Bobby Kogan
@bbkogan.bsky.social
Senior Director of Federal Budget Policy for the Center for American Progress doing budget, tax, and econ.
Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
Formerly: Biden OMB, Biden Transition Team, Senate Budget Committee (Murray and Sanders).
CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal account.
Pinned
Bobby Kogan
@bbkogan.bsky.social
· Nov 11
Two starter packs from me!
First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!
Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7
First, for the very few of you who care about it, a budget and tax starter pack!
Please let me know if you should be on this and I missed you!
go.bsky.app/N6Nukd7
Messy graph. Open to ideas to make it better!
In general, if blue line above orange, debt/gdp shrinks.
Reagan got it out of whack through defense increases & tax cuts. Then bipar efforts to cut spending & raise taxes.
If Bush tax cuts had gone away (& no Trump tax cuts), good forever. But didn't!
In general, if blue line above orange, debt/gdp shrinks.
Reagan got it out of whack through defense increases & tax cuts. Then bipar efforts to cut spending & raise taxes.
If Bush tax cuts had gone away (& no Trump tax cuts), good forever. But didn't!
February 12, 2026 at 5:01 PM
Messy graph. Open to ideas to make it better!
In general, if blue line above orange, debt/gdp shrinks.
Reagan got it out of whack through defense increases & tax cuts. Then bipar efforts to cut spending & raise taxes.
If Bush tax cuts had gone away (& no Trump tax cuts), good forever. But didn't!
In general, if blue line above orange, debt/gdp shrinks.
Reagan got it out of whack through defense increases & tax cuts. Then bipar efforts to cut spending & raise taxes.
If Bush tax cuts had gone away (& no Trump tax cuts), good forever. But didn't!
I will make one later today when I get an hour or two!
February 11, 2026 at 5:34 PM
I will make one later today when I get an hour or two!
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
(2/2) If we then cut taxes so they stay flat as a % of GDP instead of growing, then we're in a scenario where revenues are flat, & spending is rising
Is spending to blame, cuz it's going up and revenues aren't? Or are tax cuts to blame cuz that's the thing got us out of balance?
It's the tax cuts.
Is spending to blame, cuz it's going up and revenues aren't? Or are tax cuts to blame cuz that's the thing got us out of balance?
It's the tax cuts.
February 11, 2026 at 4:37 PM
(2/2) If we then cut taxes so they stay flat as a % of GDP instead of growing, then we're in a scenario where revenues are flat, & spending is rising
Is spending to blame, cuz it's going up and revenues aren't? Or are tax cuts to blame cuz that's the thing got us out of balance?
It's the tax cuts.
Is spending to blame, cuz it's going up and revenues aren't? Or are tax cuts to blame cuz that's the thing got us out of balance?
It's the tax cuts.
A simple thought experiment (1/2):
Imagine the entire government is Medicare, and a tax that exactly matches its spending. Medicare costs grow because health care costs grow and because our population is aging. So both spending and revenues are set to rise, but no debt.
Imagine the entire government is Medicare, and a tax that exactly matches its spending. Medicare costs grow because health care costs grow and because our population is aging. So both spending and revenues are set to rise, but no debt.
February 11, 2026 at 4:37 PM
A simple thought experiment (1/2):
Imagine the entire government is Medicare, and a tax that exactly matches its spending. Medicare costs grow because health care costs grow and because our population is aging. So both spending and revenues are set to rise, but no debt.
Imagine the entire government is Medicare, and a tax that exactly matches its spending. Medicare costs grow because health care costs grow and because our population is aging. So both spending and revenues are set to rise, but no debt.
The most important thing to understand about the debt:
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
February 11, 2026 at 4:29 PM
The most important thing to understand about the debt:
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
Yes, spending is rising – due to demographics & health care cost growth
But taxes used to be on pace to match that rising spending
Then we cut taxes and now it isn't
Spending is rising slower than expected, so tax cuts bear 100% of the blame
Great thread from Brendan
NEW: the U.S. Congressional Budget Office has posted its budget and economic outlook--the first full one we've had in a year so the first one reflecting One Big Beautiful Bill and the Trump tariffs.
