Duncan Lamont
@duncanlamont2.bsky.social
I post cool charts about markets and investing. Scottish and into running. Head of Strategic Research @Schroders. Not investment advice
Pinned
Duncan Lamont
@duncanlamont2.bsky.social
· May 15
Why cash is riskier than stock market investing
We need an entire rethink of how we talk about risk.
www.schroders.com
⚠️I’ve written a two-footed studs-up challenge of an article about something I feel strongly about:
the way we talk about risk is all wrong
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
the way we talk about risk is all wrong
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
Reposted by Duncan Lamont
From @DuncanLamont2
10% drops happen in more years than not, 20% falls happen once every 4 years @Schroders
10% drops happen in more years than not, 20% falls happen once every 4 years @Schroders
November 26, 2025 at 1:57 PM
From @DuncanLamont2
10% drops happen in more years than not, 20% falls happen once every 4 years @Schroders
10% drops happen in more years than not, 20% falls happen once every 4 years @Schroders
Absolute banter example
The OBR has analysed how likely it is that an economist could be replaced by AI 🤣
TLDR they reckon it complements rather than substitutes. Their jobs are safe!
The OBR has analysed how likely it is that an economist could be replaced by AI 🤣
TLDR they reckon it complements rather than substitutes. Their jobs are safe!
November 26, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Absolute banter example
The OBR has analysed how likely it is that an economist could be replaced by AI 🤣
TLDR they reckon it complements rather than substitutes. Their jobs are safe!
The OBR has analysed how likely it is that an economist could be replaced by AI 🤣
TLDR they reckon it complements rather than substitutes. Their jobs are safe!
The cut to productivity growth really is a big one
Now 1.5% in 2030, previously 1.8%
Trend productivity growth now only 1.0% down from 1.3%
And this *includes* expected gains from AI
Now 1.5% in 2030, previously 1.8%
Trend productivity growth now only 1.0% down from 1.3%
And this *includes* expected gains from AI
November 26, 2025 at 1:13 PM
The cut to productivity growth really is a big one
Now 1.5% in 2030, previously 1.8%
Trend productivity growth now only 1.0% down from 1.3%
And this *includes* expected gains from AI
Now 1.5% in 2030, previously 1.8%
Trend productivity growth now only 1.0% down from 1.3%
And this *includes* expected gains from AI
I hope someone checks in with these guys today to see how they’ll cope with the Budget
November 26, 2025 at 8:21 AM
I hope someone checks in with these guys today to see how they’ll cope with the Budget
Anyone else at the Investment Association’s Scotland conference in Edinburgh today?
November 25, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Anyone else at the Investment Association’s Scotland conference in Edinburgh today?
I came second in a hilly, wet, muddy 10k race today. Not second for an old fogey, but outright second
Feels pretty good!
Fell on my arse and skidded down one slope feet first. Still not sure if that lost or bought me time
Feels pretty good!
Fell on my arse and skidded down one slope feet first. Still not sure if that lost or bought me time
November 23, 2025 at 9:54 PM
I came second in a hilly, wet, muddy 10k race today. Not second for an old fogey, but outright second
Feels pretty good!
Fell on my arse and skidded down one slope feet first. Still not sure if that lost or bought me time
Feels pretty good!
Fell on my arse and skidded down one slope feet first. Still not sure if that lost or bought me time
Am I in the minority in being into sports but just not caring about F1?
Granted I haven’t watched it for years but last time I did the only exciting parts where the start and the pit stops
Convince me
Granted I haven’t watched it for years but last time I did the only exciting parts where the start and the pit stops
Convince me
November 23, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Am I in the minority in being into sports but just not caring about F1?
Granted I haven’t watched it for years but last time I did the only exciting parts where the start and the pit stops
Convince me
Granted I haven’t watched it for years but last time I did the only exciting parts where the start and the pit stops
Convince me
Reposted by Duncan Lamont
There is a post circulating on Bluesky encouraging the moving of a frozen turkey straight into a pot of hot oil. We are combating this misinformation the best way we know how - through the power of dance music.
November 23, 2025 at 1:31 PM
There is a post circulating on Bluesky encouraging the moving of a frozen turkey straight into a pot of hot oil. We are combating this misinformation the best way we know how - through the power of dance music.
Well that was unexpectedly good
November 22, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Well that was unexpectedly good
Big tech have better credit metrics than other investment grade borrowers
Leverage is lower and interest cover higher
So while they’re clearly leveraging up to pay for AI capex, the starting point is solid
History suggests it could take some time for fundamental vulnerabilities to build
Leverage is lower and interest cover higher
So while they’re clearly leveraging up to pay for AI capex, the starting point is solid
History suggests it could take some time for fundamental vulnerabilities to build
November 19, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Big tech have better credit metrics than other investment grade borrowers
Leverage is lower and interest cover higher
So while they’re clearly leveraging up to pay for AI capex, the starting point is solid
History suggests it could take some time for fundamental vulnerabilities to build
Leverage is lower and interest cover higher
So while they’re clearly leveraging up to pay for AI capex, the starting point is solid
History suggests it could take some time for fundamental vulnerabilities to build
The last time Scotland was at a World Cup I watched the opening match against Brazil in my mum’s living room with my mates and a crate of Tennents
Scotland scored to make it 1-1
Everyone ran into the street screaming, neighbours hugging each other
Can still remember that feeling. Here. We. Go.
