Brandon Hayes
@brandonhayes.bsky.social
Researcher in infectious disease dynamics, somewhere between stats math and epi @INRAE-ENVT || Enthusiast of record shops, bookstores, and cafes, especially if there's a cat || Team oxford comma, even more team em-dash.
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
H3N2 preprint: there are concerns of a severe incoming influenza season due to the drifted H3N2 K clade. We at @psioxford.bsky.social analysed epi data and ran scenario models to see what we could discern about K clade transmission dynamics: zenodo.org/records/1770....
(1/18)
(1/18)
Evaluation of the epidemiological outlook of the influenza A/H3N2 clade K in England during the 2025-26 season
Key findings England is currently experiencing a high growth rate of infections caused by the influenza A/H3N2 K clade. Antigenic change from the previously dominant clade, a rapid selective sweep evi...
zenodo.org
November 25, 2025 at 1:51 PM
H3N2 preprint: there are concerns of a severe incoming influenza season due to the drifted H3N2 K clade. We at @psioxford.bsky.social analysed epi data and ran scenario models to see what we could discern about K clade transmission dynamics: zenodo.org/records/1770....
(1/18)
(1/18)
Fresh start to the day with some Grade-A LinkedIn AI slop
November 19, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Fresh start to the day with some Grade-A LinkedIn AI slop
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
🌈 The website for the inaugural rainbowR conference is now live! 🎉
🗓️ Save the date: Feb 25th-26th, 2026
📣 Call for submissions is open
👯 We're bringing together LGBTQ+ R users to promote our work and foster connections among community members
conference.rainbowr.org
🗓️ Save the date: Feb 25th-26th, 2026
📣 Call for submissions is open
👯 We're bringing together LGBTQ+ R users to promote our work and foster connections among community members
conference.rainbowr.org
– rainbowR conference
conference.rainbowr.org
November 6, 2025 at 3:56 PM
🌈 The website for the inaugural rainbowR conference is now live! 🎉
🗓️ Save the date: Feb 25th-26th, 2026
📣 Call for submissions is open
👯 We're bringing together LGBTQ+ R users to promote our work and foster connections among community members
conference.rainbowr.org
🗓️ Save the date: Feb 25th-26th, 2026
📣 Call for submissions is open
👯 We're bringing together LGBTQ+ R users to promote our work and foster connections among community members
conference.rainbowr.org
Sure academic spam and predatory journal solicitations are unwanted clutter, but starting the day with being called "eminent" and told "your recent publication has been provisionally selected for the "Best Researcher Award."" Why yes go off queen 🥰
November 6, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Sure academic spam and predatory journal solicitations are unwanted clutter, but starting the day with being called "eminent" and told "your recent publication has been provisionally selected for the "Best Researcher Award."" Why yes go off queen 🥰
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
(With apologies to Randall Munroe)
October 15, 2025 at 7:36 AM
(With apologies to Randall Munroe)
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
This is today at 3pm uk time. As a change of pace I think there will be a fairly heavy #julialang component
For this weeks #epinowcast seminar at 3pm UK time online we have Sandra Montes speaking about dynamic survival analysis and optimal control policy for infectious disease modelling.
www.epinowcast.org/seminars/202...
www.epinowcast.org/seminars/202...
Sandra Montes - Optimisation and Dynamic Survival Analysis: Towards a Toolkit for Epidemic Preparedness – Epinowcast
Epinowcast community site
www.epinowcast.org
October 1, 2025 at 8:43 AM
This is today at 3pm uk time. As a change of pace I think there will be a fairly heavy #julialang component
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
I love this. Explainer: There are 100 outcomes (all squares) each equally likely. Wiggly lines event happens 20% of the time; grey event happens 30% of the time. >
This came up in the staff meeting today: how the ordinary English meaning of the word “independent” does not describe at all how a Venn diagram looks, and what to do to fix that. #MathSky www.adelaide.edu.au/mathslearnin...
September 30, 2025 at 9:05 AM
I love this. Explainer: There are 100 outcomes (all squares) each equally likely. Wiggly lines event happens 20% of the time; grey event happens 30% of the time. >
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
yeah we're into LLMs (Large Lamb-bridge Models)
September 26, 2025 at 3:13 PM
yeah we're into LLMs (Large Lamb-bridge Models)
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
Incidentally, in my experience this is the ultimate way to tell an arts nerd from a stem nerd. Arts nerd like the aesthetics of the left side, stem nerds like the logic of the right side. Linguists, being right at the periphery, refuse to choose sides.
Fight.
"," or "",
"," or "",
September 24, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Incidentally, in my experience this is the ultimate way to tell an arts nerd from a stem nerd. Arts nerd like the aesthetics of the left side, stem nerds like the logic of the right side. Linguists, being right at the periphery, refuse to choose sides.
