Tera Allas CBE
@teraallas.bsky.social
Fascinating new analysis by the ONS on UK #business #dynamism and #productivity. Firms employing a third of workers in the non-financial business economy contributed negatively, and the next third only marginally, to productivity #growth.
Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn
Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn
December 8, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Fascinating new analysis by the ONS on UK #business #dynamism and #productivity. Firms employing a third of workers in the non-financial business economy contributed negatively, and the next third only marginally, to productivity #growth.
Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn
Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn
Honoured to join such a diverse panel of economists - @helenmiller.bsky.social, Peder Beck-Friis, @ruthcurtice.bsky.social - for today’s Treasury Select Committee Budget hearing. Learned a great deal from colleagues' in-depth expertise and brilliant exposition of the evidence. bit.ly/4pRI3TL
December 3, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Honoured to join such a diverse panel of economists - @helenmiller.bsky.social, Peder Beck-Friis, @ruthcurtice.bsky.social - for today’s Treasury Select Committee Budget hearing. Learned a great deal from colleagues' in-depth expertise and brilliant exposition of the evidence. bit.ly/4pRI3TL
I agree with the OBR that there's little in this #budget that will drive growth. But looking across all 75 policy decisions, there are _some_ that are at least potentially marginally positive. Shame they are marginal, and shame they weren't emphasised in the narrative. #dataisbeautiful
November 27, 2025 at 12:33 PM
I agree with the OBR that there's little in this #budget that will drive growth. But looking across all 75 policy decisions, there are _some_ that are at least potentially marginally positive. Shame they are marginal, and shame they weren't emphasised in the narrative. #dataisbeautiful
A total of 2 out of 75 policy decisions in yesterday's #Budget were what I would call 'material'. Were all of the 73 others really necessary? Politically, possibly yes, but economically, they add to the complexity costs of the UK's fiscal regime. #dataisbeautiful
November 27, 2025 at 9:45 AM
A total of 2 out of 75 policy decisions in yesterday's #Budget were what I would call 'material'. Were all of the 73 others really necessary? Politically, possibly yes, but economically, they add to the complexity costs of the UK's fiscal regime. #dataisbeautiful
Did you notice that this was a record-breaking #Budget? A total of 88 policy decisions were announced, 75 of which were new. A very wide _spread_ of a smorgasbord, then. Note: the materiality of measures is typically inversely correlated with their number... #dataisbeautiful
November 26, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Did you notice that this was a record-breaking #Budget? A total of 88 policy decisions were announced, 75 of which were new. A very wide _spread_ of a smorgasbord, then. Note: the materiality of measures is typically inversely correlated with their number... #dataisbeautiful
The OBR’s EFO makes for a riveting read. Box 3.1 is excellent — not least for compelling departments to provide evaluation evidence on supply-side policies. As for this #Budget: “the impacts on government and business investment are too small to affect potential output.” Ouch.
#dataisbeautiful
#dataisbeautiful
November 26, 2025 at 4:23 PM
The OBR’s EFO makes for a riveting read. Box 3.1 is excellent — not least for compelling departments to provide evaluation evidence on supply-side policies. As for this #Budget: “the impacts on government and business investment are too small to affect potential output.” Ouch.
#dataisbeautiful
#dataisbeautiful
The #Budget says that it "protects increased public investment over the Parliament and delivers the infrastructure needed to drive growth". Put in context, though, public sector gross investment still stays at 11% of total managed expenditure to 2030/31. #dataisbeautiful
November 26, 2025 at 3:10 PM
The #Budget says that it "protects increased public investment over the Parliament and delivers the infrastructure needed to drive growth". Put in context, though, public sector gross investment still stays at 11% of total managed expenditure to 2030/31. #dataisbeautiful
At #Budget2025, the OBR trend #productivity #growth forecast was downgraded as expected, from 1.3% to 1.0%. This is still much higher than recent outturns (see chart). Is there a risk of future downgrades? #dataisbeautiful
November 26, 2025 at 2:15 PM
At #Budget2025, the OBR trend #productivity #growth forecast was downgraded as expected, from 1.3% to 1.0%. This is still much higher than recent outturns (see chart). Is there a risk of future downgrades? #dataisbeautiful
It's likely the #Budget2025 speech will say something about #capital #investment and #growth. The much-talked-about additional £113bn previously increased capex DEL from 9% to 10% of all public spending. Hardly transformational. Let's see. #dataisbeautiful
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 AM
It's likely the #Budget2025 speech will say something about #capital #investment and #growth. The much-talked-about additional £113bn previously increased capex DEL from 9% to 10% of all public spending. Hardly transformational. Let's see. #dataisbeautiful
One thing I'm not looking forward to in the #Budget2025 is the number of policy decisions. Why do there have to be so many? [Of course, politics...] But did each of those nearly 1,000 policy decisions at fiscal events since Budget 2014 really make a positive difference? #dataisbeautiful
November 25, 2025 at 12:02 PM
One thing I'm not looking forward to in the #Budget2025 is the number of policy decisions. Why do there have to be so many? [Of course, politics...] But did each of those nearly 1,000 policy decisions at fiscal events since Budget 2014 really make a positive difference? #dataisbeautiful
These are cash the government gives directly to households. The big ones are state pensions, universal credit, child benefit, and disability benefits. The below is the full list from this data source.
