Joe Phillips
@polpsychjoe.bsky.social
Lecturer in Politics, Cardiff University. Political Psychology. Polarization. Political Communication.
Pinned
Joe Phillips
@polpsychjoe.bsky.social
· Nov 17
Hello new followers! For those I don't know yet, let me introduce myself:
- I'm an American working at Cardiff University
- My work focuses on animosity between political groups, misinformation, and support for democratic norms.
- I tend to be much more of a doomer than my empirical results warrant
- I'm an American working at Cardiff University
- My work focuses on animosity between political groups, misinformation, and support for democratic norms.
- I tend to be much more of a doomer than my empirical results warrant
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Motivated reasoning is a well-understood phenomenon - or is it?
In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns.
doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here is a 🧵
In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns.
doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here is a 🧵
Known Unknowns in Motivated Reasoning: A Closer Look at Three Open Questions
Motivated reasoning denotes the phenomenon that individuals are more likely to arrive at conclusions that they want to arrive at. Properly understanding this phenomenon requires at least three things:...
doi.org
December 8, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Motivated reasoning is a well-understood phenomenon - or is it?
In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns.
doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here is a 🧵
In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns.
doi.org/10.1525/coll...
Here is a 🧵
Reposted by Joe Phillips
The reason Russia was prepared to pay for Brexit becoming more and more obvious
Very good Substack from Minna👇
December 7, 2025 at 12:55 PM
The reason Russia was prepared to pay for Brexit becoming more and more obvious
Reposted by Joe Phillips
My dad abhors any negative comments about immigrants. Asked him recently why he’s so strong on it: ‘Because we’re always happy to take the rich and clever ones. Which means it’s not about disliking immigrants. It’s about disliking the poor and vulnerable. And that’s a bad human instinct.’
December 7, 2025 at 8:31 AM
My dad abhors any negative comments about immigrants. Asked him recently why he’s so strong on it: ‘Because we’re always happy to take the rich and clever ones. Which means it’s not about disliking immigrants. It’s about disliking the poor and vulnerable. And that’s a bad human instinct.’
You take that back! I am deeply proud of my McDonald award
"FIFA Peace Prize" has about the same level of value and cachet as "McDonalds Oceanic Exploration Award"
December 6, 2025 at 12:02 PM
You take that back! I am deeply proud of my McDonald award
Reposted by Joe Phillips
I am ratcheting down my social media, but let me just say that all European leaders except on the far Right should note that the U.S. now seeks regime change in their country; basically seeks to depose them. US strategy is to support the political forces that threaten liberal democracy in Europe.
Trump Administration Says Europe Faces ‘Civilizational Erasure’
www.nytimes.com
December 6, 2025 at 7:29 AM
I am ratcheting down my social media, but let me just say that all European leaders except on the far Right should note that the U.S. now seeks regime change in their country; basically seeks to depose them. US strategy is to support the political forces that threaten liberal democracy in Europe.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
🚨🚨 God #America, this is grim and a very stark wake-up call to European political ledaders on the (non) future of the "transatlantic alliance":
December 5, 2025 at 6:56 AM
🚨🚨 God #America, this is grim and a very stark wake-up call to European political ledaders on the (non) future of the "transatlantic alliance":
Reposted by Joe Phillips
The USPS posting a NINE BILLION DOLLAR LOSS!!! sounds terrible. Certainly worse than if you said "USPS costs thirty dollars per person per year" even though that means the same thing and more accurately describes a government service
December 5, 2025 at 1:31 PM
The USPS posting a NINE BILLION DOLLAR LOSS!!! sounds terrible. Certainly worse than if you said "USPS costs thirty dollars per person per year" even though that means the same thing and more accurately describes a government service
Reposted by Joe Phillips
This is what government censorship actually looks like: defunding entire fields, deporting researchers, and quite effectively chilling speech that helps people understand how our information systems are being exploited and calls out powerful people and platforms for their bullshit.
For the last decade, the pervasive spread of bullshit & manipulation of online platforms have been widely recognized societal concerns. Now non US citizens studying those subjects can be labeled “censors” & denied visas or deported from the US. Censorship, indeed. www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
December 4, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Holy shit.
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
December 4, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Holy shit.
