@causalwizard.bsky.social
Reposted
Long H Dang, David Rawlinson: HRM-Agent: Training a recurrent reasoning model in dynamic environments using reinforcement learning https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.22832 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.22832 https://arxiv.org/html/2510.22832
October 28, 2025 at 6:29 AM
Long H Dang, David Rawlinson: HRM-Agent: Training a recurrent reasoning model in dynamic environments using reinforcement learning https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.22832 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.22832 https://arxiv.org/html/2510.22832
geekway.substack.com/p/ai-revolut... #causalsky Blog post on using causal inference to understand the ROI of generative AI
AI Revolution, Meet the Credibility Revolution
Introducing Workhelix
geekway.substack.com
April 2, 2025 at 1:38 AM
geekway.substack.com/p/ai-revolut... #causalsky Blog post on using causal inference to understand the ROI of generative AI
Reposted
Looking forward to seeing you at Spatiotemporal Causal Analysis (#STCausal2025), stcausal2025.spatial-causal.org with @grantdmckenzie.bsky.social and Cecile de Bezenac!
March 10, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Looking forward to seeing you at Spatiotemporal Causal Analysis (#STCausal2025), stcausal2025.spatial-causal.org with @grantdmckenzie.bsky.social and Cecile de Bezenac!
Reposted
As reported, the entire staff of 538 was laid off this morning. This is a severe blow to political data journalism, and I feel for my colleagues. Readers note: As we were instructed not to publish any new content, all planned updates to polls data and averages are canceled indefinitely. Huge loss :(
March 5, 2025 at 4:28 PM
As reported, the entire staff of 538 was laid off this morning. This is a severe blow to political data journalism, and I feel for my colleagues. Readers note: As we were instructed not to publish any new content, all planned updates to polls data and averages are canceled indefinitely. Huge loss :(
Reposted
Dave Lagnado is looking for a post doc to work on causal inference! The BR-UK team is doing some very cool stuff, so if you're currently looking for a job, check this out: www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
March 5, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Dave Lagnado is looking for a post doc to work on causal inference! The BR-UK team is doing some very cool stuff, so if you're currently looking for a job, check this out: www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
Reposted
This is a brilliantly clear thread from Julia about "why causal inference from observational data is difficult". This, combined with my ongoing re-read of The Book of Why, is finally building an intuition about causality into my feeble human brain
It doesn’t feel good to criticize other’s work: but this is how science advances. In Nature today we respond to a high-profile paper (by Jedediah Brodie & colleagues) about the impact of protected areas on wildlife in southeast Asia.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
February 26, 2025 at 6:18 PM
This is a brilliantly clear thread from Julia about "why causal inference from observational data is difficult". This, combined with my ongoing re-read of The Book of Why, is finally building an intuition about causality into my feeble human brain
Reposted
Is this is fabled Kebab Collider that I mention in some of my lectures? Does look like filtering out of [far+bad] restaurants. Given spatial confounding, stronger pattern than I would have expected. Wonder what a simulation on same urban network would look like. ht @erikwestlund.bsky.social
February 25, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Is this is fabled Kebab Collider that I mention in some of my lectures? Does look like filtering out of [far+bad] restaurants. Given spatial confounding, stronger pattern than I would have expected. Wonder what a simulation on same urban network would look like. ht @erikwestlund.bsky.social
Reposted
"In short, QCA often finds complexity where none exists."
This is a great new ETP editorial by my coauthor Mikko Rönkkö, Markku Maula, and Karl Wennberg, illustrating the massive false positives problem in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). doi.org/10.1177/1042...
This is a great new ETP editorial by my coauthor Mikko Rönkkö, Markku Maula, and Karl Wennberg, illustrating the massive false positives problem in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). doi.org/10.1177/1042...
February 10, 2025 at 8:30 AM
"In short, QCA often finds complexity where none exists."
This is a great new ETP editorial by my coauthor Mikko Rönkkö, Markku Maula, and Karl Wennberg, illustrating the massive false positives problem in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). doi.org/10.1177/1042...
This is a great new ETP editorial by my coauthor Mikko Rönkkö, Markku Maula, and Karl Wennberg, illustrating the massive false positives problem in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). doi.org/10.1177/1042...
Reposted
New blog up: solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-02...
This time I dip my toes into causal inference for quasi-experiments using matching methods, and my use case has missing data complications. Many thanks to @dingdingpeng.the100.ci and
@noahgreifer.bsky.social
for their peer review! #RStats
This time I dip my toes into causal inference for quasi-experiments using matching methods, and my use case has missing data complications. Many thanks to @dingdingpeng.the100.ci and
@noahgreifer.bsky.social
for their peer review! #RStats
Matching, missing data, a quasi-experiment, and causal inference--Oh my! | A. Solomon Kurz
I'm finally dipping my does into causal inference for quasi-experiments, and my first use case has missing data. In this post we practice propensity score matching with multiply-imputed data sets, and...
solomonkurz.netlify.app
February 4, 2025 at 4:36 PM
New blog up: solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-02...
