Sam Thorpe
@samthorpe.bsky.social
Researching the economics of inequality, tax, capital flows, and industrial policy. Formerly federal fiscal policy @ Brookings; research + organizing @ UChicago.
Really interesting new paper that changed my priors on recent shifts in college education! In short, strong labor markets explain most of the decline in community college enrollments, while four-year enrollments have actually remained similar. See also www.chalkbeat.org/2025/11/11/i....
Joe Winkelmann & I have released a new @wheelockpolicybu.bsky.social working paper:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
We show stronger labor markets since 2009 explain most of the decline in community college enrollments.
wheelockpolicycenter.org/high-quality...
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
We show stronger labor markets since 2009 explain most of the decline in community college enrollments.
wheelockpolicycenter.org/high-quality...
November 12, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Really interesting new paper that changed my priors on recent shifts in college education! In short, strong labor markets explain most of the decline in community college enrollments, while four-year enrollments have actually remained similar. See also www.chalkbeat.org/2025/11/11/i....
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
These big wins will embolden Dems to take on Trump's lawbreaking and show there's a price for GOP enabling of him. Folks hate to hear this, but normal patterns are asserting themselves: Liberalism isn't dead, Rs are likely to lose in 2026, and Trump is really unpopular, not a magical exception.
November 5, 2025 at 1:30 AM
These big wins will embolden Dems to take on Trump's lawbreaking and show there's a price for GOP enabling of him. Folks hate to hear this, but normal patterns are asserting themselves: Liberalism isn't dead, Rs are likely to lose in 2026, and Trump is really unpopular, not a magical exception.
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
The Pentagon “inviting in” private equity “to refurbish some real estate, or even raise financing against the real estate” and to develop “financing tools for the army’s supply chain and overall capex”: surely the apotheosis of long-hegemonic-cycle theory. Arrighi undefeated.
on.ft.com/3WPMwcU
on.ft.com/3WPMwcU
October 21, 2025 at 7:42 AM
The Pentagon “inviting in” private equity “to refurbish some real estate, or even raise financing against the real estate” and to develop “financing tools for the army’s supply chain and overall capex”: surely the apotheosis of long-hegemonic-cycle theory. Arrighi undefeated.
on.ft.com/3WPMwcU
on.ft.com/3WPMwcU
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
Trump's mechanism to pay the troops during the shutdown is by far the most illegal budgetary action he's taken as POTUS, potentially setting the stage to break everything.
It's also needless because Congress would easily pass a troop pay bill if Johnson were willing to gavel in.
Long thread.
It's also needless because Congress would easily pass a troop pay bill if Johnson were willing to gavel in.
Long thread.
October 15, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Trump's mechanism to pay the troops during the shutdown is by far the most illegal budgetary action he's taken as POTUS, potentially setting the stage to break everything.
It's also needless because Congress would easily pass a troop pay bill if Johnson were willing to gavel in.
Long thread.
It's also needless because Congress would easily pass a troop pay bill if Johnson were willing to gavel in.
Long thread.
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
BREAKING via WSJ
The Trump administration is planning sweeping changes in criminal division at the IRS.
Full Story: on.wsj.com/3LbVFtK
The Trump administration is planning sweeping changes in criminal division at the IRS.
Full Story: on.wsj.com/3LbVFtK
October 16, 2025 at 12:12 AM
BREAKING via WSJ
The Trump administration is planning sweeping changes in criminal division at the IRS.
Full Story: on.wsj.com/3LbVFtK
The Trump administration is planning sweeping changes in criminal division at the IRS.
Full Story: on.wsj.com/3LbVFtK
RIP D'Angelo. Your favorite musician's favorite musician. Responsible for three of the greatest albums of all time, and played a hand in dozens of others. Such a loss.
Before deciding to pursue economics, I thought I was going to spend my life as a musician. Back then, D was my biggest inspiration.
Before deciding to pursue economics, I thought I was going to spend my life as a musician. Back then, D was my biggest inspiration.
D'Angelo talks funk and plays a P-Funk tune.
