Tim Leunig
@timleunig.bsky.social
Policy thoughts: http://timleunig.substack.com Chief Economist Nesta, Director Econ PublicFirst, Vis Prof LSE Sch Public Policy, Vis Fellow Inst for Govt
The relative tax treatment of the employed and the self employed is simply not fair. Action should be taken.
Taxes on the typical salary are now 55% higher than on self-employment income.
The effective tax rate for a self-employed worker equivalent to the median employee in 2025-26 was the second lowest in 50 years, behind only 2024-25 ⤵️ buff.ly/4ppe7Q8
The effective tax rate for a self-employed worker equivalent to the median employee in 2025-26 was the second lowest in 50 years, behind only 2024-25 ⤵️ buff.ly/4ppe7Q8
November 19, 2025 at 1:29 PM
The relative tax treatment of the employed and the self employed is simply not fair. Action should be taken.
Cuting VAT on fuel is a bad policy for so many reasons. If @teamlabouruk.bsky.social / Rachel Reeves chooses this option we will know that this is not a serious government.
How can the Government help families with high energy bills?
Jonny Marshall explains why cutting VAT from bills would *not* be the best approach.
Catch up on the full discussion to find out how the Government can cut costs for three-in-four households ⤵️ buff.ly/aA5q2H3
Jonny Marshall explains why cutting VAT from bills would *not* be the best approach.
Catch up on the full discussion to find out how the Government can cut costs for three-in-four households ⤵️ buff.ly/aA5q2H3
November 19, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Cuting VAT on fuel is a bad policy for so many reasons. If @teamlabouruk.bsky.social / Rachel Reeves chooses this option we will know that this is not a serious government.
Reposted by Tim Leunig
Reposted by Tim Leunig
The Home Secretary says "we have become the destination of choice in Europe, clearly visible to every people smuggler and would-be illegal migrant across the world"
That is a factually untrue claim: the Home Office shows that the UK is fifth, getting 1/10 claims, while Germany gets 1/5 claims
That is a factually untrue claim: the Home Office shows that the UK is fifth, getting 1/10 claims, while Germany gets 1/5 claims
November 17, 2025 at 3:51 PM
The Home Secretary says "we have become the destination of choice in Europe, clearly visible to every people smuggler and would-be illegal migrant across the world"
That is a factually untrue claim: the Home Office shows that the UK is fifth, getting 1/10 claims, while Germany gets 1/5 claims
That is a factually untrue claim: the Home Office shows that the UK is fifth, getting 1/10 claims, while Germany gets 1/5 claims
Has any government ever taken notice of a knight threatening to return their knighthood?
Peter Maxwell-Davies once remarked that the great thing about having a Knighthood was that if the government did something vile, you could publicly threaten to give it back.
November 17, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Has any government ever taken notice of a knight threatening to return their knighthood?
Reposted by Tim Leunig
On any average day in the last 35 years, about 115,000 people left extreme poverty behind. But based on current trends, progress against extreme poverty will come to a halt.
Important slow news story on @ourworldindata.org
ourworldindata.org/end-progress...
Important slow news story on @ourworldindata.org
ourworldindata.org/end-progress...
November 17, 2025 at 8:02 PM
On any average day in the last 35 years, about 115,000 people left extreme poverty behind. But based on current trends, progress against extreme poverty will come to a halt.
Important slow news story on @ourworldindata.org
ourworldindata.org/end-progress...
Important slow news story on @ourworldindata.org
ourworldindata.org/end-progress...
Over the last couple of years I have produced policy ideas on a wide range of topics. This week I propose two near costless ideas that would improve air safety. @boeingdefence.bsky.social @airbus.com timleunig.substack.com/p/how-to-mak... (Free to read)
How to make flying (even) safer
Technology can be our friend
timleunig.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Over the last couple of years I have produced policy ideas on a wide range of topics. This week I propose two near costless ideas that would improve air safety. @boeingdefence.bsky.social @airbus.com timleunig.substack.com/p/how-to-mak... (Free to read)
Hence my preference for a qualitative fiscal assessment...
This has always been been argument against our fiscal framework. You need some kind of debt rule but this kind of last minute flailing around is toxic for policy development.
I know it’s always like this. But one striking thing from the budget kite flying and kite pulling back in, is how major policy decisions are constantly being buffeted around by iterative forecast changes.
All feels a bit of a silly way to be making major economic policy & political decisions.
All feels a bit of a silly way to be making major economic policy & political decisions.
