Matthias
@ulumulu.bsky.social
All about elections and polling in the EU.
Based in Brussels, In love with bad puns. Usually grumpy.
Based in Brussels, In love with bad puns. Usually grumpy.
Some Werner Herzog fans in Germany's foreign ministry
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnTU...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnTU...
January 30, 2026 at 12:48 PM
Some Werner Herzog fans in Germany's foreign ministry
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnTU...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnTU...
Reposted by Matthias
Compare this to how careful the EU was during the Brexit negotiations to not do anything to encourage Scottish separatism, outside of a few fringe voices. And it would have rightly been seen as heavy outside intervention, if EU leaders had made offers to the Scottish independence movement.
Hybrid US warfare against it’s neighbour evolving…
Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada
Separatists from oil-rich province try to capitalise on friction between White House and Mark Carney
giftarticle.ft.com
January 29, 2026 at 11:42 AM
Compare this to how careful the EU was during the Brexit negotiations to not do anything to encourage Scottish separatism, outside of a few fringe voices. And it would have rightly been seen as heavy outside intervention, if EU leaders had made offers to the Scottish independence movement.
"Radev announced his resignation as head of state in a televised address on the evening of January 19, though he did not make clear the identity of his political project nor who his electoral partners would be."
sofiaglobe.com/2026/01/20/r...
sofiaglobe.com/2026/01/20/r...
Radev’s resignation as president shakes up political scene ahead of Bulgaria’s parliamentary elections
Bulgaria’s Constitutional Court confirmed on January 20 that it is to consider its decision on Roumen Radev’s resignation as president, while the move continues to provoke reactions fro…
sofiaglobe.com
January 20, 2026 at 2:55 PM
"Radev announced his resignation as head of state in a televised address on the evening of January 19, though he did not make clear the identity of his political project nor who his electoral partners would be."
sofiaglobe.com/2026/01/20/r...
sofiaglobe.com/2026/01/20/r...
Reposted by Matthias
2024: can Europe defend itself ALONGSIDE America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
January 18, 2026 at 10:12 AM
2024: can Europe defend itself ALONGSIDE America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
Reposted by Matthias
Was just thinking of how funny it will be when Trump learns that France actually has territory in South America.
January 6, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Was just thinking of how funny it will be when Trump learns that France actually has territory in South America.
Reposted by Matthias
What happens when the formerly benign hegemon turns hostile? Other powers have options - but not all realist options are realistic.
My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
Hegemonic hostility: Europe's realist(ic) options
5 January 2026
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 7:27 AM
What happens when the formerly benign hegemon turns hostile? Other powers have options - but not all realist options are realistic.
My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
Reposted by Matthias
Not the most important thing today, but given the fact that recent resolutions in the EU Parliament on Venezuela were carried by the EPP with all the far-right groups - now literally called the Venezuela majority - how the EU Parliament will take a position on Trump's Venezuela occupation.
January 3, 2026 at 6:28 PM
Not the most important thing today, but given the fact that recent resolutions in the EU Parliament on Venezuela were carried by the EPP with all the far-right groups - now literally called the Venezuela majority - how the EU Parliament will take a position on Trump's Venezuela occupation.
Mir ist gerade aufgefallen, dass ich beim Rosenkohl essen immer an @sasastanisic.bsky.social denken muss.
December 26, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Mir ist gerade aufgefallen, dass ich beim Rosenkohl essen immer an @sasastanisic.bsky.social denken muss.
Reposted by Matthias
Czech president Pavel will refuse to appoint controversial Motorists party leader Filip Turek as Environment Minister if PM Babiš nominates him and expects him not to do so. Constitutionally Pavel would be on thin ice, but do-able as President Zeman showed.
Prezident Pavel předpokládá, že premiér Babiš nenavrhne Filipa Turka na post ministra životního prostředí.