YouTube video by Nelson George
youtu.be
October 14, 2025 at 6:55 PM
RIP D'Angelo. Your favorite musician's favorite musician. Responsible for three of the greatest albums of all time, and played a hand in dozens of others. Such a loss.
Before deciding to pursue economics, I thought I was going to spend my life as a musician. Back then, D was my biggest inspiration.
Before deciding to pursue economics, I thought I was going to spend my life as a musician. Back then, D was my biggest inspiration.
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
As I read this, I keep thinking over and over again about the two major groups I see in politics and policy spaces: folks who take opinion polls as gospel and folks who see them as indicators of what people believe at the moment that can be *shaped* into something else.
we’ll see how his mayoral tenure shakes out but i am convinced that Mamdani has the juice. not just the charisma to win an election but the temperament to govern and the measured pragmatism of someone who genuinely believes what they’re saying and wants to accomplish real things.
Inside the Improbable, Audacious and (So Far) Unstoppable Rise of Zohran Mamdani
www.nytimes.com
October 14, 2025 at 2:38 PM
As I read this, I keep thinking over and over again about the two major groups I see in politics and policy spaces: folks who take opinion polls as gospel and folks who see them as indicators of what people believe at the moment that can be *shaped* into something else.
Incredibly useful new story by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com on the 'crisis' for young college grads. Most analyses compare mid-20s workers with/without a degree. But as John points out, the relevant comparison group is actually *new entrants* with/without a degree - most non-degree workers enter at 18-19.
What the graduate unemployment story gets wrong
People with a degree are faring better, not worse than their non-graduate counterparts
www.ft.com
October 10, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Incredibly useful new story by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com on the 'crisis' for young college grads. Most analyses compare mid-20s workers with/without a degree. But as John points out, the relevant comparison group is actually *new entrants* with/without a degree - most non-degree workers enter at 18-19.
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
This piece by @beaubaumann.bsky.social is really good and focusing on all the right questions. lpeproject.org/blog/rebuild...
Rebuilding State Authority In A Post-Trump America
In the ruins of the administrative state after Trump, many on the left see an opportunity to design a New Deal-type reconstruction agenda. But building state capacity requires a government that is…
lpeproject.org
October 7, 2025 at 11:23 AM
This piece by @beaubaumann.bsky.social is really good and focusing on all the right questions. lpeproject.org/blog/rebuild...
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
The IMF too long assumed imbalances would recede.
The Fund is now - thankfully - marching back into the global imbalance part of its mandate.
IMF staff just released an interesting new paper.
“Do trade imbalances boost incomes in surplus economies at the expense of deficit economies?
1/
The Fund is now - thankfully - marching back into the global imbalance part of its mandate.
IMF staff just released an interesting new paper.
“Do trade imbalances boost incomes in surplus economies at the expense of deficit economies?
1/
September 28, 2025 at 12:12 PM
The IMF too long assumed imbalances would recede.
The Fund is now - thankfully - marching back into the global imbalance part of its mandate.
IMF staff just released an interesting new paper.
“Do trade imbalances boost incomes in surplus economies at the expense of deficit economies?
1/
The Fund is now - thankfully - marching back into the global imbalance part of its mandate.
IMF staff just released an interesting new paper.
“Do trade imbalances boost incomes in surplus economies at the expense of deficit economies?
1/
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
Alright here we go: You Love America.
I started writing this last year; it had this same title last year; depressingly little had to be changed for it to fit in to this moment.
open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...
I started writing this last year; it had this same title last year; depressingly little had to be changed for it to fit in to this moment.
open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...
You Love America
A covenant with death, and an agreement with hell; Yale, Du Bois, Bagehot, Pynchon, Fitzgerald
open.substack.com
September 23, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Alright here we go: You Love America.
I started writing this last year; it had this same title last year; depressingly little had to be changed for it to fit in to this moment.
open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...
