Bobby Kogan
@bbkogan.bsky.social
Senior Director of Federal Budget Policy for the Center for American Progress doing budget, tax, and econ.
Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
Pinned
Bobby Kogan
@bbkogan.bsky.social
· Nov 11
Two starter packs from me!
First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!
Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7
First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!
Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7
Maybe they’ll just do yet another one-time filibuster carveout and pretend they didn’t
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., tells me Senate Republicans are having a "big meeting tomorrow" to discuss the path forward for SAVE Act. He predicts the Senate won't nuke the filibuster but adds that he's "willing to listen" to ideas on how to proceed.
February 10, 2026 at 1:43 PM
Maybe they’ll just do yet another one-time filibuster carveout and pretend they didn’t
Whales are ungulates, so part of the hoofed mammal line. And specifically they’re part of the even-toed line, like deer and pigs.
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
February 10, 2026 at 3:14 AM
Whales are ungulates, so part of the hoofed mammal line. And specifically they’re part of the even-toed line, like deer and pigs.
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
AOC on DHS Warehouses: I think every American should be alarmed. They are building—and have built—a black box system that disappears people, both immigrants and U.S. citizens alike.
February 10, 2026 at 1:30 AM
AOC on DHS Warehouses: I think every American should be alarmed. They are building—and have built—a black box system that disappears people, both immigrants and U.S. citizens alike.
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
1/ ProPublica collected handwritten letters in mid-January from children held at the Dilley Immigration Processing Center, the same facility where 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos was taken.
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
February 9, 2026 at 12:25 PM
1/ ProPublica collected handwritten letters in mid-January from children held at the Dilley Immigration Processing Center, the same facility where 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos was taken.
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
ICE told nurses this Minneapolis man “purposefully ran headfirst into a brick wall.”
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
February 7, 2026 at 5:54 PM
ICE told nurses this Minneapolis man “purposefully ran headfirst into a brick wall.”
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
the fact that early-stage automated vehicles that still occasionally require remote operation assistance are like several orders of magnitude safer than the average American driver should be the real wakeup call here, not the idea that these vehicles still sometimes need remote operation assistance
February 6, 2026 at 5:34 PM
the fact that early-stage automated vehicles that still occasionally require remote operation assistance are like several orders of magnitude safer than the average American driver should be the real wakeup call here, not the idea that these vehicles still sometimes need remote operation assistance
And now for the most important point. I'm just going to screencap the article. Protect vulnerable people.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
And now for the most important point. I'm just going to screencap the article. Protect vulnerable people.
When employment was high, we used to bring in tons of revenue. That just isn't the case anymore, because of enormous tax cuts that disproportionately went to the richest Americans.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
When employment was high, we used to bring in tons of revenue. That just isn't the case anymore, because of enormous tax cuts that disproportionately went to the richest Americans.
When I say revenue is down, I mean it. In the Clinton era, we hit revenue/GDP if 20%. Today, it's 17% of GDP, even with tariffs. That's means $940 billion in lower revenue PER YEAR.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
When I say revenue is down, I mean it. In the Clinton era, we hit revenue/GDP if 20%. Today, it's 17% of GDP, even with tariffs. That's means $940 billion in lower revenue PER YEAR.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
Yes, it's true that primary spending is higher than it used to be. But old projections always had spending going up. But they also had revenue also keeping pace with spending, so no problem.
Then we cut taxes, and now taxes aren't keeping up. And spending is below those old projections.
Then we cut taxes, and now taxes aren't keeping up. And spending is below those old projections.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Yes, it's true that primary spending is higher than it used to be. But old projections always had spending going up. But they also had revenue also keeping pace with spending, so no problem.
Then we cut taxes, and now taxes aren't keeping up. And spending is below those old projections.
Then we cut taxes, and now taxes aren't keeping up. And spending is below those old projections.
The Bush tax cuts and the Trump tax cuts are entirely to blame for our fiscal gap.
Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.
Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
The Bush tax cuts and the Trump tax cuts are entirely to blame for our fiscal gap.
Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.
Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.
Of course, it's crucial to understand how we got here. Tax cuts, not spending increases. And tax cuts that disproportionately went to the rich.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Of course, it's crucial to understand how we got here. Tax cuts, not spending increases. And tax cuts that disproportionately went to the rich.
