Francisco Peiró 🇪🇺
@peiro.me
🤝🛡️Trade & Competition Expert @EU_Commission | now FTA & Level Playing Field Specialist
⚖️🎯 Leading EU negotiations on SOEs & competitive neutrality | 🥾Ultreia! 🇪🇸🇬🇧🇨🇷
⚖️🎯 Leading EU negotiations on SOEs & competitive neutrality | 🥾Ultreia! 🇪🇸🇬🇧🇨🇷
open.substack.com/pub/oneusefu...
E. MOLLICK is always great but if you want to get up to date with what AI system is best for you, you could do worse than read his most recent update
E. MOLLICK is always great but if you want to get up to date with what AI system is best for you, you could do worse than read his most recent update
An Opinionated Guide to Using AI Right Now
What AI to use in late 2025
open.substack.com
October 19, 2025 at 7:11 PM
open.substack.com/pub/oneusefu...
E. MOLLICK is always great but if you want to get up to date with what AI system is best for you, you could do worse than read his most recent update
E. MOLLICK is always great but if you want to get up to date with what AI system is best for you, you could do worse than read his most recent update
Ok, this is even weirder than all The Simpsons episodes forecasting the future - 1980 and wind/solar is already on the Presidential debate 👊 but the best is on the Sony Walkman (replace with all those noise cancelling EarPods and there you are - 1980=2025 😵💫😂)
plus ça change…
plus ça change…
October 17, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Ok, this is even weirder than all The Simpsons episodes forecasting the future - 1980 and wind/solar is already on the Presidential debate 👊 but the best is on the Sony Walkman (replace with all those noise cancelling EarPods and there you are - 1980=2025 😵💫😂)
plus ça change…
plus ça change…
For my Italian friends, there surely can’t be any truth in this 😥😓
Gambetta & Origgi on the LL Game, in which agents prefer to deliver and receive (!) low quality.
This paper is absolutely savage but also feels uncomfortably relevant to parts of academia outside of Italy 👀
diegogambetta.org/wp-content/u...
This paper is absolutely savage but also feels uncomfortably relevant to parts of academia outside of Italy 👀
diegogambetta.org/wp-content/u...
October 16, 2025 at 9:59 PM
For my Italian friends, there surely can’t be any truth in this 😥😓
Reposted by Francisco Peiró 🇪🇺
The issue in France and Italy in one graph.
October 11, 2025 at 6:29 PM
The issue in France and Italy in one graph.
Reposted by Francisco Peiró 🇪🇺
Australia's grid operator has a clear line of sight to 100% renewables. There's nothing unknown or exotic required.
It'll be fun when the first large/major economies start hitting the goal. Too bad the US is likely to be at the rear of the pack.
It'll be fun when the first large/major economies start hitting the goal. Too bad the US is likely to be at the rear of the pack.
As coal fades, Australia looks to realize dream of 100% renewable…
The country’s grid operator says shifting from coal to clean power is not only possible but inevitable. The work there could provide a road map for other…
www.canarymedia.com
October 6, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Australia's grid operator has a clear line of sight to 100% renewables. There's nothing unknown or exotic required.
It'll be fun when the first large/major economies start hitting the goal. Too bad the US is likely to be at the rear of the pack.
It'll be fun when the first large/major economies start hitting the goal. Too bad the US is likely to be at the rear of the pack.
Well, we like to extrapolate the future from current trends… you kind of get the idea of where this is going. Like climate change, but faster…
The top 1% of Americans (1.3 million households in total) have a net worth of $52 Trillion.
The bottom 50% (66 million households) have a net worth of $4 Trillion. #EconSky
The bottom 50% (66 million households) have a net worth of $4 Trillion. #EconSky
September 21, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Well, we like to extrapolate the future from current trends… you kind of get the idea of where this is going. Like climate change, but faster…
Just a reminder that the ”critical raw minerals“ debate is not a XXI century / China problem only… open.substack.com/pub/chrismil...
The "Critical Minerals" Crisis of 100 Years Ago
I review a fascinating dissertation on interwar metals trading and the "Age of Alloy Steel"
open.substack.com
September 15, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Just a reminder that the ”critical raw minerals“ debate is not a XXI century / China problem only… open.substack.com/pub/chrismil...
Particularly good interview (excuse the blowing of our own EU trumpet)… especially on the tetradent approach of: 1. open to negotiation, 2. maintain vigilance, 3. develop new partnerships, 4. focus on internal (market) reform. Title belittles the depth of the conversation.
