Robert Kelchen
@robertkelchen.com
Professor & department head, University of Tennessee, Knoxville. I study higher ed finance, accountability, and financial aid. Washington Monthly rankings data editor. Dad, gardener, and baker. Personal account.
https://robertkelchen.com/
https://robertkelchen.com/
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
Community college enrollment has been declining since 2009/10. The optimal policy response to this depends on the root of this decline.
I'm thrilled @nber.org today released my working paper with Harvard PhD Joe Winkelmann titled:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
I'm thrilled @nber.org today released my working paper with Harvard PhD Joe Winkelmann titled:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
December 1, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Community college enrollment has been declining since 2009/10. The optimal policy response to this depends on the root of this decline.
I'm thrilled @nber.org today released my working paper with Harvard PhD Joe Winkelmann titled:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
I'm thrilled @nber.org today released my working paper with Harvard PhD Joe Winkelmann titled:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
A lot has happened this year. If you'd like a recap of what's happened to education research and statistics, here's my attempt. This might be a good one to listen to on your commute today. (Audio play button below headline. 16 minutes long.) hechingerreport.org/proof-points...
How Trump 2.0 upended education research and statistics in one year
Decades of carefully built infrastructure aimed at improving and tracking how American children learn vanished in an ideological attack
hechingerreport.org
December 1, 2025 at 12:35 PM
A lot has happened this year. If you'd like a recap of what's happened to education research and statistics, here's my attempt. This might be a good one to listen to on your commute today. (Audio play button below headline. 16 minutes long.) hechingerreport.org/proof-points...
Big-time college football programs have committed to pay about $200 million this year (and at least $70 million yesterday) to make coaches go away. While the number will go down some as fired coaches find new jobs, it's not a great look as university budgets tighten.
Sources: Kentucky expected to fire Mark Stoops
Kentucky is expected to fire football coach Mark Stoops, sources told ESPN on Sunday, with the process set to formally play out Monday.
www.espn.com
December 1, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Big-time college football programs have committed to pay about $200 million this year (and at least $70 million yesterday) to make coaches go away. While the number will go down some as fired coaches find new jobs, it's not a great look as university budgets tighten.
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
They will say the money comes from donors - and it probably does in total or in part - and that’s probably not money that would have been available for other sources but … the university is undergoing a pretty deep budget cut and paying this guy not to work will not boost faculty and staff morale.
SOURCES: Michigan State is firing head coach Jonathan Smith, @theathletic.com has learned.
He went 9-15 in two seasons, including 1-8 in the Big Ten this year. (ESPN first reported).
MSU players meeting called for 2:45. Smith has a $33 million buyout (with offset).
He went 9-15 in two seasons, including 1-8 in the Big Ten this year. (ESPN first reported).
MSU players meeting called for 2:45. Smith has a $33 million buyout (with offset).
November 30, 2025 at 7:53 PM
They will say the money comes from donors - and it probably does in total or in part - and that’s probably not money that would have been available for other sources but … the university is undergoing a pretty deep budget cut and paying this guy not to work will not boost faculty and staff morale.
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
1/7. In the few years that my university tracked COVID-19 cases, we saw some of the biggest infection spikes after Thanksgiving break (see this article from 2021 for example). Seeing that data in those years made me think about the tradeoffs associated with having...
www.npr.org/sections/cor...
www.npr.org/sections/cor...
Cornell shuts down its Ithaca campus after significant signs of omicron variant found
The campus reported nearly 500 new cases of COVID-19 among the student body. The new omicron variant was detected "in a significant number" of positive tests, the university said.
www.npr.org
November 30, 2025 at 5:27 PM
1/7. In the few years that my university tracked COVID-19 cases, we saw some of the biggest infection spikes after Thanksgiving break (see this article from 2021 for example). Seeing that data in those years made me think about the tradeoffs associated with having...
www.npr.org/sections/cor...
www.npr.org/sections/cor...
I'm making sure the kids get the best of the holiday season. This could have won an Oscar back in 1987.
November 30, 2025 at 4:42 PM
I'm making sure the kids get the best of the holiday season. This could have won an Oscar back in 1987.
The tricky part with college football coach contracts is that teams can on average only win half of their conference games and only one team can win it all. That means that most coaches will be considered failures by their boards and boosters, getting payouts to go away.
Sources: LSU expected to hire Kiffin on Sunday
Sources told ESPN late Saturday that the expectation is LSU, a day after its regular season ended, will hire Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, 50, on Sunday as its new coach and that the deal will cover sev...
www.espn.com
November 30, 2025 at 2:45 PM
The tricky part with college football coach contracts is that teams can on average only win half of their conference games and only one team can win it all. That means that most coaches will be considered failures by their boards and boosters, getting payouts to go away.
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
Tuition prices seem like a topic about which rational discourse is impossible.
A couple of weeks ago NPR did a version of this story, which has not been modified a bit, that was flat bad and misleading. It’s better now but still not perfect.
A couple of weeks ago NPR did a version of this story, which has not been modified a bit, that was flat bad and misleading. It’s better now but still not perfect.
It's no secret that going to college can be very expensive, with tuition costs rising faster than financial aid. But what's causing that price tag to rise so quickly?
College 'sticker prices' have risen dramatically. Here's why
It's no secret that going to college can be very expensive, with tuition costs rising faster than financial aid. But what's causing that price tag to rise so quickly?
n.pr
November 30, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Tuition prices seem like a topic about which rational discourse is impossible.
A couple of weeks ago NPR did a version of this story, which has not been modified a bit, that was flat bad and misleading. It’s better now but still not perfect.
A couple of weeks ago NPR did a version of this story, which has not been modified a bit, that was flat bad and misleading. It’s better now but still not perfect.
I have done work using machine learning. It has required a lot of explanation to journalists about how this particular use case is different that what people think of as AI.
This is a legitimate scientific revolution in meteorology.
Also, to be clear, these models are not the AI LLMs that most people are familiar with. They are machine learning algorithms trained on observations (actually reanalysis).
Also, to be clear, these models are not the AI LLMs that most people are familiar with. They are machine learning algorithms trained on observations (actually reanalysis).
Meteorologists are surprised that the weather model that did the best job forecasting hurricanes this year was a new one, introduced by Google. AI may be the beginning of a new era of forecasting. n.pr/49MFa1M
November 30, 2025 at 1:57 PM
I have done work using machine learning. It has required a lot of explanation to journalists about how this particular use case is different that what people think of as AI.
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
Effects of state funding cuts on program offerings at public universities www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
"public institutions offer fewer programs in the natural sciences, social sciences, and education, but more programs in other professional and vocational fields"
"public institutions offer fewer programs in the natural sciences, social sciences, and education, but more programs in other professional and vocational fields"
Effects of state funding cuts on program offerings at public universities
This paper examines how public four-year institutions adjust their program offerings in different fields in response to changes in state appropriation…
www.sciencedirect.com
November 29, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Effects of state funding cuts on program offerings at public universities www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
"public institutions offer fewer programs in the natural sciences, social sciences, and education, but more programs in other professional and vocational fields"
"public institutions offer fewer programs in the natural sciences, social sciences, and education, but more programs in other professional and vocational fields"
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
Making FAFSA mandatory: an evaluation of Louisiana's financial aid submission policy on college enrollment and pell grant awards www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
"I find positive, significant impacts on the enrollment rate for Black students at large, public four-year universities"
"I find positive, significant impacts on the enrollment rate for Black students at large, public four-year universities"
Making FAFSA mandatory: an evaluation of Louisiana's financial aid submission policy on college enrollment and pell grant awards
Aiming to reduce inequalities between low- and high-income students enrolling in college, Louisiana enacted legislation requiring high school students to file a FAFSA application, or opt-out, prior...