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reposted by Joe Phillips
To iterate on Minna's latest point, opinion polls in Europe are terrible for Trump
Having this in mind, it is very much unclear if aligning with the US is a good political strategy for European far-right parties
1/3
Having this in mind, it is very much unclear if aligning with the US is a good political strategy for European far-right parties
1/3
December 5, 2025 at 1:58 PM
To iterate on Minna's latest point, opinion polls in Europe are terrible for Trump
Having this in mind, it is very much unclear if aligning with the US is a good political strategy for European far-right parties
1/3
Having this in mind, it is very much unclear if aligning with the US is a good political strategy for European far-right parties
1/3
Fair take. I think more acceptance of the value of survey experiments as a descriptive measuring tool will come with increased esteem for good descriptive work, which I’m sure all involved agree is indispensable for good causal work.
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
December 5, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Fair take. I think more acceptance of the value of survey experiments as a descriptive measuring tool will come with increased esteem for good descriptive work, which I’m sure all involved agree is indispensable for good causal work.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
As clear as it gets
Donald Trump is an enemy of Europe and of humanity.
Our leaders in Europe are forced to pretend otherwise for strategic reasons, but they all know it deep down
Our leaders in Europe are forced to pretend otherwise for strategic reasons, but they all know it deep down
December 5, 2025 at 4:52 PM
As clear as it gets
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Apparently fact-checking is now considered a threat to national security.
www.npr.org/2025/12/04/n...
www.npr.org/2025/12/04/n...
State Department to deny visas to fact checkers and others, citing 'censorship'
The order is focused on applicants for H-1B visas, which are frequently used by tech companies and is part of a campaign by the Trump administration against online content moderation.
www.npr.org
December 5, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Apparently fact-checking is now considered a threat to national security.
www.npr.org/2025/12/04/n...
www.npr.org/2025/12/04/n...
In going through old elections and public opinion surveys, it strikes me that the obsession with competition with Japan was so widely felt, and yet disappeared so quickly.
Throwback Thursday -- 1988 www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/...
December 5, 2025 at 1:00 AM
In going through old elections and public opinion surveys, it strikes me that the obsession with competition with Japan was so widely felt, and yet disappeared so quickly.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Simply amazing that the Supreme Court declared an end to legal race discrimination in the affirmative action case two years ago and now allows overt racism in both immigration arrests and redistricting.
Using race to help minorities? Bad. Using it to discriminate against them? Very, very good.
Using race to help minorities? Bad. Using it to discriminate against them? Very, very good.
BREAKING: Supreme Court GRANTS Texas request to restore redistricting maps
apparent 6-3 ruling with the liberals in dissent @courthousenews.bsky.social
apparent 6-3 ruling with the liberals in dissent @courthousenews.bsky.social
December 4, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Simply amazing that the Supreme Court declared an end to legal race discrimination in the affirmative action case two years ago and now allows overt racism in both immigration arrests and redistricting.
Using race to help minorities? Bad. Using it to discriminate against them? Very, very good.
Using race to help minorities? Bad. Using it to discriminate against them? Very, very good.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Democrats can retaliate against these GOP gerrymanders with new maps in Illinois, Maryland, Oregon, & Virginia.
They could flip 7 GOP seats to make up for this & new GOP maps in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, & possibly soon Indiana.
Imposing costs is the only way to deter the GOP from doing this
They could flip 7 GOP seats to make up for this & new GOP maps in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, & possibly soon Indiana.
Imposing costs is the only way to deter the GOP from doing this
December 5, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Democrats can retaliate against these GOP gerrymanders with new maps in Illinois, Maryland, Oregon, & Virginia.
They could flip 7 GOP seats to make up for this & new GOP maps in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, & possibly soon Indiana.
Imposing costs is the only way to deter the GOP from doing this
They could flip 7 GOP seats to make up for this & new GOP maps in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, & possibly soon Indiana.
Imposing costs is the only way to deter the GOP from doing this
Reposted by Joe Phillips
🚨 New in Nature+Science!🚨
AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp
🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK
🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks)
🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy
🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate
AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp
🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK
🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks)
🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy
🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate
December 4, 2025 at 8:43 PM
🚨 New in Nature+Science!🚨
AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp
🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK
🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks)
🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy
🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate
AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp
🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK
🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks)
🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy
🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate
Reposted by Joe Phillips
“If you believe the MAGA postliberal project is real, then liberalism must understand MAGA is not a reaction to economic consequences or “elite failures,” but an affirmative preference for illiberalism.
Liberalism must stop apologizing. Stop excusing. And fight.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/maga-and-l...
Liberalism must stop apologizing. Stop excusing. And fight.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/maga-and-l...
