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Troels Bøggild

@tboeggild.bsky.social

2K followers 620 following 46 posts

Political scientist | Associate Professor, @AarhusUni | DFF Research leader | Political behavior, distrust, polarization, social media

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Troels Bøggild @tboeggild.bsky.social · Aug 9

🚨New article🚨 out in AJPS w C Jensen. We analyze downstream consequences of rising incivility between politicians and find adverse effects on citizens' political trust, satisfaction w democracy, and intentions to comply w policies

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

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Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory @jpart1991.bsky.social · 22h

Have you ever wondered what happens when governments introduce new policies without adding the administrative capacity to support them? Recent research shows that instead of improving problem-solving, such expansions can overwhelm public agencies, forcing them to engage in “policy triage”,

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Heike Klüver @heikekluever.bsky.social · 20h

Why do people turn to populist parties? 🤔

📣 Our new study just published at @ejprjournal.bsky.social shows it’s not just real inequality - it’s perceived inequality that drives populism.

📌 Blog: hu-govlab.de/en/perceived...
📊 Study: tinyurl.com/msnndnpn
🏛️ Funded by: @scripts-berlin.eu

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António Valentim @antvalentim.bsky.social · 1d

🚨 New paper out!

Very happy to see our (Tom Arend, @fabioellger.bsky.social and mine) paper out at the @bjpols.bsky.social.

We explore how voters react to new, disruptive political actors.

1/3

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Lee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 3d

Thermostatic public opinion, reacting against the governing regime, like old faithful.
globalaffairs.org/research/pub...

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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 5d

#OpenAccess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social -

Liberal democratic values among immigrants in Europe: Socialisation and adaptation processes - https://cup.org/42C8Zxv

- @fguelzau.bsky.social, Marc Helbling & @snmorgenstern.bsky.social

#FirstView

Banner for the European Journal of Political Research, available on Cambridge Core, the platform of Cambridge University Press. The banner is in blue with white and lighter blue text.

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Tiago Ventura @tiagoventura.bsky.social · 8d

How common are “survey professionals” - people who take dozens of online surveys for pay - across online panels, and do they harm data quality?

Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):

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Rob Sica @robsica.bsky.social · 12d

"We echo previous calls to temper our discussions of misinformation and avoid jumping to overblown conclusions about the effects of misinformation"

Evaluating real-world effects of one-off fake news exposure - Scientific Reports

Scientific Reports - Evaluating real-world effects of one-off fake news exposure

www.nature.com

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Science Magazine @science.org · 12d

"Combining an urgent analysis with masterful breadth, Susan Stokes’s book The Backsliders focuses on the contemporary challenge of global democratic erosion, a notable and expanding trend."

Read the #ScienceBooks Review: https://scim.ag/3WhckhQ

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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 19d

Just posted an updated/revised version of this “Statistical Methods in Public Policy Research” chapter, now under review post-R&R 🤞

I'm kinda partial and unbiased here, but I really really like this piece!

HTML/PDF: stats.andrewheiss.com/snoopy-spring/
SocArXiv: doi.org/10.31235/osf...

Statistical Methods in Public Policy Research
Chapter for the Oxford Research Encyclopedia on Public Policy

This essay provides an overview of statistical methods in public policy, focused primarily on the United States. The essay traces the historical development of quantitative approaches in policy research, from early ad hoc applications through the 19th and early 20th centuries, to the full institutionalization of statistical analysis in federal, state, local, and nonprofit agencies by the late 20th century. It then outlines three core methodological approaches to policy-centered statistical research across social science disciplines: description, explanation, and prediction. In descriptive work, researchers explore what exists and examine any variable of interest to understand their different distributions and relationships. In explanatory work, researchers ask why does it exist and how can it be influenced. The focus of the analysis is on explanatory variables (X) to either (1) accurately estimate their relationship with an outcome variable (Y), or (2) causally attribute the effect of specific explanatory variables on outcomes. In predictive work, researchers ask what will happen next and focus on the outcome variable (Y) and on generating accurate forecasts, classifications, and predictions from new data. For each approach, the essay examines key techniques, their applications in policy contexts, and important methodological considerations. The discussion then considers critical perspectives on quantitative policy analysis framed around issues related to a three-part “data imperative” where governments are driven to count, gather, and learn from data. Each of these imperatives entail substantial issues related to privacy, accountability, democratic participation, and epistemic inequalities—issues at odds with public sector values of transparency and openness. The conclusion identifies some emerging trends in public sector-focused data science, inclusive ethi…

