Bobby Kogan
@bbkogan.bsky.social
Senior Director of Federal Budget Policy for the Center for American Progress doing budget, tax, and econ.
Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
Pinned
Bobby Kogan
@bbkogan.bsky.social
· Nov 11
Two starter packs from me!
First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!
Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7
First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!
Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7
CBO significantly raised its projections of the interest rate the government pays on its debt. This is a key driver of debt/gdp sustainability.
It also means higher interest rates on credit card debt, auto loans, mortgages, etc. And it means higher prices, since business investments cost more.
It also means higher interest rates on credit card debt, auto loans, mortgages, etc. And it means higher prices, since business investments cost more.
February 13, 2026 at 3:51 PM
CBO significantly raised its projections of the interest rate the government pays on its debt. This is a key driver of debt/gdp sustainability.
It also means higher interest rates on credit card debt, auto loans, mortgages, etc. And it means higher prices, since business investments cost more.
It also means higher interest rates on credit card debt, auto loans, mortgages, etc. And it means higher prices, since business investments cost more.
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
CBP didn’t give her or anyone any water; she asked 3 times accg to other reports. CBP killed a 7yr old.
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
7-Year-Old Migrant Girl Dies Of Dehydration And Shock In U.S. Border Patrol Custody
The girl's death underscores the crisis precipitated by large groups of families seeking asylum where there are inadequate facilities to detain them.
shorturl.at
February 13, 2026 at 1:33 AM
CBP didn’t give her or anyone any water; she asked 3 times accg to other reports. CBP killed a 7yr old.
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
At midnight as Saturday begins, annual funding provided in the DHS bill will lapse, leading to a “DHS-only” shutdown. What that means in reality is complicated. Short 🧵
tl;dr is ICE/CBP continue w/ pay, FEMA largely continues bcuz it has tons of money still usable, TSA continues w/ pay for a bit
tl;dr is ICE/CBP continue w/ pay, FEMA largely continues bcuz it has tons of money still usable, TSA continues w/ pay for a bit
February 13, 2026 at 2:53 PM
At midnight as Saturday begins, annual funding provided in the DHS bill will lapse, leading to a “DHS-only” shutdown. What that means in reality is complicated. Short 🧵
tl;dr is ICE/CBP continue w/ pay, FEMA largely continues bcuz it has tons of money still usable, TSA continues w/ pay for a bit
tl;dr is ICE/CBP continue w/ pay, FEMA largely continues bcuz it has tons of money still usable, TSA continues w/ pay for a bit
Another way of looking at it:
In general, if the blue line is above the orange, debt/gdp will decline
If the Bush tax cuts had expired on schedule and the Trump tax cuts had never been enacted, blue > orange (dashed)
Instead, spending projections are down! But revenue is down MUCH more (dotted)
In general, if the blue line is above the orange, debt/gdp will decline
If the Bush tax cuts had expired on schedule and the Trump tax cuts had never been enacted, blue > orange (dashed)
Instead, spending projections are down! But revenue is down MUCH more (dotted)
February 12, 2026 at 8:47 PM
Another way of looking at it:
In general, if the blue line is above the orange, debt/gdp will decline
If the Bush tax cuts had expired on schedule and the Trump tax cuts had never been enacted, blue > orange (dashed)
Instead, spending projections are down! But revenue is down MUCH more (dotted)
In general, if the blue line is above the orange, debt/gdp will decline
If the Bush tax cuts had expired on schedule and the Trump tax cuts had never been enacted, blue > orange (dashed)
Instead, spending projections are down! But revenue is down MUCH more (dotted)
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
The most important thing to understand about the debt:
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
February 11, 2026 at 4:29 PM
The most important thing to understand about the debt:
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
Great thread from Brendan
NEW: the U.S. Congressional Budget Office has posted its budget and economic outlook--the first full one we've had in a year so the first one reflecting One Big Beautiful Bill and the Trump tariffs.
Going to post observations as I move through it. 🧵
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
Going to post observations as I move through it. 🧵
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
www.cbo.gov
February 11, 2026 at 4:02 PM
Great thread from Brendan
Ah yeah, this is the good stuff! Here's my version, going back to 1792, that instead excludes years w/ major wars and the Great Depression, the Great Recession (+recovery), and the COVID-19 recession (+recovery).
We should note that the 2.1% assumes tariff revenues stay forever, which they won't.
We should note that the 2.1% assumes tariff revenues stay forever, which they won't.
February 11, 2026 at 3:24 PM
Ah yeah, this is the good stuff! Here's my version, going back to 1792, that instead excludes years w/ major wars and the Great Depression, the Great Recession (+recovery), and the COVID-19 recession (+recovery).
We should note that the 2.1% assumes tariff revenues stay forever, which they won't.
We should note that the 2.1% assumes tariff revenues stay forever, which they won't.
CBO is out with its newest budget and economic outlook. One key thing that stands out is they say that US consumers will bear 95% of tariffs, with US businesses bearing 0% on net and foreign businesses bearing 5%.
