Matt Patterson
@mattpattclimate.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the University of St Andrews and NCAS in climate science and ML. Interests in climate dynamics, jet streams and long-term prediction. Formerly at University of Reading and University of Oxford.
Reposted by Matt Patterson
We are convening an EGU 2026 session on the large-scale atmospheric circulation in past, present and future climates! Always a fun and vibrant session, abstract deadline is 15th Jan 💨🌎
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
Session CL4.2
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org
November 18, 2025 at 5:59 PM
We are convening an EGU 2026 session on the large-scale atmospheric circulation in past, present and future climates! Always a fun and vibrant session, abstract deadline is 15th Jan 💨🌎
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Some model output suggests an #ssw sudden stratospheric warming event may take place soon..
More details on this and its possible impacts on our weather...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/wh...
More details on this and its possible impacts on our weather...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/wh...
What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming?
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is a meteorological event that can have a significant impact on winter weather, particularly in the UK and across Europe.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
November 17, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Some model output suggests an #ssw sudden stratospheric warming event may take place soon..
More details on this and its possible impacts on our weather...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/wh...
More details on this and its possible impacts on our weather...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/wh...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
I was part of a fun study led by Yu-Chiao Liang comparing the response to Arctic sea ice loss of Google's NeuralGCM & two models in PAMIP. This is one of the first studies evaluating a hybrid ML climate model at something it wasn't explicitly trained for.
Main takeaway: ...
Main takeaway: ...
November 12, 2025 at 4:50 PM
I was part of a fun study led by Yu-Chiao Liang comparing the response to Arctic sea ice loss of Google's NeuralGCM & two models in PAMIP. This is one of the first studies evaluating a hybrid ML climate model at something it wasn't explicitly trained for.
Main takeaway: ...
Main takeaway: ...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
The 2025-26 UK storm season has begun, and this week marks 10 years since the first named storm.
We spoke to NCAS researchers about what to expect for the new season and as the climate continues to warm.
ncas.ac.uk/uk-storm-sea...
We spoke to NCAS researchers about what to expect for the new season and as the climate continues to warm.
ncas.ac.uk/uk-storm-sea...
UK Storm Season 2025–26: Names, causes, and what to expect - NCAS
Find out why storms are named, what causes storms, and what to expect this season.
ncas.ac.uk
November 14, 2025 at 1:14 PM
The 2025-26 UK storm season has begun, and this week marks 10 years since the first named storm.
We spoke to NCAS researchers about what to expect for the new season and as the climate continues to warm.
ncas.ac.uk/uk-storm-sea...
We spoke to NCAS researchers about what to expect for the new season and as the climate continues to warm.
ncas.ac.uk/uk-storm-sea...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
The ensemble mean from today's IFS subseasonal run almost predicts the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record 😮
Will be interesting to see if this signal progresses as it is just on the cusp of typical SSW prediction lead-times – daily runs of 101 members can still vary a fair bit
Will be interesting to see if this signal progresses as it is just on the cusp of typical SSW prediction lead-times – daily runs of 101 members can still vary a fair bit
November 12, 2025 at 8:32 PM
The ensemble mean from today's IFS subseasonal run almost predicts the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record 😮
Will be interesting to see if this signal progresses as it is just on the cusp of typical SSW prediction lead-times – daily runs of 101 members can still vary a fair bit
Will be interesting to see if this signal progresses as it is just on the cusp of typical SSW prediction lead-times – daily runs of 101 members can still vary a fair bit
Very rarely does this happen to me so when it happened today I felt the need to mark it with a meme.
(Calculations of transports in ocean straits, StraitFlux doi.org/10.5194/gmd-... for those interested)
(Calculations of transports in ocean straits, StraitFlux doi.org/10.5194/gmd-... for those interested)
November 11, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Very rarely does this happen to me so when it happened today I felt the need to mark it with a meme.
(Calculations of transports in ocean straits, StraitFlux doi.org/10.5194/gmd-... for those interested)
(Calculations of transports in ocean straits, StraitFlux doi.org/10.5194/gmd-... for those interested)
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Latest ECMWF subseasonal forecast shows ensemble mean zonal wind of about 5 m/s at 10 hPa in late November, with roughly 20–30 % of ensemble members indicating a reversal to easterlies (i.e. going < 0 m/s).
This suggests a non-zero probabilty for a major SSW event!
This suggests a non-zero probabilty for a major SSW event!
