Christopher Berry
@cjpberry.bsky.social
Perpetually mystified | Views are mine.
Reposted by Christopher Berry
Hi, my name's Tim, and I've used Bayesian structural time series while also being befuddled as to fundamentals of Bayesian methods overall. I had a prior that the latest episode of the Analytics Power Hour podcast would clear things up a bit for me, and it did! analyticshour.io/2025/11/25/2...
#285: Our Prior Is That Many Analysts Are Confounded by Bayesian Statistics
Before you listen to this episode, can you quantify how useful you expect it to be? That’s a prior! And "priors" is a word that gets used a lot in this discussion with Michael Kaminsky as we try to de...
analyticshour.io
November 25, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Hi, my name's Tim, and I've used Bayesian structural time series while also being befuddled as to fundamentals of Bayesian methods overall. I had a prior that the latest episode of the Analytics Power Hour podcast would clear things up a bit for me, and it did! analyticshour.io/2025/11/25/2...
The upsignal/downsignal components in the emails are interesting. Bias comfirming that many never leave prep school.
We’re going to get some great science out of the dataset. And that’ll be a small amount of justice. Maybe.
We’re going to get some great science out of the dataset. And that’ll be a small amount of justice. Maybe.
An excellent and tragically necessary piece from Anand Giridharadas (@anandwrites.bsky.social) for the NYT (gift-link): www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...
Opinion | How the Elite Behave When No One Is Watching: Inside the Epstein Emails
www.nytimes.com
November 23, 2025 at 1:27 PM
The upsignal/downsignal components in the emails are interesting. Bias comfirming that many never leave prep school.
We’re going to get some great science out of the dataset. And that’ll be a small amount of justice. Maybe.
We’re going to get some great science out of the dataset. And that’ll be a small amount of justice. Maybe.
I look forward to the meeting to discuss the venue for the meeting to consider to caterer for the meeting to discuss the composition of the steering committee for the voluntary agreement to begin discussions on a roadmap to an eventual phase-out of fossil fuels.
Countries meeting in Brazil for 2 weeks could manage only a voluntary agreement to begin discussions on a roadmap to an eventual phase-out of fossil fuels, & they achieved this incremental progress in the face of implacable opposition from oil-producing countries.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
End of fossil fuel era inches closer as Cop30 deal agreed after bitter standoff
Wealthy countries agree to triple funds for countries to tackle climate impacts, but deforestation and critical minerals blocked from final deal
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 6:01 PM
I look forward to the meeting to discuss the venue for the meeting to consider to caterer for the meeting to discuss the composition of the steering committee for the voluntary agreement to begin discussions on a roadmap to an eventual phase-out of fossil fuels.
Just finished Michael Lewis’ “The Fifth Risk” … What a treat. Just a gem of a book. Love it. I’m gushing.
There’s a real craft for storytelling. I positively love the DOE stories. Just great stuff.
Most of my friends will love the book.
There’s a real craft for storytelling. I positively love the DOE stories. Just great stuff.
Most of my friends will love the book.
November 21, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Just finished Michael Lewis’ “The Fifth Risk” … What a treat. Just a gem of a book. Love it. I’m gushing.
There’s a real craft for storytelling. I positively love the DOE stories. Just great stuff.
Most of my friends will love the book.
There’s a real craft for storytelling. I positively love the DOE stories. Just great stuff.
Most of my friends will love the book.
The trivialization of what happened at The Pulse Nightclub is rather disappointing. Yet ultimately unsurprising.
Kash Patel's personal firing of the Pride flag-displaying employee was always absurd and unconstitutional, so I'm glad David Maltinsky is suing, but, wait.
It was a flag FLOWN BY THE FBI that was given to him BY THE FBI?! Come on.
Complaint: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
It was a flag FLOWN BY THE FBI that was given to him BY THE FBI?! Come on.