These two things matter. It's much more expensive to finance our debt than it used to be, and structural deficits are much higher than they used to be.
This has caused a historically large fiscal gap. That's something new, and it's worth actually acknowledging.
This has caused a historically large fiscal gap. That's something new, and it's worth actually acknowledging.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
These two things matter. It's much more expensive to finance our debt than it used to be, and structural deficits are much higher than they used to be.
This has caused a historically large fiscal gap. That's something new, and it's worth actually acknowledging.
This has caused a historically large fiscal gap. That's something new, and it's worth actually acknowledging.
Next, interest rates. We've benefitted from G significantly bigger than R for YEARS, after the Great Recession. G>R makes debt sustainability easier. You can run primary deficits that aren't too big when G>R.
R has at long last somewhat rebounded from post-Great Recession lows. Big change.
R has at long last somewhat rebounded from post-Great Recession lows. Big change.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Next, interest rates. We've benefitted from G significantly bigger than R for YEARS, after the Great Recession. G>R makes debt sustainability easier. You can run primary deficits that aren't too big when G>R.
R has at long last somewhat rebounded from post-Great Recession lows. Big change.
R has at long last somewhat rebounded from post-Great Recession lows. Big change.
First, let's look at primary deficits. We focus on primary deficits because, if G = R, then a primary balance is all you need to stabilize debt/GDP.
Our near-term primary deficits are the highest since the Reagan tax cuts, before his deficit reduction policies, with no end in sight. Big change.
Our near-term primary deficits are the highest since the Reagan tax cuts, before his deficit reduction policies, with no end in sight. Big change.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
First, let's look at primary deficits. We focus on primary deficits because, if G = R, then a primary balance is all you need to stabilize debt/GDP.
Our near-term primary deficits are the highest since the Reagan tax cuts, before his deficit reduction policies, with no end in sight. Big change.
Our near-term primary deficits are the highest since the Reagan tax cuts, before his deficit reduction policies, with no end in sight. Big change.
Regardless of what happens with tariffs, we're in a not great fiscal situation.
Many of us developed priors about debt worries in an era of very low interest rates and lower primary deficits. Neither of those is the case anymore, and so we should reexamine our priors, as the situation has changed.
Many of us developed priors about debt worries in an era of very low interest rates and lower primary deficits. Neither of those is the case anymore, and so we should reexamine our priors, as the situation has changed.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Regardless of what happens with tariffs, we're in a not great fiscal situation.
Many of us developed priors about debt worries in an era of very low interest rates and lower primary deficits. Neither of those is the case anymore, and so we should reexamine our priors, as the situation has changed.
Many of us developed priors about debt worries in an era of very low interest rates and lower primary deficits. Neither of those is the case anymore, and so we should reexamine our priors, as the situation has changed.
Tariffs partially offset those new costs, but only if they actually stay in place and are not used to pay for other things. Note that Trump has claimed they will pay for many many many different things.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Tariffs partially offset those new costs, but only if they actually stay in place and are not used to pay for other things. Note that Trump has claimed they will pay for many many many different things.
First, what happened? I'm looking at the fiscal gap, which measures the average primary (non-interest) deficit reduction needed to keep debt/GDP stable.
The Big Beautiful Bill made that 45% worse. And if OB3's temporary provisions are made permanent, it made our fiscal situation 76% worse.
The Big Beautiful Bill made that 45% worse. And if OB3's temporary provisions are made permanent, it made our fiscal situation 76% worse.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
First, what happened? I'm looking at the fiscal gap, which measures the average primary (non-interest) deficit reduction needed to keep debt/GDP stable.
The Big Beautiful Bill made that 45% worse. And if OB3's temporary provisions are made permanent, it made our fiscal situation 76% worse.
The Big Beautiful Bill made that 45% worse. And if OB3's temporary provisions are made permanent, it made our fiscal situation 76% worse.
New piece from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and me showing how the fiscal situation has deteriorated under Trump.
Jared and I are two notable fiscal doves. We explain why doves should reexamine some of our priors.
Crucially, we *must not* cut crucial services when looking at course correction.
Thread
Jared and I are two notable fiscal doves. We explain why doves should reexamine some of our priors.
Crucially, we *must not* cut crucial services when looking at course correction.
