Thomas Lumley
@tslumley.bsky.social
Biostatistician. Baritone. He/Him.
Product of more than one country.
May contain nuts.
Product of more than one country.
May contain nuts.
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
Hey @erinbiba.bsky.social I hope this finds you
November 29, 2025 at 4:10 AM
Hey @erinbiba.bsky.social I hope this finds you
A young couple rushes up to the boarding gate just 15 minutes before the plane is due to depart, and are turned away by the Qantas staff...
...because the boarding hasn't got anywhere near starting yet
...because the boarding hasn't got anywhere near starting yet
November 29, 2025 at 1:55 AM
A young couple rushes up to the boarding gate just 15 minutes before the plane is due to depart, and are turned away by the Qantas staff...
...because the boarding hasn't got anywhere near starting yet
...because the boarding hasn't got anywhere near starting yet
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
Today I published a replication outlining concerns with "Instrumentally Inclusive" by Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega (2024, APSR).
I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.
I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.
November 28, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Today I published a replication outlining concerns with "Instrumentally Inclusive" by Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega (2024, APSR).
I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.
I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
Bring it! The draft is coming together!
November 28, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Bring it! The draft is coming together!
Auckland volcanoes and buses
- infrequent and irregular
- hard to make them stop
- will really mess you up if they hit you
- infrequent and irregular
- hard to make them stop
- will really mess you up if they hit you
November 28, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Auckland volcanoes and buses
- infrequent and irregular
- hard to make them stop
- will really mess you up if they hit you
- infrequent and irregular
- hard to make them stop
- will really mess you up if they hit you
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
#rstats
It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week.
He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly.
www.john-fox.ca
It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week.
He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly.
www.john-fox.ca
John Fox: Books and Software
www.john-fox.ca
November 28, 2025 at 3:26 PM
#rstats
It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week.
He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly.
www.john-fox.ca
It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week.
He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly.
www.john-fox.ca
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
While covid per capita in wastewater did not get lower than the all time low (since covid spread nationwide) in mid-October, Christmas is looking a lot more like a 2024 prevalence than any earlier year.
November 28, 2025 at 12:43 AM
While covid per capita in wastewater did not get lower than the all time low (since covid spread nationwide) in mid-October, Christmas is looking a lot more like a 2024 prevalence than any earlier year.
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
The new soylent recipe doesn't even have people in it.
November 28, 2025 at 12:14 AM
The new soylent recipe doesn't even have people in it.
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
Your guess seems to be mistaken.
There is no publicly available "Literacy and Communication and Maths Strategy" from the Ministry of Education in 2023. I could find one from 2022, but it does not include this phrase, a google search for which finds in literally one place: Sanford's facebook post.
There is no publicly available "Literacy and Communication and Maths Strategy" from the Ministry of Education in 2023. I could find one from 2022, but it does not include this phrase, a google search for which finds in literally one place: Sanford's facebook post.
November 27, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Your guess seems to be mistaken.
There is no publicly available "Literacy and Communication and Maths Strategy" from the Ministry of Education in 2023. I could find one from 2022, but it does not include this phrase, a google search for which finds in literally one place: Sanford's facebook post.
There is no publicly available "Literacy and Communication and Maths Strategy" from the Ministry of Education in 2023. I could find one from 2022, but it does not include this phrase, a google search for which finds in literally one place: Sanford's facebook post.
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
* You know how Van Halen had a contract rider demanding bowls of M&Ms with the brown ones removed?
They later claimed that was all a test to make sure venues were reading their contracts. Clever!
BUT WAIT, that claim itself is actually false. I fact-checked it.
Snack Stack exclusive:
They later claimed that was all a test to make sure venues were reading their contracts. Clever!
BUT WAIT, that claim itself is actually false. I fact-checked it.
Snack Stack exclusive:
In Search of Van Halen's Brown M&Ms
Contract riders and the meaning of a modern pop star
snackstack.net
November 25, 2025 at 4:37 AM
* You know how Van Halen had a contract rider demanding bowls of M&Ms with the brown ones removed?
They later claimed that was all a test to make sure venues were reading their contracts. Clever!
BUT WAIT, that claim itself is actually false. I fact-checked it.
Snack Stack exclusive:
They later claimed that was all a test to make sure venues were reading their contracts. Clever!
BUT WAIT, that claim itself is actually false. I fact-checked it.
Snack Stack exclusive:
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
Usual MCMC algorithms are typically guaranteed to work well when used to sample from target distributions for which
i) mass is reasonably well-concentrated in the centre of the state space, and
ii) the log-density is smooth and of moderate growth.
Outside of this setting, things can go poorly.
i) mass is reasonably well-concentrated in the centre of the state space, and
ii) the log-density is smooth and of moderate growth.