Complaint: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
![On October 1, 2025, after successfully completing 16 weeks of the FBI Academy's
19-week training program, Maltinsky was handed a letter terminating his employment with the
FBI. The letter was signed by Defendant Patel ("Patel"). In the letter, Patel wrote that he had
"determined that [Maltinsky] exercised poor judgment with an inappropriate display of political signage in [his] work area during [his] previous assignment at the Los Angeles Field Office." In short, Patel fired Maltinsky for displaying a pride flag at his workstation that had been flown by the FBI at the LAFO and then given by the FBI to Maltinsky.
The Defendants' discrimination against Maltinsky for engaging in protected speech
was a clear and brazen violation of federal law and the Constitution.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:36eqtmzysqf7wsslczw4uxcd/bafkreid5rog4gjpv3qeneunmoyqxoesnuxac2srp3u6ppnjdxphfv7jcoe@jpeg)
November 20, 2025 at 10:42 PM
The trivialization of what happened at The Pulse Nightclub is rather disappointing. Yet ultimately unsurprising.
Matthew Desmond’s “Poverty By America” is factual, for readers, and explains the design of American poverty. It makes good arguments.
For Canadians I’d rec Elsbeth Heaman’s “Tax Order and Good Government” for the roots of the Canadian design.
For Canadians I’d rec Elsbeth Heaman’s “Tax Order and Good Government” for the roots of the Canadian design.
November 20, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Matthew Desmond’s “Poverty By America” is factual, for readers, and explains the design of American poverty. It makes good arguments.
For Canadians I’d rec Elsbeth Heaman’s “Tax Order and Good Government” for the roots of the Canadian design.
For Canadians I’d rec Elsbeth Heaman’s “Tax Order and Good Government” for the roots of the Canadian design.
Tonight at Weird Wednesday at Trajectory Labs with Jason Yung. Luddites! Sherwood Forresty.
November 19, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Tonight at Weird Wednesday at Trajectory Labs with Jason Yung. Luddites! Sherwood Forresty.
Did an old style CBC user interview on Queen Street last night. Once a public broadcaster, always. And met the rare causal-factual/entertainment-escape segment. They’re around 1:8, 1:10 in Canada, and a real pleasure to talk to.
They’re terribly underserved by both the privates and the publics.
They’re terribly underserved by both the privates and the publics.
November 19, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Did an old style CBC user interview on Queen Street last night. Once a public broadcaster, always. And met the rare causal-factual/entertainment-escape segment. They’re around 1:8, 1:10 in Canada, and a real pleasure to talk to.
They’re terribly underserved by both the privates and the publics.
They’re terribly underserved by both the privates and the publics.
Reposted by Christopher Berry
"We have a 2000s housing bubble level of financial engineering on top of a 1920s level of private unregulated lending on top of something bigger than a 1990s internet (or 1870s railroad) level of technology and infrastructure build-out." prospect.org/2025/11/19/a...
The AI Bubble Is Bigger Than You Think - The American Prospect
It’s not just OpenAI that looks overhyped. There’s a whole mountain of sketchy financial engineering underneath.
prospect.org
November 19, 2025 at 5:03 PM
"We have a 2000s housing bubble level of financial engineering on top of a 1920s level of private unregulated lending on top of something bigger than a 1990s internet (or 1870s railroad) level of technology and infrastructure build-out." prospect.org/2025/11/19/a...
The danger here is not only data misuse but the erosion of trust. When every digital interaction feels like surveillance, the risk is dulling the authenticity that makes such tools valuable.”
One reason LLMs are so popular is the promise of seemingly private, judgment-free interaction. But once users internalize that their data is being recorded, studied, or reused, it could lead to a shift in how people think, speak, and even feel when using AI, says computer scientist Koustuv Saha.
The Risks of the 'Observer Effect' from Being Watched by AI | TechPolicy.Press
Dr. Koustuv Saha says if users begin to feel their privacy is compromised, they may stop using AI in the very ways that make it useful.
www.techpolicy.press
November 19, 2025 at 1:52 PM
The danger here is not only data misuse but the erosion of trust. When every digital interaction feels like surveillance, the risk is dulling the authenticity that makes such tools valuable.”
Trajectory Labs has been hosting this book chat on Monday evenings. Great conversations - thanks Georgia for facilitating!
