Gesine Weber
@gesineweber.bsky.social
European security & defence, global order, EU in US-China competition.
Senior Researcher, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich. PhD Defence Studies, King’s College London. Into running, matcha, 中文. Views my own.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
Senior Researcher, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich. PhD Defence Studies, King’s College London. Into running, matcha, 中文. Views my own.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
I don't want to be cynical, but as I only know the run-up to the Iraq war from history books, I see some similarity here and that does not look good to me.
"Even if the voters opted for new rulers, however, any U.S. effort to bring about regime change in Caracas that is based on military strike power, faulty premises and unwarranted assumptions is unlikely to bring about a smooth political transition – and could lead to far worse outcomes."
Beware the Slide Toward Regime Change in Venezuela | International Crisis Group
The Trump administration is dispatching military assets to the Caribbean and sinking boats it claims ferry drugs. While it appears the deployment is part of a plan to depose Venezuelan President Nicol...
www.crisisgroup.org
November 18, 2025 at 4:12 PM
I don't want to be cynical, but as I only know the run-up to the Iraq war from history books, I see some similarity here and that does not look good to me.
"Chinese view tends towards an extreme caricature of Europe’s challenges, and this leads to two blind spots (...). to assume that Europe largely follows America’s lead, and to believe that China somehow offers Europe a way out of its problems."
www.economist.com/china/2025/1...
www.economist.com/china/2025/1...
Europe sees China as a rival. China sees Europe as a has-been
Yet China may be underestimating Europe’s willingness to push back
www.economist.com
November 18, 2025 at 4:11 PM
"Chinese view tends towards an extreme caricature of Europe’s challenges, and this leads to two blind spots (...). to assume that Europe largely follows America’s lead, and to believe that China somehow offers Europe a way out of its problems."
www.economist.com/china/2025/1...
www.economist.com/china/2025/1...
Worth a read (in Chinese or translation): how Chinese scholars see Europe: m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_f...
圆桌｜回应美国智库之声：中国专家眼中欧洲在中美博弈间的抉择之道
澎湃，澎湃新闻，澎湃新闻网，新闻与思想，澎湃是植根于中国上海的时政思想类互联网平台，以最活跃的原创新闻与最冷静的思想分析为两翼，是互联网技术创新与新闻价值传承的结合体，致力于问答式新闻与新闻追踪功能的实践。
m.thepaper.cn
November 18, 2025 at 6:41 AM
Worth a read (in Chinese or translation): how Chinese scholars see Europe: m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_f...
Can only be a good Tuesday when it starts with this on your bluesky feed.
Good morning and a totally tremendous Tuesday everybody. Let's start the day with a healthy breakfast - just like the squirrels in our garden.
[📷Nikon D850 f/7,1 1/200 460mm ISO 4000]
[📷Nikon D850 f/7,1 1/200 460mm ISO 4000]
November 18, 2025 at 6:39 AM
Can only be a good Tuesday when it starts with this on your bluesky feed.
I always argued that FCAS was too big too fail, but seeing this, I'm not that confident anymore...
High-level Franco-German meetings are happening this week. In them, they will try to save FCAS - or save face while quietly abandoning FCAS.
FT reports the joint fighter jet+ programme could continue - without the actual fighter jet.
FT reports the joint fighter jet+ programme could continue - without the actual fighter jet.
Berlin and Paris discuss scrapping joint fighter to focus on air ‘combat cloud’
Proposed downsizing of €100bn flagship defence project follows feuding by Airbus and Dassault
on.ft.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:25 AM
I always argued that FCAS was too big too fail, but seeing this, I'm not that confident anymore...
Very refreshing kind of outlook to 2026: www.economist.com/the-world-ah...
Homer’s “Odyssey” offers lessons for navigating 2026
Christopher Nolan’s version of Homer’s “The Odyssey” opens in July. The story offers advice to those navigating the ups and downs of 2026
www.economist.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Very refreshing kind of outlook to 2026: www.economist.com/the-world-ah...
German finance minister is in China today - something to follow:
Statement from German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil before his departure for China ticks the right boxes:
✅ Rare earths
✅ Overcapacities
✅ Russia/Ukraine
But dialogue with China has not led to “solutions” as he states here for years. So Germany should be clear-eyed on what that can deliver
✅ Rare earths
✅ Overcapacities
✅ Russia/Ukraine
But dialogue with China has not led to “solutions” as he states here for years. So Germany should be clear-eyed on what that can deliver
November 17, 2025 at 9:14 AM
German finance minister is in China today - something to follow:
When I started my PhD on informal minilateral defence cooperation in Europe in 2020, the topic was quite niche. Now you can even read about smaller coalitions and flexibility in Financial Times: www.ft.com/content/370f...