November 14, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Hence my preference for a qualitative fiscal assessment...
Reposted by Tim Leunig
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...
November 14, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...
Reposted by Tim Leunig
Yesterday Ukraine blew up the Novorossiysk oil refinery, which is still burning furiously. Today Russia has been forced to suspend all exports - 2.2 million barrels a day.
That sound you now hear is the Russian economy burning.
That sound you now hear is the Russian economy burning.
November 14, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Yesterday Ukraine blew up the Novorossiysk oil refinery, which is still burning furiously. Today Russia has been forced to suspend all exports - 2.2 million barrels a day.
That sound you now hear is the Russian economy burning.
That sound you now hear is the Russian economy burning.
Reposted by Tim Leunig
The government hopes to launch an 'evidence-based' maths programme to improve numeracy outcomes for children in as many as 5,000 early years settings
schoolsweek.co.uk/5-4m-scheme-...
schoolsweek.co.uk/5-4m-scheme-...
£5.4m maths programme to boost early years numeracy outcomes
The government hopes to launch an 'evidence-based maths programme in 'at least 5,000 settings' to improve numeracy outcomes for children in early years
schoolsweek.co.uk
November 14, 2025 at 7:01 PM
The government hopes to launch an 'evidence-based' maths programme to improve numeracy outcomes for children in as many as 5,000 early years settings
schoolsweek.co.uk/5-4m-scheme-...
schoolsweek.co.uk/5-4m-scheme-...
Indicative that councils are not very good at being capitalist entrepreneurs?
This feels indicative of… something.
Opened a year or two ago in a struggling town, council paid for a capital investment to renew the historic market…. Now the operator can’t afford to do business and is closing down.
www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/ne...
Opened a year or two ago in a struggling town, council paid for a capital investment to renew the historic market…. Now the operator can’t afford to do business and is closing down.
www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/ne...
Market to close after operator steps down
A market is to close after the operators pulled out due to running costs hitting “record levels”.
www.kentonline.co.uk
November 14, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Indicative that councils are not very good at being capitalist entrepreneurs?
Reposted by Tim Leunig
Read 'em and weep. (www.nber.org/system/files...)
November 14, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Read 'em and weep. (www.nber.org/system/files...)
That sounds very plausible. We saw the same with computing. Long lag from invention to adoption. Second long lag from adoption to productivity effects.
November 14, 2025 at 12:24 PM
That sounds very plausible. We saw the same with computing. Long lag from invention to adoption. Second long lag from adoption to productivity effects.
Reposted by Tim Leunig
Why does it take the state five years to do something volunteers have to do in a month?
Why does it take the state five years to do something volunteers have to do in a month?
Welcome
buff.ly
November 13, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Why does it take the state five years to do something volunteers have to do in a month?
100% this. FWIW I think a single earner on minimum wage should be able to buy a cheap terraced house in Chatham, as was the case when I was a kid, growing up there, in that sort of family. Build more f***ing houses! More power to @stephenkb.bsky.social
Anyway: both the state and private developers need to build at far greater rates, the default aim should be 'a dual earner couple on average incomes can live in non-crowded conditions and raise a family', and the model family *for policymakers* should be three for obvious reasons.
November 13, 2025 at 8:03 PM
100% this. FWIW I think a single earner on minimum wage should be able to buy a cheap terraced house in Chatham, as was the case when I was a kid, growing up there, in that sort of family. Build more f***ing houses! More power to @stephenkb.bsky.social
Serious economists think that the cost of Brexit is bigger than the OBR say. 6% of £3000bn is £180bn, about £500m a DAY.
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
November 13, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Serious economists think that the cost of Brexit is bigger than the OBR say. 6% of £3000bn is £180bn, about £500m a DAY.
Me at the Treasury Select Committee yesterday, calling for a fairer, more economically efficient property tax, to replace stamp duty and council tax. Thanks to @fairershare.bsky.social for funding the research, and giving me academic freedom to write it. x.com/i/status/198...
Fairer Share on X: "Great to see @timleunig in the Treasury Committee calling for Stamp Duty & Council Tax to be scrapped and replaced with a simple, fair property tax. This could reduce bills for millions while being revenue neutral. Thank you Tim for your work and support of @FairerShare🏡🙌 https://t.co/hNYMRUJH6q" / X
Great to see @timleunig in the Treasury Committee calling for Stamp Duty & Council Tax to be scrapped and replaced with a simple, fair property tax. This could reduce bills for millions while being revenue neutral. Thank you Tim for your work and support of @FairerShare🏡🙌 https://t.co/hNYMRUJH6q
x.com
November 13, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Me at the Treasury Select Committee yesterday, calling for a fairer, more economically efficient property tax, to replace stamp duty and council tax. Thanks to @fairershare.bsky.social for funding the research, and giving me academic freedom to write it. x.com/i/status/198...
