Tera Allas CBE
@teraallas.bsky.social
I agree with the OBR that there's little in this #budget that will drive growth. But looking across all 75 policy decisions, there are _some_ that are at least potentially marginally positive. Shame they are marginal, and shame they weren't emphasised in the narrative. #dataisbeautiful
November 27, 2025 at 12:33 PM
I agree with the OBR that there's little in this #budget that will drive growth. But looking across all 75 policy decisions, there are _some_ that are at least potentially marginally positive. Shame they are marginal, and shame they weren't emphasised in the narrative. #dataisbeautiful
Reposted by Tera Allas CBE
Don't forget to sign up to our online event at 1pm to hear our #Budget analysis and the take from the markets with @pgimglobal.bsky.social's Katharine Neiss and from businesses with CBI's Mohammad Jamei, chaired by @teraallas.bsky.social
👇A not-to-be-missed webinar!🖱️📝👇
niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...
👇A not-to-be-missed webinar!🖱️📝👇
niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...
November 27, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Don't forget to sign up to our online event at 1pm to hear our #Budget analysis and the take from the markets with @pgimglobal.bsky.social's Katharine Neiss and from businesses with CBI's Mohammad Jamei, chaired by @teraallas.bsky.social
👇A not-to-be-missed webinar!🖱️📝👇
niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...
👇A not-to-be-missed webinar!🖱️📝👇
niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...
A total of 2 out of 75 policy decisions in yesterday's #Budget were what I would call 'material'. Were all of the 73 others really necessary? Politically, possibly yes, but economically, they add to the complexity costs of the UK's fiscal regime. #dataisbeautiful
November 27, 2025 at 9:45 AM
A total of 2 out of 75 policy decisions in yesterday's #Budget were what I would call 'material'. Were all of the 73 others really necessary? Politically, possibly yes, but economically, they add to the complexity costs of the UK's fiscal regime. #dataisbeautiful
Did you notice that this was a record-breaking #Budget? A total of 88 policy decisions were announced, 75 of which were new. A very wide _spread_ of a smorgasbord, then. Note: the materiality of measures is typically inversely correlated with their number... #dataisbeautiful
November 26, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Did you notice that this was a record-breaking #Budget? A total of 88 policy decisions were announced, 75 of which were new. A very wide _spread_ of a smorgasbord, then. Note: the materiality of measures is typically inversely correlated with their number... #dataisbeautiful
The OBR’s EFO makes for a riveting read. Box 3.1 is excellent — not least for compelling departments to provide evaluation evidence on supply-side policies. As for this #Budget: “the impacts on government and business investment are too small to affect potential output.” Ouch.
#dataisbeautiful
#dataisbeautiful
November 26, 2025 at 4:23 PM
The OBR’s EFO makes for a riveting read. Box 3.1 is excellent — not least for compelling departments to provide evaluation evidence on supply-side policies. As for this #Budget: “the impacts on government and business investment are too small to affect potential output.” Ouch.
#dataisbeautiful
#dataisbeautiful
The #Budget says that it "protects increased public investment over the Parliament and delivers the infrastructure needed to drive growth". Put in context, though, public sector gross investment still stays at 11% of total managed expenditure to 2030/31. #dataisbeautiful
November 26, 2025 at 3:10 PM
The #Budget says that it "protects increased public investment over the Parliament and delivers the infrastructure needed to drive growth". Put in context, though, public sector gross investment still stays at 11% of total managed expenditure to 2030/31. #dataisbeautiful
At #Budget2025, the OBR trend #productivity #growth forecast was downgraded as expected, from 1.3% to 1.0%. This is still much higher than recent outturns (see chart). Is there a risk of future downgrades? #dataisbeautiful
November 26, 2025 at 2:15 PM
At #Budget2025, the OBR trend #productivity #growth forecast was downgraded as expected, from 1.3% to 1.0%. This is still much higher than recent outturns (see chart). Is there a risk of future downgrades? #dataisbeautiful
Reposted by Tera Allas CBE
Will today's #Budget boost productivity?