Thread
President Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Raises the Fiscal Gap to 2.4 Percent
A combination of higher deficits, higher interest rates, and lower growth has left the United States with a significantly worse fiscal outlook.
www.americanprogress.org
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
New piece from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and me showing how the fiscal situation has deteriorated under Trump.
Jared and I are two notable fiscal doves. We explain why doves should reexamine some of our priors.
Crucially, we *must not* cut crucial services when looking at course correction.
Thread
Jared and I are two notable fiscal doves. We explain why doves should reexamine some of our priors.
Crucially, we *must not* cut crucial services when looking at course correction.
Thread
We should also be clear that Republicans made defunding IRS anti-cheating enforcement literally their number one legislative priority when they retook the House in 2023. Since then they've gotten rid of nearly all the enforcement money from the IRA.
Their goal is making it easier to cheat on taxes.
Their goal is making it easier to cheat on taxes.
It is not surprising that the people who are ideologically committed to the idea that government can't do anything right actually suck at running the government.
February 4, 2026 at 10:21 PM
We should also be clear that Republicans made defunding IRS anti-cheating enforcement literally their number one legislative priority when they retook the House in 2023. Since then they've gotten rid of nearly all the enforcement money from the IRA.
Their goal is making it easier to cheat on taxes.
Their goal is making it easier to cheat on taxes.
It is not surprising that the people who are ideologically committed to the idea that government can't do anything right actually suck at running the government.
February 4, 2026 at 10:19 PM
It is not surprising that the people who are ideologically committed to the idea that government can't do anything right actually suck at running the government.
This was enacted, plus huge increases for homeless assistance grants. Good stuff!
February 4, 2026 at 6:46 PM
This was enacted, plus huge increases for homeless assistance grants. Good stuff!
Rip to the newspaper that ensured the Pentagon Papers were published after Nixon got an injunction against the Times. 🫡
Had a good run, but as with so many cases, a billionaire bought something he didn’t care about and broke it. A tale as old as time.
Had a good run, but as with so many cases, a billionaire bought something he didn’t care about and broke it. A tale as old as time.
February 4, 2026 at 5:03 PM
Rip to the newspaper that ensured the Pentagon Papers were published after Nixon got an injunction against the Times. 🫡
Had a good run, but as with so many cases, a billionaire bought something he didn’t care about and broke it. A tale as old as time.
Had a good run, but as with so many cases, a billionaire bought something he didn’t care about and broke it. A tale as old as time.
House passes bill to end shutdown. Now, all of the govt EXCEPT DHS has funding through end of fiscal year
DHS funding runs through Feb 13. At that point, we're looking at DHS-only shutdown
Importantly, ICE & CBP continue to operate w/ pay. Not much leverage, but this is least bad leverage option
DHS funding runs through Feb 13. At that point, we're looking at DHS-only shutdown
Importantly, ICE & CBP continue to operate w/ pay. Not much leverage, but this is least bad leverage option
House passes bill to end the shutdown and punt on DHS funding, sending it to Trump
Trump has said he'll sign the bill to end the brief shutdown. It funds almost all of government while putting DHS on a stopgap after federal agents killed two people in Minneapolis.
www.nbcnews.com
February 3, 2026 at 7:33 PM
House passes bill to end shutdown. Now, all of the govt EXCEPT DHS has funding through end of fiscal year
DHS funding runs through Feb 13. At that point, we're looking at DHS-only shutdown
Importantly, ICE & CBP continue to operate w/ pay. Not much leverage, but this is least bad leverage option
DHS funding runs through Feb 13. At that point, we're looking at DHS-only shutdown
Importantly, ICE & CBP continue to operate w/ pay. Not much leverage, but this is least bad leverage option
the "party of small government" is really out here being like "can you even imagine how inconvenient it would be if we had to adhere to the constitution"
imagine!!!!!
imagine!!!!!
Mike Johnson speaks out against the use of judicial warrants in immigration cases:
"Imagine if we had to go through the process of getting a judicial warrant"
"Imagine if we had to go through the process of getting a judicial warrant"
February 3, 2026 at 6:14 PM
the "party of small government" is really out here being like "can you even imagine how inconvenient it would be if we had to adhere to the constitution"
imagine!!!!!
imagine!!!!!