David Nir
@davidnir.com
Publisher, @the-downballot.com. davidnir (at) the-downballot (dot) com
Our site: https://the-downballot.com
Our site: https://the-downballot.com
Pinned
David Nir
@davidnir.com
· Oct 20
Me 'n' @kailigray.bsky.social at No Kings on Oct. 18, 2025. Frogs together strong!
While we were recording the show, @dwbeard.bsky.social & I debated whether to address the TX dissent, which had just dropped. We decided we couldn't, because it would have simply taken way too long to dissect all the lunacy.
But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->
But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->
November 21, 2025 at 1:46 AM
While we were recording the show, @dwbeard.bsky.social & I debated whether to address the TX dissent, which had just dropped. We decided we couldn't, because it would have simply taken way too long to dissect all the lunacy.
But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->
But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->
I still can't wrap my head around Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick seeing that the state of Florida had sent her tiny little company a check for $5 million instead of $50,000 *and* deciding to keep it *and* deciding to use it to wage a third bid for Congress after getting blown out twice before. Just wow.
November 21, 2025 at 12:30 AM
I still can't wrap my head around Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick seeing that the state of Florida had sent her tiny little company a check for $5 million instead of $50,000 *and* deciding to keep it *and* deciding to use it to wage a third bid for Congress after getting blown out twice before. Just wow.
Put another way: How validating does it feel when you see a politician express your feelings exactly the way you would? The answer is "very"!
There is a lot to be gained from building trust in this way.
There is a lot to be gained from building trust in this way.
As a member of The Downballot community put it, a major key to Trump's success was how he closed the gap between the way Republican politicians talked and the way conservative media talked.
A similar gap is opening on the left. Dem pols who grasp this and try to close it will reap rewards.
A similar gap is opening on the left. Dem pols who grasp this and try to close it will reap rewards.
November 21, 2025 at 12:07 AM
Put another way: How validating does it feel when you see a politician express your feelings exactly the way you would? The answer is "very"!
There is a lot to be gained from building trust in this way.
There is a lot to be gained from building trust in this way.
As a member of The Downballot community put it, a major key to Trump's success was how he closed the gap between the way Republican politicians talked and the way conservative media talked.
A similar gap is opening on the left. Dem pols who grasp this and try to close it will reap rewards.
A similar gap is opening on the left. Dem pols who grasp this and try to close it will reap rewards.
November 21, 2025 at 12:05 AM
As a member of The Downballot community put it, a major key to Trump's success was how he closed the gap between the way Republican politicians talked and the way conservative media talked.
A similar gap is opening on the left. Dem pols who grasp this and try to close it will reap rewards.
A similar gap is opening on the left. Dem pols who grasp this and try to close it will reap rewards.
Props to Rep. Nydia Velazquez. This is exactly the right approach from a longtime member of Congress in their 70s. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/n...
November 20, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Props to Rep. Nydia Velazquez. This is exactly the right approach from a longtime member of Congress in their 70s. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/n...
Reposted by David Nir
A Kentuckian wrote to GOP state Rep. TJ Roberts to criticize his bill to force all local law enforcement agencies to enter into 287g agreements with ICE, and he sent her back this video superimposing himself over Trump saying "quiet, quiet piggy." In case you wanted to know reaction to Trump's line
November 20, 2025 at 5:45 PM
A Kentuckian wrote to GOP state Rep. TJ Roberts to criticize his bill to force all local law enforcement agencies to enter into 287g agreements with ICE, and he sent her back this video superimposing himself over Trump saying "quiet, quiet piggy." In case you wanted to know reaction to Trump's line
Reposted by David Nir
Excellent point from Rick. We could (and should) see 2020-style campaigns to urge advance voting.
And what happens when DHS does this around election time next November, just to make everyone think twice about going through the hassle of going to vote?
The message to everyone in 2026 must be: vote early! (whether, if allowed, in person or, if allowed, by mail)
The message to everyone in 2026 must be: vote early! (whether, if allowed, in person or, if allowed, by mail)
DHS takes credit for seemingly less traffic in Charlotte because their masked goons are making people afraid to leave their homes
November 20, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Excellent point from Rick. We could (and should) see 2020-style campaigns to urge advance voting.
