Ailsa Henderson
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social
PoliSci Prof at Edinburgh - run Scottish Election Study, co-run Union survey/Future of England survey
Voting, polling, attitudes to the union
@scotvoting.bsky.social @theunionsurvey.bsky.social
Voting, polling, attitudes to the union
@scotvoting.bsky.social @theunionsurvey.bsky.social
Pinned
New blog ‼️
Following the Scottish Conservative leadership election, we decided to crunch some numbers and take a look at the party's standing across constitutional and ideological divides 🔵📊
Keep an eye out for more on the other parties soon 👀
scottishelections.ac.uk/2024/10/01/g...
Following the Scottish Conservative leadership election, we decided to crunch some numbers and take a look at the party's standing across constitutional and ideological divides 🔵📊
Keep an eye out for more on the other parties soon 👀
scottishelections.ac.uk/2024/10/01/g...
Are there really so-called “Tartan Tories” in the Scottish electorate?
Following a bruising leadership contest, at the end of September the Scottish Conservative Party opted to elevate Russell Findlay MSP to a job described by some commentators as a “poisoned chalice” wi...
scottishelections.ac.uk
Interested in Scottish voting data?
Follow Scottish Election Study team at account below
Or individually:
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social
@robjohns75.bsky.social
@cjcarman.bsky.social
@jaclarner.bsky.social
@chanret.bsky.social
@martamiori.bsky.social
(Fraser's arriving soon)
Follow Scottish Election Study team at account below
Or individually:
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social
@robjohns75.bsky.social
@cjcarman.bsky.social
@jaclarner.bsky.social
@chanret.bsky.social
@martamiori.bsky.social
(Fraser's arriving soon)
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
The underlying study: "Experimental evidence of the effects of large language models versus web search on depth of learning" academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
"participants reported developing shallower knowledge from LLM summaries even when the results were augmented by...web links" vs. search
"participants reported developing shallower knowledge from LLM summaries even when the results were augmented by...web links" vs. search
November 21, 2025 at 1:31 PM
The underlying study: "Experimental evidence of the effects of large language models versus web search on depth of learning" academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
"participants reported developing shallower knowledge from LLM summaries even when the results were augmented by...web links" vs. search
"participants reported developing shallower knowledge from LLM summaries even when the results were augmented by...web links" vs. search
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
"I am willing to accept slower economic growth in Canada if it means greater economic independence from the United States"
🟢 Agree: 70%
🔴 Disagree: 19%
Read it here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/budget-wee...
🟢 Agree: 70%
🔴 Disagree: 19%
Read it here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/budget-wee...
Budget Week Opens with Rising Public Skepticism
Canadians remain split on Carney's ability to deliver results, while dissatisfaction with Ottawa ticks upward
canadianpolling.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:40 PM
"I am willing to accept slower economic growth in Canada if it means greater economic independence from the United States"
🟢 Agree: 70%
🔴 Disagree: 19%
Read it here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/budget-wee...
🟢 Agree: 70%
🔴 Disagree: 19%
Read it here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/budget-wee...
Newly out from James Mitchell and me, explaining the 2024 UKGE in Scotland
@edinburghpir.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
Email me if you want access and can't get it via your institution
@edinburghpir.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
Email me if you want access and can't get it via your institution
Shifting sands: Sources of voter volatility in the 2024 UK General Election in Scotland
Abstract. In one sense, the 2024 UK General Election in Scotland provided a significant departure from what we have come to expect from elections in the af
academic.oup.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Newly out from James Mitchell and me, explaining the 2024 UKGE in Scotland
@edinburghpir.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
Email me if you want access and can't get it via your institution
@edinburghpir.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
Email me if you want access and can't get it via your institution
New SES methodology incoming. Flawless.
I cannot believe someone has signed off a post saying they are confident about what the Scottish are like because they drink Ardberg
This dork has an army of either bots or losers who think like him.
And I very much believe it's a bot army and very much don't care.
Pretty sure the Scottish are not just sexist all the time. Confident about this as an Ardbeg drinker.
And I very much believe it's a bot army and very much don't care.
Pretty sure the Scottish are not just sexist all the time. Confident about this as an Ardbeg drinker.
October 1, 2025 at 3:49 PM
New SES methodology incoming. Flawless.