This time I dip my toes into causal inference for quasi-experiments using matching methods, and my use case has missing data complications. Many thanks to @dingdingpeng.the100.ci and
@noahgreifer.bsky.social
for their peer review! #RStats
This time I dip my toes into causal inference for quasi-experiments using matching methods, and my use case has missing data complications. Many thanks to @dingdingpeng.the100.ci and
@noahgreifer.bsky.social
for their peer review! #RStats
Reposted
Check out my talk: Causal Discovery in Python www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2lL...
"Causal Discovery in Python" - Lizzie Silver (Pycon AU 2024)
YouTube video by PyCon AU
www.youtube.com
December 3, 2024 at 10:29 PM
Check out my talk: Causal Discovery in Python www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2lL...
Reposted
@dagophile.bsky.social drops some powerful bombs in this episode.
One of the most important voices at the intersection of causality, philosophy and dynamical systems.
#CausalSky
One of the most important voices at the intersection of causality, philosophy and dynamical systems.
#CausalSky
Thanks for reading. If you're interested in my own interests in the development of causal inference check out this interview youtu.be/UQ8j-DEkB98?... (and @alxndrmlk.bsky.social's podcast more generally)
Also check out this recent paper on discrimination: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Also check out this recent paper on discrimination: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Naftali Weinberger On Causal AI: Making Sense Of Dynamical Systems Ep 5 | CausalBanditsPodcast.com
YouTube video by Causal Python with Alex Molak
youtu.be
December 1, 2024 at 5:43 PM
@dagophile.bsky.social drops some powerful bombs in this episode.
One of the most important voices at the intersection of causality, philosophy and dynamical systems.
#CausalSky
One of the most important voices at the intersection of causality, philosophy and dynamical systems.
#CausalSky
Reposted
Every time someone makes a causal claim based on a single plot, a kitten dies
.or "The Truth is Simple"
The complexity of the description of a dog resting in a position that isn't clearly captured by common-sense terms forces us to use more words to accurately convey the scene
1/ 👇🏼
#CausalSky
.or "The Truth is Simple"
The complexity of the description of a dog resting in a position that isn't clearly captured by common-sense terms forces us to use more words to accurately convey the scene
1/ 👇🏼
#CausalSky
November 29, 2024 at 9:29 AM
Every time someone makes a causal claim based on a single plot, a kitten dies
.or "The Truth is Simple"
The complexity of the description of a dog resting in a position that isn't clearly captured by common-sense terms forces us to use more words to accurately convey the scene
1/ 👇🏼
#CausalSky
.or "The Truth is Simple"
The complexity of the description of a dog resting in a position that isn't clearly captured by common-sense terms forces us to use more words to accurately convey the scene
1/ 👇🏼
#CausalSky
Reposted
DEADLINE EXTENDED🚨 Revolutionize #healthcare with data, causal inference, and machine learning! Join the Causal Risk Prediction in Medicine Datathon at the I2DB Symposium on Feb. 12, 2025. Register your team by Dec. 13.
Learn more ➡️ i2db.wustl.edu/calendar_eve...
#WashUMed #Datathon #RegisterToday
Learn more ➡️ i2db.wustl.edu/calendar_eve...
#WashUMed #Datathon #RegisterToday
November 27, 2024 at 10:01 PM
DEADLINE EXTENDED🚨 Revolutionize #healthcare with data, causal inference, and machine learning! Join the Causal Risk Prediction in Medicine Datathon at the I2DB Symposium on Feb. 12, 2025. Register your team by Dec. 13.
Learn more ➡️ i2db.wustl.edu/calendar_eve...
#WashUMed #Datathon #RegisterToday
Learn more ➡️ i2db.wustl.edu/calendar_eve...
#WashUMed #Datathon #RegisterToday
Reposted
Reposted
Sharpening causal reasoning in applied ethnographic research
doi.org/10.1080/0018...
Figure 1. A Stepwise Illustration of Ethnographic Research Conceptualization and Design to Strengthen Causal Inference.
doi.org/10.1080/0018...
Figure 1. A Stepwise Illustration of Ethnographic Research Conceptualization and Design to Strengthen Causal Inference.
November 25, 2024 at 3:27 PM
Sharpening causal reasoning in applied ethnographic research
doi.org/10.1080/0018...
Figure 1. A Stepwise Illustration of Ethnographic Research Conceptualization and Design to Strengthen Causal Inference.
doi.org/10.1080/0018...
