Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!
Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
Then we cut taxes, and now taxes aren't keeping up. And spending is below those old projections.
Then we cut taxes, and now taxes aren't keeping up. And spending is below those old projections.
Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.
Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.
This has caused a historically large fiscal gap. That's something new, and it's worth actually acknowledging.
This has caused a historically large fiscal gap. That's something new, and it's worth actually acknowledging.
R has at long last somewhat rebounded from post-Great Recession lows. Big change.
R has at long last somewhat rebounded from post-Great Recession lows. Big change.
Our near-term primary deficits are the highest since the Reagan tax cuts, before his deficit reduction policies, with no end in sight. Big change.
Our near-term primary deficits are the highest since the Reagan tax cuts, before his deficit reduction policies, with no end in sight. Big change.
Many of us developed priors about debt worries in an era of very low interest rates and lower primary deficits. Neither of those is the case anymore, and so we should reexamine our priors, as the situation has changed.
Many of us developed priors about debt worries in an era of very low interest rates and lower primary deficits. Neither of those is the case anymore, and so we should reexamine our priors, as the situation has changed.
The Big Beautiful Bill made that 45% worse. And if OB3's temporary provisions are made permanent, it made our fiscal situation 76% worse.
The Big Beautiful Bill made that 45% worse. And if OB3's temporary provisions are made permanent, it made our fiscal situation 76% worse.
Jared and I are two notable fiscal doves. We explain why doves should reexamine some of our priors.
Crucially, we *must not* cut crucial services when looking at course correction.
Thread
Jared and I are two notable fiscal doves. We explain why doves should reexamine some of our priors.
Crucially, we *must not* cut crucial services when looking at course correction.
Thread
Their goal is making it easier to cheat on taxes.
Their goal is making it easier to cheat on taxes.
Had a good run, but as with so many cases, a billionaire bought something he didn’t care about and broke it. A tale as old as time.
Had a good run, but as with so many cases, a billionaire bought something he didn’t care about and broke it. A tale as old as time.
DHS funding runs through Feb 13. At that point, we're looking at DHS-only shutdown
Importantly, ICE & CBP continue to operate w/ pay. Not much leverage, but this is least bad leverage option
DHS funding runs through Feb 13. At that point, we're looking at DHS-only shutdown
Importantly, ICE & CBP continue to operate w/ pay. Not much leverage, but this is least bad leverage option
imagine!!!!!
"Imagine if we had to go through the process of getting a judicial warrant"
imagine!!!!!