Duncan Lamont
@duncanlamont2.bsky.social
I post cool charts about markets and investing. Scottish and into running. Head of Strategic Research @Schroders. Not investment advice
They’re also a relatively small part of the index at present (going in one direction though ⬆️)
November 19, 2025 at 12:38 PM
They’re also a relatively small part of the index at present (going in one direction though ⬆️)
Big tech have better credit metrics than other investment grade borrowers
Leverage is lower and interest cover higher
So while they’re clearly leveraging up to pay for AI capex, the starting point is solid
History suggests it could take some time for fundamental vulnerabilities to build
Leverage is lower and interest cover higher
So while they’re clearly leveraging up to pay for AI capex, the starting point is solid
History suggests it could take some time for fundamental vulnerabilities to build
November 19, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Big tech have better credit metrics than other investment grade borrowers
Leverage is lower and interest cover higher
So while they’re clearly leveraging up to pay for AI capex, the starting point is solid
History suggests it could take some time for fundamental vulnerabilities to build
Leverage is lower and interest cover higher
So while they’re clearly leveraging up to pay for AI capex, the starting point is solid
History suggests it could take some time for fundamental vulnerabilities to build
The last time Scotland was at a World Cup I watched the opening match against Brazil in my mum’s living room with my mates and a crate of Tennents
Scotland scored to make it 1-1
Everyone ran into the street screaming, neighbours hugging each other
Can still remember that feeling. Here. We. Go.
Scotland scored to make it 1-1
Everyone ran into the street screaming, neighbours hugging each other
Can still remember that feeling. Here. We. Go.
November 18, 2025 at 10:48 PM
The last time Scotland was at a World Cup I watched the opening match against Brazil in my mum’s living room with my mates and a crate of Tennents
Scotland scored to make it 1-1
Everyone ran into the street screaming, neighbours hugging each other
Can still remember that feeling. Here. We. Go.
Scotland scored to make it 1-1
Everyone ran into the street screaming, neighbours hugging each other
Can still remember that feeling. Here. We. Go.
Here are the sector charts, which exclude Tesla as it’s off the scale…
November 17, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Here are the sector charts, which exclude Tesla as it’s off the scale…
Capex from big tech ⬆️
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
November 17, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Capex from big tech ⬆️
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
Makes them more capital intensive
❓Is there evidence that higher capital intensity/lower ROIC should result in lower valuation multiples
💡 Yes. Sectors with lower ROIC tend to trade on lower multiples. Big risk!
Stronger relationship between sectors than within them
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: this is soaring in recent years, but what is it?
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
November 7, 2025 at 8:17 AM
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: this is soaring in recent years, but what is it?
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
Clue: it’s to do with the stock market and has important economic consequences
Big numbers in the billions of dollars, big growth. It’s on track to treble between 2023 and 2026
FYI: it’s not Greggs sausage roll sales
I knew this sounded familiar!
November 5, 2025 at 2:16 PM
I knew this sounded familiar!
New disaster movie just landed
November 5, 2025 at 12:02 PM
New disaster movie just landed
I don’t even mind that it’s the start of November. A bit of classy Christmas cheer, with lights reflecting in the puddles, put a smile on my face
November 4, 2025 at 4:51 PM
I don’t even mind that it’s the start of November. A bit of classy Christmas cheer, with lights reflecting in the puddles, put a smile on my face
Wow, big changes in comms when BoE announces rate decision on Thurs
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
November 3, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Wow, big changes in comms when BoE announces rate decision on Thurs
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
1️⃣ para from each MPC member in the minutes
2️⃣ clearer explanations/breakdowns of analysis behind decisions
3️⃣ next qtly report adds section on risks/scenarios
➡️ shift from "central projection" driven comms approach of the past
Read the purple question from Junior Trivial Pursuit and see if you’d have got it right
Answer is in the RH pane
Answer is in the RH pane
November 2, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Read the purple question from Junior Trivial Pursuit and see if you’d have got it right
Answer is in the RH pane
Answer is in the RH pane
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: these two rival companies are household names. Their fortunes have diverged. Who are they?
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
October 31, 2025 at 10:20 AM
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: these two rival companies are household names. Their fortunes have diverged. Who are they?
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
Clue 1: they're consumer-oriented stocks and you've almost certainly been a buyer of both of their products/services many times
Clue 2: you almost certainly have a strong opinion on them
How to reduce car accidents: reintroduce wolves
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
October 30, 2025 at 2:34 PM
How to reduce car accidents: reintroduce wolves
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
The paper’s title is even better: Option Value of Apex Predators: Evidence from a River Discontinuity
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: I am a widely followed asset class. What am I?
To make it a bit trickier, I've shown it in euro terms
To make it a bit trickier, I've shown it in euro terms
October 24, 2025 at 8:47 AM
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: I am a widely followed asset class. What am I?
To make it a bit trickier, I've shown it in euro terms
To make it a bit trickier, I've shown it in euro terms
Copenhagen observation: bikes bikes bikes!
No lycra or a dropped handlebar to be seen, just lots of normal people, wearing clothes for work, cycle-commuting, even though it’s a drizzly day
Love to see it
No lycra or a dropped handlebar to be seen, just lots of normal people, wearing clothes for work, cycle-commuting, even though it’s a drizzly day
Love to see it
October 23, 2025 at 8:22 AM
Copenhagen observation: bikes bikes bikes!
