Scott Free
@scottparker3000.bsky.social
Curator of fine skeets? bleats? posts?
Econ con, stats, arts, humor, nyc
Econ con, stats, arts, humor, nyc
Pinned
Academic career goal: making a type VIII error
xkcd.com/2303/
xkcd.com/2303/
Reposted by Scott Free
Before castigating a book for not using a term, you should check to see if the book uses a term.
October 26, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Before castigating a book for not using a term, you should check to see if the book uses a term.
Reposted by Scott Free
New code review response just dropped:
September 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
New code review response just dropped:
Reposted by Scott Free
September 17, 2025 at 4:18 AM
Reposted by Scott Free
"So I actually like the deep state. I think that any functioning political system has to have a civil service that meets these basic Weberian requirements of being non-partisan, expert, professional, and the like."
- @frankfukuyama.bsky.social at #LibCon2025
- @frankfukuyama.bsky.social at #LibCon2025
August 14, 2025 at 9:25 PM
"So I actually like the deep state. I think that any functioning political system has to have a civil service that meets these basic Weberian requirements of being non-partisan, expert, professional, and the like."
- @frankfukuyama.bsky.social at #LibCon2025
- @frankfukuyama.bsky.social at #LibCon2025
Reposted by Scott Free
😯 I recently came across a sobering paper on here: among 16,649 hypothesis tests reported in political science, the median test has only about 10% power to detect the consensus effect size reported in the literature. Fewer than one in ten tests reach the conventional 80% power threshold.
August 13, 2025 at 11:56 AM
😯 I recently came across a sobering paper on here: among 16,649 hypothesis tests reported in political science, the median test has only about 10% power to detect the consensus effect size reported in the literature. Fewer than one in ten tests reach the conventional 80% power threshold.
Reposted by Scott Free
"PhD-level experts in your back pocket" is a completely nonsensical description of AI but a pretty good description of social media if you follow the right people
August 9, 2025 at 11:07 PM
"PhD-level experts in your back pocket" is a completely nonsensical description of AI but a pretty good description of social media if you follow the right people
Reposted by Scott Free
Stephen Moore never fails to make careless errors, cherry pick numbers, and misrepresent the data. My friend Christooher Clarke picks apart Moore's latest dishonesty, exposing mistakes and misrepresentations that are big, embarrassing, and disqualifying.
Worth watching: www.tiktok.com/t/ZT6aPQUJt/
Worth watching: www.tiktok.com/t/ZT6aPQUJt/
Economist Stephen Moore cherry picks data to present in White House. He claims BLS overestimated Biden job numbers by 1.5M. However, he commits numerous errors. Over Biden's 4 yrs, the BLS initially u...
TikTok video by Christopher Clarke
www.tiktok.com
August 10, 2025 at 1:36 AM
Stephen Moore never fails to make careless errors, cherry pick numbers, and misrepresent the data. My friend Christooher Clarke picks apart Moore's latest dishonesty, exposing mistakes and misrepresentations that are big, embarrassing, and disqualifying.
Worth watching: www.tiktok.com/t/ZT6aPQUJt/
Worth watching: www.tiktok.com/t/ZT6aPQUJt/
Reposted by Scott Free
We’ve discovered a magic trick where we tell the kids that they absolutely *have to* help us clean up, and suddenly they’re perfectly able to entertain themselves for extended periods of time while maintaining a low profile.
August 10, 2025 at 4:04 PM
We’ve discovered a magic trick where we tell the kids that they absolutely *have to* help us clean up, and suddenly they’re perfectly able to entertain themselves for extended periods of time while maintaining a low profile.
Reposted by Scott Free
After a month or so of not using Claude Code much to write R code, I recently returned to using the tool most days. Giving coding assistants the ability to peruse #rstats package documentation via MCP is so, so helpful: www.simonpcouch.com/blog/2025-07...
How I’m using Claude Code to write R code | Simon P. Couch – Simon P. Couch
www.simonpcouch.com
July 17, 2025 at 7:07 PM
After a month or so of not using Claude Code much to write R code, I recently returned to using the tool most days. Giving coding assistants the ability to peruse #rstats package documentation via MCP is so, so helpful: www.simonpcouch.com/blog/2025-07...
Reposted by Scott Free
"Useless estimator" story: I recently consulted with someone using Maximum Score for a real well-motivated empirical project! I was excited because I'd known it mostly as a theoretical curiosity, w/ the ugliest asymptotic distribution known to man that also breaks the bootstrap.
🧵
🧵
There’s an analogy here about econometrics theory and applied economics work.
faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/cfm754/et_in...
faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/cfm754/et_in...
July 19, 2025 at 1:39 AM
"Useless estimator" story: I recently consulted with someone using Maximum Score for a real well-motivated empirical project! I was excited because I'd known it mostly as a theoretical curiosity, w/ the ugliest asymptotic distribution known to man that also breaks the bootstrap.
🧵
🧵
Reposted by Scott Free
Reposted by Scott Free
New blog post! Let's say you've measured two variables repeatedly and want to investigate how one affects the other over time. Here are some recommendations for how to do that well.
www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...
www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...