April 16, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Particularly good interview (excuse the blowing of our own EU trumpet)… especially on the tetradent approach of: 1. open to negotiation, 2. maintain vigilance, 3. develop new partnerships, 4. focus on internal (market) reform. Title belittles the depth of the conversation.
Comment in an FT article today:
“Bond market smells blood too now. When anything Trump does looks unsustainable, everyone knows what the trade is. He will be whipped by the bond market until he starts behaving. Could be quite a thrashing.”
The return of the all-powerful Bond Market of yesteryear 👹 ?
“Bond market smells blood too now. When anything Trump does looks unsustainable, everyone knows what the trade is. He will be whipped by the bond market until he starts behaving. Could be quite a thrashing.”
The return of the all-powerful Bond Market of yesteryear 👹 ?
April 11, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Comment in an FT article today:
“Bond market smells blood too now. When anything Trump does looks unsustainable, everyone knows what the trade is. He will be whipped by the bond market until he starts behaving. Could be quite a thrashing.”
The return of the all-powerful Bond Market of yesteryear 👹 ?
“Bond market smells blood too now. When anything Trump does looks unsustainable, everyone knows what the trade is. He will be whipped by the bond market until he starts behaving. Could be quite a thrashing.”
The return of the all-powerful Bond Market of yesteryear 👹 ?
Not sure I agree with all of it, but the gist is clear enough. “An economic Vietnam War”… cannot be a lot more damning than that. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-Chinese tariff fight.
www.foreignaffairs.com
April 10, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Not sure I agree with all of it, but the gist is clear enough. “An economic Vietnam War”… cannot be a lot more damning than that. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
🇺🇸- 🇨🇳 meet on the other side of the Leffer curve 📈📉
One important thing to note.
Yesterday's report had revenue at $3.009 trillion.
Now, with the add'l 50% tariffs on China, it's $2.843 trillion.
We've now flipped to the right side of the tariff Laffer Curve.
Yesterday's report had revenue at $3.009 trillion.
Now, with the add'l 50% tariffs on China, it's $2.843 trillion.
We've now flipped to the right side of the tariff Laffer Curve.
Here's a quick update to the @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff tracker to incorporate the add'l 50% US tariffs on China & China's add'l retaliation.
• The average effective US tariff rate is now 26.8%, the highest since 1903.
• US real GDP growth is -1.1pp lower over 2025.
1/3
• The average effective US tariff rate is now 26.8%, the highest since 1903.
• US real GDP growth is -1.1pp lower over 2025.
1/3
April 9, 2025 at 2:00 PM
🇺🇸- 🇨🇳 meet on the other side of the Leffer curve 📈📉
Alphaville is always good value for 💵 - this one is free - in this polycrisis I think the slogan should be “It’s the T-Bill - moron”
Has America discovered its ‘moron risk premium’? on.ft.com/4cq5eif MRP daddy @darioperkins.bsky.social with the answer.
Has America discovered its ‘moron risk premium’?
[FREE TO READ] Bond bombshell
on.ft.com
April 9, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Alphaville is always good value for 💵 - this one is free - in this polycrisis I think the slogan should be “It’s the T-Bill - moron”
Surprising how events evolve if you stick around long enough… how many economic commentators would have bet 10-1 on this (at the time of Greece’s failure to pay its IMF dues on 30 June 2015)?
Wonder what bet we should have made today looking back from 2035…
Wonder what bet we should have made today looking back from 2035…
For veterans of the Eurozone crisis, this is quite incredible - today Greece has a lower borrowing cost than both the UK and the US for their 10 year bonds.
I had to check, all of the previous so called 'PIIGS' (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) have lower borrowing costs than the US today.
I had to check, all of the previous so called 'PIIGS' (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) have lower borrowing costs than the US today.
April 9, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Surprising how events evolve if you stick around long enough… how many economic commentators would have bet 10-1 on this (at the time of Greece’s failure to pay its IMF dues on 30 June 2015)?
Wonder what bet we should have made today looking back from 2035…
Wonder what bet we should have made today looking back from 2035…
Surprisingly good trend on CO2 reduction from a larg(ish) country
The news has been more than a bit grim of late, so hooray for @carbonbrief.org providing some genuine and really meaningful **good** news: the UK's carbon emissions in 2024 were the lowest since 1872, because demand for fossil fuels just keeps decreasing.
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-...
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-...
March 13, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Surprisingly good trend on CO2 reduction from a larg(ish) country
on.ft.com/4iHtsH1
Well, well, EU defence bonds = kickstart real EU bond market = sucking sound for UST. What a cunning plan...