I started writing this last year; it had this same title last year; depressingly little had to be changed for it to fit in to this moment.
open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
Oh wow anti-trust, wealth taxation...you are telling me these can be tools to promote democratic stability and there were a whole boatload of centrist economists who couldn't think beyond deadweight loss and consumer welfare?
September 18, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Oh wow anti-trust, wealth taxation...you are telling me these can be tools to promote democratic stability and there were a whole boatload of centrist economists who couldn't think beyond deadweight loss and consumer welfare?
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
So many immediate horrors right now, but I appreciated the invitation from @donmoyn.bsky.social to reflect on the future and how social scientists could help with the eventual federal government rebuilding.
As @sbagen.bsky.social has argued persuasively, we need to start now with that effort! 1/
As @sbagen.bsky.social has argued persuasively, we need to start now with that effort! 1/
State capacity that is being gutted now will need to be rebuilt in the future. Alex Hertel-Fernandez looks back at his time in the Biden administration to identify ways that governments could better use social scientists to improve public services.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-social...
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-social...
How social scientists could help to rebuild the federal government
Lessons from my time in the Biden administration
donmoynihan.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 4:11 PM
So many immediate horrors right now, but I appreciated the invitation from @donmoyn.bsky.social to reflect on the future and how social scientists could help with the eventual federal government rebuilding.
As @sbagen.bsky.social has argued persuasively, we need to start now with that effort! 1/
As @sbagen.bsky.social has argued persuasively, we need to start now with that effort! 1/
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
this from my piece on charlie kirk is probably the most important takeaway if you want to know why bad faith, right-wing voices in media are treated as just another set of peers
September 16, 2025 at 11:49 AM
this from my piece on charlie kirk is probably the most important takeaway if you want to know why bad faith, right-wing voices in media are treated as just another set of peers
This is fascinating. Who in the admin is pushing to end corporate short-termism? Is this just intended to hide reporting on the current economic slowdown, or will it mark a genuine shift in policy?
www.ft.com/content/d5d4...
www.ft.com/content/d5d4...
September 15, 2025 at 12:40 PM
This is fascinating. Who in the admin is pushing to end corporate short-termism? Is this just intended to hide reporting on the current economic slowdown, or will it mark a genuine shift in policy?
www.ft.com/content/d5d4...
www.ft.com/content/d5d4...
Aaron Klein with a really clear summary of why the Lisa Cook firing is so important: in Februrary, the regional Fed presidents are up for reapproval. If Cook is successfully fired before then, Trump appointees would have the majority necessary to reject them and completely take control of the FOMC.
Opinion | Here’s How Trump Takes Over the Fed
www.nytimes.com
September 15, 2025 at 10:05 AM
Aaron Klein with a really clear summary of why the Lisa Cook firing is so important: in Februrary, the regional Fed presidents are up for reapproval. If Cook is successfully fired before then, Trump appointees would have the majority necessary to reject them and completely take control of the FOMC.
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
“Mr. Van Hollen saw a different lesson [from his role in the Abrego Garcia case]. ‘This finger in the wind stuff has got to end. We also need to stop deluding ourselves that the problem is all about messaging, or about volume, or style. We don’t just need to fight. We need to fight for something.’”
September 13, 2025 at 11:24 PM
“Mr. Van Hollen saw a different lesson [from his role in the Abrego Garcia case]. ‘This finger in the wind stuff has got to end. We also need to stop deluding ourselves that the problem is all about messaging, or about volume, or style. We don’t just need to fight. We need to fight for something.’”
Today in 'stylized facts I'd never really internalized': the drop in the US employment + LFP rates during and after 2008 was so severe that we went from among the highest employment rate in the G7 to one of the lowest; just two points above France. (Chart is G7 ex Italy, with US series highlighted.)
September 14, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Today in 'stylized facts I'd never really internalized': the drop in the US employment + LFP rates during and after 2008 was so severe that we went from among the highest employment rate in the G7 to one of the lowest; just two points above France. (Chart is G7 ex Italy, with US series highlighted.)
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
Pluralistic democracy depends on people feeling safe enough in the public square to express themselves and participate in the political process.