Coalitions of the willing are Europe’s path to ever closer union
A more pragmatic form of federalism could be the key to unlocking progress on important issues
www.ft.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:13 AM
When I started my PhD on informal minilateral defence cooperation in Europe in 2020, the topic was quite niche. Now you can even read about smaller coalitions and flexibility in Financial Times: www.ft.com/content/370f...
Just sharing this beautiful Zürich sunrise (yesterday) as a reminder to disconnect on the weekend and do things you enjoy. 💫
November 15, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Just sharing this beautiful Zürich sunrise (yesterday) as a reminder to disconnect on the weekend and do things you enjoy. 💫
This was clearly my favourite read of the week.
@ilketoygur.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social paint a gloomy picture without being alarmist, and suggest clear yet bold steps without being too idealistic.
@ilketoygur.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social paint a gloomy picture without being alarmist, and suggest clear yet bold steps without being too idealistic.
The EU’s only real path forward is to move from hesitation to decision and action, write Ilke Toygür and Catherine de Vries @ecfrpower.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47EDcz1
https://bit.ly/47EDcz1
How Europeans can go beyond “limiting unpredictability” and respond to the MAGA doctrine
European leaders must draw up their alternative to the MAGA doctrine and drive deeper integration in the EU…
bit.ly
November 14, 2025 at 8:14 AM
This was clearly my favourite read of the week.
@ilketoygur.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social paint a gloomy picture without being alarmist, and suggest clear yet bold steps without being too idealistic.
@ilketoygur.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social paint a gloomy picture without being alarmist, and suggest clear yet bold steps without being too idealistic.
Mulling about European strategy and how it has (not) changed in the first year of Trump 2.0.
What has changed: "Europe alone" is not just a hypothesis
What has not changed: Europe still afraid to bite
Plus ça change...
More here:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/trump-shoc...
What has changed: "Europe alone" is not just a hypothesis
What has not changed: Europe still afraid to bite
Plus ça change...
More here:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/trump-shoc...
Trump shock 2.0: how European strategy has (not) changed
14 November 2025
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Mulling about European strategy and how it has (not) changed in the first year of Trump 2.0.
What has changed: "Europe alone" is not just a hypothesis
What has not changed: Europe still afraid to bite
Plus ça change...
More here:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/trump-shoc...
What has changed: "Europe alone" is not just a hypothesis
What has not changed: Europe still afraid to bite
Plus ça change...
More here:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/trump-shoc...
Of course…who needs something like progressive climate policy or responsible companies to manage the green transition in 2025? 🫠
🚨🚨Breaking and bad #EU news: Lawmakers in @europarl.europa.eu agreed today to exempt more companies from green reporting rules after the center-right, right-wing and far-right groups allied to pass the EU’s first omnibus simplification package. #omnibus 🧵
www.politico.eu/article/epp-...
www.politico.eu/article/epp-...
EU conservatives vote with far right to approve cuts to green rules
The outcome highlights the EPP’s willingness to abandon its traditional centrist coalition allies.
www.politico.eu
November 13, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Of course…who needs something like progressive climate policy or responsible companies to manage the green transition in 2025? 🫠
This is coming tomorrow on my Substack Geopolitical Europe - AI image this time was on the spot for the first attempt.
Subscribe here and it will land in your inbox tomorrow morning!
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
Subscribe here and it will land in your inbox tomorrow morning!
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 3:52 PM
This is coming tomorrow on my Substack Geopolitical Europe - AI image this time was on the spot for the first attempt.
Subscribe here and it will land in your inbox tomorrow morning!
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
Subscribe here and it will land in your inbox tomorrow morning!
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
Reposted by Gesine Weber
New statement on Nexperia from the Dutch: they are monitoring chip flows and will send officials to Beijing next week
November 13, 2025 at 9:46 AM
New statement on Nexperia from the Dutch: they are monitoring chip flows and will send officials to Beijing next week
Reposted by Gesine Weber
Austria's approach to foreign and security policy always sounds like the SPD's pre-2022 position, but in its most moronic and extreme form.
Veit is setting out to change that. (The Ö stands for Austria.)
Veit is setting out to change that. (The Ö stands for Austria.)