November 25, 2025 at 10:54 AM
These are cash the government gives directly to households. The big ones are state pensions, universal credit, child benefit, and disability benefits. The below is the full list from this data source.
As the debates for #Budget2025 reach their final crescendo, I challenge you to look at the chart below. It is data you almost never see or hear of, because it is highly inconvenient for most political persuasions. #dataisbeautiful
November 24, 2025 at 9:15 PM
As the debates for #Budget2025 reach their final crescendo, I challenge you to look at the chart below. It is data you almost never see or hear of, because it is highly inconvenient for most political persuasions. #dataisbeautiful
Consumer confidence fell again, to -19. Is the UK in a 'vibecession'? #GDP, disposable income and real wages have been growing, but consumers remain gloomy about the broader economy and, perhaps, the #Budget2025. #dataisbeautiful
November 21, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Consumer confidence fell again, to -19. Is the UK in a 'vibecession'? #GDP, disposable income and real wages have been growing, but consumers remain gloomy about the broader economy and, perhaps, the #Budget2025. #dataisbeautiful
Pleased to have contributed to this excellent Bloomberg article by Tom Rees and Irina Anghel. The data on the value of a university degree is confusing, but not after reading this. Plus we updated our analysis of #AI impact on job ads. bit.ly/4icuCuY #dataisbeautiful
November 21, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Pleased to have contributed to this excellent Bloomberg article by Tom Rees and Irina Anghel. The data on the value of a university degree is confusing, but not after reading this. Plus we updated our analysis of #AI impact on job ads. bit.ly/4icuCuY #dataisbeautiful
It's obvious that mental health impacts on workers' #productivity; it's also confirmed by data. Often the issues themselves are caused by work, and avoidable. Read our chapter on #wellbeing and productivity in "Reimagining Business Schools for the 21st Century" (bit.ly/4rtIMfB). #dataisbeautiful
November 21, 2025 at 12:01 PM
It's obvious that mental health impacts on workers' #productivity; it's also confirmed by data. Often the issues themselves are caused by work, and avoidable. Read our chapter on #wellbeing and productivity in "Reimagining Business Schools for the 21st Century" (bit.ly/4rtIMfB). #dataisbeautiful
NEW PODCAST - Will we get a productive #budget?
New episode of Productivity Puzzles looks at how the budget matters for #productivity and how productivity shapes the budget.
Great conversation with Bart van Ark (host), Louise Hellem (CBI) and Stephen Millard (NIESR)! Listen here: lnkd.in/e8dCVbKG
New episode of Productivity Puzzles looks at how the budget matters for #productivity and how productivity shapes the budget.
Great conversation with Bart van Ark (host), Louise Hellem (CBI) and Stephen Millard (NIESR)! Listen here: lnkd.in/e8dCVbKG
November 18, 2025 at 12:02 PM
NEW PODCAST - Will we get a productive #budget?
New episode of Productivity Puzzles looks at how the budget matters for #productivity and how productivity shapes the budget.
Great conversation with Bart van Ark (host), Louise Hellem (CBI) and Stephen Millard (NIESR)! Listen here: lnkd.in/e8dCVbKG
New episode of Productivity Puzzles looks at how the budget matters for #productivity and how productivity shapes the budget.
Great conversation with Bart van Ark (host), Louise Hellem (CBI) and Stephen Millard (NIESR)! Listen here: lnkd.in/e8dCVbKG
Why has #NHS #productivity underperformed? Same as the broader economy: lack of productive capital to support workers. Capital per worker declined by a massive 36% to 2020, probably more since.
#dataisbeautiful
#NHSProductivityCommission report: bit.ly/3WPxu76
UK's capital gap: bit.ly/455vGwe
#dataisbeautiful
#NHSProductivityCommission report: bit.ly/3WPxu76
UK's capital gap: bit.ly/455vGwe
November 18, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Why has #NHS #productivity underperformed? Same as the broader economy: lack of productive capital to support workers. Capital per worker declined by a massive 36% to 2020, probably more since.
