Kody Carmody
@kcarmody.bsky.social
Macro, public, labor, computational, uh, etc. PhD student at UVA!
Fair warning that I may end up bleating about lifting and cats more than econ
he
Fair warning that I may end up bleating about lifting and cats more than econ
he
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Saw an ancestor of this paper as a talk and liked it a lot! Glad to see it’s found a good home. Everything Matthias does is must-read imho
New paper coming out in Philosophy and Phenomenological Research: "Consciousness doesn't do that". I explain why I believe that animal sentience research is in large part built on sand. In my opinion, we should be skeptical of many of the claims made in this field. philpapers.org/rec/MICCDD
Matthias Michel, Consciousness doesn't do that - PhilPapers
The question of which mental functions require consciousness has recently come to the forefront because of its relevance for investigating animal consciousness. Finding out that an animal can perform ...
philpapers.org
January 14, 2026 at 11:50 PM
Saw an ancestor of this paper as a talk and liked it a lot! Glad to see it’s found a good home. Everything Matthias does is must-read imho
Reposted by Kody Carmody
After 21 years, I'm going to stop the daily posting to my blog Calculated Risk. Thanks to everyone!
I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com
I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 10:01 PM
After 21 years, I'm going to stop the daily posting to my blog Calculated Risk. Thanks to everyone!
I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com
I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what ...
www.employamerica.org
January 13, 2026 at 11:09 AM
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
Reposted by Kody Carmody
1/ We found that deep sequence models memorize atomic facts "geometrically" -- not as an associative lookup table as often imagined.
This opens up practical questions on reasoning/memory/discovery, and also poses a theoretical "memorization puzzle."
This opens up practical questions on reasoning/memory/discovery, and also poses a theoretical "memorization puzzle."
January 8, 2026 at 8:31 PM
1/ We found that deep sequence models memorize atomic facts "geometrically" -- not as an associative lookup table as often imagined.
This opens up practical questions on reasoning/memory/discovery, and also poses a theoretical "memorization puzzle."
This opens up practical questions on reasoning/memory/discovery, and also poses a theoretical "memorization puzzle."
Reposted by Kody Carmody
For me, the most difficult part is often the lies.— www.unpopularfront.news/p/living-in-...
Living in the Lie
And How Not To
www.unpopularfront.news
January 8, 2026 at 1:40 PM
For me, the most difficult part is often the lies.— www.unpopularfront.news/p/living-in-...
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Watching Tarun Ramadorai's lecture "Household Finance in Action" from the AEAs this year now!
www.aeaweb.org/webcasts/202...
www.aeaweb.org/webcasts/202...
January 6, 2026 at 7:13 PM
Watching Tarun Ramadorai's lecture "Household Finance in Action" from the AEAs this year now!
www.aeaweb.org/webcasts/202...
www.aeaweb.org/webcasts/202...
Reposted by Kody Carmody
good post.
as a bellman aficionado, "Every theoretical and practical result in reinforcement learning shows that it doesn’t leverage computation. People like reinforcement learning because of the ethos, not because it scales well." really sung to me
as a bellman aficionado, "Every theoretical and practical result in reinforcement learning shows that it doesn’t leverage computation. People like reinforcement learning because of the ethos, not because it scales well." really sung to me
Revisiting Sutton’s Bitter Lesson in the wake of GPT-5.
The Negroni Variation
Revisiting Sutton’s Bitter Lesson essay in the light of GPT5
www.argmin.net
August 11, 2025 at 2:54 PM
good post.
as a bellman aficionado, "Every theoretical and practical result in reinforcement learning shows that it doesn’t leverage computation. People like reinforcement learning because of the ethos, not because it scales well." really sung to me
as a bellman aficionado, "Every theoretical and practical result in reinforcement learning shows that it doesn’t leverage computation. People like reinforcement learning because of the ethos, not because it scales well." really sung to me
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Here are some key takeaways from the negotiated rulemaking dataset that was released yesterday.
--Only 3.5% of programs will likely fail the earnings metric, but it's disproportionately for-profits and certificates.
--Nearly 30% of grad/professional programs are over the new annual lending limits.
--Only 3.5% of programs will likely fail the earnings metric, but it's disproportionately for-profits and certificates.
--Nearly 30% of grad/professional programs are over the new annual lending limits.