Get a head start on how the budget will impact productivity: podfollow.com/productivity...
@bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), Louise Hellem (CBI) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
Get a head start on how the budget will impact productivity: podfollow.com/productivity...
@bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), Louise Hellem (CBI) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
Productivity Puzzles: Will We Get a Productive Budget?
The Chancellor’s Budget is on the horizon. Will it bring higher taxes, deeper cuts, or more borrowing? Does the Budget really matter for productivity? And how does productivity shape the Budget? ...
podfollow.com
November 26, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Will today's #Budget boost productivity?
Get a head start on how the budget will impact productivity: podfollow.com/productivity...
@bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), Louise Hellem (CBI) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
Get a head start on how the budget will impact productivity: podfollow.com/productivity...
@bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), Louise Hellem (CBI) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
It's likely the #Budget2025 speech will say something about #capital #investment and #growth. The much-talked-about additional £113bn previously increased capex DEL from 9% to 10% of all public spending. Hardly transformational. Let's see. #dataisbeautiful
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 AM
It's likely the #Budget2025 speech will say something about #capital #investment and #growth. The much-talked-about additional £113bn previously increased capex DEL from 9% to 10% of all public spending. Hardly transformational. Let's see. #dataisbeautiful
Reposted by Tera Allas CBE
Tomorrow is #Budget Day - And the day after tomorrow is our event presenting our analysis on it and discussing all the various announcements with PGIM and CBI, chaired by @teraallas.bsky.social
💻Online ⏰ 1-2pm
Signed up here👇
#Budget2025 #UKeconomy #Chancellor
niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...
💻Online ⏰ 1-2pm
Signed up here👇
#Budget2025 #UKeconomy #Chancellor
niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...
November 25, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Tomorrow is #Budget Day - And the day after tomorrow is our event presenting our analysis on it and discussing all the various announcements with PGIM and CBI, chaired by @teraallas.bsky.social
💻Online ⏰ 1-2pm
Signed up here👇
#Budget2025 #UKeconomy #Chancellor
niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...
💻Online ⏰ 1-2pm
Signed up here👇
#Budget2025 #UKeconomy #Chancellor
niesr.ac.uk/event/discus...
One thing I'm not looking forward to in the #Budget2025 is the number of policy decisions. Why do there have to be so many? [Of course, politics...] But did each of those nearly 1,000 policy decisions at fiscal events since Budget 2014 really make a positive difference? #dataisbeautiful
November 25, 2025 at 12:02 PM
One thing I'm not looking forward to in the #Budget2025 is the number of policy decisions. Why do there have to be so many? [Of course, politics...] But did each of those nearly 1,000 policy decisions at fiscal events since Budget 2014 really make a positive difference? #dataisbeautiful
Reposted by Tera Allas CBE
Up to three million UK jobs in declining occupations could disappear by 2035, largely due to AI and automation – more than previously forecast.
This is one of many findings from the final report from our 5-year Skills Imperative 2035 Programme.
Find out more 👇 www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releas...
This is one of many findings from the final report from our 5-year Skills Imperative 2035 Programme.
Find out more 👇 www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releas...
Up to three million UK jobs at risk over the next decade, says report
The final report from The Skills Imperative 2035 Programme has warned that up to three million UK jobs in declining occupations could disappear by 2035, largely due to AI and automation.
www.nfer.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Up to three million UK jobs in declining occupations could disappear by 2035, largely due to AI and automation – more than previously forecast.
This is one of many findings from the final report from our 5-year Skills Imperative 2035 Programme.
Find out more 👇 www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releas...
This is one of many findings from the final report from our 5-year Skills Imperative 2035 Programme.
Find out more 👇 www.nfer.ac.uk/press-releas...