If they don’t, because the public square is dominated by intimidation and violent threat, democracy must perish.
If they don’t, because the public square is dominated by intimidation and violent threat, democracy must perish.
September 14, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Pluralistic democracy depends on people feeling safe enough in the public square to express themselves and participate in the political process.
If they don’t, because the public square is dominated by intimidation and violent threat, democracy must perish.
If they don’t, because the public square is dominated by intimidation and violent threat, democracy must perish.
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
The message should not be that political violence is bad because it targeted a good guy who was “practicing politics the right way” (which Kirk definitely was not). Political violence is bad because it inherently corrodes the democratic polity, because it makes democracy impossible.
September 14, 2025 at 1:13 PM
The message should not be that political violence is bad because it targeted a good guy who was “practicing politics the right way” (which Kirk definitely was not). Political violence is bad because it inherently corrodes the democratic polity, because it makes democracy impossible.
Seems like a really interesting project - the first essays are already worth a read.
🚀 Launching with 100 Ideas in 100 Days
The Democracy Project at @nyulaw.bsky.social is publishing a daily essay from authors across the ideological spectrum to explore the issues facing democracy today.
Read the first three essays: democracyproject.org
The Democracy Project at @nyulaw.bsky.social is publishing a daily essay from authors across the ideological spectrum to explore the issues facing democracy today.
Read the first three essays: democracyproject.org
The Democracy Project
A broad range of views on democracy to help break the stalemate caused by partisan conflict.
democracyproject.org
September 9, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Seems like a really interesting project - the first essays are already worth a read.
It was already clear that EJ Antoni was a remarkably unqualified pick to lead BLS. After this reporting, it's also clear that he is incredibly sexist and homophobic, and suspiciously into Nazi military history. His nomination goes through HELP cmte; Murkowski, Collins, and Hawley are all members.
Trump’s pick to lead Bureau of Labor Statistics ran anonymous Twitter account filled with sexually degrading and bigoted attacks | CNN Politics
President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics operated a since-deleted Twitter account that featured sexually degrading attacks on Kamala Harris, derogatory remarks about gay...
edition.cnn.com
September 5, 2025 at 8:47 PM
It was already clear that EJ Antoni was a remarkably unqualified pick to lead BLS. After this reporting, it's also clear that he is incredibly sexist and homophobic, and suspiciously into Nazi military history. His nomination goes through HELP cmte; Murkowski, Collins, and Hawley are all members.
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
I know there's a lot going on, but it should be getting more attention that the governor of Illinois just credibly accused Texas of planning to literally invade his state.
I unpack how profoundly alarming this is @theunpopulist.net:
I unpack how profoundly alarming this is @theunpopulist.net:
Trump’s Leaked Plan to Deploy the Texas National Guard Against Illinois Will Tear Apart the Union
If it goes forward, it will plunge the country into an unprecedented constitutional crisis
www.theunpopulist.net
September 5, 2025 at 6:17 PM
I know there's a lot going on, but it should be getting more attention that the governor of Illinois just credibly accused Texas of planning to literally invade his state.
I unpack how profoundly alarming this is @theunpopulist.net:
I unpack how profoundly alarming this is @theunpopulist.net:
Reposted by Sam Thorpe
Most work out there argues that it doesn't pay off for center-right parties to move closer to the far-right.
Using some of the best evidence yet, this paper shows that the same is true for center *left* parties.
Crucial finding as these parties increasingly move in a nativist direction.
Using some of the best evidence yet, this paper shows that the same is true for center *left* parties.
Crucial finding as these parties increasingly move in a nativist direction.
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
September 5, 2025 at 7:29 AM
Most work out there argues that it doesn't pay off for center-right parties to move closer to the far-right.
Using some of the best evidence yet, this paper shows that the same is true for center *left* parties.
Crucial finding as these parties increasingly move in a nativist direction.
Using some of the best evidence yet, this paper shows that the same is true for center *left* parties.
Crucial finding as these parties increasingly move in a nativist direction.