John Cluverius
@johncluverius.bsky.social
Political scientist, professor, pollster, parent, partner. Pro-choice, pro-union, and pro-orca.
“If you fail at something long enough, you become a legend.”
All statements are personal opinions, not reflective of university positions.
“If you fail at something long enough, you become a legend.”
All statements are personal opinions, not reflective of university positions.
Gross neoliberal lech
The emails have Summers reporting to Epstein about his attempts to date a Harvard economics student & to hit on her during a seminar she was giving.
November 16, 2025 at 4:12 AM
Gross neoliberal lech
Reposted by John Cluverius
American politics hasn’t just become “Charlie Brown had hoes”, it is “You’re an asshole if you prove Charlie Brown doesn’t have hoes.”
November 15, 2025 at 7:05 PM
American politics hasn’t just become “Charlie Brown had hoes”, it is “You’re an asshole if you prove Charlie Brown doesn’t have hoes.”
Reading the results in TN-02 is going to be about math versus wrath. Yes, it’s Trump+22, so say, a 7 point R win would be a huge shift, but a D win starts shaking the ground. If Ds want to get defections they need to get congressional Rs to fear voters more than they fear Trump.
November 15, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Reading the results in TN-02 is going to be about math versus wrath. Yes, it’s Trump+22, so say, a 7 point R win would be a huge shift, but a D win starts shaking the ground. If Ds want to get defections they need to get congressional Rs to fear voters more than they fear Trump.
economists in the trees! economists in the trees!
There’s this one postdoc open to “political science or allied disciplines“, implying the existence of “enemy disciplines“.
November 15, 2025 at 2:23 PM
economists in the trees! economists in the trees!
Reposted by John Cluverius
6/🧵 Why does conventional wisdom miss this? We confuse electoral swings with attitude changes. Gen Z shifted 6 points toward Trump in 2024, suddenly pundits say they're "the most conservative generation in 50 years." Only 42% of Gen Z voted. We mistake turnout shifts for ideological transformation.
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
6/🧵 Why does conventional wisdom miss this? We confuse electoral swings with attitude changes. Gen Z shifted 6 points toward Trump in 2024, suddenly pundits say they're "the most conservative generation in 50 years." Only 42% of Gen Z voted. We mistake turnout shifts for ideological transformation.
My former student saved a guy from dying of choking and they honored him at a Celtics game.
Shrewsbury bartender who saved patron's life honored at Celtics game
BOSTON — Justin Goodney, a bartender at the Ground Round in Shrewsbury, was honored during the Boston Celtics versus Washington Wizards home game on Wednesday, November 5.
www.communityadvocate.com
November 15, 2025 at 2:42 AM
My former student saved a guy from dying of choking and they honored him at a Celtics game.
When we asked in October, 80% of American adults strongly or somewhat opposed a pardon for Ghislane Maxwell.
www.uml.edu
November 15, 2025 at 2:12 AM
When we asked in October, 80% of American adults strongly or somewhat opposed a pardon for Ghislane Maxwell.
that's now two Republican states that are refusing to do mid-decade redistricting.
Big news: Indiana Republicans signal they still do not have the votes to re-gerrymander the state, and that the Senate won't convene the Senate after all in December.
Getting 1-2 seats out of Indiana was central to the GOP's redistricting-war math.
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Getting 1-2 seats out of Indiana was central to the GOP's redistricting-war math.
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Indiana redistricting push likely dead despite White House pressure
It’s a massive blow to the White House’s efforts to shore up a Republican House majority next year.
www.politico.com
November 14, 2025 at 9:51 PM
that's now two Republican states that are refusing to do mid-decade redistricting.
Reposted by John Cluverius
“the HHS secretary smokes DMT” barely registers at this point
November 14, 2025 at 5:47 PM
“the HHS secretary smokes DMT” barely registers at this point
you can see this in the polling data. while not a majority position, much more popular than it was 2 years ago.
I’m slowly radicalizing into thinking we need to ban all non in person sports betting
An op-ed from Chris Christie (!!) that says "Regulated betting, when done right, strengthens the integrity of sports."
No discussion of gambling's deleterious effects on people!
No discussion of gambling's deleterious effects on people!
November 14, 2025 at 4:13 PM
you can see this in the polling data. while not a majority position, much more popular than it was 2 years ago.