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
a bit delayed, but still hot: A phylodynamic study, conducted in southwestern France, on the importance of farm density when it comes to avian influenza spread: www.nature.com/articles/s42... @claireguinat.bsky.social @epidesa.bsky.social
Poultry farm density and proximity drive highly pathogenic avian influenza spread - Communications Biology
A study using phylodynamics to investigate highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 spread in southwestern France in 2020 and 2021 demonstrates that a single introduction led to rapid spread, mainly in duck farms, with farm density driving transmission.
www.nature.com
September 23, 2025 at 1:49 PM
a bit delayed, but still hot: A phylodynamic study, conducted in southwestern France, on the importance of farm density when it comes to avian influenza spread: www.nature.com/articles/s42... @claireguinat.bsky.social @epidesa.bsky.social
Chuffed to announce that registration for the HPAI Modelling Challenge is now open! Interested in testing your modelling team's outbreak response capabilities in a synthetic, peacetime setting? Want to contribute to the improvement of HPAI epidemic preparedness? Check out below:
🚨 Registration is OPEN 🚨
Join the International Mathematical Modelling Challenge on HPAI!
Participate alongside other modelling teams as you:
🌍 simulate outbreaks
🧮 test management strategies
🤝 strengthen epidemic preparedness
#HPAIModChallenge #HPAI #Epidemiology #OneHealth #DiseaseDynamics
Join the International Mathematical Modelling Challenge on HPAI!
Participate alongside other modelling teams as you:
🌍 simulate outbreaks
🧮 test management strategies
🤝 strengthen epidemic preparedness
#HPAIModChallenge #HPAI #Epidemiology #OneHealth #DiseaseDynamics
September 18, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Chuffed to announce that registration for the HPAI Modelling Challenge is now open! Interested in testing your modelling team's outbreak response capabilities in a synthetic, peacetime setting? Want to contribute to the improvement of HPAI epidemic preparedness? Check out below:
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
Recently came across the really useful term 'Moat of Low Status' from Cate Hall. It describes why we find it so difficult to take steps required to fulfil our ambitions - if we're already good at one thing, it's hard to endure being bad at something else.
Learn to love the Moat of Low Status
It hurts, but less than you think
usefulfictions.substack.com
September 10, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Recently came across the really useful term 'Moat of Low Status' from Cate Hall. It describes why we find it so difficult to take steps required to fulfil our ambitions - if we're already good at one thing, it's hard to endure being bad at something else.
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
Whether it's Democrats making it harder for kids to get cigarettes or Republicans making it harder for kids to get vaccines, both sides have imposed the will of government on America's children.
September 5, 2025 at 2:54 AM
Whether it's Democrats making it harder for kids to get cigarettes or Republicans making it harder for kids to get vaccines, both sides have imposed the will of government on America's children.
When Woody Guthrie proclaimed “This Machine Kills Fascists” this is exactly what he meant 🇺🇸 youtu.be/PL0oB1gbZE4?... #SongoftheYear
The Ballad of Big Balls
YouTube video by Jesse Welles
youtu.be
September 1, 2025 at 7:29 PM
When Woody Guthrie proclaimed “This Machine Kills Fascists” this is exactly what he meant 🇺🇸 youtu.be/PL0oB1gbZE4?... #SongoftheYear
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
Bsky is so disseminated that you never know who is seeing what. So I want to be sure that people see that the foremost public and global health law theorist in the US, Lawrence Gostin of Georgetown Law, is here on Bsky and doesn't have nearly enough followers. Fix that, folks.
So, today I finally got an official letter firing me from the scientific board of NIH's Fogarty International Center. The letter read: You "serve at the pleasure of the Secretary of Health and Human Services. As such, your appointment has been rescinded"
August 29, 2025 at 3:27 AM
Bsky is so disseminated that you never know who is seeing what. So I want to be sure that people see that the foremost public and global health law theorist in the US, Lawrence Gostin of Georgetown Law, is here on Bsky and doesn't have nearly enough followers. Fix that, folks.
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
2 x Postdocs (Berkeley, CA, USA)
Infectious-disease modelling & phylodynamics for pandemic preparedness
with @charleswhittaker.bsky.social
at @petal-team.bsky.social @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social @berkeleypublichlth.bsky.social
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2351
Infectious-disease modelling & phylodynamics for pandemic preparedness
with @charleswhittaker.bsky.social
at @petal-team.bsky.social @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social @berkeleypublichlth.bsky.social
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2351
August 26, 2025 at 8:00 PM
2 x Postdocs (Berkeley, CA, USA)
Infectious-disease modelling & phylodynamics for pandemic preparedness
with @charleswhittaker.bsky.social
at @petal-team.bsky.social @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social @berkeleypublichlth.bsky.social
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2351
Infectious-disease modelling & phylodynamics for pandemic preparedness
with @charleswhittaker.bsky.social
at @petal-team.bsky.social @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social @berkeleypublichlth.bsky.social
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2351
Screwworm is making headlines because of this rare imported human case, but a slightly important omission from these articles is just how *insanely catastrophic* a New World Screwworm (NWS) epidemic would be on people, livestock, pets, and the US economy. 1/7
First human case of the flesh-eating screwworm in the US has been identified in Maryland.