Going to post observations as I move through it. 🧵
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
Going to post observations as I move through it. 🧵
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
www.cbo.gov
February 11, 2026 at 4:02 PM
Great thread from Brendan
Ah yeah, this is the good stuff! Here's my version, going back to 1792, that instead excludes years w/ major wars and the Great Depression, the Great Recession (+recovery), and the COVID-19 recession (+recovery).
We should note that the 2.1% assumes tariff revenues stay forever, which they won't.
We should note that the 2.1% assumes tariff revenues stay forever, which they won't.
February 11, 2026 at 3:24 PM
Ah yeah, this is the good stuff! Here's my version, going back to 1792, that instead excludes years w/ major wars and the Great Depression, the Great Recession (+recovery), and the COVID-19 recession (+recovery).
We should note that the 2.1% assumes tariff revenues stay forever, which they won't.
We should note that the 2.1% assumes tariff revenues stay forever, which they won't.
CBO is out with its newest budget and economic outlook. One key thing that stands out is they say that US consumers will bear 95% of tariffs, with US businesses bearing 0% on net and foreign businesses bearing 5%.
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
February 11, 2026 at 3:03 PM
CBO is out with its newest budget and economic outlook. One key thing that stands out is they say that US consumers will bear 95% of tariffs, with US businesses bearing 0% on net and foreign businesses bearing 5%.
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
Maybe they’ll just do yet another one-time filibuster carveout and pretend they didn’t
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., tells me Senate Republicans are having a "big meeting tomorrow" to discuss the path forward for SAVE Act. He predicts the Senate won't nuke the filibuster but adds that he's "willing to listen" to ideas on how to proceed.
February 10, 2026 at 1:43 PM
Maybe they’ll just do yet another one-time filibuster carveout and pretend they didn’t
Whales are ungulates, so part of the hoofed mammal line. And specifically they’re part of the even-toed line, like deer and pigs.
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
February 10, 2026 at 3:14 AM
Whales are ungulates, so part of the hoofed mammal line. And specifically they’re part of the even-toed line, like deer and pigs.
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
The way my dad described it to me was “about 50 million years ago, some semi-aquatic deer decided they wanted to become fully aquatic.”
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
AOC on DHS Warehouses: I think every American should be alarmed. They are building—and have built—a black box system that disappears people, both immigrants and U.S. citizens alike.
February 10, 2026 at 1:30 AM
AOC on DHS Warehouses: I think every American should be alarmed. They are building—and have built—a black box system that disappears people, both immigrants and U.S. citizens alike.
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
1/ ProPublica collected handwritten letters in mid-January from children held at the Dilley Immigration Processing Center, the same facility where 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos was taken.
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
February 9, 2026 at 12:25 PM
1/ ProPublica collected handwritten letters in mid-January from children held at the Dilley Immigration Processing Center, the same facility where 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos was taken.
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Hundreds of kids are still detained.
We’ll let the children’s words speak for themselves. 🧵
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
ICE told nurses this Minneapolis man “purposefully ran headfirst into a brick wall.”
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
February 7, 2026 at 5:54 PM
ICE told nurses this Minneapolis man “purposefully ran headfirst into a brick wall.”
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
What actually happened is that they pulled him from a car, beat him so viciously with a steel baton that he had 8 skull fractures, 5 life-threatening brain hemorrhages, and couldn’t remember he had a daughter.
Reposted by Bobby Kogan
the fact that early-stage automated vehicles that still occasionally require remote operation assistance are like several orders of magnitude safer than the average American driver should be the real wakeup call here, not the idea that these vehicles still sometimes need remote operation assistance
February 6, 2026 at 5:34 PM
the fact that early-stage automated vehicles that still occasionally require remote operation assistance are like several orders of magnitude safer than the average American driver should be the real wakeup call here, not the idea that these vehicles still sometimes need remote operation assistance
And now for the most important point. I'm just going to screencap the article. Protect vulnerable people.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
And now for the most important point. I'm just going to screencap the article. Protect vulnerable people.