Figure 1. A Stepwise Illustration of Ethnographic Research Conceptualization and Design to Strengthen Causal Inference.
Reposted
What's the difference between explainability and interpretability? Does the machine learning community have an agreed-upon definition?
No.
There's a great overview, which is from this paper: arxiv.org/abs/2211.08943
My take: I prefer interpretability since the term explainability is too strong.
No.
There's a great overview, which is from this paper: arxiv.org/abs/2211.08943
My take: I prefer interpretability since the term explainability is too strong.
November 26, 2024 at 3:41 PM
What's the difference between explainability and interpretability? Does the machine learning community have an agreed-upon definition?
No.
There's a great overview, which is from this paper: arxiv.org/abs/2211.08943
My take: I prefer interpretability since the term explainability is too strong.
No.
There's a great overview, which is from this paper: arxiv.org/abs/2211.08943
My take: I prefer interpretability since the term explainability is too strong.
Reposted
Even as an interpretable ML researcher, I wasn't sure what to make of Mechanistic Interpretability, which seemed to come out of nowhere not too long ago.
But then I found the paper "Mechanistic?" by
@nsaphra.bsky.social and @sarah-nlp.bsky.social, which clarified things.
But then I found the paper "Mechanistic?" by
@nsaphra.bsky.social and @sarah-nlp.bsky.social, which clarified things.
November 20, 2024 at 8:00 AM
Even as an interpretable ML researcher, I wasn't sure what to make of Mechanistic Interpretability, which seemed to come out of nowhere not too long ago.
But then I found the paper "Mechanistic?" by
@nsaphra.bsky.social and @sarah-nlp.bsky.social, which clarified things.
But then I found the paper "Mechanistic?" by
@nsaphra.bsky.social and @sarah-nlp.bsky.social, which clarified things.
Reposted
Excited to talk about Causal Discovery in Python this Friday! 2024.pycon.org.au/program/ACKK...
Causal Discovery in Python—PyCon AU 2024
2024.pycon.org.au
November 18, 2024 at 11:36 AM
Excited to talk about Causal Discovery in Python this Friday! 2024.pycon.org.au/program/ACKK...
Reposted
What if we could discover the true causal structure from observational data?
Too good to be true?
1/n 👇🏼
#causality #CausalSky #causaldiscovery #machinelearning
Too good to be true?
1/n 👇🏼
#causality #CausalSky #causaldiscovery #machinelearning
December 20, 2023 at 10:50 AM
What if we could discover the true causal structure from observational data?
Too good to be true?
1/n 👇🏼
#causality #CausalSky #causaldiscovery #machinelearning
Too good to be true?
1/n 👇🏼
#causality #CausalSky #causaldiscovery #machinelearning
Found this article from 2021 on the "Use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to identify confounders in applied health research: review and recommendations". It describes the effectiveness of SMEs using DAGs to elicit causal diagrams: academic.oup.com/ije/article/...
academic.oup.com
November 14, 2024 at 8:27 AM
Found this article from 2021 on the "Use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to identify confounders in applied health research: review and recommendations". It describes the effectiveness of SMEs using DAGs to elicit causal diagrams: academic.oup.com/ije/article/...
Introductory post! We are causalwizard.app , a website that helps researchers learn about and adopt Causal Inference. The app has a database of about 100 practical causality articles and includes tools from DoWhy, EconML and StatsModels.
#CausalSky #EpiSky #MachineLearning #DataScience #Statistics
#CausalSky #EpiSky #MachineLearning #DataScience #Statistics
Causal Wizard
Explore cause and effect in historical data; predict the effects of counterfactual
scenarios and other interventions
using the latest Causal Inference methods and machine learning tools,
in an onlin...
causalwizard.app
November 13, 2024 at 12:13 AM
Introductory post! We are causalwizard.app , a website that helps researchers learn about and adopt Causal Inference. The app has a database of about 100 practical causality articles and includes tools from DoWhy, EconML and StatsModels.
#CausalSky #EpiSky #MachineLearning #DataScience #Statistics
#CausalSky #EpiSky #MachineLearning #DataScience #Statistics
Reposted
Just encountered another one of these in the wild!
(This time I was invited to review a very well-written commentary highlighting the issue in another study, so that was a pleasant experience)
(This time I was invited to review a very well-written commentary highlighting the issue in another study, so that was a pleasant experience)
November 12, 2024 at 1:01 PM
We heard the science community has moved here. Looking for #causality , #causalinference #causaldiscovery and related #machinelearning accounts to follow. If that's you, please tag / follow us!
November 12, 2024 at 11:32 PM
We heard the science community has moved here. Looking for #causality , #causalinference #causaldiscovery and related #machinelearning accounts to follow. If that's you, please tag / follow us!