Owen Griffiths
@ogriff79.bsky.social
Arts, photography, film, astronomy & weather. Hoping to keep this place less political and argumentative than twitter, but I'm left of centre and believe in a fair society and being kind to each other... And yes, I do resemble Bevis in real life.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Likely turning colder later next week. Interesting in 06z GEFS about one third bring significantly cold conditions to London daytime highs below freezing.
Unusual to see that with this lead time, something I’ve not seen in a while….
Unusual to see that with this lead time, something I’ve not seen in a while….
January 16, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Likely turning colder later next week. Interesting in 06z GEFS about one third bring significantly cold conditions to London daytime highs below freezing.
Unusual to see that with this lead time, something I’ve not seen in a while….
Unusual to see that with this lead time, something I’ve not seen in a while….
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Mmm traditional GFS makes a massive shift to its AI counterpart see at day 7 with previous previous run. Very cold easterlies on forward march across Europe.
January 16, 2026 at 4:24 PM
Mmm traditional GFS makes a massive shift to its AI counterpart see at day 7 with previous previous run. Very cold easterlies on forward march across Europe.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Latest GFS 12z operational run going for a major warming of the stratosphere, focused, somewhat unusually, on Canada, Greenland and the north Atlantic in the closing days of January - With a split of the SPV (Stratospheric Polar Vortex)
January 16, 2026 at 7:11 PM
Latest GFS 12z operational run going for a major warming of the stratosphere, focused, somewhat unusually, on Canada, Greenland and the north Atlantic in the closing days of January - With a split of the SPV (Stratospheric Polar Vortex)
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Operational model runs have wobbled quite a lot on the chance of a late January easterly blast, today. Their AI counterparts have remained bullish though with the GFS AI run especially, looking very cold and wintry in the extended period.
Interesting test for the AI coming up, methinks 👀
Interesting test for the AI coming up, methinks 👀
January 15, 2026 at 9:42 PM
Operational model runs have wobbled quite a lot on the chance of a late January easterly blast, today. Their AI counterparts have remained bullish though with the GFS AI run especially, looking very cold and wintry in the extended period.
Interesting test for the AI coming up, methinks 👀
Interesting test for the AI coming up, methinks 👀
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
No real change to this at the minute - models are clueless
The agreement of deep cold east of Scandinavia is fairly remarkable on the ECM AI mean, although the main uncertainty is around this mid-Atlantic trough that models seem to be playing catch-up with a bit and have been doing so over the last few weeks.
January 15, 2026 at 4:07 PM
No real change to this at the minute - models are clueless
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
The new snow forecast map feature is out in the latest version of the UK Snow Map app. Click the cloud icon bottom right and slide to see 4 days of #uksnow forecast. Tap the key labels to toggle layers on/off. Version 3.8.0 in the App Store and Play Store now.
January 15, 2026 at 7:28 PM
The new snow forecast map feature is out in the latest version of the UK Snow Map app. Click the cloud icon bottom right and slide to see 4 days of #uksnow forecast. Tap the key labels to toggle layers on/off. Version 3.8.0 in the App Store and Play Store now.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Here's a 12z round-up bringing you up to date on the Scandinavian High/Easterly Blast potential...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LG6V...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LG6V...
12z Model Round-Up: Scandinavian High/Easterly Blast Latest Developments...
YouTube video by GavsWeatherVids
www.youtube.com
January 15, 2026 at 7:57 PM
Here's a 12z round-up bringing you up to date on the Scandinavian High/Easterly Blast potential...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LG6V...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LG6V...
January 15, 2026 at 8:50 PM
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Oh how my heart is happy. Today I saw a kingfisher on my run. I cant tell you how many miles I've peered down waterways, only rarely catching flashes of blue. And here one was, on my running route.
It darted off before I could focus my phone. So just a snatched photo taken with trembly fingers.
It darted off before I could focus my phone. So just a snatched photo taken with trembly fingers.
January 15, 2026 at 10:57 AM
Oh how my heart is happy. Today I saw a kingfisher on my run. I cant tell you how many miles I've peered down waterways, only rarely catching flashes of blue. And here one was, on my running route.
It darted off before I could focus my phone. So just a snatched photo taken with trembly fingers.
It darted off before I could focus my phone. So just a snatched photo taken with trembly fingers.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Lovely morning in Clontarf. Golden light and reflections.
