Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!
Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
However, DHS also has access to some funds during a shutdown!
However, DHS also has access to some funds during a shutdown!
tl;dr is ICE/CBP continue w/ pay, FEMA largely continues bcuz it has tons of money still usable, TSA continues w/ pay for a bit
tl;dr is ICE/CBP continue w/ pay, FEMA largely continues bcuz it has tons of money still usable, TSA continues w/ pay for a bit
In general, if the blue line is above the orange, debt/gdp will decline
If the Bush tax cuts had expired on schedule and the Trump tax cuts had never been enacted, blue > orange (dashed)
Instead, spending projections are down! But revenue is down MUCH more (dotted)
In general, if the blue line is above the orange, debt/gdp will decline
If the Bush tax cuts had expired on schedule and the Trump tax cuts had never been enacted, blue > orange (dashed)
Instead, spending projections are down! But revenue is down MUCH more (dotted)
In general, if blue line above orange, debt/gdp shrinks.
Reagan got it out of whack through defense increases & tax cuts. Then bipar efforts to cut spending & raise taxes.
If Bush tax cuts had gone away (& no Trump tax cuts), good forever. But didn't!
In general, if blue line above orange, debt/gdp shrinks.
Reagan got it out of whack through defense increases & tax cuts. Then bipar efforts to cut spending & raise taxes.
If Bush tax cuts had gone away (& no Trump tax cuts), good forever. But didn't!
Is spending to blame, cuz it's going up and revenues aren't? Or are tax cuts to blame cuz that's the thing got us out of balance?
It's the tax cuts.
Is spending to blame, cuz it's going up and revenues aren't? Or are tax cuts to blame cuz that's the thing got us out of balance?
It's the tax cuts.
Imagine the entire government is Medicare, and a tax that exactly matches its spending. Medicare costs grow because health care costs grow and because our population is aging. So both spending and revenues are set to rise, but no debt.
Imagine the entire government is Medicare, and a tax that exactly matches its spending. Medicare costs grow because health care costs grow and because our population is aging. So both spending and revenues are set to rise, but no debt.
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
Going to post observations as I move through it. 🧵
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
We should note that the 2.1% assumes tariff revenues stay forever, which they won't.
We should note that the 2.1% assumes tariff revenues stay forever, which they won't.
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.