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
February 11, 2026 at 3:03 PM
CBO is out with its newest budget and economic outlook. One key thing that stands out is they say that US consumers will bear 95% of tariffs, with US businesses bearing 0% on net and foreign businesses bearing 5%.
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
Maybe they’ll just do yet another one-time filibuster carveout and pretend they didn’t
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., tells me Senate Republicans are having a "big meeting tomorrow" to discuss the path forward for SAVE Act. He predicts the Senate won't nuke the filibuster but adds that he's "willing to listen" to ideas on how to proceed.
February 10, 2026 at 1:43 PM
Maybe they’ll just do yet another one-time filibuster carveout and pretend they didn’t
Whales are ungulates, so part of the hoofed mammal line. And specifically they’re part of the even-toed line, like deer and pigs.
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
February 10, 2026 at 3:14 AM
Whales are ungulates, so part of the hoofed mammal line. And specifically they’re part of the even-toed line, like deer and pigs.
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
AOC on DHS Warehouses: I think every American should be alarmed. They are building—and have built—a black box system that disappears people, both immigrants and U.S. citizens alike.
February 10, 2026 at 1:30 AM
AOC on DHS Warehouses: I think every American should be alarmed. They are building—and have built—a black box system that disappears people, both immigrants and U.S. citizens alike.
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
1/ ProPublica collected handwritten letters in mid-January from children held at the Dilley Immigration Processing Center, the same facility where 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos was taken.
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
February 9, 2026 at 12:25 PM
1/ ProPublica collected handwritten letters in mid-January from children held at the Dilley Immigration Processing Center, the same facility where 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos was taken.
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
ICE told nurses this Minneapolis man “purposefully ran headfirst into a brick wall.”
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
February 7, 2026 at 5:54 PM
ICE told nurses this Minneapolis man “purposefully ran headfirst into a brick wall.”
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
the fact that early-stage automated vehicles that still occasionally require remote operation assistance are like several orders of magnitude safer than the average American driver should be the real wakeup call here, not the idea that these vehicles still sometimes need remote operation assistance
February 6, 2026 at 5:34 PM
the fact that early-stage automated vehicles that still occasionally require remote operation assistance are like several orders of magnitude safer than the average American driver should be the real wakeup call here, not the idea that these vehicles still sometimes need remote operation assistance
New piece from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and me showing how the fiscal situation has deteriorated under Trump.
Jared and I are two notable fiscal doves. We explain why doves should reexamine some of our priors.
Crucially, we *must not* cut crucial services when looking at course correction.
Thread
Jared and I are two notable fiscal doves. We explain why doves should reexamine some of our priors.
Crucially, we *must not* cut crucial services when looking at course correction.
Thread
President Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Raises the Fiscal Gap to 2.4 Percent
A combination of higher deficits, higher interest rates, and lower growth has left the United States with a significantly worse fiscal outlook.
www.americanprogress.org
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
New piece from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and me showing how the fiscal situation has deteriorated under Trump.
Jared and I are two notable fiscal doves. We explain why doves should reexamine some of our priors.
Crucially, we *must not* cut crucial services when looking at course correction.
Thread
Jared and I are two notable fiscal doves. We explain why doves should reexamine some of our priors.
Crucially, we *must not* cut crucial services when looking at course correction.
Thread
We should also be clear that Republicans made defunding IRS anti-cheating enforcement literally their number one legislative priority when they retook the House in 2023. Since then they've gotten rid of nearly all the enforcement money from the IRA.
Their goal is making it easier to cheat on taxes.
Their goal is making it easier to cheat on taxes.
It is not surprising that the people who are ideologically committed to the idea that government can't do anything right actually suck at running the government.
February 4, 2026 at 10:21 PM
We should also be clear that Republicans made defunding IRS anti-cheating enforcement literally their number one legislative priority when they retook the House in 2023. Since then they've gotten rid of nearly all the enforcement money from the IRA.
Their goal is making it easier to cheat on taxes.
Their goal is making it easier to cheat on taxes.
It is not surprising that the people who are ideologically committed to the idea that government can't do anything right actually suck at running the government.
February 4, 2026 at 10:19 PM
It is not surprising that the people who are ideologically committed to the idea that government can't do anything right actually suck at running the government.
Rip to the newspaper that ensured the Pentagon Papers were published after Nixon got an injunction against the Times. 🫡
Had a good run, but as with so many cases, a billionaire bought something he didn’t care about and broke it. A tale as old as time.
Had a good run, but as with so many cases, a billionaire bought something he didn’t care about and broke it. A tale as old as time.
February 4, 2026 at 5:03 PM
Rip to the newspaper that ensured the Pentagon Papers were published after Nixon got an injunction against the Times. 🫡
Had a good run, but as with so many cases, a billionaire bought something he didn’t care about and broke it. A tale as old as time.
Had a good run, but as with so many cases, a billionaire bought something he didn’t care about and broke it. A tale as old as time.
