Rob Cyran
@robcyran.bsky.social
More fox than hedgehog - financial columnist Reuters Breakingviews (healthcare, energy, some tech, climate risk)
Reposted by Rob Cyran
The residential mortgage market was simply like 2 orders of magnitude bigger than the tech debt right now.
Like people are talking about 3 trillion in tech debt by 2028. There was 10 trillion in MBS in 2008 (not including the private insurer issues, weird derivatives).
Like people are talking about 3 trillion in tech debt by 2028. There was 10 trillion in MBS in 2008 (not including the private insurer issues, weird derivatives).
November 28, 2025 at 7:26 PM
The residential mortgage market was simply like 2 orders of magnitude bigger than the tech debt right now.
Like people are talking about 3 trillion in tech debt by 2028. There was 10 trillion in MBS in 2008 (not including the private insurer issues, weird derivatives).
Like people are talking about 3 trillion in tech debt by 2028. There was 10 trillion in MBS in 2008 (not including the private insurer issues, weird derivatives).
The Enhanced Games - a pro-drug Olympic Games - which was founded by the guy who led Peter Thiel’s lawsuit that bankrupt
Gawker, is going public via SPAC.
The above sentence is completely factual.
Gawker, is going public via SPAC.
The above sentence is completely factual.
November 26, 2025 at 5:17 PM
The Enhanced Games - a pro-drug Olympic Games - which was founded by the guy who led Peter Thiel’s lawsuit that bankrupt
Gawker, is going public via SPAC.
The above sentence is completely factual.
Gawker, is going public via SPAC.
The above sentence is completely factual.
This is silly. There’s a reason mass market consumer facing internet companies from Google to Meta toyed with charging users and went the ad route instead. Snag is Sam has to make the revenue projections sufficient to justify his capex assumptions. Hard to do with ad ARPU.
Exclusive: OpenAI has projected 220 million people will be paying for a basic ChatGPT subscription by 2030 as it follows Slack’s and Spotify’s business playbook.
Read more from Sri Muppidi 👇
https://thein.fo/4insfpg
Read more from Sri Muppidi 👇
https://thein.fo/4insfpg
OpenAI Projected at Least 220 Million People Will Pay for ChatGPT by 2030
To boost ChatGPT revenue, OpenAI is following a playbook enterprise apps Zoom and Slack have used to increase paid users. It’s hooking up most of its users—which now number more than 800 million—with ...
thein.fo
November 26, 2025 at 2:05 AM
This is silly. There’s a reason mass market consumer facing internet companies from Google to Meta toyed with charging users and went the ad route instead. Snag is Sam has to make the revenue projections sufficient to justify his capex assumptions. Hard to do with ad ARPU.
The lack of awareness of the relationships (and conflation) between pattern matching, reasoning, intelligence and possible consciousness in the discourse around AI is really annoying. Huge steps in pattern matching do not necessarily mean big steps in the others.
November 25, 2025 at 8:34 PM
The lack of awareness of the relationships (and conflation) between pattern matching, reasoning, intelligence and possible consciousness in the discourse around AI is really annoying. Huge steps in pattern matching do not necessarily mean big steps in the others.
Reposted by Rob Cyran
Some very good arguments here but there's also a KISS question here: "Why should a company consolidate an entity where it only owns a 20% stake?"
Seems like the operating versus financing lease distinction is more important than the consolidation of the entity, they're on much weaker ground there.
Seems like the operating versus financing lease distinction is more important than the consolidation of the entity, they're on much weaker ground there.
AI Meets Aggressive Accounting at Meta’s Gigantic New Data Center
Favorable treatment off the balance sheet hinges on some convenient assumptions.
www.wsj.com
November 24, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Some very good arguments here but there's also a KISS question here: "Why should a company consolidate an entity where it only owns a 20% stake?"
Seems like the operating versus financing lease distinction is more important than the consolidation of the entity, they're on much weaker ground there.
Seems like the operating versus financing lease distinction is more important than the consolidation of the entity, they're on much weaker ground there.
Reposted by Rob Cyran
In this tough and moving essay, Caroline Kennedy's 35-year-old daughter Tatiana Schlossberg reveals that she is terminally ill with leukemia. She has some choice words about how her cousin Bobby has made the limited time she has left worse. www.newyorker.com/culture/the-...