Exclusive: First human screwworm case in US traced to person in Maryland who traveled from Guatemala, sources say
A case of the flesh-eating screwworm parasite has been identified in a person in Maryland who had traveled to the United States from Guatemala, according to four sources familiar with the situation.
www.reuters.com
August 26, 2025 at 12:53 AM
Screwworm is making headlines because of this rare imported human case, but a slightly important omission from these articles is just how *insanely catastrophic* a New World Screwworm (NWS) epidemic would be on people, livestock, pets, and the US economy. 1/7
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
NEW: The CDC shooting was public health’s Jan. 6. from @colincarlson.bsky.social and myself for @statnews.com. we do not make this comparison lightly, and we bring the receipts.
The CDC shooting was public health’s Jan. 6
“In RFK Jr.’s America, it will never be safe to practice public health or medicine," write an epidemiologist and a former CDC staffer.
www.statnews.com
August 15, 2025 at 3:55 PM
NEW: The CDC shooting was public health’s Jan. 6. from @colincarlson.bsky.social and myself for @statnews.com. we do not make this comparison lightly, and we bring the receipts.
Love all those calligraphic letters we get to use in stat formulas. I hope other disciplines get to experience the joy of writing a fancy Y rather than the regular boring one.
August 15, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Love all those calligraphic letters we get to use in stat formulas. I hope other disciplines get to experience the joy of writing a fancy Y rather than the regular boring one.
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
This op-ed from NIH director Jay Bhattacharya is *infuriating*. He says we have to stop funding mRNA vaccine research because it hasn't "earned public trust." Motherfucker, WHO DID THAT.
Opinion | Jay Bhattacharya: Why the NIH is pivoting away from mRNA vaccines
As a vaccine for broad public use, mRNA technology has failed to earn the public’s trust.
www.washingtonpost.com
August 12, 2025 at 9:18 PM
This op-ed from NIH director Jay Bhattacharya is *infuriating*. He says we have to stop funding mRNA vaccine research because it hasn't "earned public trust." Motherfucker, WHO DID THAT.
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
Bird flu is spreading a LOT in dairy farms now in US- now is the time for surveillance and stepping up action on vaccine- but US has Kennedy who seems to think infections are fine and has cancelled the contract for developing a mrna bird flu vaccine
Surveillance on California dairy farms reveals multiple sources of H5N1 transmission
Transmission routes of highly pathogenic H5N1 between cows or to humans remain unclear due to limited data from affected dairy farms. We performed extensive air, farm wastewater, and milk sampling on ...
www.biorxiv.org
August 12, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Bird flu is spreading a LOT in dairy farms now in US- now is the time for surveillance and stepping up action on vaccine- but US has Kennedy who seems to think infections are fine and has cancelled the contract for developing a mrna bird flu vaccine
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
For who still thinks this can’t happen here… it’s already happening.
www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...
www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...
Every Scientific Empire Comes to an End
America’s run as the premiere techno-superpower may be over.
www.theatlantic.com
July 31, 2025 at 2:47 PM
For who still thinks this can’t happen here… it’s already happening.
www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...
www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
The “Infection Pause”: because its about fewer infections, not an immune debt to repay
There was a real, measurable shift in the peak season for several endemic human pathogens as well as a rebound in infections, coinfections, and disease severity among them after the COVID-19 pandemic's…
There was a real, measurable shift in the peak season for several endemic human pathogens as well as a rebound in infections, coinfections, and disease severity among them after the COVID-19 pandemic's…
The “Infection Pause”: because its about fewer infections, not an immune debt to repay
There was a real, measurable shift in the peak season for several endemic human pathogens as well as a rebound in infections, coinfections, and disease severity among them after the COVID-19 pandemic's restrictions on human mixing were lifted. To create a conversational phrase for this, the term "Immune Debt" was coined. This term wasn't well understood and was also misinterpreted, changed and criticised by some in public and scientific circles.
virologydownunder.com
July 31, 2025 at 6:47 AM
The “Infection Pause”: because its about fewer infections, not an immune debt to repay
There was a real, measurable shift in the peak season for several endemic human pathogens as well as a rebound in infections, coinfections, and disease severity among them after the COVID-19 pandemic's…
There was a real, measurable shift in the peak season for several endemic human pathogens as well as a rebound in infections, coinfections, and disease severity among them after the COVID-19 pandemic's…
Reposted by Brandon Hayes
NEW
The White House is blocking the NIH from awarding new research grants for the rest of the fiscal year
Chokes off billions in research funding
Gift link www.wsj.com/politics/pol... with @nidhisubs.bsky.social
The White House is blocking the NIH from awarding new research grants for the rest of the fiscal year
Chokes off billions in research funding
Gift link www.wsj.com/politics/pol... with @nidhisubs.bsky.social
Trump Administration Puts New Chokehold on Billions in Health-Research Funding
The National Institutes of Health can’t award grants to outside researchers under a new White House restriction.
www.wsj.com
July 29, 2025 at 11:58 PM
NEW
The White House is blocking the NIH from awarding new research grants for the rest of the fiscal year
Chokes off billions in research funding
Gift link www.wsj.com/politics/pol... with @nidhisubs.bsky.social
The White House is blocking the NIH from awarding new research grants for the rest of the fiscal year
Chokes off billions in research funding
Gift link www.wsj.com/politics/pol... with @nidhisubs.bsky.social