Steve Fisher
@stevefisher.bsky.social
Professor of Political Sociology, Trinity College, University of Oxford. https://electionsetc.com
https://substack.com/@stevefisheroxford
https://substack.com/@stevefisheroxford
Reposted by Steve Fisher
From my colleague; paper here dropbox.com/scl/fi/55uok...
new paper by Sean Westwood:
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
November 18, 2025 at 8:10 PM
From my colleague; paper here dropbox.com/scl/fi/55uok...
Reposted by Steve Fisher
NEW – Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months | @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/ONGzk3a
Read here: buff.ly/ONGzk3a
November 11, 2025 at 12:01 AM
NEW – Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months | @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/ONGzk3a
Read here: buff.ly/ONGzk3a
Reposted by Steve Fisher
This is why I wouldn’t put too much stock in current MRP results showing reform majority - voters can and do tactically co-ordinate as we saw last July with anti-Con tactical voting. Indeed, strong MRP results for Reform may help inform and encourage anti-Farage tactical voting.
It's easy to look at stuff like this and assume the next general election is going to a mess. But there are 650 individual contests — in which voters are pretty adept at working out which lever they need to pull to get the result they want.
October 24, 2025 at 6:30 AM
This is why I wouldn’t put too much stock in current MRP results showing reform majority - voters can and do tactically co-ordinate as we saw last July with anti-Con tactical voting. Indeed, strong MRP results for Reform may help inform and encourage anti-Farage tactical voting.
Reposted by Steve Fisher
Caerphilly, Senedd constituency by-election result:
PC: 47.4% (+19.0)
REF: 36.0% (+34.2)
LAB: 11.0% (-34.9)
CON: 2.0% (-15.3)
GRN: 1.5% (+1.5)
LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2)
GWL: 0.3% (+0.3)
UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)
Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.
PC: 47.4% (+19.0)
REF: 36.0% (+34.2)
LAB: 11.0% (-34.9)
CON: 2.0% (-15.3)
GRN: 1.5% (+1.5)
LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2)
GWL: 0.3% (+0.3)
UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)
Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.
October 24, 2025 at 1:14 AM
Caerphilly, Senedd constituency by-election result:
PC: 47.4% (+19.0)
REF: 36.0% (+34.2)
LAB: 11.0% (-34.9)
CON: 2.0% (-15.3)
GRN: 1.5% (+1.5)
LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2)
GWL: 0.3% (+0.3)
UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)
Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.
PC: 47.4% (+19.0)
REF: 36.0% (+34.2)
LAB: 11.0% (-34.9)
CON: 2.0% (-15.3)
GRN: 1.5% (+1.5)
LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2)
GWL: 0.3% (+0.3)
UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2)
Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.
Judge Ted Meron's extraordinary memoire (A Thousand Miracles: From Surviving the Holocaust to Judging Genocide) available for pre-order with 25% off the RRP between 14th-17th October: www.waterstones.com/book/a-thous...
A Thousand Miracles by Theodor Meron | Waterstones
Buy A Thousand Miracles by Theodor Meron from Waterstones today! Click and Collect from your local Waterstones or get FREE UK delivery on orders over £25.
www.waterstones.com
October 14, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Judge Ted Meron's extraordinary memoire (A Thousand Miracles: From Surviving the Holocaust to Judging Genocide) available for pre-order with 25% off the RRP between 14th-17th October: www.waterstones.com/book/a-thous...
Reposted by Steve Fisher
We're looking for new trustees! If you want to see more people cycling in Oxford and be part of making cycling safer, apply to join our board.
We're especially looking for people with financial/ fundraising experience. www.cyclox.org/index.php/wo... #cycling #trustee #Oxford #makeadifference
We're especially looking for people with financial/ fundraising experience. www.cyclox.org/index.php/wo... #cycling #trustee #Oxford #makeadifference
October 13, 2025 at 9:04 AM
We're looking for new trustees! If you want to see more people cycling in Oxford and be part of making cycling safer, apply to join our board.
We're especially looking for people with financial/ fundraising experience. www.cyclox.org/index.php/wo... #cycling #trustee #Oxford #makeadifference
We're especially looking for people with financial/ fundraising experience. www.cyclox.org/index.php/wo... #cycling #trustee #Oxford #makeadifference
Reposted by Steve Fisher
This week on @cleaninguppod.bsky.social I was joined for a 2nd time by @hannahritchie.bsky.social. She's got a new book called Clearing the Air. 50 common questions about climate solutions? 50 little misinformation demons laid to rest! Hannah's is such a valuable voice. youtu.be/voLbbuPEWY4?...