November 10, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Latest ECMWF subseasonal forecast shows ensemble mean zonal wind of about 5 m/s at 10 hPa in late November, with roughly 20–30 % of ensemble members indicating a reversal to easterlies (i.e. going < 0 m/s).
This suggests a non-zero probabilty for a major SSW event!
This suggests a non-zero probabilty for a major SSW event!
Reposted by Matt Patterson
🚨🌡️🔥🌍🌤️🚨
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
November 4, 2025 at 1:05 PM
🚨🌡️🔥🌍🌤️🚨
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
The other key takeaway here about these kinds of winters is that we see more frequent early winter -AO/-NAO & stratospheric warming events (as the latest Euro weeklies below suggest), followed by a much stronger polar vortex in mid-late winter (Jan-Feb)
November 3, 2025 at 10:05 PM
The other key takeaway here about these kinds of winters is that we see more frequent early winter -AO/-NAO & stratospheric warming events (as the latest Euro weeklies below suggest), followed by a much stronger polar vortex in mid-late winter (Jan-Feb)
Reposted by Matt Patterson
📢 New paper out!
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Abstract. The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such, tipping can have significant climate impacts; i...
doi.org
October 28, 2025 at 12:27 PM
📢 New paper out!
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Hurricane Melissa will soon make landfall in Jamaica
With a central pressure of 892 mb, the Category 5 storm is provisionally the joint third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record
Catastrophic sustained winds of 185 mph & intense rainfall bring a life-threatening situation
With a central pressure of 892 mb, the Category 5 storm is provisionally the joint third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record
Catastrophic sustained winds of 185 mph & intense rainfall bring a life-threatening situation
October 28, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Hurricane Melissa will soon make landfall in Jamaica
With a central pressure of 892 mb, the Category 5 storm is provisionally the joint third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record
Catastrophic sustained winds of 185 mph & intense rainfall bring a life-threatening situation
With a central pressure of 892 mb, the Category 5 storm is provisionally the joint third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record
Catastrophic sustained winds of 185 mph & intense rainfall bring a life-threatening situation
Reposted by Matt Patterson
*** 1 metre of rain ***
Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, is forecast to bring catastrophic damage to parts of the Caribbean
The mountains of Jamaica could receive 1 metre of rain, resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides
Destructive winds and storm surges are also likely
The mountains of Jamaica could receive 1 metre of rain, resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides
Destructive winds and storm surges are also likely
October 27, 2025 at 6:03 PM
*** 1 metre of rain ***
Reposted by Matt Patterson
So people demand "AI" sycophancy, refuse to interact w/ *less* sycophantic "AI", & then get increasingly ill-disposed toward interacting w/ other human beings, preferring, again, an "AI" system that is actively locking them into a loop of skills dependency, bias confirmation, & hostility.
SEEMS BAD
SEEMS BAD
October 24, 2025 at 2:53 PM
So people demand "AI" sycophancy, refuse to interact w/ *less* sycophantic "AI", & then get increasingly ill-disposed toward interacting w/ other human beings, preferring, again, an "AI" system that is actively locking them into a loop of skills dependency, bias confirmation, & hostility.
SEEMS BAD
SEEMS BAD
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Light speed is fast, but space is vast...
November 17, 2024 at 10:54 PM
Light speed is fast, but space is vast...
“On average, people spend 56.6 hours a year - equivalent to two days and nine hours - talking about it [weather], with 60% saying it’s their go-to small talk topic.“
Weather doesn’t need to stay at small talk!
Weather doesn’t need to stay at small talk!
Is your wardrobe #WeatherReady for the winter?
A recent survey found that 35% of us check the weather forecast before planning what to wear.
Find out how you can be prepared (including with your outfits) for any impactful weather this winter 👇
A recent survey found that 35% of us check the weather forecast before planning what to wear.
Find out how you can be prepared (including with your outfits) for any impactful weather this winter 👇
Laundry and outfit planning among the leading motivations behind checking the forecast, research reveals
Research from the Met Office has revealed that the most popular reason people check the weather forecast is to decide whether to hang out the washing.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
October 23, 2025 at 12:40 PM
“On average, people spend 56.6 hours a year - equivalent to two days and nine hours - talking about it [weather], with 60% saying it’s their go-to small talk topic.“
Weather doesn’t need to stay at small talk!
Weather doesn’t need to stay at small talk!