Key Takeaways from the Negotiated Rulemaking Data Release
I thought that the end of 2025 was going to be relatively quiet when I wrote my last piece a couple of weeks ago, but my words to the Chronicle of Higher Education for their 25-year retrospective c…
robertkelchen.com
December 31, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Here are some key takeaways from the negotiated rulemaking dataset that was released yesterday.
--Only 3.5% of programs will likely fail the earnings metric, but it's disproportionately for-profits and certificates.
--Nearly 30% of grad/professional programs are over the new annual lending limits.
--Only 3.5% of programs will likely fail the earnings metric, but it's disproportionately for-profits and certificates.
--Nearly 30% of grad/professional programs are over the new annual lending limits.
Reposted by Kody Carmody
"With the exception of libertarians, Modern Liberalism is wholly at peace with requiring (say) even mature adults to wear seatbelts in a car and mandating motor-cycle helmets to bikers." www.liberalcurrents.com/ezra-klein-s...
Ezra Klein, Self-Harm, and Liberal Perfectionism
From the beginning, liberals have felt the need to promote the development and flourishing of human nature in light of the good even if they disagreed about what it might be.
www.liberalcurrents.com
December 11, 2025 at 5:15 PM
"With the exception of libertarians, Modern Liberalism is wholly at peace with requiring (say) even mature adults to wear seatbelts in a car and mandating motor-cycle helmets to bikers." www.liberalcurrents.com/ezra-klein-s...
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Weekly seasonal adjustment is a beast, especially around the holidays. I used to track claims data and came to believe it’s best ignored between Thanksgiving and New Years, start checking back in again in mid-Jan (and then close your eyes again around Easter/spring breaks)
December 11, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Weekly seasonal adjustment is a beast, especially around the holidays. I used to track claims data and came to believe it’s best ignored between Thanksgiving and New Years, start checking back in again in mid-Jan (and then close your eyes again around Easter/spring breaks)
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Any algorithmic decision-making has both a prediction/inference AND a preference function over errors -- new NBER wp highlights how preference alignment can be too narrow within a given setting #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/system/files...
www.nber.org/system/files...
November 26, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Any algorithmic decision-making has both a prediction/inference AND a preference function over errors -- new NBER wp highlights how preference alignment can be too narrow within a given setting #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/system/files...
www.nber.org/system/files...
Reposted by Kody Carmody
This is a fascinating paper. It's the first (afaik) to actually document food&drink&retail scheduling unpredictability using actual firm data.
It illustrates v clearly why unpredictable scheduling makes these jobs so difficult:
It illustrates v clearly why unpredictable scheduling makes these jobs so difficult:
Check out Hannah awesome JMP on job schedule unpredictability and how minimum wage policy affects such unpredictability: hannahfarkas.github.io/files/The_Ec...
November 25, 2025 at 5:03 PM
This is a fascinating paper. It's the first (afaik) to actually document food&drink&retail scheduling unpredictability using actual firm data.
It illustrates v clearly why unpredictable scheduling makes these jobs so difficult:
It illustrates v clearly why unpredictable scheduling makes these jobs so difficult:
Reposted by Kody Carmody
"The Bayesian approach, despite its virtues, changes the topic" made me laugh. really nice paper, much on the value of suitably constrained methodological anarchy #linklog
www.stat.berkeley.edu
November 20, 2025 at 12:42 AM
"The Bayesian approach, despite its virtues, changes the topic" made me laugh. really nice paper, much on the value of suitably constrained methodological anarchy #linklog
Reposted by Kody Carmody
every now and then i go back to this post on the bootstrap by @rabaath.bsky.social and i marvel at how good it is
www.sumsar.net/blog/2015/04...
www.sumsar.net/blog/2015/04...
The Non-parametric Bootstrap as a Bayesian Model
The non-parametric bootstrap was my first love. I was lost in a muddy swamp of zs, ts and ps when I first saw her. Conceptually beautiful, simple to implement, easy to understand (I thought back then,...
www.sumsar.net
November 19, 2025 at 4:22 AM
every now and then i go back to this post on the bootstrap by @rabaath.bsky.social and i marvel at how good it is
www.sumsar.net/blog/2015/04...
www.sumsar.net/blog/2015/04...
Reposted by Kody Carmody
No, the neo-Nazism of young Republican staffers is not driven by economic anxiety
www.vox.com/politics/468...
www.vox.com/politics/468...
November 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
No, the neo-Nazism of young Republican staffers is not driven by economic anxiety
www.vox.com/politics/468...
www.vox.com/politics/468...
