Brad LeVeck
@bradleveck.bsky.social
political scientist at UC Merced
Likes: 🌄📸, 🧠🔄🧠, 📊🧪
faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck
Likes: 🌄📸, 🧠🔄🧠, 📊🧪
faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Not my family but a family I’ve spent Thanksgiving with had a multi year streak of dry mac & cheese so somebody tried to sneak evaporated milk into the dish already in the oven. It cooked with a milk crust on top. Nobody would fess up & it took 5 years of the cook interrogating family to find out 😂
yes, hello, I would like to place an order for everyone’s funniest stories of holiday food-related family grudges / drama / chaotic incidents / lore
I feel like we need this
I feel like we need this
November 25, 2025 at 3:12 AM
Not my family but a family I’ve spent Thanksgiving with had a multi year streak of dry mac & cheese so somebody tried to sneak evaporated milk into the dish already in the oven. It cooked with a milk crust on top. Nobody would fess up & it took 5 years of the cook interrogating family to find out 😂
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
RAM prices are so out of control that stores are selling it like lobster. Central Computers has started selling RAM at market prices, like you’d pay for the catch-of-the-day at a seafood restaurant 🦞 www.theverge.com/news/828337/...
RAM prices are so out of control that stores are selling it like lobster
Catch of the day.
www.theverge.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:14 AM
RAM prices are so out of control that stores are selling it like lobster. Central Computers has started selling RAM at market prices, like you’d pay for the catch-of-the-day at a seafood restaurant 🦞 www.theverge.com/news/828337/...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
"The high-income admissions advantage at Ivy-Plus colleges is driven by....(1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, and (3) athletic recruitment" which are "uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes" unlike SAT/ACT scores
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges,” by Chetty (@Oppinsights), Deming, and Friedman: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges*
Abstract. We use anonymized admissions data from several colleges linked to income tax records and SAT and ACT test scores to study the determinants and ca
doi.org
November 23, 2025 at 9:29 PM
"The high-income admissions advantage at Ivy-Plus colleges is driven by....(1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, and (3) athletic recruitment" which are "uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes" unlike SAT/ACT scores
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
I wonder what the nostalgia aesthetic of our era will be one day, or since we don’t have as many physical goods if the nostalgia aesthetic will be stuck in the mid-late 20th century for a long time:
November 23, 2025 at 8:21 PM
I wonder what the nostalgia aesthetic of our era will be one day, or since we don’t have as many physical goods if the nostalgia aesthetic will be stuck in the mid-late 20th century for a long time:
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
That John Roberts was more concerned with nuisance lawsuits against the president than he was with whatever this is will haunt this country for a long time
Trump posts again about Democrats, saying their behavior is “punishable by DEATH!”
November 20, 2025 at 6:51 PM
That John Roberts was more concerned with nuisance lawsuits against the president than he was with whatever this is will haunt this country for a long time
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
I truly do not understand how the anti-SAT movement was able to convince people that *SAT scores*, rather than every single other part of a student’s application, were the thing to abolish to increase equity
It’s 2025 and there are still people who are so brain-dead that they’re pretending that standardised testing is not the thing that’s the hardest to game with parental wealth instead of the easiest.
November 20, 2025 at 2:02 AM
I truly do not understand how the anti-SAT movement was able to convince people that *SAT scores*, rather than every single other part of a student’s application, were the thing to abolish to increase equity
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
The other thing I’ll say about the UCSD stuff is that I’ve seen absolutely nothing that makes me think removing SATs wasn’t a huge mistake, should really go back those.
November 20, 2025 at 1:00 AM
The other thing I’ll say about the UCSD stuff is that I’ve seen absolutely nothing that makes me think removing SATs wasn’t a huge mistake, should really go back those.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025.
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
November 19, 2025 at 8:08 PM
The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025.
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.
open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
2. This combination of unpopularity + economic trouble creates incentives for escalation: adventurism abroad (Venezuela) and repression at home (prosecuting political opponents).
AKA "gambling for resurrection."
AKA "gambling for resurrection."
November 14, 2025 at 8:40 PM
2. This combination of unpopularity + economic trouble creates incentives for escalation: adventurism abroad (Venezuela) and repression at home (prosecuting political opponents).
AKA "gambling for resurrection."
AKA "gambling for resurrection."
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
New homes per capita over time
November 14, 2025 at 7:18 PM
New homes per capita over time
It seems like every time I’m about to teach unraveling in information revelation games… the universe provides timely new examples.
November 13, 2025 at 2:26 AM
It seems like every time I’m about to teach unraveling in information revelation games… the universe provides timely new examples.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
blog post: weights and MRP for voters
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
November 12, 2025 at 10:13 PM
blog post: weights and MRP for voters
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
so far we've talked about weights and MRP for E[Y], vote choice in the population overall.
but what if you want E[Y | V = 1], vote choice in the population of voters.
what are the weights and how do you modify MRP ?