Well, well, EU defence bonds = kickstart real EU bond market = sucking sound for UST. What a cunning plan...
Investors dare to imagine a world beyond the dollar
The US could dismantle its own exorbitant privilege by pushing the big bond market beasts into the arms of others
on.ft.com
March 7, 2025 at 2:27 PM
on.ft.com/4iHtsH1
Well, well, EU defence bonds = kickstart real EU bond market = sucking sound for UST. What a cunning plan...
Well, well, EU defence bonds = kickstart real EU bond market = sucking sound for UST. What a cunning plan...
open.substack.com/pub/persuasi...
USA as a Patrimonial State. Interesting political theory take explaining the “Trump way” of doing things.
Nothing new, just surprising for the 🇺🇸 to take this fork in the road 1/4 of the way into the 21st century…
USA as a Patrimonial State. Interesting political theory take explaining the “Trump way” of doing things.
Nothing new, just surprising for the 🇺🇸 to take this fork in the road 1/4 of the way into the 21st century…
Sins of the Father
The United States is joining the ranks of patrimonial states. It’s nothing short of a revolution.
open.substack.com
March 6, 2025 at 2:11 PM
open.substack.com/pub/persuasi...
USA as a Patrimonial State. Interesting political theory take explaining the “Trump way” of doing things.
Nothing new, just surprising for the 🇺🇸 to take this fork in the road 1/4 of the way into the 21st century…
USA as a Patrimonial State. Interesting political theory take explaining the “Trump way” of doing things.
Nothing new, just surprising for the 🇺🇸 to take this fork in the road 1/4 of the way into the 21st century…
This is really really good. Ok, in French (EN subtitles) but direct,
clear and stating the obvious (which few politicians are ready to do quite so well currently). Highly recommended for 🇪🇺&🇺🇸
clear and stating the obvious (which few politicians are ready to do quite so well currently). Highly recommended for 🇪🇺&🇺🇸
March 6, 2025 at 10:25 AM
This is really really good. Ok, in French (EN subtitles) but direct,
clear and stating the obvious (which few politicians are ready to do quite so well currently). Highly recommended for 🇪🇺&🇺🇸
clear and stating the obvious (which few politicians are ready to do quite so well currently). Highly recommended for 🇪🇺&🇺🇸
Nice and efficient summary of DOGE to date 🤦🏻
you’re fired. wait you’re rehired. email us a list of things you’ve done today wait forget it you’re fired again. come back your job was important. you’re fired. or hired. come in to the office. wait the office has no computers go home. we are the department of government efficiency.
March 6, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Nice and efficient summary of DOGE to date 🤦🏻
At least some silver in the dark clouds…
There is one upside in all this. If Europe gets its act together it will be master in its own house, no longer subject to the whims of voters in a handful of American states thousands of miles away. We will no longer need to hang on the every word of a Trump or Vance. Something to hope and work for.
March 4, 2025 at 10:47 AM
At least some silver in the dark clouds…
Surprising (or perhaps not really) how some commentators can be so prescient - written 18 months ago. Applies word for word to today. Just more so
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
What Europe Should Have Done To Prepare For With Trump
Published Exactly 18 months ago
open.substack.com
March 3, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Surprising (or perhaps not really) how some commentators can be so prescient - written 18 months ago. Applies word for word to today. Just more so
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Francisco Peiró 🇪🇺
'A senior Kremlin official told me yesterday that even Moscow is surprised by President Donald Trump; that they had expected change, but not “such tremendous change.”' www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Live updates: Trump cancels news conference with Zelensky after contentious Oval Office meeting
The latest news on President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the new Congress.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 28, 2025 at 7:21 PM
'A senior Kremlin official told me yesterday that even Moscow is surprised by President Donald Trump; that they had expected change, but not “such tremendous change.”' www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Francisco Peiró 🇪🇺
Ukraine is Europe!
We stand by Ukraine.
We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the agressor.
Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.
We stand by Ukraine.
We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the agressor.
Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.
February 28, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Ukraine is Europe!
We stand by Ukraine.
We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the agressor.
Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.
We stand by Ukraine.
We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the agressor.
Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.
Double speed: What Merz and a German right-turn would mean for Europe: ecfr.eu/article/doub...
Double speed: What Merz and a German right-turn would mean for Europe
Friedrich Merz is on the precipice of becoming Germany’s next chancellor. If successful, his conservatism and quest for new allies to secure Europe’s nuclear deterrent could create a “two-speed Europe...
ecfr.eu
February 22, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Double speed: What Merz and a German right-turn would mean for Europe: ecfr.eu/article/doub...