The @nestauk.bsky.social & IFS "Be the Chancellor" tax calculator is just as nerdy! (We calculate the tax for the exchequer, rather than the individual) Prettiness is in the eye of the beholder, but our pink is lovely @danneidle.bsky.social @helenmiller.bsky.social www.nesta.org.uk/data-visuali...
November 13, 2025 at 3:30 PM
The @nestauk.bsky.social & IFS "Be the Chancellor" tax calculator is just as nerdy! (We calculate the tax for the exchequer, rather than the individual) Prettiness is in the eye of the beholder, but our pink is lovely @danneidle.bsky.social @helenmiller.bsky.social www.nesta.org.uk/data-visuali...
I would go further - why not have very small rises in fuel duty every month, or even better, say that fuel duty rises by 0.1p every X days? @resolutionfoundation.org
The value of Fuel Duty is now at historic lows, having fallen by 23p per litre (or a third) in real terms over the past decade.
It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade.
Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.
It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade.
Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.
November 13, 2025 at 3:22 PM
I would go further - why not have very small rises in fuel duty every month, or even better, say that fuel duty rises by 0.1p every X days? @resolutionfoundation.org
Amazing people to work with...
This is a great opportunity to work with our founder, @maxroser.bsky.social, and colleagues at Oxford — and the data produced by the project will be hosted on Our World in Data.
We’re recruiting a Postdoctoral Researcher to join a new Oxford Martin programme led by renowned innovation scholars: Prof @maxroser.bsky.social, Prof @doynefarmer.bsky.social & Dr @francoislafond.bsky.social.
Help shape global insights into how technologies evolve.
Link in thread ⬇️
Help shape global insights into how technologies evolve.
Link in thread ⬇️
November 13, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Amazing people to work with...
This is as absurd as saying that @kewgardens.bsky.social is ruined because it is surrounded by houses. What nonsense from Monty Don and Alan Titchmarsh (who once pronounced me a national treasure, but that is another story...)
Important to be clear here that the proposed homes wouldn't mean demolishing the 18th century garden - it's just that they might possibly be visible from it. What appallingly selfish behaviour.
November 12, 2025 at 9:36 AM
This is as absurd as saying that @kewgardens.bsky.social is ruined because it is surrounded by houses. What nonsense from Monty Don and Alan Titchmarsh (who once pronounced me a national treasure, but that is another story...)
Reposted by Tim Leunig
Important to be clear here that the proposed homes wouldn't mean demolishing the 18th century garden - it's just that they might possibly be visible from it. What appallingly selfish behaviour.
November 10, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Important to be clear here that the proposed homes wouldn't mean demolishing the 18th century garden - it's just that they might possibly be visible from it. What appallingly selfish behaviour.
This week I have written about whether the government's proposed changes to school accountability - Progress 8 - make sense (£/free trial). timleunig.substack.com/p/school-sta... @daisychristo.bsky.social @branwenjeffreys.bsky.social @schoolsweek.bsky.social @beckyfrancis.bsky.social
School standards
What to do about secondary school accountability measures
timleunig.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:03 PM
This week I have written about whether the government's proposed changes to school accountability - Progress 8 - make sense (£/free trial). timleunig.substack.com/p/school-sta... @daisychristo.bsky.social @branwenjeffreys.bsky.social @schoolsweek.bsky.social @beckyfrancis.bsky.social
Reposted by Tim Leunig
Want some growth on a Sunday lunchtime?
Some policy ideas on how to get it from @timleunig.bsky.social in this episode of the Economics Show
Some policy ideas on how to get it from @timleunig.bsky.social in this episode of the Economics Show
How to kickstart the UK economy. With Tim Leunig — The Economics Show
Many governments in western Europe are grappling with sluggish economic growth and the UK is no exception. From rising unemployment to weak public finances, the UK economy is in the doldrums and there...
overcast.fm
November 9, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Want some growth on a Sunday lunchtime?
Some policy ideas on how to get it from @timleunig.bsky.social in this episode of the Economics Show
Some policy ideas on how to get it from @timleunig.bsky.social in this episode of the Economics Show