#dataisbeautiful
#NHSProductivityCommission report: bit.ly/3WPxu76
UK's capital gap: bit.ly/455vGwe
#dataisbeautiful
#NHSProductivityCommission report: bit.ly/3WPxu76
UK's capital gap: bit.ly/455vGwe
Most organisations haven't yet reduced their workforce across the board due to #AI. However, more expect declines next year. That's why we don't yet see big #productivity gains but do see a slowdown in hiring. #dataisbeautiful
"State of AI": bit.ly/3LuVzh2
Effect on UK job market: bit.ly/450jtbv
"State of AI": bit.ly/3LuVzh2
Effect on UK job market: bit.ly/450jtbv
November 17, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Most organisations haven't yet reduced their workforce across the board due to #AI. However, more expect declines next year. That's why we don't yet see big #productivity gains but do see a slowdown in hiring. #dataisbeautiful
"State of AI": bit.ly/3LuVzh2
Effect on UK job market: bit.ly/450jtbv
"State of AI": bit.ly/3LuVzh2
Effect on UK job market: bit.ly/450jtbv
More striking stats from our #NHSProductivityCommission report (bit.ly/3WPxu76). UK hospital length of stay (a key #productivity indicator) increased hugely from 2019 to 2023. Hospital employment jumped by >15%. No wonder £ spent are not translating into better health outcomes. #dataisbeautiful
November 17, 2025 at 10:15 AM
More striking stats from our #NHSProductivityCommission report (bit.ly/3WPxu76). UK hospital length of stay (a key #productivity indicator) increased hugely from 2019 to 2023. Hospital employment jumped by >15%. No wonder £ spent are not translating into better health outcomes. #dataisbeautiful
Business #investment is a leading indicator of #productivity #growth. It is not picking up, and nor do businesses expect it to. Access to finance is _not_ the reason for the vast majority of firms. So the trillion dollar question is: why are UK businesses so reticent to invest? #dataisbeautiful
November 14, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Business #investment is a leading indicator of #productivity #growth. It is not picking up, and nor do businesses expect it to. Access to finance is _not_ the reason for the vast majority of firms. So the trillion dollar question is: why are UK businesses so reticent to invest? #dataisbeautiful
Is the UK seeing a #productivity revival, if we look at alternative data from PAYE payrolls? No. Putting this data into context reveals that productivity #growth post-pandemic has still been abysmal. [Reminder: #OBR mid-term projection in March 2025 was still 1.3%.] #dataisbeautiful
November 13, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Is the UK seeing a #productivity revival, if we look at alternative data from PAYE payrolls? No. Putting this data into context reveals that productivity #growth post-pandemic has still been abysmal. [Reminder: #OBR mid-term projection in March 2025 was still 1.3%.] #dataisbeautiful
Adoption of #AI is driving sales, profitability, and growth - right? Well... [And it's not yet showing up in productivity, either.] For this sample of large firms, the (self-reported) main impact is so far has been in innovation. Full report: bit.ly/3LuVzh2 #dataisbeautiful
November 11, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Adoption of #AI is driving sales, profitability, and growth - right? Well... [And it's not yet showing up in productivity, either.] For this sample of large firms, the (self-reported) main impact is so far has been in innovation. Full report: bit.ly/3LuVzh2 #dataisbeautiful
In the upcoming #UKBudget, does it make sense to "protect the NHS"? Our #NHSProductivityCommission analysis suggests we were already getting poor value for money pre-pandemic, relative to comparator countries. Full report here: bit.ly/3WPxu76 #dataisbeautiful
November 11, 2025 at 11:25 AM
In the upcoming #UKBudget, does it make sense to "protect the NHS"? Our #NHSProductivityCommission analysis suggests we were already getting poor value for money pre-pandemic, relative to comparator countries. Full report here: bit.ly/3WPxu76 #dataisbeautiful
Fantastically informative report by my colleagues at McKinsey and QuantumBlack on the State of #AI. Below just one of the critical insights on how to turn experimentation into enterprise-level productivity and value. Full report here: bit.ly/3LuVzh2 #dataisbeautiful
November 7, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Fantastically informative report by my colleagues at McKinsey and QuantumBlack on the State of #AI. Below just one of the critical insights on how to turn experimentation into enterprise-level productivity and value. Full report here: bit.ly/3LuVzh2 #dataisbeautiful
Outstanding speech by @bankofengland.bsky.social Catherine L. Mann on the UK's "consumption gap" at the @resfoundation.bsky.social. Evidence that scarring (inflation shock) is still influencing people's consumption and saving decisions.
Link to speech: bit.ly/4n1PhTl
Link to speech: bit.ly/4n1PhTl
October 9, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Outstanding speech by @bankofengland.bsky.social Catherine L. Mann on the UK's "consumption gap" at the @resfoundation.bsky.social. Evidence that scarring (inflation shock) is still influencing people's consumption and saving decisions.
Link to speech: bit.ly/4n1PhTl
Link to speech: bit.ly/4n1PhTl