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Global solutions with adaptive sparse grids are now implemented in Dynare.jl, thanks to @compsimon.bsky.social and team! This should substantially improve the ease of implementing fully nonlinear medium-scale macro models.
New Dynare working paper (with source code!): “Scalable Global Solution Techniques for High-Dimensional Models in Dynare” by Aryan Eftekhari, Michel Juillard, Normann Rion and Simon Scheidegger
www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dyna...
github.com/NormannR/HDM...
www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dyna...
github.com/NormannR/HDM...
www.dynare.org
November 17, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Global solutions with adaptive sparse grids are now implemented in Dynare.jl, thanks to @compsimon.bsky.social and team! This should substantially improve the ease of implementing fully nonlinear medium-scale macro models.
Reposted by Kody Carmody
i've been thinking for a while about this specific connection between economic theory and AI alignment and hoping someone would write it up. they did, and only a few years before i thought about it! #linklog
November 15, 2025 at 5:35 PM
i've been thinking for a while about this specific connection between economic theory and AI alignment and hoping someone would write it up. they did, and only a few years before i thought about it! #linklog
Reposted by Kody Carmody
NBER grants to fund research into economic measurement - I find this agenda very compelling and important #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/news/nber-la...
www.nber.org/news/nber-la...
November 13, 2025 at 1:32 PM
NBER grants to fund research into economic measurement - I find this agenda very compelling and important #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/news/nber-la...
www.nber.org/news/nber-la...
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Really interesting new paper that changed my priors on recent shifts in college education! In short, strong labor markets explain most of the decline in community college enrollments, while four-year enrollments have actually remained similar. See also www.chalkbeat.org/2025/11/11/i....
Joe Winkelmann & I have released a new @wheelockpolicybu.bsky.social working paper:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
We show stronger labor markets since 2009 explain most of the decline in community college enrollments.
wheelockpolicycenter.org/high-quality...
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
We show stronger labor markets since 2009 explain most of the decline in community college enrollments.
wheelockpolicycenter.org/high-quality...
November 12, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Really interesting new paper that changed my priors on recent shifts in college education! In short, strong labor markets explain most of the decline in community college enrollments, while four-year enrollments have actually remained similar. See also www.chalkbeat.org/2025/11/11/i....
Reposted by Kody Carmody
@arnabdatta.bsky.social is editing a fascinating new series about drawing lessons from what worked and didn’t in the CHIPS Act. It’s this kind of nitty gritty operations analysis that is just as important as legal and authorities focused post mortums. www.factorysettings.org/p/introducin...
Introducing Factory Settings
A new series about how CHIPS succeeded
www.factorysettings.org
November 10, 2025 at 11:14 PM
@arnabdatta.bsky.social is editing a fascinating new series about drawing lessons from what worked and didn’t in the CHIPS Act. It’s this kind of nitty gritty operations analysis that is just as important as legal and authorities focused post mortums. www.factorysettings.org/p/introducin...
Reposted by Kody Carmody
the bleakest moment in this article is the point where a heritage staffer, horrified by fuentes, discovers that "a growing number" of heritage interns are groypers
My assumption is that the New York Post has better sources inside Heritage than most other press outlets. One tidbit of note: Princeton's Robert P. George, a Heritage trustee, is said to be pushing fellow board members to oust its president Kevin Roberts. Hope he succeeds.
Exclusive | Heritage Foundation in revolt over Tucker Carlson defense after controversial Nick Fuentes interview: ‘Footsie with literal Nazis’
“I’m disgusted by this,” said one Heritage staffer.
nypost.com
November 4, 2025 at 2:10 AM
the bleakest moment in this article is the point where a heritage staffer, horrified by fuentes, discovers that "a growing number" of heritage interns are groypers
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Good @skandaamarnath.bsky.social interview by @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom — Shift Key with Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins
Electricity prices are the biggest economic issue in the New Jersey governor’s race, which is perhaps next month’s most closely watched election. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate and frontrunn...
overcast.fm
October 29, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Good @skandaamarnath.bsky.social interview by @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms.
overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
Reposted by Kody Carmody
Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball!
This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
Economics Literature Search
Full-text search across 15,000+ papers from top economics journals and NBER working papers. Track how empirical methods have evolved over time.
paulgp.com
November 2, 2025 at 4:43 AM
Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball!
This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.
paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...