Reposted by Tera Allas CBE
#Budget day is on Wednesday - does the UK need to invest more money in the NHS? @teraallas.bsky.social provides her expertise on the latest Productivity Puzzles ep.: podfollow.com/productivity...
The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.
The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.
November 24, 2025 at 9:07 AM
#Budget day is on Wednesday - does the UK need to invest more money in the NHS? @teraallas.bsky.social provides her expertise on the latest Productivity Puzzles ep.: podfollow.com/productivity...
The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.
The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.
As the debates for #Budget2025 reach their final crescendo, I challenge you to look at the chart below. It is data you almost never see or hear of, because it is highly inconvenient for most political persuasions. #dataisbeautiful
November 24, 2025 at 9:15 PM
As the debates for #Budget2025 reach their final crescendo, I challenge you to look at the chart below. It is data you almost never see or hear of, because it is highly inconvenient for most political persuasions. #dataisbeautiful
#Gemini is nice and grovelling when it makes a mistake. "You are absolutely correct and I deeply apologize. I have made a significant error in jumping ahead and assuming you had added the code when you clearly stated we should slow down. That was unacceptable, and I will correct it immediately."
November 23, 2025 at 12:01 PM
#Gemini is nice and grovelling when it makes a mistake. "You are absolutely correct and I deeply apologize. I have made a significant error in jumping ahead and assuming you had added the code when you clearly stated we should slow down. That was unacceptable, and I will correct it immediately."
Consumer confidence fell again, to -19. Is the UK in a 'vibecession'? #GDP, disposable income and real wages have been growing, but consumers remain gloomy about the broader economy and, perhaps, the #Budget2025. #dataisbeautiful
November 21, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Consumer confidence fell again, to -19. Is the UK in a 'vibecession'? #GDP, disposable income and real wages have been growing, but consumers remain gloomy about the broader economy and, perhaps, the #Budget2025. #dataisbeautiful
Pleased to have contributed to this excellent Bloomberg article by Tom Rees and Irina Anghel. The data on the value of a university degree is confusing, but not after reading this. Plus we updated our analysis of #AI impact on job ads. bit.ly/4icuCuY #dataisbeautiful
November 21, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Pleased to have contributed to this excellent Bloomberg article by Tom Rees and Irina Anghel. The data on the value of a university degree is confusing, but not after reading this. Plus we updated our analysis of #AI impact on job ads. bit.ly/4icuCuY #dataisbeautiful
It's obvious that mental health impacts on workers' #productivity; it's also confirmed by data. Often the issues themselves are caused by work, and avoidable. Read our chapter on #wellbeing and productivity in "Reimagining Business Schools for the 21st Century" (bit.ly/4rtIMfB). #dataisbeautiful
November 21, 2025 at 12:01 PM
It's obvious that mental health impacts on workers' #productivity; it's also confirmed by data. Often the issues themselves are caused by work, and avoidable. Read our chapter on #wellbeing and productivity in "Reimagining Business Schools for the 21st Century" (bit.ly/4rtIMfB). #dataisbeautiful
Reposted by Tera Allas CBE
Does increasing growth in the long run mean making politically difficult decisions in the short term? podfollow.com/productivity...
This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
November 20, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Does increasing growth in the long run mean making politically difficult decisions in the short term? podfollow.com/productivity...
This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
NEW PODCAST - Will we get a productive #budget?
New episode of Productivity Puzzles looks at how the budget matters for #productivity and how productivity shapes the budget.
Great conversation with Bart van Ark (host), Louise Hellem (CBI) and Stephen Millard (NIESR)! Listen here: lnkd.in/e8dCVbKG
New episode of Productivity Puzzles looks at how the budget matters for #productivity and how productivity shapes the budget.
Great conversation with Bart van Ark (host), Louise Hellem (CBI) and Stephen Millard (NIESR)! Listen here: lnkd.in/e8dCVbKG
November 18, 2025 at 12:02 PM
NEW PODCAST - Will we get a productive #budget?
