Duncan Lamont
@duncanlamont2.bsky.social
I post cool charts about markets and investing. Scottish and into running. Head of Strategic Research @Schroders. Not investment advice
Pinned
Duncan Lamont
@duncanlamont2.bsky.social
· May 15
Why cash is riskier than stock market investing
We need an entire rethink of how we talk about risk.
www.schroders.com
⚠️I’ve written a two-footed studs-up challenge of an article about something I feel strongly about:
the way we talk about risk is all wrong
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
the way we talk about risk is all wrong
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
Is there a relationship between valuation multiples and returns on capital, within sectors?
Yes in most but not all sectors but there are lots of individual company exceptions. Big tech are hoping they will be one of those exceptions…
Yes in most but not all sectors but there are lots of individual company exceptions. Big tech are hoping they will be one of those exceptions…
Here are the sector charts, which exclude Tesla as it’s off the scale…
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Is there a relationship between valuation multiples and returns on capital, within sectors?
Yes in most but not all sectors but there are lots of individual company exceptions. Big tech are hoping they will be one of those exceptions…
Yes in most but not all sectors but there are lots of individual company exceptions. Big tech are hoping they will be one of those exceptions…
Capex from big tech ⬆️
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
November 17, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Capex from big tech ⬆️
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
“A Civil Service Pension with an employer contribution of 28.97%”
Two things: 1. Kerching!
2. I would hope that anyone taking this job would know better than to quote anything to two decimal places
I would probably even bring this detail up in the interview, but maybe that’s just me…
Two things: 1. Kerching!
2. I would hope that anyone taking this job would know better than to quote anything to two decimal places
I would probably even bring this detail up in the interview, but maybe that’s just me…
Chief Economic Advisor, HM Treasury - a fantastic and extremely challenging job, following in the footsteps of Keynes..
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi...
Quick Check Needed
www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk
November 15, 2025 at 10:45 AM
“A Civil Service Pension with an employer contribution of 28.97%”
Two things: 1. Kerching!
2. I would hope that anyone taking this job would know better than to quote anything to two decimal places
I would probably even bring this detail up in the interview, but maybe that’s just me…
Two things: 1. Kerching!
2. I would hope that anyone taking this job would know better than to quote anything to two decimal places
I would probably even bring this detail up in the interview, but maybe that’s just me…
Reposted by Duncan Lamont
Even a simple factoid like this gets overlooked, but it was not long ago that *everyone* directly knew multiple examples of people taken away by this at something preposterous like age 22
November 10, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Even a simple factoid like this gets overlooked, but it was not long ago that *everyone* directly knew multiple examples of people taken away by this at something preposterous like age 22
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: this is soaring in recent years, but what is it?
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
November 7, 2025 at 8:17 AM
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: this is soaring in recent years, but what is it?
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
New disaster movie just landed
November 5, 2025 at 12:02 PM
New disaster movie just landed
I don’t even mind that it’s the start of November. A bit of classy Christmas cheer, with lights reflecting in the puddles, put a smile on my face
November 4, 2025 at 4:51 PM
I don’t even mind that it’s the start of November. A bit of classy Christmas cheer, with lights reflecting in the puddles, put a smile on my face
Might ask compliance if I can use that instead of the usual “past performance is not a guide to the future and may not be repeated”
Adding “destiny” makes it sound way cooler
Adding “destiny” makes it sound way cooler
UK's Chancellor Reeves: Forecasts are based on past data; past isn't our destiny.
November 4, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Might ask compliance if I can use that instead of the usual “past performance is not a guide to the future and may not be repeated”
Adding “destiny” makes it sound way cooler
Adding “destiny” makes it sound way cooler
Wow, big changes in comms when BoE announces rate decision on Thurs
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
November 3, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Wow, big changes in comms when BoE announces rate decision on Thurs
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
Read the purple question from Junior Trivial Pursuit and see if you’d have got it right
Answer is in the RH pane
Answer is in the RH pane
November 2, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Read the purple question from Junior Trivial Pursuit and see if you’d have got it right
Answer is in the RH pane
Answer is in the RH pane
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: these two rival companies are household names. Their fortunes have diverged. Who are they?
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
October 31, 2025 at 10:20 AM
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: these two rival companies are household names. Their fortunes have diverged. Who are they?
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
How to reduce car accidents: reintroduce wolves
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
October 30, 2025 at 2:34 PM
How to reduce car accidents: reintroduce wolves
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: I am a widely followed asset class. What am I?
To make it a bit trickier, I've shown it in euro terms
To make it a bit trickier, I've shown it in euro terms
October 24, 2025 at 8:47 AM
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: I am a widely followed asset class. What am I?
To make it a bit trickier, I've shown it in euro terms
To make it a bit trickier, I've shown it in euro terms
Copenhagen observation: bikes bikes bikes!
No lycra or a dropped handlebar to be seen, just lots of normal people, wearing clothes for work, cycle-commuting, even though it’s a drizzly day
Love to see it
No lycra or a dropped handlebar to be seen, just lots of normal people, wearing clothes for work, cycle-commuting, even though it’s a drizzly day
Love to see it
October 23, 2025 at 8:22 AM
Copenhagen observation: bikes bikes bikes!
No lycra or a dropped handlebar to be seen, just lots of normal people, wearing clothes for work, cycle-commuting, even though it’s a drizzly day
Love to see it
No lycra or a dropped handlebar to be seen, just lots of normal people, wearing clothes for work, cycle-commuting, even though it’s a drizzly day
Love to see it
Genuinely, I would take this, even if I wasn’t contemplating revenge
It’s my all time favourite and I’d happily read it multiple times
Could maybe re-attempt Bertrand Russell’s history of western philosophy which I gave up on
And an encyclopaedia or the bible. As they’re both long
It’s my all time favourite and I’d happily read it multiple times
Could maybe re-attempt Bertrand Russell’s history of western philosophy which I gave up on
And an encyclopaedia or the bible. As they’re both long
October 22, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Genuinely, I would take this, even if I wasn’t contemplating revenge
It’s my all time favourite and I’d happily read it multiple times
Could maybe re-attempt Bertrand Russell’s history of western philosophy which I gave up on
And an encyclopaedia or the bible. As they’re both long
It’s my all time favourite and I’d happily read it multiple times
Could maybe re-attempt Bertrand Russell’s history of western philosophy which I gave up on
And an encyclopaedia or the bible. As they’re both long
What could a further substantial weakening in the dollar mean for inflation, growth, interest rates/bond yields in US, Europe, China and EM ex-China?
Sorry about the small font but worth something zooming in and reading!
From here:
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
Sorry about the small font but worth something zooming in and reading!
From here:
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
October 22, 2025 at 8:23 AM
What could a further substantial weakening in the dollar mean for inflation, growth, interest rates/bond yields in US, Europe, China and EM ex-China?
Sorry about the small font but worth something zooming in and reading!
From here:
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
Sorry about the small font but worth something zooming in and reading!
From here:
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
Reposted by Duncan Lamont
Tell me you didn’t ask anyone in Scotland about your product and without telling me you didn’t ask anyone in Scotland about your product name…
JobbyLobby - Job Boards Made Easy
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jobbylobby.com
October 21, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Tell me you didn’t ask anyone in Scotland about your product and without telling me you didn’t ask anyone in Scotland about your product name…
Hotel buffet in Oslo has “brown cheese”. Looked like a massive log of chocolate. Had to try it
@robinwigglesworth.ft.com opinions please
@robinwigglesworth.ft.com opinions please
October 21, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Hotel buffet in Oslo has “brown cheese”. Looked like a massive log of chocolate. Had to try it
@robinwigglesworth.ft.com opinions please
@robinwigglesworth.ft.com opinions please
🚨This is non-negotiable: if you’re in Helsinki you have to go to this sauna/swim in the sea place
4 varieties of sauna, with Finns liberally dousing the coals/logs in water
Then descend a ladder into the bracing Baltic sea
Possibly the best €26 I’ve ever spent
www.loylyhelsinki.fi/en/public-sa...