"In Ö gibt es Vorstellung, Außenpolitik sei moralischer Schönwetterraum, wo man „Brücken baut“ & „Konflikte moderiert“. Ein Staat hat 2 Grundaufgaben: Sicherheit & Wohlstand der eigenen Bevölkerung. Das erfordert nüchternes, interessensbasiertes Vorgehen"
www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gese...
www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gese...
„Österreich soll der Nato beitreten“ – Veit Dengler fordert ein Ende der sicherheitspolitischen Illusion
NEOS-Außenpolitiker Veit Dengler fordert den Nato-Beitritt Österreichs. Im Gespräch erklärt er, warum Neutralität kein Schutz ist und wie Russland das politische Wien prägt. Ein Interview.
www.berliner-zeitung.de
November 13, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Austria's approach to foreign and security policy always sounds like the SPD's pre-2022 position, but in its most moronic and extreme form.
Veit is setting out to change that. (The Ö stands for Austria.)
Veit is setting out to change that. (The Ö stands for Austria.)
Ten years ago, Paris was hit by terrorist attacks. As a citizen, it's hard to find appropriate words - especially when you were in France on that day and have lived in Paris for so long. France and Europe remember today. Fluctuat nec mergitur.
🇫🇷 Stade de France, terrasses parisiennes, Bataclan: la France se recueille jeudi pour rendre hommage aux victimes des attentats du 13-Novembre, dix ans après une nuit d'horreur qui a meurtri Paris et Saint-Denis.
➡️ u.afp.com/SnAi
➡️ u.afp.com/SnAi
November 13, 2025 at 8:37 AM
Ten years ago, Paris was hit by terrorist attacks. As a citizen, it's hard to find appropriate words - especially when you were in France on that day and have lived in Paris for so long. France and Europe remember today. Fluctuat nec mergitur.
Reposted by Gesine Weber
En matière de sécurité, la peur n'est jamais une bonne façon de traiter les menaces.
Si on peut les hiérarchiser, il n'est pas bon non plus d'opposer les menaces.
Elles sont multiples.
La menace russe cohabite avec celle du terrorisme. Dans le terrorisme, la menace djihadiste accompagne celle d'UD.
Si on peut les hiérarchiser, il n'est pas bon non plus d'opposer les menaces.
Elles sont multiples.
La menace russe cohabite avec celle du terrorisme. Dans le terrorisme, la menace djihadiste accompagne celle d'UD.
La moitié des Français pensent que la guerre en Ukraine va toucher l’Hexagone. Un risque qui remplace celui du terrorisme islamiste dans la tête de nos voisins?
www.letemps.ch/monde/europe...
www.letemps.ch/monde/europe...
Dix ans après le Bataclan, comment les peurs et les menaces ont évolué en France - Le Temps
La moitié des Français pensent que la guerre en Ukraine va toucher l’Hexagone. Un risque qui remplace celui du terrorisme islamiste dans la tête de nos voisins?
www.letemps.ch
November 13, 2025 at 7:48 AM
En matière de sécurité, la peur n'est jamais une bonne façon de traiter les menaces.
Si on peut les hiérarchiser, il n'est pas bon non plus d'opposer les menaces.
Elles sont multiples.
La menace russe cohabite avec celle du terrorisme. Dans le terrorisme, la menace djihadiste accompagne celle d'UD.
Si on peut les hiérarchiser, il n'est pas bon non plus d'opposer les menaces.
Elles sont multiples.
La menace russe cohabite avec celle du terrorisme. Dans le terrorisme, la menace djihadiste accompagne celle d'UD.
"Today, with large powers like the US, China, and Russia trying to bully smaller ones into submission, this famous case study in political realism is once again relevant."
Really enjoyed this piece by @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social:
euobserver.com/eu-and-the-w...
Really enjoyed this piece by @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social:
euobserver.com/eu-and-the-w...
Panicked by superpowers, mini-states seek EU cover
Small European states now seek protection through deeper EU ties amid growing global power rivalries. The latest example is the principality of Liechtenstein. The lesson seems to be that in a larger c...
euobserver.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:15 PM
"Today, with large powers like the US, China, and Russia trying to bully smaller ones into submission, this famous case study in political realism is once again relevant."
Really enjoyed this piece by @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social:
euobserver.com/eu-and-the-w...
Really enjoyed this piece by @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social:
euobserver.com/eu-and-the-w...
Also a question whether you want to be complicit of the US' approach or whether you still care about a rules-based international order.