Indeed. While often ignoring the devolved elections in May, which *will* lead to government formation
Both UK Lab and UK Cons making life difficult for their devolved parties by fighting the next UKGE 4 years early
Both UK Lab and UK Cons making life difficult for their devolved parties by fighting the next UKGE 4 years early
It just straightforwardly *insane* how much political chatter in the United Kingdom is about the next general election, an event that is a long way in the future, and how basically none of it is about 'uh, this policy agenda doesn't look adequate to the scale of the inherited problem'.
September 22, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Indeed. While often ignoring the devolved elections in May, which *will* lead to government formation
Both UK Lab and UK Cons making life difficult for their devolved parties by fighting the next UKGE 4 years early
Both UK Lab and UK Cons making life difficult for their devolved parties by fighting the next UKGE 4 years early
Advice for the age
The conclusion was: if it's bunting, it's a fete.
If there's no bunting and an anti-refugee message, it's the far right.
Just flags: could be for the women's rugby...
If there's no bunting and an anti-refugee message, it's the far right.
Just flags: could be for the women's rugby...
September 20, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Advice for the age
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
158. AP-GfK, 2009: "If you had to choose, would you prefer to attend a wedding that served champagne and caviar, wine and chicken breasts, or beer and pigs in a blanket?"
September 3, 2025 at 6:25 PM
158. AP-GfK, 2009: "If you had to choose, would you prefer to attend a wedding that served champagne and caviar, wine and chicken breasts, or beer and pigs in a blanket?"
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
153. Gallup/CNN/USA Today, 1998: "For the next question, assume that the Seinfeld characters were real people. Aside from how funny you think they are, would you generally consider them to be likeable people or annoying people?"
September 3, 2025 at 6:18 PM
153. Gallup/CNN/USA Today, 1998: "For the next question, assume that the Seinfeld characters were real people. Aside from how funny you think they are, would you generally consider them to be likeable people or annoying people?"
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
Humanities, arts and social sciences degrees are disappearing in many UK regions.
With more young people than ever studying close to home, course cuts are narrowing their choices at university.
@timeshighered.bsky.social covers our 'Cold Spots' report today. Read more at https://bit.ly/46e3wOy
With more young people than ever studying close to home, course cuts are narrowing their choices at university.
@timeshighered.bsky.social covers our 'Cold Spots' report today. Read more at https://bit.ly/46e3wOy
Humanities and arts degrees disappearing in parts of UK
Students from rural and disadvantaged areas disproportionally affected by subject cuts, British Academy warns
bit.ly
September 10, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Humanities, arts and social sciences degrees are disappearing in many UK regions.
With more young people than ever studying close to home, course cuts are narrowing their choices at university.
@timeshighered.bsky.social covers our 'Cold Spots' report today. Read more at https://bit.ly/46e3wOy
With more young people than ever studying close to home, course cuts are narrowing their choices at university.
@timeshighered.bsky.social covers our 'Cold Spots' report today. Read more at https://bit.ly/46e3wOy
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
Those who say the Western provinces should join the United States:
🔴 MB: 6%
🔴 AB: 6%
🔴 BC: 4%
🔴 SK: 3%
Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
🔴 MB: 6%
🔴 AB: 6%
🔴 BC: 4%
🔴 SK: 3%
Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
Western Canadians Cooling On Separation
While many believe they'd be better off on their own, support for leaving remains low
open.substack.com
September 6, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Those who say the Western provinces should join the United States:
🔴 MB: 6%
🔴 AB: 6%
🔴 BC: 4%
🔴 SK: 3%
Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
🔴 MB: 6%
🔴 AB: 6%
🔴 BC: 4%
🔴 SK: 3%
Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
Department of Offense
Trump: "We decided to go woke and we changed the name to Department of Defense. So we're going to Department of War ... I think it's a much more appropriate name especially in light of where the world is right now."
September 6, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Department of Offense
Featuring @scotvoting.bsky.social data and our recent blog
You can read it, and other great SES analysis, here:
scottishelections.ac.uk/category/blog/
You can read it, and other great SES analysis, here:
scottishelections.ac.uk/category/blog/
September 6, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Featuring @scotvoting.bsky.social data and our recent blog
You can read it, and other great SES analysis, here:
scottishelections.ac.uk/category/blog/
You can read it, and other great SES analysis, here:
scottishelections.ac.uk/category/blog/
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
Lovely use of the phrase "constitutional Tetris" in explaining why lack of effective devolved (and local?) democracy in England enables Farage to stir up xenophobia
NEWYDD - gan @ailsahenderson.bsky.social a minnau.
NEW by me and my fellow student of Englishness, Prof. Ailsa Henderson.
theconversation.com/nigel-farage...
NEW by me and my fellow student of Englishness, Prof. Ailsa Henderson.
theconversation.com/nigel-farage...
Nigel Farage and the political power of English grievance
The Conservatives and Labour have allowed resentment to fester in the biggest part of the UK – and the only region not to have its own parliament.
theconversation.com
September 1, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Lovely use of the phrase "constitutional Tetris" in explaining why lack of effective devolved (and local?) democracy in England enables Farage to stir up xenophobia
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
Same is visible in SQA data (which admittedly is begging out for control vars like course choice)
Large gap at Nat5
Visible gap at Highers
Gone by Adv Highers - pity we don't use those for uni entrance as much
www.itv.com/news/2025-08...
Large gap at Nat5
Visible gap at Highers
Gone by Adv Highers - pity we don't use those for uni entrance as much
www.itv.com/news/2025-08...
www.itv.com
August 17, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Same is visible in SQA data (which admittedly is begging out for control vars like course choice)
Large gap at Nat5
Visible gap at Highers
Gone by Adv Highers - pity we don't use those for uni entrance as much
www.itv.com/news/2025-08...
Large gap at Nat5
Visible gap at Highers
Gone by Adv Highers - pity we don't use those for uni entrance as much
www.itv.com/news/2025-08...
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
I grew up near the route of the old Aberdeen-Ellon-Fraserburgh railway - it would have made my life a lot easier.
Freight was still using the line after oil was struck, and towns mushroomed.
Maybe a pipe dream, but this would be great for the region.
www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/...
Freight was still using the line after oil was struck, and towns mushroomed.
Maybe a pipe dream, but this would be great for the region.
www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/...
Fraserburgh and Peterhead now 'strongest candidates in Scotland' for new rail links
Campaigners say it’s more important than ever to reverse historic railway cuts in north Aberdeenshire - ahead of a major energy conference.
www.pressandjournal.co.uk
August 14, 2025 at 12:43 PM
I grew up near the route of the old Aberdeen-Ellon-Fraserburgh railway - it would have made my life a lot easier.
Freight was still using the line after oil was struck, and towns mushroomed.
Maybe a pipe dream, but this would be great for the region.
www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/...
Freight was still using the line after oil was struck, and towns mushroomed.
Maybe a pipe dream, but this would be great for the region.
www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/...
I think it's really nice they do this but this is my fairly regular request that someone in the PSA puts the Scottish Higher results day in the diary and creates an equivalent post.
We need Scottish students to study politics as well.
We need Scottish students to study politics as well.
Good luck to #Students receiving their #ALevel results today. If you are continuing your studies at #University why not consider a #Politics degree! Here are some helpful pointers from PSA CEO Michelle Doyle Wildman. buff.ly/1LYW8F8
#ALevelResultsDay #ALevelResults2025
#ALevelResultsDay #ALevelResults2025
Considering doing a degree? Why not choose Politics? | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
Exam results season 2025 is well and truly underway. If you are considering clearing or applying for a university place in the future, I’ve set out a few pointers below on why choosing to do a…
buff.ly
August 14, 2025 at 9:58 AM
I think it's really nice they do this but this is my fairly regular request that someone in the PSA puts the Scottish Higher results day in the diary and creates an equivalent post.
We need Scottish students to study politics as well.
We need Scottish students to study politics as well.
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
❗Calling all social scientists ❗
🔎 Want your work to get noticed by non-academic audiences?
Our blog page provides clear and insightful analysis on topical issues, especially UK-EU relations🇬🇧🇪🇺
Got an idea? Send it to [email protected]
Check out our latest blogs 👉 ukandeu.ac.uk/analysis/blo...
🔎 Want your work to get noticed by non-academic audiences?
Our blog page provides clear and insightful analysis on topical issues, especially UK-EU relations🇬🇧🇪🇺
Got an idea? Send it to [email protected]
Check out our latest blogs 👉 ukandeu.ac.uk/analysis/blo...
Blogs - UK in a changing Europe
ukandeu.ac.uk
August 11, 2025 at 1:00 PM
❗Calling all social scientists ❗
🔎 Want your work to get noticed by non-academic audiences?
Our blog page provides clear and insightful analysis on topical issues, especially UK-EU relations🇬🇧🇪🇺
Got an idea? Send it to [email protected]
Check out our latest blogs 👉 ukandeu.ac.uk/analysis/blo...
🔎 Want your work to get noticed by non-academic audiences?