From St Andrews you can see a striking inversion looking north towards the Tay. Bright sunshine in Fife, thick cloud in Dundee.
#Fife #Weather at 10:01
🌡10.5°C (🔺11.3°C/🔻10.5°C)
💧97%RH
🌬SW 0.9mph, Max Gust 6.9mph
🌀987.4mb Steady
☔0.0mm/hr, 1.20mm
🏭Air quality:
🟢PM2.5: 2.8 (AQI 1, Low pollution)
🟢PM10: 53.8 (AQI 4, Moderate pollution)
🌡10.5°C (🔺11.3°C/🔻10.5°C)
💧97%RH
🌬SW 0.9mph, Max Gust 6.9mph
🌀987.4mb Steady
☔0.0mm/hr, 1.20mm
🏭Air quality:
🟢PM2.5: 2.8 (AQI 1, Low pollution)
🟢PM10: 53.8 (AQI 4, Moderate pollution)
October 20, 2025 at 9:26 AM
From St Andrews you can see a striking inversion looking north towards the Tay. Bright sunshine in Fife, thick cloud in Dundee.
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Longtime climate scientist J. Michael Wallace got his start in meteorology back when pre-internet conspiracy theorists asserted that a nuclear test caused a tornado... Now he reflects on a heap of lessons learned as global warming science has piled up. revkin.substack.com/p/warming-wo... 🧪
October 15, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Longtime climate scientist J. Michael Wallace got his start in meteorology back when pre-internet conspiracy theorists asserted that a nuclear test caused a tornado... Now he reflects on a heap of lessons learned as global warming science has piled up. revkin.substack.com/p/warming-wo... 🧪
Reposted by Matt Patterson
⚠️ England has 2nd worst harvest on record
New Defra data shows that 2024 harvest has been pushed into 3rd place, as 3️⃣ of the 5️⃣ worst harvests on record seen this decade alone.
Net zero only credible solution to reduce impacts of climate change.
eciu.net/analysis/re...
New Defra data shows that 2024 harvest has been pushed into 3rd place, as 3️⃣ of the 5️⃣ worst harvests on record seen this decade alone.
Net zero only credible solution to reduce impacts of climate change.
eciu.net/analysis/re...
October 14, 2025 at 10:25 AM
⚠️ England has 2nd worst harvest on record
New Defra data shows that 2024 harvest has been pushed into 3rd place, as 3️⃣ of the 5️⃣ worst harvests on record seen this decade alone.
Net zero only credible solution to reduce impacts of climate change.
eciu.net/analysis/re...
New Defra data shows that 2024 harvest has been pushed into 3rd place, as 3️⃣ of the 5️⃣ worst harvests on record seen this decade alone.
Net zero only credible solution to reduce impacts of climate change.
eciu.net/analysis/re...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
An atmospheric general circulation model you can run on a Python Jupyter notebook?! Heck yeah! Check out this project- both an educational tool for undergraduates/graduate students, and a research tool for scientists interested in idealized climate modeling.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
October 13, 2025 at 7:35 PM
An atmospheric general circulation model you can run on a Python Jupyter notebook?! Heck yeah! Check out this project- both an educational tool for undergraduates/graduate students, and a research tool for scientists interested in idealized climate modeling.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
For so long, fossil fuel projects have said their contribution to climate change is "negligible".
Turns out that's wrong.
Our research in NPJ Climate Action proves it.
Every tonne of CO2 matters.
@21stcenturyweather.bsky.social
@minderoo.bsky.social
#climatechange
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Turns out that's wrong.
Our research in NPJ Climate Action proves it.
Every tonne of CO2 matters.
@21stcenturyweather.bsky.social
@minderoo.bsky.social
#climatechange
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Quantifying the regional to global climate impacts of individual fossil fuel projects to inform decision-making - npj Climate Action
npj Climate Action - Quantifying the regional to global climate impacts of individual fossil fuel projects to inform decision-making
www.nature.com
October 13, 2025 at 10:07 AM
For so long, fossil fuel projects have said their contribution to climate change is "negligible".
Turns out that's wrong.
Our research in NPJ Climate Action proves it.
Every tonne of CO2 matters.
@21stcenturyweather.bsky.social
@minderoo.bsky.social
#climatechange
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Turns out that's wrong.
Our research in NPJ Climate Action proves it.
Every tonne of CO2 matters.