The TX dissent is so unhinged it's making me queasy.
It's also wickedly antisemitic, mentioning "Soros" no fewer than 17 times, including gems like:
"Plaintiffs’ top expert Matt Barreto is a Soros operative. His CV confirms it. He expects to receive $2.5 million in his Soros piggybank."
It's also wickedly antisemitic, mentioning "Soros" no fewer than 17 times, including gems like:
"Plaintiffs’ top expert Matt Barreto is a Soros operative. His CV confirms it. He expects to receive $2.5 million in his Soros piggybank."
Order – #1439 in League of United Latin American Citizens v. Abbott (W.D. Tex., 3:21-cv-00259) – CourtListener.com
DISSENT from 1437 Memorandum Opinion and Order Granting Motion for Preliminary Injunction, signed and issued by Judge Jerry E. Smith. (kc) (Entered: 11/19/2025)
www.courtlistener.com
November 19, 2025 at 9:10 PM
The TX dissent is so unhinged it's making me queasy.
It's also wickedly antisemitic, mentioning "Soros" no fewer than 17 times, including gems like:
"Plaintiffs’ top expert Matt Barreto is a Soros operative. His CV confirms it. He expects to receive $2.5 million in his Soros piggybank."
It's also wickedly antisemitic, mentioning "Soros" no fewer than 17 times, including gems like:
"Plaintiffs’ top expert Matt Barreto is a Soros operative. His CV confirms it. He expects to receive $2.5 million in his Soros piggybank."
Quite the kicker:
"The statute of limitations on the charges against Comey expired shortly after the purported indictment was secured. So if the case against Comey is dismissed — or, more precisely, if the case never existed — then the government may not be able to refile charges against him."
"The statute of limitations on the charges against Comey expired shortly after the purported indictment was secured. So if the case against Comey is dismissed — or, more precisely, if the case never existed — then the government may not be able to refile charges against him."
Due to Botched Paperwork, Comey May Never Have Been Properly Indicted talkingpointsmemo.com/news/due-to-...
Due to Botched Paperwork, Comey May Never Have Been Properly Indicted
ALEXANDRIA, VA—In a stunning admission, prosecutors in the James Comey case conceded that...
talkingpointsmemo.com
November 19, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Quite the kicker:
"The statute of limitations on the charges against Comey expired shortly after the purported indictment was secured. So if the case against Comey is dismissed — or, more precisely, if the case never existed — then the government may not be able to refile charges against him."
"The statute of limitations on the charges against Comey expired shortly after the purported indictment was secured. So if the case against Comey is dismissed — or, more precisely, if the case never existed — then the government may not be able to refile charges against him."
Reposted by David Nir
Checking YTD markets:
Glorious Markets of the Republic:
S&P 500 +13%
Russell +5%
Enemies of the State:
Mexico +42%
China +34%
Canada +26%
Perpetual Stores of Value:
Gold +54%
BTC -4%
Doge -52%
Personal Showering of Love and Devotion for Dear Leader:
DJT: -69%
Trump coin: -77%
Melania con: -97%
Glorious Markets of the Republic:
S&P 500 +13%
Russell +5%
Enemies of the State:
Mexico +42%
China +34%
Canada +26%
Perpetual Stores of Value:
Gold +54%
BTC -4%
Doge -52%
Personal Showering of Love and Devotion for Dear Leader:
DJT: -69%
Trump coin: -77%
Melania con: -97%
November 19, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Checking YTD markets:
Glorious Markets of the Republic:
S&P 500 +13%
Russell +5%
Enemies of the State:
Mexico +42%
China +34%
Canada +26%
Perpetual Stores of Value:
Gold +54%
BTC -4%
Doge -52%
Personal Showering of Love and Devotion for Dear Leader:
DJT: -69%
Trump coin: -77%
Melania con: -97%
Glorious Markets of the Republic:
S&P 500 +13%
Russell +5%
Enemies of the State:
Mexico +42%
China +34%
Canada +26%
Perpetual Stores of Value:
Gold +54%
BTC -4%
Doge -52%
Personal Showering of Love and Devotion for Dear Leader:
DJT: -69%
Trump coin: -77%
Melania con: -97%
Reposted by David Nir
Republicans got some sudden and unexpected bad news Tuesday when a three-judge federal court blocked Texas from using its new GOP-drawn congressional districts. Our new Digest examines why a Trump appointee made this momentous ruling and what it does—and doesn't—mean for the redistricting wars.
