
This is very good and works just as well as a post-budget take
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 26, 2025 at 2:01 PM
This is very good and works just as well as a post-budget take
Good read here, as always, on a recent leveraged trade in gilts
What even are par-par asset swaps, and why won’t they melt the gilt market today?
on.ft.com/43S8Vul
on.ft.com/43S8Vul
Don’t worry about another leveraged gilt market blow-up
Keep calm and carry on
on.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Good read here, as always, on a recent leveraged trade in gilts
⚰️⚰️
November 26, 2025 at 12:41 PM
⚰️⚰️
Back in London today, just for the budget ofc
November 26, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Back in London today, just for the budget ofc
Reposted by Win Monroe
I hope someone checks in with these guys today to see how they’ll cope with the Budget
November 26, 2025 at 8:21 AM
I hope someone checks in with these guys today to see how they’ll cope with the Budget
Reposted by Win Monroe
Bill Nelson on the Fed: "TOMOs needed Friday and Monday"
November 25, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Bill Nelson on the Fed: "TOMOs needed Friday and Monday"