The Truth About Renewables, EVs & Lab-Grown Meat | Ep223: Hannah Ritchie
YouTube video by Cleaning Up Podcast
youtu.be
September 18, 2025 at 8:18 PM
This week on @cleaninguppod.bsky.social I was joined for a 2nd time by @hannahritchie.bsky.social. She's got a new book called Clearing the Air. 50 common questions about climate solutions? 50 little misinformation demons laid to rest! Hannah's is such a valuable voice. youtu.be/voLbbuPEWY4?...
Reposted by Steve Fisher
If you’re on academia dot edu, let me suggest that you strongly consider deleting your account.
September 17, 2025 at 7:09 PM
If you’re on academia dot edu, let me suggest that you strongly consider deleting your account.
Reposted by Steve Fisher
If you can see past Angela Rayner, PMQs, that Father Ted bloke, and Kim and Vlad, etc. etc., this, just out in @theconversation.com, on @zackpolanski.bsky.social and @greenparty.org.uk and its membership, might be of interest. 1/n 🧵
Our survey of Green party members suggests Zack Polanski has the mandate to take his party in a more radical direction
The new leader wants to be radical and a profile of his members suggests they will follow him.
theconversation.com
September 3, 2025 at 1:07 PM
If you can see past Angela Rayner, PMQs, that Father Ted bloke, and Kim and Vlad, etc. etc., this, just out in @theconversation.com, on @zackpolanski.bsky.social and @greenparty.org.uk and its membership, might be of interest. 1/n 🧵
Reposted by Steve Fisher
The lovely people @britishelectionstudy.com released the random probaility data which means we can begin to unravel some unanswered questions about turnout in 2024.
A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.
A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.
August 29, 2025 at 4:45 PM
The lovely people @britishelectionstudy.com released the random probaility data which means we can begin to unravel some unanswered questions about turnout in 2024.
A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.
A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.
Reposted by Steve Fisher
NEW
Yes, an incoming illiberal and radical UK government would have absolute constitutional power
By me
Substack:
emptycity.substack.com/p/yes-an-inc...
Personal blog:
davidallengreen.com/2025/08/yes-...
Yes, an incoming illiberal and radical UK government would have absolute constitutional power
By me
Substack:
emptycity.substack.com/p/yes-an-inc...
Personal blog:
davidallengreen.com/2025/08/yes-...
Yes, an incoming illiberal and radical UK government would have absolute constitutional power
27th August 2025 Only good fortune has prevented previous governments from misusing our constitutional arrangements more than they did * The constitution of the United Kingdom provides for two R…
davidallengreen.com
August 27, 2025 at 9:46 AM
NEW
Yes, an incoming illiberal and radical UK government would have absolute constitutional power
By me
Substack:
emptycity.substack.com/p/yes-an-inc...
Personal blog:
davidallengreen.com/2025/08/yes-...
Yes, an incoming illiberal and radical UK government would have absolute constitutional power
By me
Substack:
emptycity.substack.com/p/yes-an-inc...
Personal blog:
davidallengreen.com/2025/08/yes-...
Reposted by Steve Fisher
Excited to share our new paper in Political Analysis co-authored with Neil Ketchley, @aasiegel.bsky.social and Mossaab Bagdouri! 📢
We introduce an open-source, computationally light method for measuring media criticism—a key marker of media freedom and democratization.
We introduce an open-source, computationally light method for measuring media criticism—a key marker of media freedom and democratization.
August 26, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Excited to share our new paper in Political Analysis co-authored with Neil Ketchley, @aasiegel.bsky.social and Mossaab Bagdouri! 📢
We introduce an open-source, computationally light method for measuring media criticism—a key marker of media freedom and democratization.
We introduce an open-source, computationally light method for measuring media criticism—a key marker of media freedom and democratization.
Reposted by Steve Fisher
Hundreds of words from the BBC attempting to provide context to Reform’s plans to revive fracking and not once does it mention greenhouse gas emissions or climate change.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Get ready for fracking, Reform UK tells energy firms
The party is serious about going after shale gas - but critics argue it's too difficult and costly.
www.bbc.co.uk
August 25, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Hundreds of words from the BBC attempting to provide context to Reform’s plans to revive fracking and not once does it mention greenhouse gas emissions or climate change.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Steve Fisher
At next week's RSS conference I'll be presenting a poster (a first for me...it's about time!)
