Bobby Kogan
@bbkogan.bsky.social
Senior Director of Federal Budget Policy for the Center for American Progress doing budget, tax, and econ.
Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
Pinned
Bobby Kogan
@bbkogan.bsky.social
· Nov 11
Two starter packs from me!
First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!
Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7
First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!
Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
Fun discovery: on an apples-to-apples basis, Trump's tariff taxes are larger than the tax increases in the House-passed version of Build Back Better in 2021.
Of course, the distribution of Biden's tax hikes on corporations and millionaires are different from Trump's tariffs.
Of course, the distribution of Biden's tax hikes on corporations and millionaires are different from Trump's tariffs.
February 13, 2026 at 8:32 PM
Fun discovery: on an apples-to-apples basis, Trump's tariff taxes are larger than the tax increases in the House-passed version of Build Back Better in 2021.
Of course, the distribution of Biden's tax hikes on corporations and millionaires are different from Trump's tariffs.
Of course, the distribution of Biden's tax hikes on corporations and millionaires are different from Trump's tariffs.
From @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on the extremely bad site
February 13, 2026 at 6:48 PM
From @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on the extremely bad site
I do believe there is a secular trend towards lower rates, so that can be the rebuttal. Is our growth so much lower than others? We’re dominating Europe despite much higher debt. Is that short term gain FROM deficits? Maybe, but not much fiscal impulse. I’m just skeptical it’s as strong as folks say
February 13, 2026 at 4:58 PM
I do believe there is a secular trend towards lower rates, so that can be the rebuttal. Is our growth so much lower than others? We’re dominating Europe despite much higher debt. Is that short term gain FROM deficits? Maybe, but not much fiscal impulse. I’m just skeptical it’s as strong as folks say
It’s also not clear to me the lower growth story is even close to as strong as the models show, or even the rate pressure. I guess I’d just say: if you’d told someone in 2003 that debt/gdp would be 3 times larger with similar growth and lower rates, they’d say no way. And yet here we are!
February 13, 2026 at 4:56 PM
It’s also not clear to me the lower growth story is even close to as strong as the models show, or even the rate pressure. I guess I’d just say: if you’d told someone in 2003 that debt/gdp would be 3 times larger with similar growth and lower rates, they’d say no way. And yet here we are!
IMO, impact of badness is overstated. Short of catastrophic collapse, which I don’t think will happen, the problem is the slow sap of weakened growth. But future generations are richer. So it’s making them less richer than they’d have been — in exchange for enormous reduction in current suffering.
February 13, 2026 at 4:42 PM
IMO, impact of badness is overstated. Short of catastrophic collapse, which I don’t think will happen, the problem is the slow sap of weakened growth. But future generations are richer. So it’s making them less richer than they’d have been — in exchange for enormous reduction in current suffering.
Oh, gotcha. Yes, that's a super duper fair pushback.
February 13, 2026 at 4:25 PM
Oh, gotcha. Yes, that's a super duper fair pushback.
expected yields to fall in the near-term*
February 13, 2026 at 4:19 PM
expected yields to fall in the near-term*
IMO conceptual question is whether we think, knowing everything, we'd now guess 10-year securities bought in 2035 are higher than we'd have thought they'd have been 13 months ago. That feels legit to me to assume but ymmv! Obv agree w/ your main point, which is this stuff is impossible to get right.
February 13, 2026 at 4:18 PM
IMO conceptual question is whether we think, knowing everything, we'd now guess 10-year securities bought in 2035 are higher than we'd have thought they'd have been 13 months ago. That feels legit to me to assume but ymmv! Obv agree w/ your main point, which is this stuff is impossible to get right.
Totally! Would just add that CBO assumed the 10-year and 3-month (the only two they publicly show) would fall in its January numbers. But this graph is showing what they expect to then happen to yields over the next 10 years -- ASSUMING NO CHANGES IN LAW (which markets don't assume).
February 13, 2026 at 4:18 PM
Totally! Would just add that CBO assumed the 10-year and 3-month (the only two they publicly show) would fall in its January numbers. But this graph is showing what they expect to then happen to yields over the next 10 years -- ASSUMING NO CHANGES IN LAW (which markets don't assume).
I super super agree, though I don't think expecting an average of 4% nominal rates for the federal government is unrealistic, and I think it's totally fair to assume that, whatever you thought 13 months ago, the modal 10-year outlook is a little higher now than it was then.