www.tandfonline.com
November 29, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Making FAFSA mandatory: an evaluation of Louisiana's financial aid submission policy on college enrollment and pell grant awards www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
"I find positive, significant impacts on the enrollment rate for Black students at large, public four-year universities"
"I find positive, significant impacts on the enrollment rate for Black students at large, public four-year universities"
It seems like international students from many popular countries just aren't going to be allowed. This will damage a key American export.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
After D.C. National Guard Shooting, Trump Steps Up Immigration Crackdown
The White House is pushing for “reverse migration” and aims to expand restrictions on nations it deems high risk.
www.wsj.com
November 29, 2025 at 1:59 PM
It seems like international students from many popular countries just aren't going to be allowed. This will damage a key American export.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Talk about a holiday weekend news dump. Northwestern would likely rather have their $75 million payment to the Trump administration fly under the radar.
www.northwestern.edu/president/do...
www.northwestern.edu/president/do...
www.northwestern.edu
November 29, 2025 at 12:44 AM
Talk about a holiday weekend news dump. Northwestern would likely rather have their $75 million payment to the Trump administration fly under the radar.
www.northwestern.edu/president/do...
www.northwestern.edu/president/do...
I celebrated Black Friday by jamming two beautiful Arkansas Black apple trees in between the kids in the back of my car. My local nursery ran a sale on all things black, and I also online ordered seeds for next year.
November 28, 2025 at 7:58 PM
I celebrated Black Friday by jamming two beautiful Arkansas Black apple trees in between the kids in the back of my car. My local nursery ran a sale on all things black, and I also online ordered seeds for next year.
Our kitchen is completely gutted for renovations, but I can put together a passable meal with a smoker and toaster oven.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
November 28, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Our kitchen is completely gutted for renovations, but I can put together a passable meal with a smoker and toaster oven.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
NEW from me - NSF cancels grant scheme for social science research.
Seems the NSF quietly archived ALL calls for DDRIG grants in the SBE directorate. This is a massive blow for PhD students wanting to do cutting-edge social science research. 🏺🧪
Seems the NSF quietly archived ALL calls for DDRIG grants in the SBE directorate. This is a massive blow for PhD students wanting to do cutting-edge social science research. 🏺🧪
Today's biggest science news: Doomed comet explodes | Comet 3I/ATLAS course alteration | Dark matter detected?
Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025: Your daily feed of the biggest discoveries and breakthroughs making headlines.
www.livescience.com
November 26, 2025 at 9:01 PM
NEW from me - NSF cancels grant scheme for social science research.
Seems the NSF quietly archived ALL calls for DDRIG grants in the SBE directorate. This is a massive blow for PhD students wanting to do cutting-edge social science research. 🏺🧪
Seems the NSF quietly archived ALL calls for DDRIG grants in the SBE directorate. This is a massive blow for PhD students wanting to do cutting-edge social science research. 🏺🧪
I provided some context for this Politifact piece demonstrating what happens when negotiated rulemaking on so-called "professional" degrees breaks containment in our nerdy bubble and gets out into the general public.
Were nurses ‘demoted’ from professional degrees? Not exactly
Trump’s tax and spending law set loan limits on graduate programs based on whether they are “professional.” The Education Department didn’t categorize nursing graduate programs as “professional,” so t...
www.politifact.com
November 27, 2025 at 10:37 AM
I provided some context for this Politifact piece demonstrating what happens when negotiated rulemaking on so-called "professional" degrees breaks containment in our nerdy bubble and gets out into the general public.
This is a fascinating piece on how Arizona State and Michael Crow have tried to stay in the good graces of the Trump administration.
www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...
www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...
November 26, 2025 at 10:54 PM
This is a fascinating piece on how Arizona State and Michael Crow have tried to stay in the good graces of the Trump administration.
www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...
www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
Can't wait to read this from my friend @katharinemeyer.bsky.social - always an insightful analysis
The “professional” loan limit discourse this past week has been wild.