@21stcenturyweather.bsky.social
@minderoo.bsky.social
#climatechange
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Coming soon in November - some incredible scientific computing training by @ncas-uk.bsky.social. Just starting out? Or needing to brush up on new tools? We've got it covered 👇
Our Introduction to Scientific Computing training course is coming soon!
From the Linux Shell to Python, this course will prepare you to use computing in environmental science research.
4 November, online
17 – 21 November, Leeds
Apply by 31 October:
ncas.ac.uk/study-with-u...
From the Linux Shell to Python, this course will prepare you to use computing in environmental science research.
4 November, online
17 – 21 November, Leeds
Apply by 31 October:
ncas.ac.uk/study-with-u...
Introduction to Scientific Computing - NCAS
The Introduction to Scientific Computing course covers the skills needed for effective data management and analysis using Linux and Python.
ncas.ac.uk
October 10, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Coming soon in November - some incredible scientific computing training by @ncas-uk.bsky.social. Just starting out? Or needing to brush up on new tools? We've got it covered 👇
Reposted by Matt Patterson
How does working in atmospheric science during a climate crisis impact you?
We asked our colleagues to share their thoughts on the theme of this year's World Mental Health Day - mental health in catastrophes and emergencies.
#WMHD25 #WorldMentalHealthDay
We asked our colleagues to share their thoughts on the theme of this year's World Mental Health Day - mental health in catastrophes and emergencies.
#WMHD25 #WorldMentalHealthDay
October 10, 2025 at 8:57 AM
How does working in atmospheric science during a climate crisis impact you?
We asked our colleagues to share their thoughts on the theme of this year's World Mental Health Day - mental health in catastrophes and emergencies.
#WMHD25 #WorldMentalHealthDay
We asked our colleagues to share their thoughts on the theme of this year's World Mental Health Day - mental health in catastrophes and emergencies.
#WMHD25 #WorldMentalHealthDay
Reposted by Matt Patterson
There's a strong high over NW Europe today.
In south-western UK, sea-level pressure is now widely reading 1034 mb (interestingly a tad higher than last night's GFS run predicted), which is the highest reading in that area since the first two days of March (peaked near 1037 mb).
In south-western UK, sea-level pressure is now widely reading 1034 mb (interestingly a tad higher than last night's GFS run predicted), which is the highest reading in that area since the first two days of March (peaked near 1037 mb).
October 10, 2025 at 9:01 AM
There's a strong high over NW Europe today.
In south-western UK, sea-level pressure is now widely reading 1034 mb (interestingly a tad higher than last night's GFS run predicted), which is the highest reading in that area since the first two days of March (peaked near 1037 mb).
In south-western UK, sea-level pressure is now widely reading 1034 mb (interestingly a tad higher than last night's GFS run predicted), which is the highest reading in that area since the first two days of March (peaked near 1037 mb).
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Machine learning can now predict El Niño up to 23 months ahead, using wind data from the Indian Ocean. Dr Ioana Colfescu shows how AI cuts complexity, boosts accuracy, and helps us prep for climate extremes.
Read more:
ncas.ac.uk/in-conversat...
Read more:
ncas.ac.uk/in-conversat...
In conversation with Dr Ioana Colfescu: Machine learning can predict ENSO - NCAS
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular climate pattern that brings heavy rain, droughts and temperature changes around the world. ENSO cycles between El Niño and La Nina every 2-7…
ncas.ac.uk
September 29, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Machine learning can now predict El Niño up to 23 months ahead, using wind data from the Indian Ocean. Dr Ioana Colfescu shows how AI cuts complexity, boosts accuracy, and helps us prep for climate extremes.
Read more:
ncas.ac.uk/in-conversat...
Read more:
ncas.ac.uk/in-conversat...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
As a theoretical cosmologist, I'm frequently asked "what is the benefit of the work you're doing for people's lives?" Nothing I work on makes money or cures disease.
There are a few different answers one can give, at various levels of "convincing" / "actually relevant to why the work is done."
1/🧵
There are a few different answers one can give, at various levels of "convincing" / "actually relevant to why the work is done."
1/🧵
October 3, 2025 at 7:32 PM
As a theoretical cosmologist, I'm frequently asked "what is the benefit of the work you're doing for people's lives?" Nothing I work on makes money or cures disease.
There are a few different answers one can give, at various levels of "convincing" / "actually relevant to why the work is done."
1/🧵
There are a few different answers one can give, at various levels of "convincing" / "actually relevant to why the work is done."
1/🧵