February 13, 2026 at 4:03 PM
I super super agree, though I don't think expecting an average of 4% nominal rates for the federal government is unrealistic, and I think it's totally fair to assume that, whatever you thought 13 months ago, the modal 10-year outlook is a little higher now than it was then.
I am a deficit dove. I think concerns are significantly overplayed, and I'm worried too much focus on deficits will lead to cuts to programs people rely on
But people should reexamine their priors around deficits somewhat bcuz both primary deficits & interest rates are MUCH higher than 10 years ago
But people should reexamine their priors around deficits somewhat bcuz both primary deficits & interest rates are MUCH higher than 10 years ago
February 13, 2026 at 4:00 PM
I am a deficit dove. I think concerns are significantly overplayed, and I'm worried too much focus on deficits will lead to cuts to programs people rely on
But people should reexamine their priors around deficits somewhat bcuz both primary deficits & interest rates are MUCH higher than 10 years ago
But people should reexamine their priors around deficits somewhat bcuz both primary deficits & interest rates are MUCH higher than 10 years ago
CBO significantly raised its projections of the interest rate the government pays on its debt. This is a key driver of debt/gdp sustainability.
It also means higher interest rates on credit card debt, auto loans, mortgages, etc. And it means higher prices, since business investments cost more.
It also means higher interest rates on credit card debt, auto loans, mortgages, etc. And it means higher prices, since business investments cost more.
February 13, 2026 at 3:51 PM
CBO significantly raised its projections of the interest rate the government pays on its debt. This is a key driver of debt/gdp sustainability.
It also means higher interest rates on credit card debt, auto loans, mortgages, etc. And it means higher prices, since business investments cost more.
It also means higher interest rates on credit card debt, auto loans, mortgages, etc. And it means higher prices, since business investments cost more.
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
CBP didn’t give her or anyone any water; she asked 3 times accg to other reports. CBP killed a 7yr old.
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
7-Year-Old Migrant Girl Dies Of Dehydration And Shock In U.S. Border Patrol Custody
The girl's death underscores the crisis precipitated by large groups of families seeking asylum where there are inadequate facilities to detain them.
shorturl.at
February 13, 2026 at 1:33 AM
CBP didn’t give her or anyone any water; she asked 3 times accg to other reports. CBP killed a 7yr old.
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
FEMA’s disaster relief fund has what’s called “no-year” money, which means it’s available until used up. It has billions left over, so it’s still usable during a shutdown. (Many other funds have a limited period of availability, and even if it isn’t all used up, it’s no longer available for usage.)
February 13, 2026 at 2:55 PM
FEMA’s disaster relief fund has what’s called “no-year” money, which means it’s available until used up. It has billions left over, so it’s still usable during a shutdown. (Many other funds have a limited period of availability, and even if it isn’t all used up, it’s no longer available for usage.)
DHS was given $191 billion in Trump’s big beautiful bill. $141 billion of that is for ICE & CBP. That money is available for use during a shutdown because it lives outside the annual approps bills. Because of this, they get to work with pay. But even without it, they’d still work, just without pay.
February 13, 2026 at 2:53 PM
DHS was given $191 billion in Trump’s big beautiful bill. $141 billion of that is for ICE & CBP. That money is available for use during a shutdown because it lives outside the annual approps bills. Because of this, they get to work with pay. But even without it, they’d still work, just without pay.
First, activities Trump decides are “necessary to protect against imminent threats to life or property” continue, even w/out pay. That is one of the kinds of “excepted” work. Even w/out any funding, much of DHS is in that category.
However, DHS also has access to some funds during a shutdown!
However, DHS also has access to some funds during a shutdown!
February 13, 2026 at 2:53 PM
First, activities Trump decides are “necessary to protect against imminent threats to life or property” continue, even w/out pay. That is one of the kinds of “excepted” work. Even w/out any funding, much of DHS is in that category.
However, DHS also has access to some funds during a shutdown!
However, DHS also has access to some funds during a shutdown!