When employment was high, we used to bring in tons of revenue. That just isn't the case anymore, because of enormous tax cuts that disproportionately went to the richest Americans.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
When employment was high, we used to bring in tons of revenue. That just isn't the case anymore, because of enormous tax cuts that disproportionately went to the richest Americans.
When I say revenue is down, I mean it. In the Clinton era, we hit revenue/GDP if 20%. Today, it's 17% of GDP, even with tariffs. That's means $940 billion in lower revenue PER YEAR.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
When I say revenue is down, I mean it. In the Clinton era, we hit revenue/GDP if 20%. Today, it's 17% of GDP, even with tariffs. That's means $940 billion in lower revenue PER YEAR.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
If we were at 20% of GDP today & revenue grew from there only w/ bracket creep, debt/GDP would be declining forever.
Yes, it's true that primary spending is higher than it used to be. But old projections always had spending going up. But they also had revenue also keeping pace with spending, so no problem.
Then we cut taxes, and now taxes aren't keeping up. And spending is below those old projections.
Then we cut taxes, and now taxes aren't keeping up. And spending is below those old projections.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Yes, it's true that primary spending is higher than it used to be. But old projections always had spending going up. But they also had revenue also keeping pace with spending, so no problem.
Then we cut taxes, and now taxes aren't keeping up. And spending is below those old projections.
Then we cut taxes, and now taxes aren't keeping up. And spending is below those old projections.
The Bush tax cuts and the Trump tax cuts are entirely to blame for our fiscal gap.
Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.
Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
The Bush tax cuts and the Trump tax cuts are entirely to blame for our fiscal gap.
Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.
Entirely? Spending projections are down relative to old projections where we didn't have a fiscal gap, not up. That is, relative to projections where there was no problem, spending is down. So it's all revenue loss.
Of course, it's crucial to understand how we got here. Tax cuts, not spending increases. And tax cuts that disproportionately went to the rich.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Of course, it's crucial to understand how we got here. Tax cuts, not spending increases. And tax cuts that disproportionately went to the rich.
These two things matter. It's much more expensive to finance our debt than it used to be, and structural deficits are much higher than they used to be.
This has caused a historically large fiscal gap. That's something new, and it's worth actually acknowledging.
This has caused a historically large fiscal gap. That's something new, and it's worth actually acknowledging.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
These two things matter. It's much more expensive to finance our debt than it used to be, and structural deficits are much higher than they used to be.
This has caused a historically large fiscal gap. That's something new, and it's worth actually acknowledging.
This has caused a historically large fiscal gap. That's something new, and it's worth actually acknowledging.
Next, interest rates. We've benefitted from G significantly bigger than R for YEARS, after the Great Recession. G>R makes debt sustainability easier. You can run primary deficits that aren't too big when G>R.
R has at long last somewhat rebounded from post-Great Recession lows. Big change.
R has at long last somewhat rebounded from post-Great Recession lows. Big change.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Next, interest rates. We've benefitted from G significantly bigger than R for YEARS, after the Great Recession. G>R makes debt sustainability easier. You can run primary deficits that aren't too big when G>R.
R has at long last somewhat rebounded from post-Great Recession lows. Big change.
R has at long last somewhat rebounded from post-Great Recession lows. Big change.
First, let's look at primary deficits. We focus on primary deficits because, if G = R, then a primary balance is all you need to stabilize debt/GDP.
Our near-term primary deficits are the highest since the Reagan tax cuts, before his deficit reduction policies, with no end in sight. Big change.
Our near-term primary deficits are the highest since the Reagan tax cuts, before his deficit reduction policies, with no end in sight. Big change.
February 5, 2026 at 5:10 PM
First, let's look at primary deficits. We focus on primary deficits because, if G = R, then a primary balance is all you need to stabilize debt/GDP.
Our near-term primary deficits are the highest since the Reagan tax cuts, before his deficit reduction policies, with no end in sight. Big change.
Our near-term primary deficits are the highest since the Reagan tax cuts, before his deficit reduction policies, with no end in sight. Big change.