4 varieties of sauna, with Finns liberally dousing the coals/logs in water
Then descend a ladder into the bracing Baltic sea
Possibly the best €26 I’ve ever spent
www.loylyhelsinki.fi/en/public-sa...
Public Sauna | Löyly
www.loylyhelsinki.fi
October 19, 2025 at 6:02 PM
🚨This is non-negotiable: if you’re in Helsinki you have to go to this sauna/swim in the sea place
4 varieties of sauna, with Finns liberally dousing the coals/logs in water
Then descend a ladder into the bracing Baltic sea
Possibly the best €26 I’ve ever spent
www.loylyhelsinki.fi/en/public-sa...
4 varieties of sauna, with Finns liberally dousing the coals/logs in water
Then descend a ladder into the bracing Baltic sea
Possibly the best €26 I’ve ever spent
www.loylyhelsinki.fi/en/public-sa...
One is an infinite amount of money equal to the integers
The other is an infinite amount of money equal to the reals
The other is an infinite amount of money equal to the reals
Why would a company that claims to be on the verge of basically unlimited profit mess around with gross-out videos and porn?
Spicy ChatGPT Is One Way to Make More Money
OpenAI’s move resembles an earlier decision by Facebook. Plus: Robinhood bets on Gen Z.
bloom.bg
October 17, 2025 at 6:49 PM
One is an infinite amount of money equal to the integers
The other is an infinite amount of money equal to the reals
The other is an infinite amount of money equal to the reals
The % of US HY market that is secured debt has doubled to 34% since 2020
Why? Issuers rewarded with higher credit rating/lower credit spread/cheaper cost of debt
Investors:
Secured bonds have higher recovery rates on default ✅
But mostly riskier borrowers who do this (needs must) so be wary ❌
Why? Issuers rewarded with higher credit rating/lower credit spread/cheaper cost of debt
Investors:
Secured bonds have higher recovery rates on default ✅
But mostly riskier borrowers who do this (needs must) so be wary ❌
October 16, 2025 at 9:57 AM
The % of US HY market that is secured debt has doubled to 34% since 2020
Why? Issuers rewarded with higher credit rating/lower credit spread/cheaper cost of debt
Investors:
Secured bonds have higher recovery rates on default ✅
But mostly riskier borrowers who do this (needs must) so be wary ❌
Why? Issuers rewarded with higher credit rating/lower credit spread/cheaper cost of debt
Investors:
Secured bonds have higher recovery rates on default ✅
But mostly riskier borrowers who do this (needs must) so be wary ❌
Should investors welcome the dramatic rise in secured corporate bond issuance vs the historical norm of unsecured? Not so fast
www.linkedin.com/posts/duncan...
www.linkedin.com/posts/duncan...
Secured high yield bond issuance | Duncan Lamont
Should investors welcome the dramatic rise in secured corporate bond issuance vs the historical norm of unsecured? Not so fast
– at an issuer-level, secured bonds have 2 notches better credit ratings...
www.linkedin.com
October 15, 2025 at 8:37 AM
Should investors welcome the dramatic rise in secured corporate bond issuance vs the historical norm of unsecured? Not so fast
www.linkedin.com/posts/duncan...
www.linkedin.com/posts/duncan...
Never seen such chaos in a bookshop
October 14, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Never seen such chaos in a bookshop
This week, I won a race (5k) for the first time ever on Tuesday
And got a bronze medal (vets) in the east district cross country relays today
Neither was expected, especially after 6 months of on-off injuries. What a week!
And got a bronze medal (vets) in the east district cross country relays today
Neither was expected, especially after 6 months of on-off injuries. What a week!
October 11, 2025 at 3:28 PM
This week, I won a race (5k) for the first time ever on Tuesday
And got a bronze medal (vets) in the east district cross country relays today
Neither was expected, especially after 6 months of on-off injuries. What a week!
And got a bronze medal (vets) in the east district cross country relays today
Neither was expected, especially after 6 months of on-off injuries. What a week!