At midnight as Saturday begins, annual funding provided in the DHS bill will lapse, leading to a “DHS-only” shutdown. What that means in reality is complicated. Short 🧵
tl;dr is ICE/CBP continue w/ pay, FEMA largely continues bcuz it has tons of money still usable, TSA continues w/ pay for a bit
tl;dr is ICE/CBP continue w/ pay, FEMA largely continues bcuz it has tons of money still usable, TSA continues w/ pay for a bit
February 13, 2026 at 2:53 PM
At midnight as Saturday begins, annual funding provided in the DHS bill will lapse, leading to a “DHS-only” shutdown. What that means in reality is complicated. Short 🧵
tl;dr is ICE/CBP continue w/ pay, FEMA largely continues bcuz it has tons of money still usable, TSA continues w/ pay for a bit
tl;dr is ICE/CBP continue w/ pay, FEMA largely continues bcuz it has tons of money still usable, TSA continues w/ pay for a bit
Another way of looking at it:
In general, if the blue line is above the orange, debt/gdp will decline
If the Bush tax cuts had expired on schedule and the Trump tax cuts had never been enacted, blue > orange (dashed)
Instead, spending projections are down! But revenue is down MUCH more (dotted)
In general, if the blue line is above the orange, debt/gdp will decline
If the Bush tax cuts had expired on schedule and the Trump tax cuts had never been enacted, blue > orange (dashed)
Instead, spending projections are down! But revenue is down MUCH more (dotted)
February 12, 2026 at 8:47 PM
Another way of looking at it:
In general, if the blue line is above the orange, debt/gdp will decline
If the Bush tax cuts had expired on schedule and the Trump tax cuts had never been enacted, blue > orange (dashed)
Instead, spending projections are down! But revenue is down MUCH more (dotted)
In general, if the blue line is above the orange, debt/gdp will decline
If the Bush tax cuts had expired on schedule and the Trump tax cuts had never been enacted, blue > orange (dashed)
Instead, spending projections are down! But revenue is down MUCH more (dotted)
Messy graph. Open to ideas to make it better!
In general, if blue line above orange, debt/gdp shrinks.
Reagan got it out of whack through defense increases & tax cuts. Then bipar efforts to cut spending & raise taxes.
If Bush tax cuts had gone away (& no Trump tax cuts), good forever. But didn't!
In general, if blue line above orange, debt/gdp shrinks.
Reagan got it out of whack through defense increases & tax cuts. Then bipar efforts to cut spending & raise taxes.
If Bush tax cuts had gone away (& no Trump tax cuts), good forever. But didn't!
February 12, 2026 at 5:01 PM
Messy graph. Open to ideas to make it better!
In general, if blue line above orange, debt/gdp shrinks.
Reagan got it out of whack through defense increases & tax cuts. Then bipar efforts to cut spending & raise taxes.
If Bush tax cuts had gone away (& no Trump tax cuts), good forever. But didn't!
In general, if blue line above orange, debt/gdp shrinks.
Reagan got it out of whack through defense increases & tax cuts. Then bipar efforts to cut spending & raise taxes.
If Bush tax cuts had gone away (& no Trump tax cuts), good forever. But didn't!
I will make one later today when I get an hour or two!
February 11, 2026 at 5:34 PM
I will make one later today when I get an hour or two!
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
(2/2) If we then cut taxes so they stay flat as a % of GDP instead of growing, then we're in a scenario where revenues are flat, & spending is rising
Is spending to blame, cuz it's going up and revenues aren't? Or are tax cuts to blame cuz that's the thing got us out of balance?
It's the tax cuts.
Is spending to blame, cuz it's going up and revenues aren't? Or are tax cuts to blame cuz that's the thing got us out of balance?
It's the tax cuts.
February 11, 2026 at 4:37 PM
(2/2) If we then cut taxes so they stay flat as a % of GDP instead of growing, then we're in a scenario where revenues are flat, & spending is rising
Is spending to blame, cuz it's going up and revenues aren't? Or are tax cuts to blame cuz that's the thing got us out of balance?
It's the tax cuts.
Is spending to blame, cuz it's going up and revenues aren't? Or are tax cuts to blame cuz that's the thing got us out of balance?
It's the tax cuts.
A simple thought experiment (1/2):
Imagine the entire government is Medicare, and a tax that exactly matches its spending. Medicare costs grow because health care costs grow and because our population is aging. So both spending and revenues are set to rise, but no debt.
Imagine the entire government is Medicare, and a tax that exactly matches its spending. Medicare costs grow because health care costs grow and because our population is aging. So both spending and revenues are set to rise, but no debt.
February 11, 2026 at 4:37 PM
A simple thought experiment (1/2):
Imagine the entire government is Medicare, and a tax that exactly matches its spending. Medicare costs grow because health care costs grow and because our population is aging. So both spending and revenues are set to rise, but no debt.
Imagine the entire government is Medicare, and a tax that exactly matches its spending. Medicare costs grow because health care costs grow and because our population is aging. So both spending and revenues are set to rise, but no debt.
The most important thing to understand about the debt:
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
February 11, 2026 at 4:29 PM
The most important thing to understand about the debt:
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame