François Heisbourg
fheisbourg.bsky.social
François Heisbourg
@fheisbourg.bsky.social

Senior adviser (Europe), IISS,
Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique

François Heisbourg is currently Senior Advisor for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and Special Advisor at the Paris-based Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique. He was director of the IISS from 1987 to 1992 and its chairman from 2001 to 2018. .. more

Political science 72%
Economics 21%

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1442

1. Trump says Purin kept his word re energy truce

2. 🇺🇦 progresses in Kupiansk shielded by 🇩🇰 🇸🇪 air defence unit

3. 17 Shahed leakers out of ~70
⚡️Putin 'kept his word' — Trump reacts to latest Russian strike on Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump said that Vladimir Putin had "kept his word" on a temporary truce on strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, remarks that came after Russia targeted Ukraine's power plants overnight.
Putin 'kept his word' — Trump reacts to latest Russian strike on Ukraine
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Feb. 3 that Vladimir Putin had "kept his word" on a temporary truce on strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, remarks that came after Russia targeted Ukra...
kyivindependent.com
White House says talks with Tehran this week are still on, even after a US warplane shot down an Iranian drone that approached an aircraft carrier in the region.
u.afp.com/S2QC

Rappel: à travers sa participation au programme Manhattan & les installations de Chalk River, le Canada avait jadis accumulé une grosse expertise nucléaire notamment le retraitement du combustible irradié avec l'équipe des atomistes français (cf Bertrand Goldschmidt, inventeur du procédé PUREX)

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1441

1. No energy cease fire as 300 hundred Shahed (31 hits) and 71 missiles launched (38 down) vs 🇺🇦 . Here's the tally:
20/28 Kh-101 Iskander-K
11/ 32 Iskander-M
4/4 Onyx/Zircon
3/7 Kh-22/32

2. 50 k houses without power in Odesa
⚡️ West agrees to respond militarily to Russia's ceasefire violations in Ukraine, FT reports.

A more extensive Russian attack would trigger a coordinated Western-led military response backed by U.S. forces, initiated 72 hours after the initial breach, the Financial Times reported.
West to respond militarily to Russia's ceasefire violations in Ukraine, FT reports
A more extensive Russian attack would trigger a coordinated Western-led military response backed by the U.S. military, initiated 72 hours after the initial breach, the Financial Times reported.
kyivindependent.com

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1440

1. 24% of Kyiv housing still without heating
2. Nine more IRIS-T to 🇺🇦
3. ~100 Shahed launched, 12 leakers

A combination to be found only in the Trumpian US: free‐range measles and ICE

The bigger issue than these national differences is that Europe needs to spend money now to face off Russia and operate without the US in by the turn of the decade not to develop a plane for the 2050s. It's called prioritising
Après les problèmes franco-allemands du Scaf, l'autre futur avion de combat, Tempest développé par le Royaume-Uni, l'Italie et le Japon, est mal embarqué. / Le ministre italien de la Défense a affirmé que le Royaume-Uni n'en faisait pas assez pour partager sa technologie de pointe
‘Madness’: Italy’s Crosetto slams British secrecy on GCAP fighter jet
“It’s a huge favor to the Russians and the Chinese,” the defense minister told Defense News.
www.defensenews.com
Après les problèmes franco-allemands du Scaf, l'autre futur avion de combat, Tempest développé par le Royaume-Uni, l'Italie et le Japon, est mal embarqué. / Le ministre italien de la Défense a affirmé que le Royaume-Uni n'en faisait pas assez pour partager sa technologie de pointe
‘Madness’: Italy’s Crosetto slams British secrecy on GCAP fighter jet
“It’s a huge favor to the Russians and the Chinese,” the defense minister told Defense News.
www.defensenews.com
❗️In January, the enemy occupied 245 sq km of Ukrainian territory - this is almost half as much as in December or November last year, - DeepState

🔄 The percentage drop in the activity of assault operations - only 4% less than in December, military say that January is still less intense.