Reposted by John Cluverius
Chris Christie is CEO of a lobbying firm, Christie 55 Solutions, and even though a cursory google search doesn't reveal any gambling industry clients I'd bet my entire net worth (see what I did there?) that the firm represents a sports book and that's why he wrote this op-ed.
I’m slowly radicalizing into thinking we need to ban all non in person sports betting
An op-ed from Chris Christie (!!) that says "Regulated betting, when done right, strengthens the integrity of sports."
No discussion of gambling's deleterious effects on people!
No discussion of gambling's deleterious effects on people!
November 14, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Chris Christie is CEO of a lobbying firm, Christie 55 Solutions, and even though a cursory google search doesn't reveal any gambling industry clients I'd bet my entire net worth (see what I did there?) that the firm represents a sports book and that's why he wrote this op-ed.
Reposted by John Cluverius
This letter from former UVA President Jim Ryan recounting his ouster implies a level of corruption and malfeasance I didn't expect, and Youngkin and Miyares are directly implicated along with several others.
Here is the letter from Jim drive.google.com/file/d/1rgFz...
11.14.25_JER Resignation Facuty.pdf
drive.google.com
November 14, 2025 at 2:30 PM
This letter from former UVA President Jim Ryan recounting his ouster implies a level of corruption and malfeasance I didn't expect, and Youngkin and Miyares are directly implicated along with several others.
Reposted by John Cluverius
As always, nice reporting from the Crimson here
While Summers has broken no laws, and he’s free to correspond with whom he chooses, there’s a lot here to support the idea that he should not be taken as an authoritative spokesman on so many important issues
www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
While Summers has broken no laws, and he’s free to correspond with whom he chooses, there’s a lot here to support the idea that he should not be taken as an authoritative spokesman on so many important issues
www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
Harvard Faculty Disturbed by Revelations of Summers’ ‘Cozy Friendship’ With Epstein | News | The Harvard Crimson
Harvard professors responded with outrage to a tranche of emails showing a close yearslong correspondence between former Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers and sex offender Jeffrey E. Epstein, reop...
www.thecrimson.com
November 14, 2025 at 2:12 PM
As always, nice reporting from the Crimson here
While Summers has broken no laws, and he’s free to correspond with whom he chooses, there’s a lot here to support the idea that he should not be taken as an authoritative spokesman on so many important issues
www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
While Summers has broken no laws, and he’s free to correspond with whom he chooses, there’s a lot here to support the idea that he should not be taken as an authoritative spokesman on so many important issues
www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
Do other academics, alleged researchers, just...not do cursory google searches on people who inquire about their work, or want to collaborate in some way, or want to give you money?
Jeffrey Epstein E-mails Reveal Ties to Prominent Scientists
Around 20,000 pages of newly released e-mails and other documents from convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein have cast new light on his deep involvement with prominent scientists and scholars. Epste...
www.yahoo.com
November 14, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Do other academics, alleged researchers, just...not do cursory google searches on people who inquire about their work, or want to collaborate in some way, or want to give you money?
Reposted by John Cluverius
"the wealthy and powerful appear not as master operators but as bumbling sycophants, eager to cozy up to influence no matter how villainous or depraved"
PS read those emails and tell me you would pay that person hundreds of millions of dollars for investment advice
PS read those emails and tell me you would pay that person hundreds of millions of dollars for investment advice
Importance: High
subj: An article for U (gift link)
i wrote ,,,,,, about jeff epstein. s emails.
www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...
subj: An article for U (gift link)
i wrote ,,,,,, about jeff epstein. s emails.
www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...
When QAnon Meets Veep
The dumb, abhorrent truth at the heart of the Epstein scandal
www.theatlantic.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:20 AM
"the wealthy and powerful appear not as master operators but as bumbling sycophants, eager to cozy up to influence no matter how villainous or depraved"
PS read those emails and tell me you would pay that person hundreds of millions of dollars for investment advice
PS read those emails and tell me you would pay that person hundreds of millions of dollars for investment advice
Reposted by John Cluverius
Looking also at all you scientists who took his money after his initial conviction.
www.buzzfeednews.com/article/pete...
www.buzzfeednews.com/article/pete...
