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Richard Dixon

@catinsight.bsky.social

2.4K followers 160 following 600 posts

Catastrophe / climate risk / data viz at OAK Re Visiting Research Fellow & PhD @ University of Reading Associate Editor RMetS Weather. FRMetS. Otherwise eating noodle soup or watching cricket Own opinions etc. etc.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · Nov 13

I think I was supposed to introduce myself on Bluesky ages ago. So here's an introduction. Hello!

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 1d

Only one taking a chance...

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks !

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 1d

It's tempted me to do a quick check on some (albeit simulated) storms to see if there is indeed an impact.

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 1d

Current central pressure of Melissa at 892mb tied with the Labor Day hurricane ahead of landfall must be peak weathernerd material.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 1d

Don't worry, I went through my PhD with imposter syndrome and still have it even now aged 50...

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 1d

In the words of the Beach Boys: I guess I just wasn't made for these times...!

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 2d

Maybe we're just all too busy I guess but I thought - incorrectly - the main purpose of social media was discourse. Feels like it's had its day and the bifurcation of social media into different camps has robbed us of discussion.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 2d

It's just nice to get a reply occasionally - or a reply to a question I ask. I thought I'd give it another go today but I've practically given up.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 2d

Any sense for how we might mimic the (at least my perceived) more frequent sampling of the storms in recent years in these numbers that permits us to spot RI more easily? Admittedly the changes are stark enough to probably nullify this effect anyway.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 2d

Another hot take: put 6 or 7 things on here that I wondered might provoke a bit of discussion. Bit of interest, but not a single comment. One thing I'll say about Twitter is that people interacted. When did talking about stuff die? Or it could just be that most of my followers are bots...

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 2d

Hot take, but part of the world's seas in peak season where #Melissa grew has seen very little change in crude conditions for rapid cyclogenesis (mid-level moisture, shear < 5 m/s, SSTs > 28c) recently. A narrative could be edge-of-season increases in favourable conditions: e.g. 2nd half of Oct.

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 2d

Current #Melissa eye diameter of 10nm & 45km wide hurricane force winds projected along current track wouldn't bring much wind impact to Kingston (SE Jamaica). So any eyewall replacement and widening of the storm could bring Kingston into play. But the surge is another beast altogether...

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Reposted by Richard Dixon

Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 2d

This 150M cat bond for Jamaica has a trigger design that uses hurricane central pressure and location.

That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.

www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 2d

After this year I was beginning to think that Bluesky wasn't the place for pre- and post-event hurricane detail. I stand corrected, my feed is awash !

(I still wish there was more discussion though).

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 2d

A few thoughts on #Melissa from historical and climate context: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 3d

SSTs in the region where #Melissa has been developing are well above average - even compared to the past 30 years of warmer sea. Interestingly, also shear in the part of the world has been fairly consistently low (compared to 1950 onwards) since August... bit of a "loaded gun" you could argue...

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 3d

Lovely to have him back on the mic. Had a chat with him up at Worcester this season and was great to see him seemingly back on form.

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 3d

Looking at history post 25th Oct (when #Melissa got going) as of 06Z/26th it's the 3rd fastest rapid deepener (12h windspeed delta) from that date onwards. Late season warm seas & activity a real talking point for those of us working to understanding present-day hurricane risk for their companies.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 4d

I can see a 25kt 12hr intensification of #Melissa - pretty good going for this time of year or later, but by no means unprecedented as left chart of max 12h intensification after this day of the year in HURDAT shows. And let's not forget how wild late-season 2020 was for rapid intensification.

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 5d

Unsurprisingly the longer #Melissa takes to make the turn, the longer it spends over deep warm seas and the more intense it gets. Contrast the tracks from ECMWF Ensembles that hit the eastern side of Jamaica vs western side... (beautiful display of data from deepmind.google.com/science/weat...)

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 5d

Interestingly, but somewhat unsurprisingly, from that last chart, absolutely nowhere in the UK gets their strongest winds from a NE or E wind. The nearest ERA gridpoint to Deal shows similarly predictably predominantly S or W winds have all the notably strong (>30 m/s) gusts.

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 5d

A discussion with a photographer friend in Deal trying to snap Deal Pier in strong winds and very high tide said that Benjamin was nothing on the sea on 26 Feb 2024 in a strong easterly. Wasn't a named storm, but got me thinking about what wind direction causes strongest winds in the UK:

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 5d

I'm increasingly of the mind that the UK will be parroting the US by 2029, so make the most of the next few years before it all goes to hell in a handcart and right-wing extremism is increasingly normalised and protected.

Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 5d

I sense this is less & less an outlet for discussion, but I'll try. I did a chart to show the farce of how Reform gets a greater % of vote where immigration is lower (and thus higher % of British). The added chilling note is how much the % of that vote increased in the two by-elections in 2025.

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Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · 6d

The old devil-in-the-detail again. Storm #Benjamin yesterday in Met Office hi-res model looked pretty feisy for my part of far East Kent on the coast: main pressure gradient potentially looking like it's shifted further east in this morning's forecast and less windy (but still blowy) for us.