Outside of this setting, things can go poorly.
November 27, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Usual MCMC algorithms are typically guaranteed to work well when used to sample from target distributions for which
i) mass is reasonably well-concentrated in the centre of the state space, and
ii) the log-density is smooth and of moderate growth.
Outside of this setting, things can go poorly.
i) mass is reasonably well-concentrated in the centre of the state space, and
ii) the log-density is smooth and of moderate growth.
Outside of this setting, things can go poorly.
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
The stuff you find when you actually read the RCTs in a systematic review...
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 PM
The stuff you find when you actually read the RCTs in a systematic review...
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
One preliminary point worth noting on this - because it's pretty opaque if you're not a nerd - is that a public inquiry (which this is) has functionally exactly the same powers and independence that a Royal Commission does.
This is completely at arm's length to the government.
This is completely at arm's length to the government.
Inquiry into handling of the Tom Phillips case announced by government
The inquiry will look if the right steps were taken to ensure the welfare of the fugitive dad's children.
www.rnz.co.nz
November 26, 2025 at 8:39 PM
One preliminary point worth noting on this - because it's pretty opaque if you're not a nerd - is that a public inquiry (which this is) has functionally exactly the same powers and independence that a Royal Commission does.
This is completely at arm's length to the government.
This is completely at arm's length to the government.
Australia seems to have same tragic shortage of people who can repair mufflers as NZ
😐
😐
November 26, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Australia seems to have same tragic shortage of people who can repair mufflers as NZ
😐
😐
Post your warning label
November 26, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Post your warning label
Pointy bird
(?pied currawong)
(?pied currawong)
November 26, 2025 at 2:32 AM
Pointy bird
(?pied currawong)
(?pied currawong)
Controversial opinion: statisticians should reserve the symbol 'w' for weights and not just use it as another 'x'
November 26, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Controversial opinion: statisticians should reserve the symbol 'w' for weights and not just use it as another 'x'
Excellent talk this morning from Cheng Soon Ong on choosing experiments to both learn where the good values are and take advantage of where you already know.
November 25, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Excellent talk this morning from Cheng Soon Ong on choosing experiments to both learn where the good values are and take advantage of where you already know.
I build parsimonious models; you practice dimension reduction for feasibility; they make restrictive assumptions
#IrregularVerbs
#IrregularVerbs
November 25, 2025 at 3:06 AM
I build parsimonious models; you practice dimension reduction for feasibility; they make restrictive assumptions
#IrregularVerbs
#IrregularVerbs
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
Incredible story of tracking down the real human behind AI slop stories, by @nickhunebrown.bsky.social
"I was embarrassed. I had been naively operating with a pre-ChatGPT mindset, still assuming a pitch’s ideas and prose were actually connected to the person who sent it"
Stunning investigation of how slop merchants are getting work into established media outlets
thelocal.to/investigatin...
Stunning investigation of how slop merchants are getting work into established media outlets
thelocal.to/investigatin...
November 24, 2025 at 3:24 AM
Incredible story of tracking down the real human behind AI slop stories, by @nickhunebrown.bsky.social
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
"The mystery of twin heritability comes to an ignoble end: no massive tranche of rare variants, no phantom interactions, just inflation."
I wrote a little bit about the "missing heritability" question and several recent studies that have brought it to a close. A short 🧵
The missing heritability question is now (mostly) answered
Not with a bang but with a whimper
theinfinitesimal.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:07 AM
"The mystery of twin heritability comes to an ignoble end: no massive tranche of rare variants, no phantom interactions, just inflation."
Commendation for the Biometrics -- Australasian Region conference: name tags printed on both sides, not just on the back!
November 23, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Commendation for the Biometrics -- Australasian Region conference: name tags printed on both sides, not just on the back!
Reposted by Thomas Lumley
New paper out: An archaeal genetic code with all TAG codons as pyrrolysine: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
An archaeal genetic code with all TAG codons as pyrrolysine
Multiple genetic codes developed during the evolution of eukaryotes and bacteria, yet no alternative genetic code is known for archaea. We used proteomics to confirm our prediction that certain archae...
www.science.org
November 23, 2025 at 7:22 PM
New paper out: An archaeal genetic code with all TAG codons as pyrrolysine: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
I don't have the attention span for pure mathematics.
(or, quite possibly, the ability, but I diverted to statistics before that came up)
(or, quite possibly, the ability, but I diverted to statistics before that came up)
November 23, 2025 at 4:30 AM
I don't have the attention span for pure mathematics.
(or, quite possibly, the ability, but I diverted to statistics before that came up)
(or, quite possibly, the ability, but I diverted to statistics before that came up)