I wrote on the UK's reported suspension of some intel sharing with the US on legal grounds. I spoke to several former intel officials & all agreed that they could not think of a comparable case over decades. Some expressed serious concern over retaliation www.economist.com/britain/2025...
November 12, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Also a question whether you want to be complicit of the US' approach or whether you still care about a rules-based international order.
This ⬇️ is often seen as a niche topic in security and defence - but it should not.
First, it's not "defence vs. climate", the two have to go together. Second, there are more links (and also opportunities) than one might think.
First, it's not "defence vs. climate", the two have to go together. Second, there are more links (and also opportunities) than one might think.
❗New Analysis❗
"Decarbonising Defence: Reconciling the Green Agenda with the Reindustrialisation of Europe’s Defence Sector", by Daniel Fiott for ARES Group.
Read
www.iris-france.org/en/decarboni... @aresgroup-eu.bsky.social @danielfiott.bsky.social
"Decarbonising Defence: Reconciling the Green Agenda with the Reindustrialisation of Europe’s Defence Sector", by Daniel Fiott for ARES Group.
Read
www.iris-france.org/en/decarboni... @aresgroup-eu.bsky.social @danielfiott.bsky.social
November 12, 2025 at 9:08 PM
This ⬇️ is often seen as a niche topic in security and defence - but it should not.
First, it's not "defence vs. climate", the two have to go together. Second, there are more links (and also opportunities) than one might think.
First, it's not "defence vs. climate", the two have to go together. Second, there are more links (and also opportunities) than one might think.
Reposted by Gesine Weber
A new book by my colleague @mduque.bsky.social is published by OUP! It's on an extremely timely topic so please take a look!
Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen?
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
The Making of International Status
Abstract. With great power rivalry on the rise again, many worry that struggles for status among states could lead to war. As a growing consensus indicates
academic.oup.com
November 12, 2025 at 2:20 PM
A new book by my colleague @mduque.bsky.social is published by OUP! It's on an extremely timely topic so please take a look!
If Berlin follows through, it will substantially change the balance of power in Europe. But I find the "this is so scary" narratives both amusing and just totally off. Germany is a member of EU and NATO - and there are two key threats (Russia ¨+ US abandonment). 1/3
www.politico.eu/article/germ...
www.politico.eu/article/germ...
Germany’s rearmament upends Europe’s power balance
As Berlin again becomes Europe’s leading military power, Paris and Warsaw face a massive political shift.
www.politico.eu
November 12, 2025 at 2:59 PM
If Berlin follows through, it will substantially change the balance of power in Europe. But I find the "this is so scary" narratives both amusing and just totally off. Germany is a member of EU and NATO - and there are two key threats (Russia ¨+ US abandonment). 1/3
www.politico.eu/article/germ...
www.politico.eu/article/germ...
Just wild (and wildly beautiful tbh).
Shenzhen, going back no more than 45 years, from a rooftop 360 m above ground. A fishing village in 1980, now a 25 million metropolis (where your IPhone comes from),
(And yes, that’s a golf course in the foreground.)
(And yes, that’s a golf course in the foreground.)
November 12, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Just wild (and wildly beautiful tbh).
Lots of nuggets in there on the EU-UK relationship - and lots of room for closer cooperation.
It’s out! Here’s @LordsEUCom Report ‘Unfinished Business: resetting the UK- EU relationship’. The Gov’t have made a strong start, esp on security and defence, but there’s still much to do in turning aspirations and goodwill into workable agreements 1/8
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
publications.parliament.uk
November 12, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Lots of nuggets in there on the EU-UK relationship - and lots of room for closer cooperation.
Belgium-NL cooperation saving night train between France to Germany, gotta love Europe. 🇪🇺
Take that, SNCF! 🤣
European Sleeper to run Paris-Berlin night train from the spring of next year www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
There are hurdles - doing it by then isn’t simple - but this can happen.
European Sleeper to run Paris-Berlin night train from the spring of next year www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
There are hurdles - doing it by then isn’t simple - but this can happen.
Le train de nuit Paris-Berlin abandonné par la SNCF va être relancé par une coopérative belgo-néerlandaise
European Sleeper compte ouvrir les réservations le 16 décembre et démarrer l’exploitation de la ligne entre les capitales française et allemande le 26 mars 2026.
www.lemonde.fr
November 12, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Belgium-NL cooperation saving night train between France to Germany, gotta love Europe. 🇪🇺