"Tetraplot displays of UK General Election results" shows how to graph GE 2024 vote shares across 4 parties in a useful way.
Full PDF poster at:
github.com/DavidFirth/t...
"Tetraplot displays of UK General Election results" shows how to graph GE 2024 vote shares across 4 parties in a useful way.
Full PDF poster at:
github.com/DavidFirth/t...
August 26, 2025 at 4:11 PM
At next week's RSS conference I'll be presenting a poster (a first for me...it's about time!)
"Tetraplot displays of UK General Election results" shows how to graph GE 2024 vote shares across 4 parties in a useful way.
Full PDF poster at:
github.com/DavidFirth/t...
"Tetraplot displays of UK General Election results" shows how to graph GE 2024 vote shares across 4 parties in a useful way.
Full PDF poster at:
github.com/DavidFirth/t...
Reposted by Steve Fisher
Local council by-elections, compiled by David Cowling docs.google.com/document/d/1...
August 25, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Local council by-elections, compiled by David Cowling docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Reposted by Steve Fisher
Apropos of nothing, a reminder that German stock markets kept climbing in an almost uninterrupted fashion in the run-up to WW2. Investors are really, really bad at pricing serious institutional and political risks.
August 26, 2025 at 1:50 AM
Apropos of nothing, a reminder that German stock markets kept climbing in an almost uninterrupted fashion in the run-up to WW2. Investors are really, really bad at pricing serious institutional and political risks.
Reposted by Steve Fisher
57% of Britons say immigration is one of the most important issues facing the country, the highest level recorded by YouGov's tracker since December 2015
Immigration: 57% (+3 from 16-18 August)
Economy: 51% (-2)
Health: 30% (-1)
Crime: 22% (-3)
Housing: 20% (+1)
Defence: 17% (-1)
Immigration: 57% (+3 from 16-18 August)
Economy: 51% (-2)
Health: 30% (-1)
Crime: 22% (-3)
Housing: 20% (+1)
Defence: 17% (-1)
August 26, 2025 at 1:39 PM
57% of Britons say immigration is one of the most important issues facing the country, the highest level recorded by YouGov's tracker since December 2015
Immigration: 57% (+3 from 16-18 August)
Economy: 51% (-2)
Health: 30% (-1)
Crime: 22% (-3)
Housing: 20% (+1)
Defence: 17% (-1)
Immigration: 57% (+3 from 16-18 August)
Economy: 51% (-2)
Health: 30% (-1)
Crime: 22% (-3)
Housing: 20% (+1)
Defence: 17% (-1)
Reposted by Steve Fisher
If you like local by-elections (and if not, why not?) you should be following @andrewteale.me.uk and reading his Previews, including one on Cranford open.substack.com/pub/andrewsp...
August 21, 2025 at 12:46 PM
If you like local by-elections (and if not, why not?) you should be following @andrewteale.me.uk and reading his Previews, including one on Cranford open.substack.com/pub/andrewsp...
Reposted by Steve Fisher
💷 'Council Tax is probably the most regressive property tax in the world.'
@inetoxford.bsky.social and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social's Prof John Muellbauer proposes a two-part solution to the fairer taxation of property in the UK ⬇️
@inetoxford.bsky.social and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social's Prof John Muellbauer proposes a two-part solution to the fairer taxation of property in the UK ⬇️
Expert Comment: A property wealth tax is now politically feasible |
John Muellbauer, Senior Research Fellow at Nuffield College, Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics, and Senior Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of
www.ox.ac.uk
August 21, 2025 at 12:48 PM
💷 'Council Tax is probably the most regressive property tax in the world.'
@inetoxford.bsky.social and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social's Prof John Muellbauer proposes a two-part solution to the fairer taxation of property in the UK ⬇️
@inetoxford.bsky.social and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social's Prof John Muellbauer proposes a two-part solution to the fairer taxation of property in the UK ⬇️
Reposted by Steve Fisher
@sarahobolt.bsky.social is EPSS President & @simonhix.bsky.social is EPSS President-Elect.
👉🏽 Neither currently serves on the EPSA Council or holds any official position within EPSA.
5/
👉🏽 Neither currently serves on the EPSA Council or holds any official position within EPSA.
5/
August 7, 2025 at 4:28 PM
@sarahobolt.bsky.social is EPSS President & @simonhix.bsky.social is EPSS President-Elect.