Our blog page provides clear and insightful analysis on topical issues, especially UK-EU relations🇬🇧🇪🇺
Got an idea? Send it to [email protected]
Check out our latest blogs 👉 ukandeu.ac.uk/analysis/blo...
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
A new iPhone update threatens to upend public opinion research, particularly state and local polls - Op-ed from pollster Patrick Ruffini www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | How Apple could send democracy to the spam folder
An iPhone update threatens to upend public opinion research.
www.washingtonpost.com
August 7, 2025 at 7:14 PM
A new iPhone update threatens to upend public opinion research, particularly state and local polls - Op-ed from pollster Patrick Ruffini www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
More SQA data
Attainment gap for girls and boys
%A at National 5
Girls 43.6
Boys 34.7
%A at Higher
Girls 34.1
Boys 27.0
%A at Adv Higher
Girls 31.6
Boys 31.1
www.sqa.org.uk/sqa/114507.h...
Attainment gap for girls and boys
%A at National 5
Girls 43.6
Boys 34.7
%A at Higher
Girls 34.1
Boys 27.0
%A at Adv Higher
Girls 31.6
Boys 31.1
www.sqa.org.uk/sqa/114507.h...
August 6, 2025 at 6:02 PM
More SQA data
Attainment gap for girls and boys
%A at National 5
Girls 43.6
Boys 34.7
%A at Higher
Girls 34.1
Boys 27.0
%A at Adv Higher
Girls 31.6
Boys 31.1
www.sqa.org.uk/sqa/114507.h...
Attainment gap for girls and boys
%A at National 5
Girls 43.6
Boys 34.7
%A at Higher
Girls 34.1
Boys 27.0
%A at Adv Higher
Girls 31.6
Boys 31.1
www.sqa.org.uk/sqa/114507.h...
Happy SQA results day
(To me, who has 7 more to enjoy 🥳🫠)
Amidst the stats released re #s going to Sc uni, might also be worth reporting Sc clearing degrees available to those from Sc schools vs rUK on UCAS site
Strathclyde
Sc students 0
RUK students 223 degrees available via clearing.
Or ...
(To me, who has 7 more to enjoy 🥳🫠)
Amidst the stats released re #s going to Sc uni, might also be worth reporting Sc clearing degrees available to those from Sc schools vs rUK on UCAS site
Strathclyde
Sc students 0
RUK students 223 degrees available via clearing.
Or ...
August 5, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Happy SQA results day
(To me, who has 7 more to enjoy 🥳🫠)
Amidst the stats released re #s going to Sc uni, might also be worth reporting Sc clearing degrees available to those from Sc schools vs rUK on UCAS site
Strathclyde
Sc students 0
RUK students 223 degrees available via clearing.
Or ...
(To me, who has 7 more to enjoy 🥳🫠)
Amidst the stats released re #s going to Sc uni, might also be worth reporting Sc clearing degrees available to those from Sc schools vs rUK on UCAS site
Strathclyde
Sc students 0
RUK students 223 degrees available via clearing.
Or ...
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
Sir Robert Chote, who has been chair since June 2022, announced his resignation last month
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
Cabinet Office launches search for UK Statistics Authority chair
Penny Young, deputy chair of UKSA's board, to be interim chair when Sir Robert Chote departs
www.civilserviceworld.com
August 4, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Sir Robert Chote, who has been chair since June 2022, announced his resignation last month
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
There it is: call for papers, inaugural conference of @epssnet.bsky.social in Belfast, 2026.
Please send your best work and support this new important initiative!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
Please send your best work and support this new important initiative!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
EPSS 2026 Conference | June 18–20 | ICC Belfast, UK
Join top political scientists for the EPSS 2026 Annual Conference in Belfast. Submit papers, attend panels, and network with fellow researchers.
epssnet.org
July 31, 2025 at 1:44 PM
There it is: call for papers, inaugural conference of @epssnet.bsky.social in Belfast, 2026.
Please send your best work and support this new important initiative!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
Please send your best work and support this new important initiative!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026/
Reposted by Ailsa Henderson
Quick reminder of this time limited offer on the latest "Nuffield" study, which will be out in the autumn - 25% off with Waterstones online until tomorrow
I have some good news for election nerds - "The British General Election of 2024" will be out this autumn, and if you're quick you can grab a 25% pre-order discount from Waterstone's by ordering your copy by 31st July, just enter code SUMMER25 www.waterstones.com/book/the-bri...
July 30, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Quick reminder of this time limited offer on the latest "Nuffield" study, which will be out in the autumn - 25% off with Waterstones online until tomorrow