House passes bill to end shutdown. Now, all of the govt EXCEPT DHS has funding through end of fiscal year
DHS funding runs through Feb 13. At that point, we're looking at DHS-only shutdown
Importantly, ICE & CBP continue to operate w/ pay. Not much leverage, but this is least bad leverage option
DHS funding runs through Feb 13. At that point, we're looking at DHS-only shutdown
Importantly, ICE & CBP continue to operate w/ pay. Not much leverage, but this is least bad leverage option
House passes bill to end the shutdown and punt on DHS funding, sending it to Trump
Trump has said he'll sign the bill to end the brief shutdown. It funds almost all of government while putting DHS on a stopgap after federal agents killed two people in Minneapolis.
www.nbcnews.com
February 3, 2026 at 7:33 PM
House passes bill to end shutdown. Now, all of the govt EXCEPT DHS has funding through end of fiscal year
DHS funding runs through Feb 13. At that point, we're looking at DHS-only shutdown
Importantly, ICE & CBP continue to operate w/ pay. Not much leverage, but this is least bad leverage option
DHS funding runs through Feb 13. At that point, we're looking at DHS-only shutdown
Importantly, ICE & CBP continue to operate w/ pay. Not much leverage, but this is least bad leverage option
the "party of small government" is really out here being like "can you even imagine how inconvenient it would be if we had to adhere to the constitution"
imagine!!!!!
imagine!!!!!
Mike Johnson speaks out against the use of judicial warrants in immigration cases:
"Imagine if we had to go through the process of getting a judicial warrant"
"Imagine if we had to go through the process of getting a judicial warrant"
February 3, 2026 at 6:14 PM
the "party of small government" is really out here being like "can you even imagine how inconvenient it would be if we had to adhere to the constitution"
imagine!!!!!
imagine!!!!!
Riffing off Brendan's method of juxtaposition in this awesome report, I'd like to offer another comparison:
Food assistance cuts versus new funding for DHS in the "Big Beautiful Bill"
Republicans cut food assistance by $187 billion while providing $191 billion in funding for DHS
Food assistance cuts versus new funding for DHS in the "Big Beautiful Bill"
Republicans cut food assistance by $187 billion while providing $191 billion in funding for DHS
February 3, 2026 at 4:20 PM
Riffing off Brendan's method of juxtaposition in this awesome report, I'd like to offer another comparison:
Food assistance cuts versus new funding for DHS in the "Big Beautiful Bill"
Republicans cut food assistance by $187 billion while providing $191 billion in funding for DHS
Food assistance cuts versus new funding for DHS in the "Big Beautiful Bill"
Republicans cut food assistance by $187 billion while providing $191 billion in funding for DHS
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
Jesus Christ.
ICE agents clash with bystanders in Minneapolis
YouTube video by Associated Press
www.youtube.com
February 3, 2026 at 3:52 PM
Jesus Christ.
Killer report on why the "Big Beautiful Bill" was a disaster from Brendan (whom I yell at to post more on Bluesky about 3 times a week).
When I worked at OMB, Brendan had basically the same job at NEC. Tons and tons of great stuff here.
When I worked at OMB, Brendan had basically the same job at NEC. Tons and tons of great stuff here.
New 25-page @centeronbudget.bsky.social paper from me summarizing the distributional, fiscal, and economic effects of One Big Beautiful Bill's tax cuts and cuts to health care, food assistance, student loans, and climate investments. 🧵
www.cbpp.org/research/fed...
www.cbpp.org/research/fed...
Republican Megabill Trades Essential Support to Low-Income People for Skewed Tax Cuts
The sprawling megabill passed by the Republican-controlled Congress and signed by President Trump in July 2025 will redistribute trillions of dollars upward over the next decade, making it harder for ...
www.cbpp.org
February 3, 2026 at 3:18 PM
Killer report on why the "Big Beautiful Bill" was a disaster from Brendan (whom I yell at to post more on Bluesky about 3 times a week).
When I worked at OMB, Brendan had basically the same job at NEC. Tons and tons of great stuff here.
When I worked at OMB, Brendan had basically the same job at NEC. Tons and tons of great stuff here.
IMO, very important that House Ds ensure the Senate-negotiated deal becomes law so that, in two weeks, when Republicans ask for more money for DHS without any strings attached, we've given Ds the strongest leverage to reject that.
It's a simple, straightforward acceptance/rejection of DHS policy.
It's a simple, straightforward acceptance/rejection of DHS policy.
The funding deal provides us leverage to reject specifically this.
If the Thune/Schumer deal is enacted, then two weeks from now all of the govt EXCEPT DHS will have funding.
Ds must then reject even a penny more for DHS until we can guarantee an end to the madness.
If the Thune/Schumer deal is enacted, then two weeks from now all of the govt EXCEPT DHS will have funding.
Ds must then reject even a penny more for DHS until we can guarantee an end to the madness.
February 3, 2026 at 12:11 AM
IMO, very important that House Ds ensure the Senate-negotiated deal becomes law so that, in two weeks, when Republicans ask for more money for DHS without any strings attached, we've given Ds the strongest leverage to reject that.
It's a simple, straightforward acceptance/rejection of DHS policy.
It's a simple, straightforward acceptance/rejection of DHS policy.