November 18, 2025 at 12:33 AM
Trajectory Labs has been hosting this book chat on Monday evenings. Great conversations - thanks Georgia for facilitating!
Reposted by Christopher Berry
Great perspective from #CDSM2025: causal inference is 'what-if' analysis. You don’t have to get everything perfect—or how dare you use the c-word. What matters is laying out your assumptions transparently and showing us what happens when they're violated.
November 15, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Great perspective from #CDSM2025: causal inference is 'what-if' analysis. You don’t have to get everything perfect—or how dare you use the c-word. What matters is laying out your assumptions transparently and showing us what happens when they're violated.
My clothes are still soaked from Milton Mayer’s “They Thought They Were Free”. That bit where the Americans believed they were causing the Germans to accept responsibility for the Nazis at Nuremberg, and that 9 in 10 Nazis were completely devoid of shame.
Sticky. Sticky stuff.
Sticky. Sticky stuff.
November 15, 2025 at 4:26 PM
My clothes are still soaked from Milton Mayer’s “They Thought They Were Free”. That bit where the Americans believed they were causing the Germans to accept responsibility for the Nazis at Nuremberg, and that 9 in 10 Nazis were completely devoid of shame.
Sticky. Sticky stuff.
Sticky. Sticky stuff.
Reposted by Christopher Berry
Over on the Gelman blog, there's a post about this histogram of z-scores in published papers. I'm always baffled by the discourse around it. Why is this plot a symptom of a problem? Under what model would we expect this to be a bell curve?
November 15, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Over on the Gelman blog, there's a post about this histogram of z-scores in published papers. I'm always baffled by the discourse around it. Why is this plot a symptom of a problem? Under what model would we expect this to be a bell curve?
Finished Gati’s “Zbig”. Got him in a Grand-Grand Strategy way. I’ve never experienced Bloodlands, I don’t have his intuition, just the fuzzzziest Anglo-Acadian intuition about the value sets that make institutions, reinforce, combine to cause power. Hinterlandish.
Good read. A few bangers.
Good read. A few bangers.
November 15, 2025 at 2:40 AM
Finished Gati’s “Zbig”. Got him in a Grand-Grand Strategy way. I’ve never experienced Bloodlands, I don’t have his intuition, just the fuzzzziest Anglo-Acadian intuition about the value sets that make institutions, reinforce, combine to cause power. Hinterlandish.
Good read. A few bangers.
Good read. A few bangers.
Reposted by Christopher Berry
@alphaxiv.org released quickarXiv
Swap arxiv → quickarxiv on any paper URL to get an instant blog with figures, insights, and explanations.
Swap arxiv → quickarxiv on any paper URL to get an instant blog with figures, insights, and explanations.
November 14, 2025 at 11:52 PM
@alphaxiv.org released quickarXiv
Swap arxiv → quickarxiv on any paper URL to get an instant blog with figures, insights, and explanations.
Swap arxiv → quickarxiv on any paper URL to get an instant blog with figures, insights, and explanations.
Reposted by Christopher Berry
According to signaling theory, some signals must be costly just to be costly—that's how you get a separating equilibrium. Think peacocks and their oversized feathers. So even if AI removes one costly signal, it doesn't mean we should stop technological progress — we'll just find new ones.
Is AI making job recruitment less meritocratic? We're getting some v interesting research studies on this question now, and the news is... not good. @jburnmurdoch.ft.com & I dive in, in the latest edition of our newsletter The AI Shift www.ft.com/content/e5b7...
November 14, 2025 at 11:52 AM
According to signaling theory, some signals must be costly just to be costly—that's how you get a separating equilibrium. Think peacocks and their oversized feathers. So even if AI removes one costly signal, it doesn't mean we should stop technological progress — we'll just find new ones.
The twist:
Colleague is a Turniptologist
Colleague is a Turniptologist
November 14, 2025 at 1:05 AM
The twist:
Colleague is a Turniptologist
Colleague is a Turniptologist
“Moreover, we present a dataset comprising 25,368 samples (CausalDR), where each sample includes an input question, explicit causal DAG, graph-based reasoning trace, and validated answer.”