A Battle with My Blood
When I was diagnosed with leukemia, my first thought was that this couldn’t be happening to me, to my family.
www.newyorker.com
November 22, 2025 at 3:31 PM
In this tough and moving essay, Caroline Kennedy's 35-year-old daughter Tatiana Schlossberg reveals that she is terminally ill with leukemia. She has some choice words about how her cousin Bobby has made the limited time she has left worse. www.newyorker.com/culture/the-...
This is an awesome interview on multiple technologies coming together. People simply do not get how the fossil fuel companies are utterly hosed because of this.
Today on Volts: the subset of cleantech known as "electrotech" -- solar, batteries, heat pumps, etc. -- is marching toward inevitable victory, not because it's low-emissions (though it is), but because it's more efficient & cheaper. I discuss the good news with @kingsmillbond.bsky.social.
Clean electrification is inevitable
Kingsmill Bond explains why the global march of "electrotech" has moved beyond the reach of US political interference.
www.volts.wtf
November 22, 2025 at 8:10 PM
This is an awesome interview on multiple technologies coming together. People simply do not get how the fossil fuel companies are utterly hosed because of this.
RFK voice: “Our precious bodily fluids”
November 22, 2025 at 1:10 PM
RFK voice: “Our precious bodily fluids”
It’s 615 AM and WTF did I just read about RFK
November 22, 2025 at 11:17 AM
It’s 615 AM and WTF did I just read about RFK
Shocked face when I check what day is options expiration day.
*TRUMP TEAM INTERNALLY FLOATS SELLING NVIDIA H200 CHIPS TO CHINA
November 21, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Shocked face when I check what day is options expiration day.
Just having a conversation with colleagues over whether it was Trump threatening to execute lawmakers or something else that caused the market to sell off. Answer = unclear, which is deeply funny for dark humor fans.
November 20, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Just having a conversation with colleagues over whether it was Trump threatening to execute lawmakers or something else that caused the market to sell off. Answer = unclear, which is deeply funny for dark humor fans.
Reposted by Rob Cyran
This is notable: traditional flu vaccines generate modest T-cell immunity. The more robust cellular responses seen here could matter for durability and breadth of protection, especially in drift-heavy years.
November 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
This is notable: traditional flu vaccines generate modest T-cell immunity. The more robust cellular responses seen here could matter for durability and breadth of protection, especially in drift-heavy years.
Reposted by Rob Cyran
The primary question:
Can an mRNA flu vaccine match or outperform our current vaccines at preventing lab-confirmed influenza illness?
The answer is an emphatic yes. Look at the separation of those curves
Can an mRNA flu vaccine match or outperform our current vaccines at preventing lab-confirmed influenza illness?
The answer is an emphatic yes. Look at the separation of those curves
November 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
The primary question:
Can an mRNA flu vaccine match or outperform our current vaccines at preventing lab-confirmed influenza illness?
The answer is an emphatic yes. Look at the separation of those curves
Can an mRNA flu vaccine match or outperform our current vaccines at preventing lab-confirmed influenza illness?
The answer is an emphatic yes. Look at the separation of those curves
Me on Nvidia, and the highly cyclical nature of corporate venture capital.
Nvidia’s fantastic rise triggers VC hubris signal - tinyurl.com/mpppydt6 - @robcyran.bsky.social
November 20, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Me on Nvidia, and the highly cyclical nature of corporate venture capital.
Reposted by Rob Cyran
chat wtf
November 18, 2025 at 5:13 AM
chat wtf
Given how many hedge funds are named after places on Nantucket, this morning’s image is a pretty important portent from the market gods.
November 19, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Given how many hedge funds are named after places on Nantucket, this morning’s image is a pretty important portent from the market gods.
This is not good - vaccine mismatch means a lot of people are probably going to die from flu. I know people stopped caring about Moderna a while ago, but faster production timelines with mRNA means you can minimize mismatch. FDA approval for Moderna flu vax not until next season however.
A vaccine-mismatched flu A(H3N2) variant (subclade K) drifted away from prior variants in the Southern Hemisphere (2025) and will likely dominate in the Northern Hemisphere 2025–26. Vaccines may still help, but planning for a worsened flu season and close monitoring is needed
Emergence of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) variants with immune escape potential warrants enhanced molecular and epidemiological surveillance for the 2025–2026 season | Journal of the Association of Medi...
Background: All of the major antigenic changes in influenza A(H3N2) viruses since 1968 have involved mutations at just nine amino acid positions, called cluster transition sites, surrounding the recep...
utppublishing.com
November 18, 2025 at 4:15 PM
This is not good - vaccine mismatch means a lot of people are probably going to die from flu. I know people stopped caring about Moderna a while ago, but faster production timelines with mRNA means you can minimize mismatch. FDA approval for Moderna flu vax not until next season however.