Reviewer notes: So you’re interested in “lagged effects.”
In some fields, researchers who end up with time series of two variables of interest (X and Y) like to analyze (reciprocal) lagged effects between them. Does X affect Y at a later point in time, and d...
www.the100.ci
June 25, 2025 at 12:27 PM
New blog post! Let's say you've measured two variables repeatedly and want to investigate how one affects the other over time. Here are some recommendations for how to do that well.
www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...
www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...
Reposted by Scott Free
Reposted by Scott Free
Reposted by Scott Free
I think I might have shared this earlier but I found it really interesting
Risk ratio, odds ratio, risk difference... Which causal measure is easier to generalize?
There are many measures to report so-called treatment or causal effects: absolute difference, ratio, odds ratio, number needed to treat, and so on. The choice of a measure, eg absolute versus relative...
arxiv.org
May 27, 2025 at 6:40 AM
I think I might have shared this earlier but I found it really interesting
Reposted by Scott Free
When your statistical model "fits the data well" ...
May 9, 2025 at 6:25 AM
When your statistical model "fits the data well" ...
Reposted by Scott Free
Proudly presenting the (for now) final version of "Why experiments work." To share the materials in a slightly more professional manner, I added a "Resources" page to my website: juliarohrer.com/resources/.
That was long overdue anyway; now there's also a curated list of my papers and blog posts.
That was long overdue anyway; now there's also a curated list of my papers and blog posts.
April 12, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Proudly presenting the (for now) final version of "Why experiments work." To share the materials in a slightly more professional manner, I added a "Resources" page to my website: juliarohrer.com/resources/.
That was long overdue anyway; now there's also a curated list of my papers and blog posts.
That was long overdue anyway; now there's also a curated list of my papers and blog posts.
Reposted by Scott Free
“McDonalds workers in Denmark make more than Honda workers in Alabama” is such a key point. It’s the institutions, stupid.
April 8, 2025 at 4:27 PM
“McDonalds workers in Denmark make more than Honda workers in Alabama” is such a key point. It’s the institutions, stupid.
Reposted by Scott Free
Okay, I'm not done yet but I have been instructed to head to the #EuroCIM2025 student mixer and I guess you get the idea.
I've been struggling to explain this in talks just working with the equations; I think the figures should make it a lot easier to follow along.
I've been struggling to explain this in talks just working with the equations; I think the figures should make it a lot easier to follow along.
April 8, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Okay, I'm not done yet but I have been instructed to head to the #EuroCIM2025 student mixer and I guess you get the idea.
I've been struggling to explain this in talks just working with the equations; I think the figures should make it a lot easier to follow along.
I've been struggling to explain this in talks just working with the equations; I think the figures should make it a lot easier to follow along.
Reposted by Scott Free
Gave a talk to our PhD students today, and feeling appreciative of all the recent methods work on improving common practices. Thanks to all the authors who work to make their work accessible, especially on social media.
A few articles we discussed:
A few articles we discussed:
April 7, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Gave a talk to our PhD students today, and feeling appreciative of all the recent methods work on improving common practices. Thanks to all the authors who work to make their work accessible, especially on social media.
A few articles we discussed:
A few articles we discussed:
Reposted by Scott Free
Markets are crashing because President Trump has issued punishing sanctions against the American people.
April 4, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Markets are crashing because President Trump has issued punishing sanctions against the American people.
Reposted by Scott Free
After seeing FiveThirtyEights implementation of this idea (thank you @andrew.heiss.phd for sharing), I've been working on a medicine themed p-hacking simulator called Placebo playground: medicines.charlwood.xyz#phacking
#pharmsky #healtheconomics #medsky #pharmacy
1/3 🧵
#pharmsky #healtheconomics #medsky #pharmacy
1/3 🧵
April 3, 2025 at 7:36 PM
After seeing FiveThirtyEights implementation of this idea (thank you @andrew.heiss.phd for sharing), I've been working on a medicine themed p-hacking simulator called Placebo playground: medicines.charlwood.xyz#phacking
#pharmsky #healtheconomics #medsky #pharmacy
1/3 🧵
#pharmsky #healtheconomics #medsky #pharmacy
1/3 🧵
Reposted by Scott Free
Take a simple example: I run a trade deficit with Trader Joe's buying their meals, while they buy none of mine. My trade deficit as a share of my imports is 100%.
By Trump's trade logic, this deficit is evidence they're imposing 100% tariffs on the meals I try to sell them. Obviously this is false.
By Trump's trade logic, this deficit is evidence they're imposing 100% tariffs on the meals I try to sell them. Obviously this is false.
April 3, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Take a simple example: I run a trade deficit with Trader Joe's buying their meals, while they buy none of mine. My trade deficit as a share of my imports is 100%.
By Trump's trade logic, this deficit is evidence they're imposing 100% tariffs on the meals I try to sell them. Obviously this is false.
By Trump's trade logic, this deficit is evidence they're imposing 100% tariffs on the meals I try to sell them. Obviously this is false.