👉🏽 Neither currently serves on the EPSA Council or holds any official position within EPSA.
5/
👉🏽 Neither currently serves on the EPSA Council or holds any official position within EPSA.
5/
Reposted by Steve Fisher
We believe there’s room for multiple poli sci conferences in Europe, just like in the US & other regions.
🔝 But if you’re looking to support a Europe-based not-for-profit member-led organization, submit your work to 1️⃣ EPSS conference:
📍 Belfast
📅 18–20 June 2026
📝 epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
4/
🔝 But if you’re looking to support a Europe-based not-for-profit member-led organization, submit your work to 1️⃣ EPSS conference:
📍 Belfast
📅 18–20 June 2026
📝 epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
4/
EPSS 2026 Conference | June 18–20 | ICC Belfast, UK
Join top political scientists for the EPSS 2026 Annual Conference in Belfast. Submit papers, attend panels, and network with fellow researchers.
epssnet.org
August 7, 2025 at 4:28 PM
We believe there’s room for multiple poli sci conferences in Europe, just like in the US & other regions.
🔝 But if you’re looking to support a Europe-based not-for-profit member-led organization, submit your work to 1️⃣ EPSS conference:
📍 Belfast
📅 18–20 June 2026
📝 epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
4/
🔝 But if you’re looking to support a Europe-based not-for-profit member-led organization, submit your work to 1️⃣ EPSS conference:
📍 Belfast
📅 18–20 June 2026
📝 epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
4/
Reposted by Steve Fisher
EPSS was founded by political scientists who believe that the European political science community deserves a:
▶️ member-driven
▶️ transparent
▶️ non-profit association
▶️ that reinvests surplus funds back into the community.
🙌🏽 Support that vision? Become a member: epssnet.org/sign-up/#join
3/
▶️ member-driven
▶️ transparent
▶️ non-profit association
▶️ that reinvests surplus funds back into the community.
🙌🏽 Support that vision? Become a member: epssnet.org/sign-up/#join
3/
Join EPSS | Sign Up for Political Science Network
Create your EPSS account to access events, connect with scholars, and stay updated on political science news and opportunities.
epssnet.org
August 7, 2025 at 4:28 PM
EPSS was founded by political scientists who believe that the European political science community deserves a:
▶️ member-driven
▶️ transparent
▶️ non-profit association
▶️ that reinvests surplus funds back into the community.
🙌🏽 Support that vision? Become a member: epssnet.org/sign-up/#join
3/
▶️ member-driven
▶️ transparent
▶️ non-profit association
▶️ that reinvests surplus funds back into the community.
🙌🏽 Support that vision? Become a member: epssnet.org/sign-up/#join
3/
Reposted by Steve Fisher
A solar farm at Stratton Audley, northeast of Bicester, is to go ahead after the developers won an appeal against Cherwell District Council. The Government’s Planning Inspectorate concluded the visual impact of Padbury Brook Solar Farm would not be enough to justify refusal.
June 3, 2025 at 3:15 PM
A solar farm at Stratton Audley, northeast of Bicester, is to go ahead after the developers won an appeal against Cherwell District Council. The Government’s Planning Inspectorate concluded the visual impact of Padbury Brook Solar Farm would not be enough to justify refusal.
Reposted by Steve Fisher
The percentage of Americans who have perceived global warming as a threat to future generations has grown from 60% in 2008 to 72% in 2024.
Learn more: climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications...
Learn more: climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications...
June 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The percentage of Americans who have perceived global warming as a threat to future generations has grown from 60% in 2008 to 72% in 2024.
Learn more: climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications...
Learn more: climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications...
Reposted by Steve Fisher
The case for using "global majority" by institutions should be rejected unless + until it can be shown
- most people understand what it means (most don't)
- most people it is about would like it used (most don't)
I find it a deeply incoherent fiction + a highly regressive term in some many ways
- most people understand what it means (most don't)
- most people it is about would like it used (most don't)
I find it a deeply incoherent fiction + a highly regressive term in some many ways
May 28, 2025 at 10:58 AM
The case for using "global majority" by institutions should be rejected unless + until it can be shown
- most people understand what it means (most don't)
- most people it is about would like it used (most don't)
I find it a deeply incoherent fiction + a highly regressive term in some many ways
- most people understand what it means (most don't)
- most people it is about would like it used (most don't)
I find it a deeply incoherent fiction + a highly regressive term in some many ways