Magnifique!
Je n’étais pas passé au mémorial Wagner situé près de la place Rouge depuis longtemps. Le Mémorial est étrangement toléré par les autorités alors que les photos de soldats tués s’y multiplient. On y retrouve évidemment les deux boss de fin de Wagner, tués par Vladimir Poutine en 2023.
The Kh-32 missile is extremely difficult to intercept, due to its combination of speed, high-altitude flight, and sharp terminal dive. Its use during the full-scale invasion has been linked to some of the deadliest attacks on civilians.
Russia steps up attacks with Kh-32 missiles — here's what we know
On Jan. 24, Ukraine's Air Force reported intercepting nine Kh-32 missiles, drawing renewed attention to a weapon that Russia has until now used sparingly in attacks on Ukraine, but often with devastat...
kyivindependent.com

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1439

1. New START treaty runs out this week; no more bilateral nuclear restrictions between US & Russia
2. 168 K id'd Russian KIA says Mediazona in 4 years
3.water back in all Kyiv disrricts
4. Power out in most of Chisinau
5. 14 leakers out of ~60 Shahed
Breaking News: The Border Patrol leader Greg Bovino mocked the Jewish faith of the U.S. attorney in Minnesota during a call with lawyers, according to several people with knowledge of the conversation.
Bovino Is Said to Have Mocked Prosecutor’s Jewish Faith on Call With Lawyers
Gregory Bovino, the Border Patrol field leader, made disparaging remarks in reference to the U.S. attorney in Minnesota, an Orthodox Jew, people with knowledge of the phone call said.
nyti.ms
Guerre d'Ukraine | 30/01/26 | Suite

Secteurs :
🌐 Update Kupiansk🔹U260130-1801
🌐 Kostiantynivka🔹U260130-1806
🌐 Update Ternuvate🔹U260130-1756

#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1438

1. 🇷🇺 energy truce vs Kyiv ends 1 February
2. Energy truce? Kyiv metro down
3. Power hit in Severomorsk & Murmansk
4. 24 out of ~55 Shaheds leak through
Kyiv metro stopped completely due to low voltage. Some stations lost power and escalators are down, RBC-Ukraine reports. Kharkiv metro also halted.
Russia's Murmansk and Severomorsk hit by another blackout with internet and phone outages. Authorities say the repaired pylons are fine but a new failure occurred on a different power line section. It's minus 30°C.
CNN @cnn.com · 4d
"The principles of land and borders are almost 'sacred' for European nationalists, who have visceral memories of what happens when borders are redrawn by force," Christian Edwards writes. | Analysis https://cnn.it/4atAbBV
Ukrainians brace for -20C despite energy truce: 'It will be a catastrophe'
Ukrainians brace for -20C despite energy truce: 'It will be a catastrophe'
Already facing electricity cuts, civilians are struggling to keep warm in their own homes as temperatures are set to plummet.
www.bbc.com
Trump surprisingly announced on Jan. 29 that Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed not to strike Ukrainian cities for a week, though Moscow said that this would concern only Kyiv, and last only until Feb. 1 — just before another cold snap.

SITREP 🇺🇦DAY 1437

1. Trump claims Putin is suspending energy strikes vs 🇺🇦 for 1 week

2. Trump.threatens to decertify Bombardier aircraft of 🇨🇦

3. EU preps 20th sanctions package vs 🇷🇺 for 24 FEB

4. 25 leakeers out of 70 Shahed plus 1 Iskander-M

Eliot Cohen knows whats what
The 2026 National Defense Strategy “appears to have been drafted not by serious people but by Pentagon officials eager to curry favor with an imperious president and terrified of getting their talking points wrong,” Eliot Cohen argues.
Whatever This Is, It Is Not Strategy
Defending the nation will take more than sycophancy, slurs, and slop.
bit.ly
The 2026 National Defense Strategy “appears to have been drafted not by serious people but by Pentagon officials eager to curry favor with an imperious president and terrified of getting their talking points wrong,” Eliot Cohen argues.
Whatever This Is, It Is Not Strategy
Defending the nation will take more than sycophancy, slurs, and slop.
bit.ly

I take former SACEUR Stavridis more seriously than Mark Rutte
@admiralstav.bsky.social chips in on the discussion of whether Europe can defend itself. He does not agree with Mark Rutte.
Op-ed by the former supreme allied commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization:

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

My interview on Macron, Europe and Greenland in L'Express