New episode of Productivity Puzzles looks at how the budget matters for #productivity and how productivity shapes the budget.
Great conversation with Bart van Ark (host), Louise Hellem (CBI) and Stephen Millard (NIESR)! Listen here: lnkd.in/e8dCVbKG
New episode of Productivity Puzzles looks at how the budget matters for #productivity and how productivity shapes the budget.
Great conversation with Bart van Ark (host), Louise Hellem (CBI) and Stephen Millard (NIESR)! Listen here: lnkd.in/e8dCVbKG
Why has #NHS #productivity underperformed? Same as the broader economy: lack of productive capital to support workers. Capital per worker declined by a massive 36% to 2020, probably more since.
#dataisbeautiful
#NHSProductivityCommission report: bit.ly/3WPxu76
UK's capital gap: bit.ly/455vGwe
#dataisbeautiful
#NHSProductivityCommission report: bit.ly/3WPxu76
UK's capital gap: bit.ly/455vGwe
November 18, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Why has #NHS #productivity underperformed? Same as the broader economy: lack of productive capital to support workers. Capital per worker declined by a massive 36% to 2020, probably more since.
#dataisbeautiful
#NHSProductivityCommission report: bit.ly/3WPxu76
UK's capital gap: bit.ly/455vGwe
#dataisbeautiful
#NHSProductivityCommission report: bit.ly/3WPxu76
UK's capital gap: bit.ly/455vGwe
Most organisations haven't yet reduced their workforce across the board due to #AI. However, more expect declines next year. That's why we don't yet see big #productivity gains but do see a slowdown in hiring. #dataisbeautiful
"State of AI": bit.ly/3LuVzh2
Effect on UK job market: bit.ly/450jtbv
"State of AI": bit.ly/3LuVzh2
Effect on UK job market: bit.ly/450jtbv
November 17, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Most organisations haven't yet reduced their workforce across the board due to #AI. However, more expect declines next year. That's why we don't yet see big #productivity gains but do see a slowdown in hiring. #dataisbeautiful
"State of AI": bit.ly/3LuVzh2
Effect on UK job market: bit.ly/450jtbv
"State of AI": bit.ly/3LuVzh2
Effect on UK job market: bit.ly/450jtbv
More striking stats from our #NHSProductivityCommission report (bit.ly/3WPxu76). UK hospital length of stay (a key #productivity indicator) increased hugely from 2019 to 2023. Hospital employment jumped by >15%. No wonder £ spent are not translating into better health outcomes. #dataisbeautiful
November 17, 2025 at 10:15 AM
More striking stats from our #NHSProductivityCommission report (bit.ly/3WPxu76). UK hospital length of stay (a key #productivity indicator) increased hugely from 2019 to 2023. Hospital employment jumped by >15%. No wonder £ spent are not translating into better health outcomes. #dataisbeautiful
Business #investment is a leading indicator of #productivity #growth. It is not picking up, and nor do businesses expect it to. Access to finance is _not_ the reason for the vast majority of firms. So the trillion dollar question is: why are UK businesses so reticent to invest? #dataisbeautiful
November 14, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Business #investment is a leading indicator of #productivity #growth. It is not picking up, and nor do businesses expect it to. Access to finance is _not_ the reason for the vast majority of firms. So the trillion dollar question is: why are UK businesses so reticent to invest? #dataisbeautiful
Is the UK seeing a #productivity revival, if we look at alternative data from PAYE payrolls? No. Putting this data into context reveals that productivity #growth post-pandemic has still been abysmal. [Reminder: #OBR mid-term projection in March 2025 was still 1.3%.] #dataisbeautiful
November 13, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Is the UK seeing a #productivity revival, if we look at alternative data from PAYE payrolls? No. Putting this data into context reveals that productivity #growth post-pandemic has still been abysmal. [Reminder: #OBR mid-term projection in March 2025 was still 1.3%.] #dataisbeautiful