November 14, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Looking also at all you scientists who took his money after his initial conviction.
www.buzzfeednews.com/article/pete...
www.buzzfeednews.com/article/pete...
Imagine a world where he doesn’t do the tariffs. Does Spanberger win by 5? 8? Does Sherrill put up 5 or just barely squeak by?
November 14, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Imagine a world where he doesn’t do the tariffs. Does Spanberger win by 5? 8? Does Sherrill put up 5 or just barely squeak by?
The timing on removing Andrew’s titles and relocating him to private property seems sus as hell now.
November 13, 2025 at 9:44 PM
The timing on removing Andrew’s titles and relocating him to private property seems sus as hell now.
this needs a geocoded filter on it, if you know your girl scout cookies.
188. SSRS, 2019: "What is your favorite type of Girl Scout cookie?"
November 13, 2025 at 9:00 PM
this needs a geocoded filter on it, if you know your girl scout cookies.
Democrats tried "prices aren't higher" in 2024 and it didn't work. People have been laser focused on costs for *years.*
November 13, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Democrats tried "prices aren't higher" in 2024 and it didn't work. People have been laser focused on costs for *years.*
Reposted by John Cluverius
Is this gonna prompt a zillion think pieces about how our society is failing young women and needs to do better, or nah?
"In 2025, 40% of women aged 15 to 44 say they would move abroad permanently if they had the opportunity. The current figure is four times higher than the 10% who shared this desire in 2014, when it was generally in line with other age and gender groups."
Record Numbers of Younger Women Want to Leave the U.S.
The percentage of younger women in the U.S. who express a desire to migrate permanently has surged in the past decade.
news.gallup.com
November 13, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Is this gonna prompt a zillion think pieces about how our society is failing young women and needs to do better, or nah?
if you have a one-shot poll, which most campaigns work from, you have a snapshot of answers to questions you wrote in a particular mindset in a particular time and place.
if you many several polls, collected over time, you can start to make sense of how the electorate thinks and responds to issues.
if you many several polls, collected over time, you can start to make sense of how the electorate thinks and responds to issues.
really key point. polls, particularly issue polls, are a WILDLY unrealistic way to measure how people actually interact with political messaging these days
November 13, 2025 at 3:58 PM
if you have a one-shot poll, which most campaigns work from, you have a snapshot of answers to questions you wrote in a particular mindset in a particular time and place.
if you many several polls, collected over time, you can start to make sense of how the electorate thinks and responds to issues.
if you many several polls, collected over time, you can start to make sense of how the electorate thinks and responds to issues.
Reposted by John Cluverius
The shift in nonwhite voters last year also spooked Democrats about as much as all seven swing states going to Trump. If the Democratic Party is not a multi-racial coalition that advances their rights, what is it? But overwhelmingly, we see nonwhites moved because of cost of living.
Some Dems and pundits overread the significance of Trump's win. They looked at dissatisfaction with the border and discerned a seismic cultural reaction to immigration levels inside the country. The former was real. The latter is a mirage.
(h/t @gelliottmorris.com)
newrepublic.com/article/2030...
(h/t @gelliottmorris.com)
newrepublic.com/article/2030...
November 13, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The shift in nonwhite voters last year also spooked Democrats about as much as all seven swing states going to Trump. If the Democratic Party is not a multi-racial coalition that advances their rights, what is it? But overwhelmingly, we see nonwhites moved because of cost of living.
Reposted by John Cluverius
Something that’s so striking in these emails is how…unimpressive Epstein is. He comes off as a pompous, sub-literate lech. Yes everyone is so mortifyingly solicitous of him! All fawning and flattery! Why?????
November 13, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Something that’s so striking in these emails is how…unimpressive Epstein is. He comes off as a pompous, sub-literate lech. Yes everyone is so mortifyingly solicitous of him! All fawning and flattery! Why?????
I mean, I don’t know how to assess what’s been released so far. Is today all oversight committee docs?
Still a lot of questions regarding non-Trump figures.
Still a lot of questions regarding non-Trump figures.
November 13, 2025 at 4:17 AM
I mean, I don’t know how to assess what’s been released so far. Is today all oversight committee docs?
Still a lot of questions regarding non-Trump figures.
Still a lot of questions regarding non-Trump figures.