Pokud by Babiš toto očekávání nenaplnil, z vyjádření Hradu vyplývá, že prezident by Turka nejmenoval, ač to považuje za mimořádný krok. irozhl.as/zgF
Pokud by Babiš toto očekávání nenaplnil, z vyjádření Hradu vyplývá, že prezident by Turka nejmenoval, ač to považuje za mimořádný krok. irozhl.as/zgF
Pavel předpokládá, že Babiš Turka nenavrhne na ministra. Pokud to učiní, tak ho prezident nejmenuje
Vysvětlení problematických výroků a činů, které v pondělí při schůzce na Pražském hradě předložil Turek, hlavu státu nepřesvědčila.
irozhl.as
December 22, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Czech president Pavel will refuse to appoint controversial Motorists party leader Filip Turek as Environment Minister if PM Babiš nominates him and expects him not to do so. Constitutionally Pavel would be on thin ice, but do-able as President Zeman showed.
Breaking med
From anesthesiologist to warlord.
Soon on Netflix, AMC and Arte.
From anesthesiologist to warlord.
Soon on Netflix, AMC and Arte.
Trump designates fentanyl a weapon of mass destruction
➡️ https://l.euronews.com/Smch
➡️ https://l.euronews.com/Smch
December 16, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Breaking med
From anesthesiologist to warlord.
Soon on Netflix, AMC and Arte.
From anesthesiologist to warlord.
Soon on Netflix, AMC and Arte.
Reposted by Matthias
Spot on. Moment of truth for Paris and Rome.
Is France serious about strategic autonomy or is it just a vacuous talking point once Europe hits real trade-offs?
And is Italy with Europe and Ukraine or Moscow and Washington?
Is France serious about strategic autonomy or is it just a vacuous talking point once Europe hits real trade-offs?
And is Italy with Europe and Ukraine or Moscow and Washington?
Often, Berlin is the main veto player when it comes to decisive EU action. But this week, for once, Berlin is a key driver of getting both the reparations loan and Mercosur over the finish line.
This time, the EU's ability to act act fully hinges on Rome's and Paris's will to jump.
This time, the EU's ability to act act fully hinges on Rome's and Paris's will to jump.
December 15, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Spot on. Moment of truth for Paris and Rome.
Is France serious about strategic autonomy or is it just a vacuous talking point once Europe hits real trade-offs?
And is Italy with Europe and Ukraine or Moscow and Washington?
Is France serious about strategic autonomy or is it just a vacuous talking point once Europe hits real trade-offs?
And is Italy with Europe and Ukraine or Moscow and Washington?
Reposted by Matthias
The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.
I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.
🧵 Long thread.
I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.
🧵 Long thread.
December 11, 2025 at 6:16 PM
The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.
I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.
🧵 Long thread.
I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.
🧵 Long thread.
Why those countries specifically?
“Austria, Hungary, Italy, and Poland are listed as countries the U.S. should “work more with…with the goal of pulling them away from the [European Union].”“
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
‘Make Europe Great Again’ and more from a longer version of the National Security Strategy
A fuller version reviewed by Defense One outlines the Trump administration’s plans for shedding old relationships and creating new ones.
www.defenseone.com
December 10, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Why those countries specifically?
Reposted by Matthias
Great data. I noticed in my data collection on the Council of the EU that the number of legislative act it passes per year keeps falling each legislative period since at least 2009. But this data implies that the regulations & directives individually get deeper.
The EU 🇪🇺 now adopts fewer legal acts per year, but the regulatory load inside them keeps growing 📈
A new @jeppjournal.bsky.social article by Brandsma et al. measures regulation by counting actual regulatory statements (“Companies shall…”).
I plotted their data: fewer acts, more obligations.
A new @jeppjournal.bsky.social article by Brandsma et al. measures regulation by counting actual regulatory statements (“Companies shall…”).
I plotted their data: fewer acts, more obligations.
December 10, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Great data. I noticed in my data collection on the Council of the EU that the number of legislative act it passes per year keeps falling each legislative period since at least 2009. But this data implies that the regulations & directives individually get deeper.
Reposted by Matthias
That was a bit under the radar of international news these days, but couldn’t be taken for granted:
French social security financing bill adopted after knife-edge vote
French social security financing bill adopted after knife-edge vote
A narrow National Assembly vote hands Lecornu a fragile budget victory
dlvr.it
December 9, 2025 at 7:43 PM
That was a bit under the radar of international news these days, but couldn’t be taken for granted:
Nice video about the protests in Bulgaria from TLDR News EU
youtu.be/5YgS63UZENs?...
youtu.be/5YgS63UZENs?...
Why Bulgaria’s Political Crisis is Getting Worse
YouTube video by TLDR News EU
youtu.be
December 9, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Nice video about the protests in Bulgaria from TLDR News EU
youtu.be/5YgS63UZENs?...
youtu.be/5YgS63UZENs?...
Reposted by Matthias
Possibly the most self-destructive reaction towards the US antagonism against the EU is by national leaders offering national partnerships.
This is exactly the kind of avenue for the US/Trump to split Europe and reign over smaller European countries.
This is exactly the kind of avenue for the US/Trump to split Europe and reign over smaller European countries.
December 9, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Possibly the most self-destructive reaction towards the US antagonism against the EU is by national leaders offering national partnerships.
This is exactly the kind of avenue for the US/Trump to split Europe and reign over smaller European countries.
This is exactly the kind of avenue for the US/Trump to split Europe and reign over smaller European countries.
VdL- vs Venezuela- vs Maize-majority are great additions to the Brussels bubble vocabulary.
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
November 2025 was a month of much upheaval in the European Parliament. For the first time, a major piece of legislation was adopted by a centre-right-to-far-right majority – but other alliances also played a role.
The #EUanalytics review by NICOLAI VON ONDARZA
The #EUanalytics review by NICOLAI VON ONDARZA
EU analytics – November 2025 review: The breakdown of the Cordon Sanitaire amid three different majorities
Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa
www.foederalist.eu
December 8, 2025 at 9:00 AM
VdL- vs Venezuela- vs Maize-majority are great additions to the Brussels bubble vocabulary.
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
First exit poll from Bukarest
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
December 7, 2025 at 7:22 PM
First exit poll from Bukarest
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
Reposted by Matthias
It begins.
😬
😬
Romania: (Bucharest mayoral election)
Turnout at 1:00 PM EET
2020: 15.38%
2024: 16.43%
2025: 13.17%
Source: Central electoral bureau
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
#Romania
Turnout at 1:00 PM EET
2020: 15.38%
2024: 16.43%
2025: 13.17%
Source: Central electoral bureau
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
#Romania
December 7, 2025 at 11:09 AM
It begins.
😬
😬
Reposted by Matthias
Romania, AtlasIntel poll:
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
December 5, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Romania, AtlasIntel poll:
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
“The piece treats Europe as a sort of other, one that is a model of what not to do,” he said, adding that it underscored that the United States was not isolationist, but rather “unilateralist.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
Trump Administration Says Europe Faces ‘Civilizational Erasure’
www.nytimes.com
December 5, 2025 at 5:33 PM
“The piece treats Europe as a sort of other, one that is a model of what not to do,” he said, adding that it underscored that the United States was not isolationist, but rather “unilateralist.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
Reposted by Matthias
The #DamascusDossier investigation is now live.
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
Damascus Dossier - ICIJ
Tens of thousands of secret photos and intelligence files expose the Assad regime’s killing machine.
www.icij.org
December 4, 2025 at 5:21 AM
The #DamascusDossier investigation is now live.
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
Reposted by Matthias
Arrows are tricky. For us, as the designer of the visual, it will be super clear what it means. But for someone looking at our visual for the first time, it can be highly ambiguous. Depending on the reader, the same arrow can mean sequence, zoom, range, label, movement,...
1/2
1/2
December 4, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Arrows are tricky. For us, as the designer of the visual, it will be super clear what it means. But for someone looking at our visual for the first time, it can be highly ambiguous. Depending on the reader, the same arrow can mean sequence, zoom, range, label, movement,...
1/2
1/2
Perhaps the pendulum will swing back to the good old face-to-face mode 👀
The first wave of AI survey-takers may not distort much in the beginning. Their answers often mimic patterns established by existing polling. But a more insidious feedback loop will emerge, if it has not already
AIs could turn opinion polls into gibberish
Large language models can answer surveys and pass the tests to check that a respondent is human
econ.st
December 3, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Perhaps the pendulum will swing back to the good old face-to-face mode 👀