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
What intro stats textbook to use?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
What intro stats textbook to use? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 9, 2025 at 4:20 PM
What intro stats textbook to use?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/09/w...
This. I think this capitulation is best explained as a handful of senators trading away 1 in order to stop 2.
November 10, 2025 at 10:30 PM
This. I think this capitulation is best explained as a handful of senators trading away 1 in order to stop 2.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
This is what's so aggravating — yes, it was not working in extracting a policy concession but it was working in *driving down trump's numbers and provoking GOP infighting* which is what's important if you take Dem rhetoric about the perils of MAGA remotely seriously.
weirdly honest messaging from the breakaway mod/institutionalist leaders who blew up the party strategy
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
November 10, 2025 at 2:06 PM
This is what's so aggravating — yes, it was not working in extracting a policy concession but it was working in *driving down trump's numbers and provoking GOP infighting* which is what's important if you take Dem rhetoric about the perils of MAGA remotely seriously.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
It’ll be interesting to see how this changes Republican behavior around the shutdown.
November 5, 2025 at 2:39 AM
It’ll be interesting to see how this changes Republican behavior around the shutdown.
It’ll be interesting to see how this changes Republican behavior around the shutdown.
November 5, 2025 at 2:39 AM
It’ll be interesting to see how this changes Republican behavior around the shutdown.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
“Alex, I’ll take ‘Supreme Court claims that have aged poorly’ for $200”
November 4, 2025 at 2:16 PM
“Alex, I’ll take ‘Supreme Court claims that have aged poorly’ for $200”
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Maybe your texts tell you to "BE A VOTER" like mine.
It all started because of a PNAS paper that claimed that the noun form it increased voter turnout (relative to the verb form ) by 11 to 14 percentage points.
It keeps not replicating, obviously.
Most recently doi.org/10.1017/bpp....
It all started because of a PNAS paper that claimed that the noun form it increased voter turnout (relative to the verb form ) by 11 to 14 percentage points.
It keeps not replicating, obviously.
Most recently doi.org/10.1017/bpp....
November 4, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Maybe your texts tell you to "BE A VOTER" like mine.
It all started because of a PNAS paper that claimed that the noun form it increased voter turnout (relative to the verb form ) by 11 to 14 percentage points.
It keeps not replicating, obviously.
Most recently doi.org/10.1017/bpp....
It all started because of a PNAS paper that claimed that the noun form it increased voter turnout (relative to the verb form ) by 11 to 14 percentage points.
It keeps not replicating, obviously.
Most recently doi.org/10.1017/bpp....
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Delighted to announce we are advertising our first academic post in the Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods (CASSM). The position is Associate Professor in Politics, Technology and Computational Social Science and is joint with Politics, the Oxford Internet Institute, and Reuben College 1/n
Job Details
my.corehr.com
November 3, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Delighted to announce we are advertising our first academic post in the Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods (CASSM). The position is Associate Professor in Politics, Technology and Computational Social Science and is joint with Politics, the Oxford Internet Institute, and Reuben College 1/n
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Clever idea in new econ job market candidate JMP
Equilibrium Neglect and Political Feasibility - convince people to support congestion pricing when they are too pessimistic about its effects by offering compensation if traffic fails to improve
drive.google.com/file/d/1u24n...
Equilibrium Neglect and Political Feasibility - convince people to support congestion pricing when they are too pessimistic about its effects by offering compensation if traffic fails to improve
drive.google.com/file/d/1u24n...
November 3, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Clever idea in new econ job market candidate JMP
Equilibrium Neglect and Political Feasibility - convince people to support congestion pricing when they are too pessimistic about its effects by offering compensation if traffic fails to improve
drive.google.com/file/d/1u24n...
Equilibrium Neglect and Political Feasibility - convince people to support congestion pricing when they are too pessimistic about its effects by offering compensation if traffic fails to improve
drive.google.com/file/d/1u24n...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
November 1, 2025 at 1:54 AM
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Henry Kim and I wrote about this phenomena all the way back in 2013 for House races. faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck/asse...
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 30, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Henry Kim and I wrote about this phenomena all the way back in 2013 for House races. faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck/asse...
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
Henry Kim and I wrote about this phenomena all the way back in 2013 for House races. faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck/asse...
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 30, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Henry Kim and I wrote about this phenomena all the way back in 2013 for House races. faculty.ucmerced.edu/bleveck/asse...
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
My take away is a bit different though: If a party's brand increasingly dominates voters' view of incumbents, then the party should probably try to rebrand as more moderate.
Reposted by Brad LeVeck
Review of applications begins November 10 - please apply! apply.interfolio.com/172357
New job ad: Assistant Professor of Quantitative Social Science, Dartmouth College apply.interfolio.com/172357
Please share with your networks. I am the search chair and happy to answer questions!
Please share with your networks. I am the search chair and happy to answer questions!
October 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Review of applications begins November 10 - please apply! apply.interfolio.com/172357