I wrote up some thoughts on what recent policies and neg-reg actions actually mean and what impacts on graduate studies we should be focusing on:
www.brookings.edu/articles/def...
I wrote up some thoughts on what recent policies and neg-reg actions actually mean and what impacts on graduate studies we should be focusing on:
www.brookings.edu/articles/def...
Defining professional programs: Why evidence and clarity matter in ED’s rulemaking | Brookings
Katharine Meyer discusses recent changes to student loan caps and clarifies misconceptions on the borrowing limits established by OBBBA.
www.brookings.edu
November 26, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Can't wait to read this from my friend @katharinemeyer.bsky.social - always an insightful analysis
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
"I'm very proud of the decisions I'm making and that's why it's getting leaked before a major national holiday"
BREAKING from New York Times: Northwestern is nearing a $75 million deal with the Trump administration to free up federal funding and close out ongoing antisemitism investigations
The find would be the second largest after Columbia's $200m payment www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
The find would be the second largest after Columbia's $200m payment www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
Northwestern University Nears Deal to Resolve Its Conflict With the White House
www.nytimes.com
November 26, 2025 at 8:06 PM
"I'm very proud of the decisions I'm making and that's why it's getting leaked before a major national holiday"
I have a new article out reflecting on everything that has happened financially in 2025 and where we go from here.
Journal version: doi.org/10.1080/0009...
Pre-publication copy: kelchenoneducation.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...
Journal version: doi.org/10.1080/0009...
Pre-publication copy: kelchenoneducation.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...
Understanding and Responding to the Changing Financial Landscape of Higher Education
Published in Change: The Magazine of Higher Learning (Vol. 57, No. 6, 2025)
doi.org
November 26, 2025 at 7:44 PM
I have a new article out reflecting on everything that has happened financially in 2025 and where we go from here.
Journal version: doi.org/10.1080/0009...
Pre-publication copy: kelchenoneducation.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...
Journal version: doi.org/10.1080/0009...
Pre-publication copy: kelchenoneducation.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...
My kids love watching Bluey while I get lunch ready. The only drawback is eight-minute episodes while I take a call from a reporter.
a cartoon dog is standing in a room with the words sneaky sneaky on the bottom
Alt: a cartoon dog is standing in a room with the words sneaky sneaky on the bottom
media.tenor.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:11 PM
My kids love watching Bluey while I get lunch ready. The only drawback is eight-minute episodes while I take a call from a reporter.
Reposted by Robert Kelchen
It appears that a bunch of NCES sites are down with a 503 error this morning.
November 26, 2025 at 11:39 AM
It appears that a bunch of NCES sites are down with a 503 error this morning.
The Secretary of Education just appointed five new members to the powerful National Advisory Committee on Institutional Quality and Integrity (NACIQI)--the organization that approves accreditors. Expect NACIQI to play a major role over the next several years.
www.ed.gov/about/news/p...
www.ed.gov/about/news/p...
November 25, 2025 at 6:17 PM
The Secretary of Education just appointed five new members to the powerful National Advisory Committee on Institutional Quality and Integrity (NACIQI)--the organization that approves accreditors. Expect NACIQI to play a major role over the next several years.
www.ed.gov/about/news/p...
www.ed.gov/about/news/p...
@dubravkaritter.bsky.social, @dougwebberecon.bsky.social, and I have a new Education Next article out that offers a less technical look at our research on predicting college closures using machine learning techniques.
Colleges Are Closing. Who Might Be Next?
How machine learning can fill data gaps and help forecast the future
www.educationnext.org
November 25, 2025 at 10:13 AM
@dubravkaritter.bsky.social, @dougwebberecon.bsky.social, and I have a new Education Next article out that offers a less technical look at our research on predicting college closures using machine learning techniques.