January 15, 2026 at 11:07 AM
Lovely morning in Clontarf. Golden light and reflections.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Rain warning area expanded today...
January 15, 2026 at 4:49 AM
Rain warning area expanded today...
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Increasingly cold and wintry easterlies on AI ECMWF model almost too seamless to be believed!
January 14, 2026 at 5:33 PM
Increasingly cold and wintry easterlies on AI ECMWF model almost too seamless to be believed!
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
I stand with Greenland. I just hope the UK has the cajonies to stand up to the barocca turd
January 14, 2026 at 1:45 PM
I stand with Greenland. I just hope the UK has the cajonies to stand up to the barocca turd
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Major high latitude blocking is expected to develop into next week. Our most recent cold spell developed from height rises in N Atlantic/Greenland and low heights in Scandinavia, so a very different configuration. For snow fans in S/SE UK this will be of greater interest w/potential for 🥶 E flows.
January 12, 2026 at 10:41 PM
Major high latitude blocking is expected to develop into next week. Our most recent cold spell developed from height rises in N Atlantic/Greenland and low heights in Scandinavia, so a very different configuration. For snow fans in S/SE UK this will be of greater interest w/potential for 🥶 E flows.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Seven forecasts from 10 Jan 00Z to 13 Jan 12Z showing the forecast verifying at 25 Jan 12Z: % of ensembles with 850mb temperatures < -10c. More than enough time for the forecast to make an absolute nonsense of this, but the trend is quite interesting.
January 13, 2026 at 9:59 PM
Seven forecasts from 10 Jan 00Z to 13 Jan 12Z showing the forecast verifying at 25 Jan 12Z: % of ensembles with 850mb temperatures < -10c. More than enough time for the forecast to make an absolute nonsense of this, but the trend is quite interesting.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Who needs social media for disinformation when you have these? Truly wild indeed
Truly wild that the Sun, Daily Mail, Daily Express & Daily Telegraph all covered false claims that net-zero will "cost" £7.6bn – or even £9tn – which assumes we could have free gas, free petrol, free petrol cars & free gas power plants if we scrapped net-zero
More here: bsky.app/profile/drsi...
More here: bsky.app/profile/drsi...
January 13, 2026 at 10:50 AM
Who needs social media for disinformation when you have these? Truly wild indeed
@winchesterweather.bsky.social look the the end of chart... 👀 #ukweather
[1/3] Cold peak confirmed around Saturday 10th with all four models converging near -7°C at 850hPa. From today onwards, models show steady warming trend through rest of week - ECM lifts to -3°C by Sunday 18th, GFS to -2°C. Previous cold signal weakening as forecast period extends.
January 13, 2026 at 9:10 AM
@winchesterweather.bsky.social look the the end of chart... 👀 #ukweather
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
January 12, 2026 at 7:28 PM
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Arne Slot reading the Xabi Alonso news
a close up of a man 's face with his eyes looking up
ALT: a close up of a man 's face with his eyes looking up
media.tenor.com
January 12, 2026 at 7:22 PM
Arne Slot reading the Xabi Alonso news
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Here's todays (shortened) ten to fourteen video update;
Big Model Shift Towards Late January Cold?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeiG...
Big Model Shift Towards Late January Cold?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeiG...
Ten Day Forecast: Big Model Shift Towards Late January Cold?
YouTube video by GavsWeatherVids
www.youtube.com
January 12, 2026 at 3:21 PM
Here's todays (shortened) ten to fourteen video update;
Big Model Shift Towards Late January Cold?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeiG...
Big Model Shift Towards Late January Cold?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeiG...
Joseph Starlink! 🤣
Elongation Botch Job Muskovite in four memes
January 12, 2026 at 12:50 PM
Joseph Starlink! 🤣
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
You're dictator pardoned political violent 1500 Insurrectionists, pardoned drug traffickers, and pardoned fraudsters... start with your fascit regime & its cabinet members.
January 12, 2026 at 2:51 AM
You're dictator pardoned political violent 1500 Insurrectionists, pardoned drug traffickers, and pardoned fraudsters... start with your fascit regime & its cabinet members.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
#ukweather a little test or our ai overlords. Same charts, these were, their responses...
January 11, 2026 at 4:41 PM
#ukweather a little test or our ai overlords. Same charts, these were, their responses...