Liberals: Stop the Masochism
Why liberalism romanticizes the Forgotten Man and is reluctant to take its own side in the fight against authoritarianism.
www.thebulwark.com
December 3, 2025 at 7:17 PM
“If you believe the MAGA postliberal project is real, then liberalism must understand MAGA is not a reaction to economic consequences or “elite failures,” but an affirmative preference for illiberalism.
Liberalism must stop apologizing. Stop excusing. And fight.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/maga-and-l...
Liberalism must stop apologizing. Stop excusing. And fight.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/maga-and-l...
Reposted by Joe Phillips
🚨What are the political consequences of memory policy?
In a new paper @francescocolombo.bsky.social and I show that a public initiative to rename antisemitic streets in Berlin mobilized left voters, induced no backlash, and benefited left parties in the subsequent election.
osf.io/preprints/so...
In a new paper @francescocolombo.bsky.social and I show that a public initiative to rename antisemitic streets in Berlin mobilized left voters, induced no backlash, and benefited left parties in the subsequent election.
osf.io/preprints/so...
OSF
osf.io
December 3, 2025 at 10:30 AM
🚨What are the political consequences of memory policy?
In a new paper @francescocolombo.bsky.social and I show that a public initiative to rename antisemitic streets in Berlin mobilized left voters, induced no backlash, and benefited left parties in the subsequent election.
osf.io/preprints/so...
In a new paper @francescocolombo.bsky.social and I show that a public initiative to rename antisemitic streets in Berlin mobilized left voters, induced no backlash, and benefited left parties in the subsequent election.
osf.io/preprints/so...
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Lots of concern about ⬆️ of survey experiments as signal of “credible causal evidence”, but I’m genuinely curious: what’s the alternative if we study trends that happen rarely, are hard to measure, or lack data? Causality aside, seems like surveys and/or experiments are an incredibly useful tool?
New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf...
🧵
🧵
December 3, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Lots of concern about ⬆️ of survey experiments as signal of “credible causal evidence”, but I’m genuinely curious: what’s the alternative if we study trends that happen rarely, are hard to measure, or lack data? Causality aside, seems like surveys and/or experiments are an incredibly useful tool?
Reposted by Joe Phillips
Political scientists love their survey experiments.
December 2, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Political scientists love their survey experiments.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
🇸🇪 I am very happy to announce that my first article, based on my master's thesis, is now out in open access in Scandinavian Political Studies!
doi.org/10.1111/1467...
doi.org/10.1111/1467...
Gamson's Law in the City Hall: The Populist Radical Right and the Dilemma of Allocating Municipal Portfolios in Sweden
Does the proportional distribution of office payoffs between coalition partners, known as ‘Gamson's Law’, hold at the local level? And can the inclusion of a populist radical right (PRR) party in a c...
doi.org
November 25, 2025 at 7:51 AM
🇸🇪 I am very happy to announce that my first article, based on my master's thesis, is now out in open access in Scandinavian Political Studies!
doi.org/10.1111/1467...
doi.org/10.1111/1467...
Reposted by Joe Phillips
There just are a bunch of people who revel in ostentatious cruelty, this kinda comfy no-actual-risk-taken-on performance of toughness that really just consists in barbarous violence.
Fox’s Greg Gutfeld on double tap boat strike: “It's just better for us to kill them in the ocean, make them shark feed, be done with it”
December 3, 2025 at 7:35 AM
There just are a bunch of people who revel in ostentatious cruelty, this kinda comfy no-actual-risk-taken-on performance of toughness that really just consists in barbarous violence.
Reposted by Joe Phillips
A really nice figure of population and partisan malapportionment in national legislatures around the world
from Beramendi, Boix, Guinjoan, and Rogers (yassified by The Economist) priceschool.usc.edu/wp-content/u...
from Beramendi, Boix, Guinjoan, and Rogers (yassified by The Economist) priceschool.usc.edu/wp-content/u...
December 2, 2025 at 10:08 PM
A really nice figure of population and partisan malapportionment in national legislatures around the world
from Beramendi, Boix, Guinjoan, and Rogers (yassified by The Economist) priceschool.usc.edu/wp-content/u...
from Beramendi, Boix, Guinjoan, and Rogers (yassified by The Economist) priceschool.usc.edu/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Joe Phillips
S Africa 👑
A really nice figure of population and partisan malapportionment in national legislatures around the world
from Beramendi, Boix, Guinjoan, and Rogers (yassified by The Economist) priceschool.usc.edu/wp-content/u...
from Beramendi, Boix, Guinjoan, and Rogers (yassified by The Economist) priceschool.usc.edu/wp-content/u...
December 3, 2025 at 7:57 AM
S Africa 👑