Morning Digest: Court blocks new Texas map, dealing surprise blow to Republicans
An appeal is already underway, but the GOP's redistricting push could backfire massively
www.the-downballot.com
November 19, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Republicans got some sudden and unexpected bad news Tuesday when a three-judge federal court blocked Texas from using its new GOP-drawn congressional districts. Our new Digest examines why a Trump appointee made this momentous ruling and what it does—and doesn't—mean for the redistricting wars.
This is funny. Gov. Greg Abbott delayed in scheduling the #TX18 special—which is taking place under the old lines—and almost certainly did so to keep a Dem seat vacant.
The court cites that still-ongoing special as proof that reverting to the old lines would not be disruptive. Oops!
The court cites that still-ongoing special as proof that reverting to the old lines would not be disruptive. Oops!
November 18, 2025 at 8:58 PM
This is funny. Gov. Greg Abbott delayed in scheduling the #TX18 special—which is taking place under the old lines—and almost certainly did so to keep a Dem seat vacant.
The court cites that still-ongoing special as proof that reverting to the old lines would not be disruptive. Oops!
The court cites that still-ongoing special as proof that reverting to the old lines would not be disruptive. Oops!
LOL this quote from the ruling:
"It’s challenging to unpack the DOJ Letter because it contains so many factual, legal, and typographical errors."
"It’s challenging to unpack the DOJ Letter because it contains so many factual, legal, and typographical errors."
Whoa: A federal court just barred Texas from using its new congressional map, drawn by the GOP to target Dems.
"Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map."
Court says the old map must be used in 2026. Appeals are certain. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
"Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map."
Court says the old map must be used in 2026. Appeals are certain. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
November 18, 2025 at 8:22 PM
LOL this quote from the ruling:
"It’s challenging to unpack the DOJ Letter because it contains so many factual, legal, and typographical errors."
"It’s challenging to unpack the DOJ Letter because it contains so many factual, legal, and typographical errors."
Reposted by David Nir
NEW: Washington may have folded to Trump, but there is one powerful, underused tool that could stop him: collective state action. By pooling resources, harmonizing policies and coordinating responses, states can help build a future worth fighting for, @gabygoldstein.bsky.social writes.
Collective State Action Can Stop Trump and Protect Democracy
Read more here.
www.democracydocket.com
November 17, 2025 at 8:51 PM
NEW: Washington may have folded to Trump, but there is one powerful, underused tool that could stop him: collective state action. By pooling resources, harmonizing policies and coordinating responses, states can help build a future worth fighting for, @gabygoldstein.bsky.social writes.
Reposted by David Nir
The fact that no one in the room stood up for her says a lot about how we got here bsky.app/profile/pale...
"Quiet! Quiet, Piggy."
November 18, 2025 at 2:55 PM
The fact that no one in the room stood up for her says a lot about how we got here bsky.app/profile/pale...
The "discharge" petition does not discharge any *files*. It "discharges" a bill from its holding pen onto the House floor, requiring that the chamber hold a vote on it.
*That* bill doesn't "discharge" anything either. It just sets up a hypothetical Senate vote on the same bill—that Trump can veto.
*That* bill doesn't "discharge" anything either. It just sets up a hypothetical Senate vote on the same bill—that Trump can veto.
A reminder about the Epstein discharge petition: If it gets 218 signatures in the House, that will force a vote on *legislation* mandating the release of the files.
That legislation is an ordinary bill, which means the Senate would have to pass it and Trump would have to sign it to take effect.
That legislation is an ordinary bill, which means the Senate would have to pass it and Trump would have to sign it to take effect.
November 17, 2025 at 5:29 PM
The "discharge" petition does not discharge any *files*. It "discharges" a bill from its holding pen onto the House floor, requiring that the chamber hold a vote on it.