Table of contents
Introduction
1 Brief History of Statistics in Public Policy
2 Core Methodological Approaches
2.1 Description
2.2 Explanation
2.2.1 Estimation, Inference, and Hypothesis Testing
2.2.2 Causal Attribution and Causal Inference
2.3 Prediction
3 The Pitfalls of Counting, Gathering, and Learning from Public Data
4 Future Directions
Further Reading
References

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 20d

I’m starting to notice a trend in the polling data…

—Top Public Worry: Corruption

—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption

—Top fear: Corruption

—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”

It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.

Top 10 American Fears of 2024 (Chapman Survey)
Horizontal bar chart ranking the top fears of Americans (percentage “afraid” or “very afraid”):
1. Corrupt government officials (65.2%, top fear for years).
2. Loved ones becoming seriously ill (58.4%).
3. Cyberterrorism (58.3%).
4. Loved ones dying (57.8%).
5. Russia using nuclear weapons (55.8%).
6. Not having enough money for the future (55.7%).
7. U.S. becoming involved in another world war (55.0%).
8. North Korea using nuclear weapons (55.0%).
9. Terrorist attack (52.7%).
10. Biological warfare (52.5%).
Red bars display percentages; small arrows indicate change from 2023 rankings.

Top Public Worries in the U.S. (Yale & GMU poll, May 2025)
Stacked bar chart of worries among U.S. adults. Categories ranked by share “very worried”:
• Government corruption (54% very worried, top issue).
• Other leading concerns: cost of living (48%), the economy (47%), state of democracy (44%), disruption of federal services (44%), cultural/social divisions (36%), treatment of immigrants (35%), global warming (29%), crime (26%).
• Lower worries include job security (17%), health (16%), and being targeted because of identity/beliefs (15%).
Green shades show “very/somewhat worried,” yellow/orange shades show “not very/not at all worried.

Perceptions of Federal Government Problems (AP-NORC poll)
Bar chart showing the percentage of U.S. adults who consider various issues in the federal government to be a major problem, minor problem, or not a problem.
• Corruption: Overall 70% major, 22% minor, 7% not a problem. Higher among Republicans (78%) than Democrats (63%).
• Inefficiency: 65% major overall, with Republicans (81%) much higher than Democrats (55%).
• Red tape (bureaucracy): 59% major overall, with Republicans (73%) higher than Democrats (47%).
• Civil servants unwilling to implement president’s agenda: More partisan split—Republicans 56% major problem, Democrats 20% major problem; overall 34% major, 36% minor, 28% not a problem.
Title: “Majority of the public believe corruption, inefficiency, and red tape are major problems in the federal government.

Word Cloud of How People Describe American Government (Berkeley Democracy Policy Lab)
Large central word: “Corrupt.” Other prominent words: Broken, Chaotic, Dysfunctional, Shit, Clueless, Divided, Inefficient, Crooked, Hijacked, Justice, Woke, Bloated, Untrustworthy, Hopeless, Frustrated, Disastrous, Messy, Sneaky, Turmoil, Delusional. Smaller scattered words include both negative and neutral terms such as Crap, Important, Poder, Resilient, Unfocused, Needs Help. Visual emphasizes “Corrupt” as the dominant public perception.

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Derek Holliday @derekholliday.com · 22d

New in PNAS with @seanjwestwood.bsky.social and @ylelkes.bsky.social: Why depolarization is hard: Evaluating attempts to decrease partisan animosity in America

@prl.bsky.social @pnas.org

www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

PNAS

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...

www.pnas.org

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PsyArXivBot @psyarxivbot.bsky.social · 22d

Finding the fingerprints of generative AI in psychology publications: https://osf.io/3hx76

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 27d

Researchers asked AI to generate 100 short stories from the same prompt and found the same plot elements showing up again like echoes, even across different LLMs. The collective creativity of online content is at risk, the authors say. In PNAS: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

A small subset of 100 short story continuations generated by GPT-4 given the first part of Give It Up, a short story by Franz Kafka.