No lycra or a dropped handlebar to be seen, just lots of normal people, wearing clothes for work, cycle-commuting, even though it’s a drizzly day
Love to see it
No lycra or a dropped handlebar to be seen, just lots of normal people, wearing clothes for work, cycle-commuting, even though it’s a drizzly day
Love to see it
Genuinely, I would take this, even if I wasn’t contemplating revenge
It’s my all time favourite and I’d happily read it multiple times
Could maybe re-attempt Bertrand Russell’s history of western philosophy which I gave up on
And an encyclopaedia or the bible. As they’re both long
It’s my all time favourite and I’d happily read it multiple times
Could maybe re-attempt Bertrand Russell’s history of western philosophy which I gave up on
And an encyclopaedia or the bible. As they’re both long
October 22, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Genuinely, I would take this, even if I wasn’t contemplating revenge
It’s my all time favourite and I’d happily read it multiple times
Could maybe re-attempt Bertrand Russell’s history of western philosophy which I gave up on
And an encyclopaedia or the bible. As they’re both long
It’s my all time favourite and I’d happily read it multiple times
Could maybe re-attempt Bertrand Russell’s history of western philosophy which I gave up on
And an encyclopaedia or the bible. As they’re both long
What could a further substantial weakening in the dollar mean for inflation, growth, interest rates/bond yields in US, Europe, China and EM ex-China?
Sorry about the small font but worth something zooming in and reading!
From here:
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
Sorry about the small font but worth something zooming in and reading!
From here:
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
October 22, 2025 at 8:23 AM
What could a further substantial weakening in the dollar mean for inflation, growth, interest rates/bond yields in US, Europe, China and EM ex-China?
Sorry about the small font but worth something zooming in and reading!
From here:
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
Sorry about the small font but worth something zooming in and reading!
From here:
www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
They had one of those
October 21, 2025 at 9:32 AM
They had one of those
Hotel buffet in Oslo has “brown cheese”. Looked like a massive log of chocolate. Had to try it
@robinwigglesworth.ft.com opinions please
@robinwigglesworth.ft.com opinions please
October 21, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Hotel buffet in Oslo has “brown cheese”. Looked like a massive log of chocolate. Had to try it
@robinwigglesworth.ft.com opinions please
@robinwigglesworth.ft.com opinions please
Agreed. Overall ratings mix has improved.
But the market doesn’t seem convinced that the secured bonds merit the same spread as unsecured ones of the same credit rating
Suggests scepticism (caveated with sector/maturity difference making this an imperfect comparison)
But the market doesn’t seem convinced that the secured bonds merit the same spread as unsecured ones of the same credit rating
Suggests scepticism (caveated with sector/maturity difference making this an imperfect comparison)
October 16, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Agreed. Overall ratings mix has improved.
But the market doesn’t seem convinced that the secured bonds merit the same spread as unsecured ones of the same credit rating
Suggests scepticism (caveated with sector/maturity difference making this an imperfect comparison)
But the market doesn’t seem convinced that the secured bonds merit the same spread as unsecured ones of the same credit rating
Suggests scepticism (caveated with sector/maturity difference making this an imperfect comparison)
The % of US HY market that is secured debt has doubled to 34% since 2020
Why? Issuers rewarded with higher credit rating/lower credit spread/cheaper cost of debt
Investors:
Secured bonds have higher recovery rates on default ✅
But mostly riskier borrowers who do this (needs must) so be wary ❌
Why? Issuers rewarded with higher credit rating/lower credit spread/cheaper cost of debt
Investors:
Secured bonds have higher recovery rates on default ✅
But mostly riskier borrowers who do this (needs must) so be wary ❌
October 16, 2025 at 9:57 AM
The % of US HY market that is secured debt has doubled to 34% since 2020
Why? Issuers rewarded with higher credit rating/lower credit spread/cheaper cost of debt
Investors:
Secured bonds have higher recovery rates on default ✅
But mostly riskier borrowers who do this (needs must) so be wary ❌
Why? Issuers rewarded with higher credit rating/lower credit spread/cheaper cost of debt
Investors:
Secured bonds have higher recovery rates on default ✅
But mostly riskier borrowers who do this (needs must) so be wary ❌
Never seen such chaos in a bookshop
October 14, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Never seen such chaos in a bookshop
This week, I won a race (5k) for the first time ever on Tuesday
And got a bronze medal (vets) in the east district cross country relays today
Neither was expected, especially after 6 months of on-off injuries. What a week!
And got a bronze medal (vets) in the east district cross country relays today
Neither was expected, especially after 6 months of on-off injuries. What a week!
October 11, 2025 at 3:28 PM
This week, I won a race (5k) for the first time ever on Tuesday
And got a bronze medal (vets) in the east district cross country relays today
Neither was expected, especially after 6 months of on-off injuries. What a week!
And got a bronze medal (vets) in the east district cross country relays today
Neither was expected, especially after 6 months of on-off injuries. What a week!
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: what does this US stock market related chart show?
Clue: it’s hugely important for markets and the economy
Clue: it’s hugely important for markets and the economy
October 10, 2025 at 7:39 AM
📊📉Friday Chart Quiz: what does this US stock market related chart show?
Clue: it’s hugely important for markets and the economy
Clue: it’s hugely important for markets and the economy