*That* bill doesn't "discharge" anything either. It just sets up a hypothetical Senate vote on the same bill—that Trump can veto.
*That* bill doesn't "discharge" anything either. It just sets up a hypothetical Senate vote on the same bill—that Trump can veto.
Reposted by David Nir
The reason all the Nuzzi stuff makes me so angry is that I've seen journalists who have worked their asses off for pretty low salaries get laid off for no reason and get pushed out of the industry.
Nuzzi's offense was egregious and banishable, but for some reason got a flowery second chance.
Nuzzi's offense was egregious and banishable, but for some reason got a flowery second chance.
November 17, 2025 at 5:03 PM
The reason all the Nuzzi stuff makes me so angry is that I've seen journalists who have worked their asses off for pretty low salaries get laid off for no reason and get pushed out of the industry.
Nuzzi's offense was egregious and banishable, but for some reason got a flowery second chance.
Nuzzi's offense was egregious and banishable, but for some reason got a flowery second chance.
Reposted by David Nir
Republicans have launched a rescue mission two weeks ahead of the special election for a U.S. House seat Trump carried by 22 points.
Morning Digest: GOP launches special election rescue mission in deep-red district
And Democrats turn up the heat on the Epstein files
www.the-downballot.com
November 17, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Republicans have launched a rescue mission two weeks ahead of the special election for a U.S. House seat Trump carried by 22 points.
Reposted by David Nir
1/2 One of the big problems for the always-punching-left Democratic consultants is that they are waging ideological battles in public that actually _reinforce_ the left-wing image of the party that they are trying to fight. That is a risk they have decided
substack.com/@lakshyajain...
substack.com/@lakshyajain...
November 13, 2025 at 6:26 PM
1/2 One of the big problems for the always-punching-left Democratic consultants is that they are waging ideological battles in public that actually _reinforce_ the left-wing image of the party that they are trying to fight. That is a risk they have decided
substack.com/@lakshyajain...
substack.com/@lakshyajain...
I mean, this is *exactly* what Republicans did when Trump nominated Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. The filibuster was still in effect for SCOTUS nominees, Dems said they'd filibuster, and lo and behold ... the GOP just nuked the filibuster!
They'll do it again whenever it suits them.
They'll do it again whenever it suits them.
How does this ding-dong not realize that if Republicans wake up one day and want to pass all of these things, they can just eliminate the filibuster then?
Straightforward confirmation from Angus King that the gang of eight made the deal out of earnest concern for the filibuster. www.pressherald.com/2025/11/13/w...
November 13, 2025 at 9:34 PM
I mean, this is *exactly* what Republicans did when Trump nominated Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. The filibuster was still in effect for SCOTUS nominees, Dems said they'd filibuster, and lo and behold ... the GOP just nuked the filibuster!
They'll do it again whenever it suits them.
They'll do it again whenever it suits them.
How does this ding-dong not realize that if Republicans wake up one day and want to pass all of these things, they can just eliminate the filibuster then?
Straightforward confirmation from Angus King that the gang of eight made the deal out of earnest concern for the filibuster. www.pressherald.com/2025/11/13/w...
November 13, 2025 at 9:14 PM
How does this ding-dong not realize that if Republicans wake up one day and want to pass all of these things, they can just eliminate the filibuster then?
Filing a motion to intervene in an *existing* lawsuit is *not* the same as filing a new lawsuit. @democracydocket.com's headline gets it right. This one from AP is misleading.
November 13, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Filing a motion to intervene in an *existing* lawsuit is *not* the same as filing a new lawsuit. @democracydocket.com's headline gets it right. This one from AP is misleading.
Reposted by David Nir
We've got a jam-packed podcast this week!
First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue.
Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary.
Listen here!
First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue.
Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary.
Listen here!
The inside scoop on The Downballot's new polling
Listen now | And a deep dive into New Hampshire politics with Chris Galdieri
www.the-downballot.com
November 13, 2025 at 4:48 PM
We've got a jam-packed podcast this week!
First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue.
Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary.
Listen here!
First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue.
Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary.
Listen here!