Scotland scored to make it 1-1
Everyone ran into the street screaming, neighbours hugging each other
Can still remember that feeling. Here. We. Go.
November 18, 2025 at 10:48 PM
The last time Scotland was at a World Cup I watched the opening match against Brazil in my mum’s living room with my mates and a crate of Tennents
Scotland scored to make it 1-1
Everyone ran into the street screaming, neighbours hugging each other
Can still remember that feeling. Here. We. Go.
Scotland scored to make it 1-1
Everyone ran into the street screaming, neighbours hugging each other
Can still remember that feeling. Here. We. Go.
Is there a relationship between valuation multiples and returns on capital, within sectors?
Yes in most but not all sectors but there are lots of individual company exceptions. Big tech are hoping they will be one of those exceptions…
Yes in most but not all sectors but there are lots of individual company exceptions. Big tech are hoping they will be one of those exceptions…
Here are the sector charts, which exclude Tesla as it’s off the scale…
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Is there a relationship between valuation multiples and returns on capital, within sectors?
Yes in most but not all sectors but there are lots of individual company exceptions. Big tech are hoping they will be one of those exceptions…
Yes in most but not all sectors but there are lots of individual company exceptions. Big tech are hoping they will be one of those exceptions…
Capex from big tech ⬆️
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
November 17, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Capex from big tech ⬆️
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
“A Civil Service Pension with an employer contribution of 28.97%”
Two things: 1. Kerching!
2. I would hope that anyone taking this job would know better than to quote anything to two decimal places
I would probably even bring this detail up in the interview, but maybe that’s just me…
Two things: 1. Kerching!
2. I would hope that anyone taking this job would know better than to quote anything to two decimal places
I would probably even bring this detail up in the interview, but maybe that’s just me…
Chief Economic Advisor, HM Treasury - a fantastic and extremely challenging job, following in the footsteps of Keynes..
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
Quick Check Needed
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk
November 15, 2025 at 10:45 AM
“A Civil Service Pension with an employer contribution of 28.97%”
Two things: 1. Kerching!
2. I would hope that anyone taking this job would know better than to quote anything to two decimal places
I would probably even bring this detail up in the interview, but maybe that’s just me…
Two things: 1. Kerching!
2. I would hope that anyone taking this job would know better than to quote anything to two decimal places
I would probably even bring this detail up in the interview, but maybe that’s just me…
Reposted by Duncan Lamont
Even a simple factoid like this gets overlooked, but it was not long ago that *everyone* directly knew multiple examples of people taken away by this at something preposterous like age 22
November 10, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Even a simple factoid like this gets overlooked, but it was not long ago that *everyone* directly knew multiple examples of people taken away by this at something preposterous like age 22
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: this is soaring in recent years, but what is it?
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
November 7, 2025 at 8:17 AM
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: this is soaring in recent years, but what is it?
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
New disaster movie just landed
November 5, 2025 at 12:02 PM
New disaster movie just landed
I don’t even mind that it’s the start of November. A bit of classy Christmas cheer, with lights reflecting in the puddles, put a smile on my face
November 4, 2025 at 4:51 PM
I don’t even mind that it’s the start of November. A bit of classy Christmas cheer, with lights reflecting in the puddles, put a smile on my face
Might ask compliance if I can use that instead of the usual “past performance is not a guide to the future and may not be repeated”
Adding “destiny” makes it sound way cooler
Adding “destiny” makes it sound way cooler
UK's Chancellor Reeves: Forecasts are based on past data; past isn't our destiny.
November 4, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Might ask compliance if I can use that instead of the usual “past performance is not a guide to the future and may not be repeated”
Adding “destiny” makes it sound way cooler
Adding “destiny” makes it sound way cooler
Wow, big changes in comms when BoE announces rate decision on Thurs
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
November 3, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Wow, big changes in comms when BoE announces rate decision on Thurs
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
Read the purple question from Junior Trivial Pursuit and see if you’d have got it right
Answer is in the RH pane
Answer is in the RH pane
November 2, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Read the purple question from Junior Trivial Pursuit and see if you’d have got it right
Answer is in the RH pane
Answer is in the RH pane
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: these two rival companies are household names. Their fortunes have diverged. Who are they?
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
October 31, 2025 at 10:20 AM
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: these two rival companies are household names. Their fortunes have diverged. Who are they?
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
How to reduce car accidents: reintroduce wolves
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
October 30, 2025 at 2:34 PM
How to reduce car accidents: reintroduce wolves
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity