Gesine Weber
@gesineweber.bsky.social
European security & defence, global order, EU in US-China competition.
Senior Researcher, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich. PhD Defence Studies, King’s College London. Into running, matcha, 中文. Views my own.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
Senior Researcher, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich. PhD Defence Studies, King’s College London. Into running, matcha, 中文. Views my own.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
Yep. Don't overrate.
The EU has quietly renewed its sanctions on four Chinese officials and one organisation for their role in human rights violations in Xinjiang - procedural move, done last week without fanfare along with other sanctions rollovers - via @engineroglu_fw
December 8, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Yep. Don't overrate.
Reposted by Gesine Weber
Dear European official accounts, just a reminder that it is possible to leave X behind - the German defence ministry did so in January 2025 and has not posted since.
Verteidigungsministerium lässt X-Kanal ruhen
Das Gebaren von US-Milliardär Musk rund um seine Social-Media-Plattform X lässt die Kritik daran immer lauter werden. Nun will das Wehrressort als erstes Bundesministerium X nicht mehr nutzen. Ganz we...
www.tagesschau.de
December 8, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Dear European official accounts, just a reminder that it is possible to leave X behind - the German defence ministry did so in January 2025 and has not posted since.
French president Macron is back from his trip to China. France24 has a summary, I have a few thoughts. Short 🧵:
www.france24.com/fr/asie-paci...
www.france24.com/fr/asie-paci...
Ce qu'il faut retenir de la visite d'Emmanuel Macron en Chine
Dans un contexte de tensions entre Pékin et l'Union européenne, Emmanuel Macron a achevé une visite d’État de trois jours en Chine pour tenter d’avancer sur l’Ukraine, le commerce et le rééquilibrage…
www.france24.com
December 8, 2025 at 9:08 AM
French president Macron is back from his trip to China. France24 has a summary, I have a few thoughts. Short 🧵:
www.france24.com/fr/asie-paci...
www.france24.com/fr/asie-paci...
I do not fully agree with this piece, but there are many interesting thoughts in it. View on the US, though, is way too optimistic in my opinion. How would you describe views on Europe in the NSS if not as open hostility?
velinatchakarova.substack.com/p/europe-is-...
velinatchakarova.substack.com/p/europe-is-...
Europe Is Not Alone. It Is Geopolitically Asleep.
Europe’s problem is not that it is alone. Europe’s problem Is that it is still in denial about the world it lives in.
velinatchakarova.substack.com
December 8, 2025 at 8:45 AM
I do not fully agree with this piece, but there are many interesting thoughts in it. View on the US, though, is way too optimistic in my opinion. How would you describe views on Europe in the NSS if not as open hostility?
velinatchakarova.substack.com/p/europe-is-...
velinatchakarova.substack.com/p/europe-is-...
I know that I am repeating myself, but I think that youth mobility would be one of these things that are easy to implement (if there was political will) and would have a massive effect. Would be a shame - and a long-term strategic problem - to have another generation Brexit.
‘UK argues… Brussels is… reopening a debate… at which it was agreed to limit numbers…
‘EU diplomat.. perception among [EU27].. the UK… taking a “hyper-transactional” and “penny-pinching” approach might “demotivate” Brussels to deliver on other areas of British interest’
www.ft.com/content/773b...
‘EU diplomat.. perception among [EU27].. the UK… taking a “hyper-transactional” and “penny-pinching” approach might “demotivate” Brussels to deliver on other areas of British interest’
www.ft.com/content/773b...
EU demands no cap on youth mobility scheme with UK
Draft text also calls for ‘home’ fees for European students at UK universities
www.ft.com
December 6, 2025 at 5:48 PM
I know that I am repeating myself, but I think that youth mobility would be one of these things that are easy to implement (if there was political will) and would have a massive effect. Would be a shame - and a long-term strategic problem - to have another generation Brexit.
You know what’s coming: this is your regular reminder to disconnect on the weekend and do things that are good for you. I recommend you do it twice if you read the US NSS yesterday.
December 6, 2025 at 4:18 PM
You know what’s coming: this is your regular reminder to disconnect on the weekend and do things that are good for you. I recommend you do it twice if you read the US NSS yesterday.
Don't want to read the US National Security Strategy? I have a nicer weekend read for you, hot off the press in @ipq.bsky.social:
ip-quarterly.com/en/why-europ...
ip-quarterly.com/en/why-europ...
Why Europe Should Work Toward Managed Multipolarity
US unipolar power politics and US-China strategic competition do not serve Europe. It must actively promote an alternative.
ip-quarterly.com
December 5, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Don't want to read the US National Security Strategy? I have a nicer weekend read for you, hot off the press in @ipq.bsky.social:
ip-quarterly.com/en/why-europ...
ip-quarterly.com/en/why-europ...
Surprise is the main word here. I absolutely cannot understand why people are still surprised or shocked by that, and how even some experts still sugarcoat the US and its views on Europe.
People continue to be surprised by this stuff as if we don't already know that the main point of strategy documents for the Trump admin is throwing far-right talking points together in exactly the way that produces maximum trolling.
December 5, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Surprise is the main word here. I absolutely cannot understand why people are still surprised or shocked by that, and how even some experts still sugarcoat the US and its views on Europe.
Sometimes people tell me that I exaggerate when I say that the US openly hostile towards Europe. The NSS speaks a very clear language though, and it is a hostile one.
Europeans are waking up this morning to find the new US National Security Strategy (quietly) released. And what it has to say on Europe could not be clearer. On the „stark prospect of civilizations erasure“ for example. 👇
December 5, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Sometimes people tell me that I exaggerate when I say that the US openly hostile towards Europe. The NSS speaks a very clear language though, and it is a hostile one.
Thanks for the warning, @kschake.bsky.social. I guess it will be a painful read.
The Trump National Security Strategy is an act of vandalism against the things that actually make our country strong, safe, and prosperous.
December 5, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Thanks for the warning, @kschake.bsky.social. I guess it will be a painful read.
Moscow, Washington, and Brussels.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin will test how well New Delhi can balance ties with Moscow and Washington.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/04/m...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/04/m...
Modi Walks a Tightrope Between Putin and Trump
This week’s meeting with Putin will test how well India can balance ties with Russia and the United States.
foreignpolicy.com
December 4, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Moscow, Washington, and Brussels.
Yes, of course Ukraine is on the agenda when any European leader travels to China. But it’s also very clear that trying to shift China’s position towards Europe’s is a dead end.
Face à Emmanuel Macron, Xi Jinping ne lâche rien sur l’Ukraine
Face à Emmanuel Macron, Xi Jinping ne lâche rien sur l’Ukraine
Le président français a tenté une nouvelle fois de pousser la Chine à faire pression sur Moscou pour mettre fin à la guerre en Ukraine. Mais Pékin, qui soutient l’effort de guerre russe en livrant des composants, refuse de s’impliquer davantage.
www.lemonde.fr
December 4, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Yes, of course Ukraine is on the agenda when any European leader travels to China. But it’s also very clear that trying to shift China’s position towards Europe’s is a dead end.
Should Europe negotiate with Russia?
All 7 experts here say yes (with caveats) - that shows how much European thinking has evolved over the last year. Even the question would have been a non-starter, especially in Eastern Europe.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
All 7 experts here say yes (with caveats) - that shows how much European thinking has evolved over the last year. Even the question would have been a non-starter, especially in Eastern Europe.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Taking the Pulse: Should Europe Negotiate with Russia?
By negotiating directly with the Kremlin, the Trump administration has broken the taboo on diplomatic contacts with Russia. With Ukrainian and European security at stake, is it time for Brussels to op...
carnegieendowment.org
December 4, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Should Europe negotiate with Russia?
All 7 experts here say yes (with caveats) - that shows how much European thinking has evolved over the last year. Even the question would have been a non-starter, especially in Eastern Europe.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
All 7 experts here say yes (with caveats) - that shows how much European thinking has evolved over the last year. Even the question would have been a non-starter, especially in Eastern Europe.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
French President Macron is in China at the moment. First results of the visit:
(Still need to watch this, recap tomorrow)
www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-mac...
(Still need to watch this, recap tomorrow)
www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-mac...
Visite d’État en République populaire de Chine : premiers jours à Pékin.
Le Président de la République et Madame Brigitte Macron se sont rendus en République populaire de Chine à l’occasion d’une visite d’État du 3 au 5 décembre 2025.
www.elysee.fr
December 4, 2025 at 7:34 PM
French President Macron is in China at the moment. First results of the visit:
(Still need to watch this, recap tomorrow)
www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-mac...
(Still need to watch this, recap tomorrow)
www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-mac...
Took a train in Switzerland today. Staff asks for my ticket a second time; looking for my phone, I say with a smile that she did that just 20min ago. Staff very sorry, “everything is messy today, so many disruptions!”
NB: train is running *3 min late*.
German brain cannot comprehend this.
NB: train is running *3 min late*.
German brain cannot comprehend this.
December 4, 2025 at 5:57 PM
Took a train in Switzerland today. Staff asks for my ticket a second time; looking for my phone, I say with a smile that she did that just 20min ago. Staff very sorry, “everything is messy today, so many disruptions!”
NB: train is running *3 min late*.
German brain cannot comprehend this.
NB: train is running *3 min late*.
German brain cannot comprehend this.
Reposted by Gesine Weber
This also mirrors one of the suggestions in the 'project 2025' outline - to transform the US role in NATO to that of a 'nightwatcher' only responsible for nuclear deterrence, while the Europeans handle conventional deterrence.
December 4, 2025 at 10:06 AM
This also mirrors one of the suggestions in the 'project 2025' outline - to transform the US role in NATO to that of a 'nightwatcher' only responsible for nuclear deterrence, while the Europeans handle conventional deterrence.
I think Europe needs to take this much more seriously: US is shifting dynamics in NATO through positioning itself as a mediator rather than an ally of Europeans.
Today's Substack looks at the implications of Marco Rubio's absence at yesterday's NATO summit and the 28-point plan's casting of the US as a 'mediator' between NATO and Russia.
It also contains an excerpt from my book The Owned Continent, out next week.
It also contains an excerpt from my book The Owned Continent, out next week.
Rubio's absence shows NATO is now a paper tiger
Yesterday, for the first time in decades, a US Secretary of State declined to attend a summit of NATO foreign ministers. Instead he sent a deputy who questioned whether NATO should exist.
davekeating.substack.com
December 4, 2025 at 9:30 AM
I think Europe needs to take this much more seriously: US is shifting dynamics in NATO through positioning itself as a mediator rather than an ally of Europeans.
Can we please move beyond all these rejoining (all of EU or customs union) and instead focus on concrete steps? Summit earlier this year brought good energy, but this needs to be underpinned by action.
Starmer rules out rejoining EU customs union but steps up ‘reset’ efforts on.ft.com/4oxgApm
Starmer rules out rejoining EU customs union but steps up ‘reset’ efforts
UK prime minister has given two speeches this week promising closer ties with Brussels
on.ft.com
December 3, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Can we please move beyond all these rejoining (all of EU or customs union) and instead focus on concrete steps? Summit earlier this year brought good energy, but this needs to be underpinned by action.
Finally good news from the football world!
L’Allemagne organisera l’édition 2029 de l’Euro féminin de football
L’Allemagne organisera l’édition 2029 de l’Euro féminin de football
Le comité exécutif de l’UEFA a annoncé, mardi, que le championnat d’Europe 2029 sera organisé en outre-Rhin.
www.lemonde.fr
December 3, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Finally good news from the football world!
I mean, he can. Ultimately, does it matter? US anyway hasn’t signed the Rome statute, so war criminals can travel to the US without concern unless signalled differently by US gov.
I agree that he should not, but I have doubts whether Europe’s voice matters.
I agree that he should not, but I have doubts whether Europe’s voice matters.
EU tells Trump: You can’t pardon Putin for war crimes in Ukraine
Any move to “wipe the slate clean” for Russia in a peace deal would be “a historic mistake of huge proportions.”
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Any move to “wipe the slate clean” for Russia in a peace deal would be “a historic mistake of huge proportions.”
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
EU tells Trump: You can’t pardon Putin for war crimes in Ukraine
Any move to “wipe the slate clean” for Russia in a peace deal would be “a historic mistake of huge proportions,” the EU justice commissioner tells POLITICO.
www.politico.eu
December 1, 2025 at 6:22 PM
I mean, he can. Ultimately, does it matter? US anyway hasn’t signed the Rome statute, so war criminals can travel to the US without concern unless signalled differently by US gov.
I agree that he should not, but I have doubts whether Europe’s voice matters.
I agree that he should not, but I have doubts whether Europe’s voice matters.
Looks like something to cater my IR nerd side.
We’ve surveyed ‘Non-Western Visions of International Order’ for Annual Review of Political Science vol 29
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Non-Western Visions of International Order
The scholarship on the concept of order has been expanding within international relations. The continuous upheaval of world politics first triggered a broad debate on the resilience of the liberal int...
www.annualreviews.org
December 1, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Looks like something to cater my IR nerd side.
If this happens, it’s good for Canada - but if things on EU-UK side don’t move in parallel (and I’m pessimistic), it’s a disaster for what we hope to become a European defence industrial base.
So for those keeping track, that means Canada will join the EU's defence procurement scheme, but the UK won't.
It's really incredible how much British pride continues to inflict self-harm.
It's really incredible how much British pride continues to inflict self-harm.
Canada clinches deal to join Europe’s €150B defense scheme
The deal concludes months of tough talks and will allow Ottawa to take part in procurements financed by the EU’s SAFE program.
www.politico.eu
December 1, 2025 at 6:14 PM
If this happens, it’s good for Canada - but if things on EU-UK side don’t move in parallel (and I’m pessimistic), it’s a disaster for what we hope to become a European defence industrial base.
Reposted by Gesine Weber
The takehome message here isn't 'the Commission needs to toughen up for the geoeconomic age'. There needs to be buy-in from the member states and a way to bring companies in (or make them play along). This will happen over and over again if there's no real political ownership, including the costs.
The case was paused then restarted last January as the time to submit new evidence approaches.
Privately EU officials said they struggled to argue the case since few companies wanted to give evidence on the record.
Also a sense that the case does not got neatly with WTO rules
Privately EU officials said they struggled to argue the case since few companies wanted to give evidence on the record.
Also a sense that the case does not got neatly with WTO rules
December 1, 2025 at 5:55 PM
The takehome message here isn't 'the Commission needs to toughen up for the geoeconomic age'. There needs to be buy-in from the member states and a way to bring companies in (or make them play along). This will happen over and over again if there's no real political ownership, including the costs.
I just listened to a podcast with a readout on the launch convention of Generation Deutschland, new youth branch of the far-right AfD.
Only 12% of members are women.
I think that Germany has a huge problem with young men.
podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/d...
Only 12% of members are women.
I think that Germany has a huge problem with young men.
podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/d...
Neue AfD-Jugend - Wie radikal ist die “Generation Deutschland”?
Podcast Episode · Der Tag · 01/12/2025 · 38m
podcasts.apple.com
December 1, 2025 at 6:12 PM
I just listened to a podcast with a readout on the launch convention of Generation Deutschland, new youth branch of the far-right AfD.
Only 12% of members are women.
I think that Germany has a huge problem with young men.
podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/d...
Only 12% of members are women.
I think that Germany has a huge problem with young men.
podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/d...