Reposted by Rob Cyran
One good thing about Cloudflare being down has been the resurgence of community through spoken word story telling, communal singing, and ritual sacrifice.
November 18, 2025 at 2:39 PM
One good thing about Cloudflare being down has been the resurgence of community through spoken word story telling, communal singing, and ritual sacrifice.
Training set composed entirely of Hallmark and Hieronymus Bosch
This mural has gone up in Kingston, ostensibly for Christmas but AI has ensured it's actually to celebrate the return of our dark lord Cthulhu
November 18, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Training set composed entirely of Hallmark and Hieronymus Bosch
Absolutely wild there’s a reasonable chance Wegovy will be shown to be an Alzheimer’s modifying therapy within the next few weeks and the drug’s cost keeps going down.
*NOVO UNDERCUTS LILLY’S OBESITY DRUG PRICE FOR CASH-PAY PATIENTS
*NOVO NORDISK TO SELL WEGOVY, OZEMPIC FOR $349/MONTH IN US
*NOVO SAYS LOWER US PRICES TO HELP COUNTER COPYCAT THREAT
*NOVO NORDISK TO SELL WEGOVY, OZEMPIC FOR $349/MONTH IN US
*NOVO SAYS LOWER US PRICES TO HELP COUNTER COPYCAT THREAT
November 17, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Absolutely wild there’s a reasonable chance Wegovy will be shown to be an Alzheimer’s modifying therapy within the next few weeks and the drug’s cost keeps going down.
Another autoimmune disease linked to infection by EBV (the cause of mono). The virus had already previously been linked to multiple sclerosis, now lupus. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Epstein-Barr virus reprograms autoreactive B cells as antigen-presenting cells in systemic lupus erythematosus
Epstein-Barr virus reprograms autoreactive B cells as antigen-presenting cells to promote pathogenic antinuclear T and B cell responses in lupus.
www.science.org
November 15, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Another autoimmune disease linked to infection by EBV (the cause of mono). The virus had already previously been linked to multiple sclerosis, now lupus. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Rob Cyran
Goodnight.
Margaret Bourke-White, Beach Accident, Coney Island, Brooklyn, 1951
Margaret Bourke-White, Beach Accident, Coney Island, Brooklyn, 1951
November 14, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Goodnight.
Margaret Bourke-White, Beach Accident, Coney Island, Brooklyn, 1951
Margaret Bourke-White, Beach Accident, Coney Island, Brooklyn, 1951
I don’t understand how Brit cooking is often overly exotic ingredients that don’t go together like “prawns and fennel-accented aubergine in spinal marrow sauce” but somehow every dessert is just “figgy pudding with caramel” and tastes divine.
November 12, 2025 at 11:36 PM
I don’t understand how Brit cooking is often overly exotic ingredients that don’t go together like “prawns and fennel-accented aubergine in spinal marrow sauce” but somehow every dessert is just “figgy pudding with caramel” and tastes divine.
China EV sales rising about 30% annually while Telsa's sales fall 36%. While the brand destruction is amusing, the company's loss of Chinese sales is more important for the company - they can't compete against big Chinese firms.
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
Tesla's China sales fall to 3-year low amid tepid demand
Tesla's sales in China dropped to 26,006 vehicles in October, their lowest in three years, as the U.S. electric vehicle maker struggles with tepid demand in the hyper-competitive market.
www.reuters.com
November 11, 2025 at 12:28 PM
China EV sales rising about 30% annually while Telsa's sales fall 36%. While the brand destruction is amusing, the company's loss of Chinese sales is more important for the company - they can't compete against big Chinese firms.
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
This is fascinating by Odzylko- JMW Turner, the famous British painter, was an early participant in risk free arb of government debt. The arb persisted for years, probably for the cultural belief that trading for small amounts was disreputable. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
J. M. W. Turner, a celebrated painter and unrecognized financial arbitrageur
J. M. W. Turner is famous for his achievements in graphic arts. What is not known is that he engaged in some pioneering market arbitrage, a profitable and risk-
papers.ssrn.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:09 PM
This is fascinating by Odzylko- JMW Turner, the famous British painter, was an early participant in risk free arb of government debt. The arb persisted for years, probably for the cultural belief that trading for small amounts was disreputable. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....