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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 5h

With #inflation picking up and pay growth easing, workers’ standards of living are improving only marginally compared to earlier this year

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Read more here 👇

niesr.ac.uk/publications...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 5h

We therefore think pay growth will slow towards 4% by year-end

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 5h

Business recruitment continues to slow, with today’s data showing the #unemployment rate rising to 4.8% in the three months to August

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 5h

⚡️OUT NOW⚡️ Our latest #Wage Tracker suggests workers' #LivingStandards are improving at a slower pace 📉

Here’s a short thread explaining the latest labour market developments ⬇️

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niesr.ac.uk/publications...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 9h

⚡️Our reaction to the latest #labourmarket figures is out now ⚡️

@resmedia.bsky.social

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Reposted by National Institute of Economic and Social Research

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

Congratulations to Phillippe Aghion for being (co)awarded the @nobelprize.bsky.social in Economic Sciences!

Last year he delivered our annual Prais Lecture on the economic impact of #AI

If you were not there or haven't watch it back, well worth play catch-up 👇

niesr.ac.uk/event/prais-...

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Reposted by National Institute of Economic and Social Research

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

"By designing their own services, #youngpeople with learning disabilities and autism dramatically improve their #employment outcomes and challenge adult perceptions"

Our new #MondayInterview by Marley Williams on his recent Youth Futures Foundation research 👇👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/using-y...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

Congratulations to Phillippe Aghion for being (co)awarded the @nobelprize.bsky.social in Economic Sciences!

Last year he delivered our annual Prais Lecture on the economic impact of #AI

If you were not there or haven't watch it back, well worth play catch-up 👇

niesr.ac.uk/event/prais-...

4 6

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

"By designing their own services, #youngpeople with learning disabilities and autism dramatically improve their #employment outcomes and challenge adult perceptions"

Our new #MondayInterview by Marley Williams on his recent Youth Futures Foundation research 👇👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/using-y...

1 3 5

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 2d

#WeekendReading🔖 The first 'CFM-NIESR survey' ⚡

We asked the panel members to provide their thoughts on the reasons the UK borrowing costs are so high, and the extent to which these costs should be considered in the upcoming #Budget ⬇️

niesr.ac.uk/news/latest-...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 2d

#WeekendReading🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman looks at what is driving the UK’s rise in gilt yields and how can they start to be brought down 📉

Read it here 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/why-are...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 3d

#WeekendReading🔖 Our latest analysis suggesting that raising the rate of #incometax would be the least economically damaging option available to the #Chancellor at this time ⬇️

#Budget2025 #ukeconomy #FiscalPolicy
niesr.ac.uk/publications...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 3d

#WeekendReading🔖 How #green investment impacts #productivity? What are the nature-related risks to #GDP and financial stability?

In the latest #MondayInterview, our @edmundcornforth.bsky.social & Lea De Greef explore how to manage the econ. transition to #NetZero

niesr.ac.uk/blog/managin...

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Reposted by National Institute of Economic and Social Research

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

The #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman looks at what is driving the UK’s rise in gilt yields and how can they start to be brought down 📉

Read it here 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/why-are...

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Reposted by National Institute of Economic and Social Research

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

⚡️NEW ANALYSIS OUT NOW ⚡️

Raising the rate of #incometax would be the least economically damaging option available to the #Chancellor at this time

Read more here ⬇️

#Budget2025
#ukeconomy
#FiscalPolicy

niesr.ac.uk/publications...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

The #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman looks at what is driving the UK’s rise in gilt yields and how can they start to be brought down 📉

Read it here 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/why-are...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

Over to @danneidle.bsky.social for some thought-provoking remarks - 'Some of the proposals from economists such as a land value tax are good in principle but will never be introduced by politicians' - so they are in effect off the table

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

One consideration regarding raising #incometax is around maintaining credibility, thus likely lowering Govt borrowing costs through reduced perceived risk, so there is the possibility that we could land on the 'green line', argues
@edmundcornforth.bsky.social concluding his presentation

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

From a distributional point of view, all three options are regressive - and households in second bottom decile are hit hardest as they just over the allowance and start paying income tax

#VAT still the worse of the options, especially in the short run

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

As for the shock effects on real #GDP over time -

In the short run, #VAT has the largest immediate impact because of the large price effect. However, the shock dies down and is relatively temporary -

But #VAT would increase the rate of #inflation, #interestrates, and #unemployment

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

Whilst #incometax directly effects household’s real personal disposable income, which will hit their consumption expenditure, #VAT has both a demand and supply side impact, lowering real incomes and leading to a central bank response to reduce inflationary impact

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

Using our NiGEM model the analysis compares different tax options available to the Chancellor at the forthcoming Autumn Budget.

We assume that the government aims to raise total net annual revenue by £30 billion by 2029-30

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

And we are off, with our Director David Aikman introducing @edmundcornforth.bsky.social Edmund which starts his presentation by outlining the motivation of this analysis, outlining how tax options left as only feasible, reliable way to get back on track

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

Don't forget you can still sign up to our #webinar on this very topic starting in just under one hour! ⏰

You will hear directly from the authors of the report as well as from tax expert @danneidle.bsky.social

Join us here 👇 or follow the live posting 🧵

niesr.ac.uk/event/taxing...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

Don't forget you can still sign up to our #webinar on this very topic starting in just under one hour! ⏰

You will hear directly from the authors of the report as well as from tax expert @danneidle.bsky.social

Join us here 👇 or follow the live posting 🧵

niesr.ac.uk/event/taxing...

1

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

⚡️NEW ANALYSIS OUT NOW ⚡️

Raising the rate of #incometax would be the least economically damaging option available to the #Chancellor at this time

Read more here ⬇️

#Budget2025
#ukeconomy
#FiscalPolicy

niesr.ac.uk/publications...

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