Researchers have developed CDCR-SFT, a novel method that enhances causal reasoning in language models, achieving an impressive 95.33% accuracy while significantly reducing logical hallucinations. https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.12495
Mitigating Hallucinations in Large Language Models via Causal Reasoning
ArXiv link for Mitigating Hallucinations in Large Language Models via Causal Reasoning
arxiv.org
November 14, 2025 at 1:02 AM
“Moreover, we present a dataset comprising 25,368 samples (CausalDR), where each sample includes an input question, explicit causal DAG, graph-based reasoning trace, and validated answer.”
“That said, eroding social cohesion, increasing polarization, and significant global events provide fertile ground for radicalization and many who turn to violence radicalize exclusively online…”
November 13, 2025 at 9:56 PM
“That said, eroding social cohesion, increasing polarization, and significant global events provide fertile ground for radicalization and many who turn to violence radicalize exclusively online…”
If you just woke up in ET, there’s 80 minutes, 12 flash talks coming up, then keynote, then the last sessions with industry. It’s better than your standing Thursday AM meetings.
causalscience.org
#CDSM25
causalscience.org
#CDSM25
Causal Data Science Meeting - Home
Fostering a dialogue between industry and academia on causal data science.
causalscience.org
November 13, 2025 at 1:26 PM
If you just woke up in ET, there’s 80 minutes, 12 flash talks coming up, then keynote, then the last sessions with industry. It’s better than your standing Thursday AM meetings.
causalscience.org
#CDSM25
causalscience.org
#CDSM25
Waking up to Marco Barbero Mot and Danilo Messinese’s preso on unsupervised discovery of causal mechanisms. Pleasantly surprised that they used clickstream data! #cdsm25
November 13, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Waking up to Marco Barbero Mot and Danilo Messinese’s preso on unsupervised discovery of causal mechanisms. Pleasantly surprised that they used clickstream data! #cdsm25
Day 2 of #CDSM25 kicks off at early ET / Centre Of The Universe Time. I’m aiming to be awake by “Unsupervised Discovery of Causal Mechanisms for Management Research” Marco Barbero Mot (Vanderbilt University) , Danilo Messinese (IE University)
www.causalscience.org
www.causalscience.org
Causal Data Science Meeting - Home
Fostering a dialogue between industry and academia on causal data science.
www.causalscience.org
November 12, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Day 2 of #CDSM25 kicks off at early ET / Centre Of The Universe Time. I’m aiming to be awake by “Unsupervised Discovery of Causal Mechanisms for Management Research” Marco Barbero Mot (Vanderbilt University) , Danilo Messinese (IE University)
www.causalscience.org
www.causalscience.org
Doing night three of The Hinton Lectures (TM). Likely with a lot of the usual #AIGS suspects.
After having been spoiled all day by the best intermission music in science (feat @p-hunermund.com at #CDSM25), I’m somewhat assaulted by the light Canadian hotel jazz for the pre-show.
After having been spoiled all day by the best intermission music in science (feat @p-hunermund.com at #CDSM25), I’m somewhat assaulted by the light Canadian hotel jazz for the pre-show.
November 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Doing night three of The Hinton Lectures (TM). Likely with a lot of the usual #AIGS suspects.
After having been spoiled all day by the best intermission music in science (feat @p-hunermund.com at #CDSM25), I’m somewhat assaulted by the light Canadian hotel jazz for the pre-show.
After having been spoiled all day by the best intermission music in science (feat @p-hunermund.com at #CDSM25), I’m somewhat assaulted by the light Canadian hotel jazz for the pre-show.
Reposted by Christopher Berry
An analysis of 47,000 publicly shared ChatGPT conversations: ~10% related to emotional or mental health, ChatGPT exhibits a "default to yes" behavior, and more (Washington Post)
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
November 12, 2025 at 12:36 PM
An analysis of 47,000 publicly shared ChatGPT conversations: ~10% related to emotional or mental health, ChatGPT exhibits a "default to yes" behavior, and more (Washington Post)
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink
Main Link | Techmeme Permalink