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Nick Carnes @carnes.bsky.social · 29d

Just out at JOP (www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....) : Why do so few working-class people hold office? It's not lack of interest. Noam Lupu and I ran 10 surveys in 8 countries and found no evidence of a social class gap in how often qualified people consider running.

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Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social · 29d

"Unsuccessful Candidates Are More Concerned About Electoral Fairness than Election Winners" by Roman Senninger, Martin Baekgaard, and Henrik Seeberg.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

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Karoline Kolstad @karolinekolstad.bsky.social · 29d

Do high workloads force bureaucrats to discriminate?

In a published paper at the @thejop.bsky.social, I challenge the dominant explanation of discrimination in public service delivery. Surprisingly, I find that bureaucrats are able to handle substantial workloads without discriminating.

Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social · Sep 15

"Overburdened Bureaucrats: Providing Equal Access to Public Services During COVID-19" by Karoline Larsen Kolstad. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

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Arnout van de Rijt @arnoutvanderijt.bsky.social · Sep 16

Brextinction!

From our student @fresejoris.bsky.social and colleagues @juhoharkonen.bsky.social @simonhix.bsky.social

ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Brextinction? How cohort replacement has transformed support for Brexit

Public support for Brexit has declined since the 2016 referendum. We argue that part of this decline is due to cohort replacement where many older voters (who support Brexit) have passed away, while ...

ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · Sep 14

Is the world turning conspiracist?

Contrary to this widespread belief, research by Uscinski et al in the US and Europe, approaching the question in different ways, fails to observe systematic evidence for an increase in conspiracism:

buff.ly/hFQ31qu

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · Aug 27

Republican Members of Congress are no longer coming from elite institutions of higher education. Elite-educated legislators are more liberal. Important manifestation of the education divide between the parties & context for the current higher ed wars
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Journal of Democracy @jodemocracy.bsky.social · Sep 12

🚨 Recognize these symptoms of democratic backsliding before it's too late:

1) Extreme polarization
2) Executive control of legislature
3) Quiet incremental tests of democratic norms and limits

muse.jhu.edu/article...

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Journal of Democracy @jodemocracy.bsky.social · Sep 12

Old-fashioned military coups and blatant election-day fraud are becoming mercifully rarer these days, but other, subtler forms of democratic regression are a growing problem that demands more attention.

muse.jhu.edu/article...

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Eva Krejcova @evakrejcova.bsky.social · Sep 12

1/ How does migration affect political attitudes? Using 380k obs from 104 sending & 28 receiving countries, @filipkostelka.bsky.social, Nicolas Sauger & I find some migrants’ attitudes align with locals, while others exceed origin-host context, reshaping ideological space.
👉 doi.org/10.1111/ajps...

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WEP Journal @wepsocial.bsky.social · Sep 12

💥Online first:

"The sound of party competition: how applause reflects unity, disagreement, and the electoral cycle in parliaments"

by @ankuepfer.bsky.social @jocmuel.bsky.social & @pluggedchris.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Abstract of the research article "The sound of party competition: how applause reflects unity, disagreement, and the electoral cycle in parliaments" by Andreas Küpfer, Jochen Müller and Christian Stecker. Published online first in West European Politics.

Figure 1, displaying the occurences of different types of reactions in the German Bundestag between 1976 and 2020.

Figure 3, displaying the heatmap of predicted applause per 1000 words based on a Poission regression model.

Figure 5, displaying expected applause for interaction terms government and opposition.

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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · Sep 9

Incredible parallels in this Berinsky &
@gabelenz.bsky.social paper. Politicians didn't stand up to Joe McCarthy in large part because they incorrectly inferred McCarthy/ism was extremely popular. Not standing up to McCarthy was a kind of 1950s Popularism

gated academic.oup.com/poq/article/...

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Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · Sep 4

🇺🇸 Can watching dialogue across party lines reduce polarisation?

➡️ L-O Ankori-Karlinsky, @robert_a_blair, J. Gottlieb & @smooreberg show that a documentary of an intergroup workshop reduces polarisation and boosts faith in democracy www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

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