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Marios Richards

@mariosrichards.bsky.social

1.8K followers 1.1K following 11K posts

Frequently wrong. Please correct (effort involved appreciated). Experiments with Data Visualisation: https://github.com/MariosRichards/BES_analysis_code https://medium.com/@mariosrichards https://mariosrichards.substack.com/

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 8h

I think you're right about DKs - as of this moment.

But I also don't think ceilings/floors are an actual thing - for the reason you allude, nothing magically guarantees that a political party can't crash and burn and voters won't leap on the pyre but move to their next best option.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 8h

"Go somewhere you don't want to go, it might maybe help perhaps?" is not really an argument.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 8h

Also, if they think something amazing can be achieved by participating on twitter ...

... nothing is stopping them from doing it and displaying the evidence.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 8h

Just like we live in representative democracies but don't seem to have any conceptual language to talk about that other "mor democrisy?" in relative to a system - direct democracy - which we don't live in, similarly the only discourse about media is "mor fri spich?".

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 8h

How you structure your media will *always* have effects which will never neatly divide into "ah, this is legitimate, letting people reflect the truth that was always inside them" vs "ah, this illegitimate, an idea forced on them from outside ... by wiles".

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 8h

Part of the problem is that we barely even have a language to frame this in.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 8h

It certainly shows there *An Effect*.

But Effects aren't automatically illegitimate. Does the presence or absence of magazines that talk about homsexuality as a normal thing impact how people identify?

Let's say it does - is that a legitimate or illegitimate media effect?

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 8h

In general, the problem with talking about "Media Effects" is that it tends to presuppose a "No Media Scenario".

It's like when people say "I hate all this politics, can't we Get Good Stuff Done" you're inevitably left thinking what in the world "no politics" means, even just conceptually.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 8h

Remember, to say that something is "marginalised" is a loaded term - as in, you need some pre-existing theory of "what media would look like without that intervention".

It's not really obvious *even now* what that would that mean - it definitely wasn't obvious in the 1970s.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 8h

Well, media owners who personally lived through WWII.

Until relatively recently, media ownership was a prestige acquisition with chonky margins.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

Shipman was being as partisan/lazy as people who looked at the 2017 result and then argued "Corbyn will simply continue this trend".

You didn't need to be a superforcaster to figure out the chances that Conservative support would Rise/Continue As A Flat Line/Fall.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

That obv isn't something you can separate from "policy" any more than "but Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?".

It's not like he *otherwise* left the Conservative Party on course for victory after stepping do- being stepped down.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

Waaay too generous!

His stupidity and arrogance was a well-known and well-discussed quantity - e.g. by Conservative MPs in 2019 and for years beforehand.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

To be clear, I'm not accusing the guy of having of unstated clever plan.

Chances are good that he's saying exactly what he's thinking and the logical holes are a direct result of Politics Brain (4 x 7 *just must* be 32 - it's the answer that annoys all the right people in my party!).

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

... the very last thing you'd want to do is to say that publicly because, by that logic, that means the result will probably turn on whether the Conservatives keep 16% or keep 14%.

If that was really what you believed - and you're numerate - you'd want to do everything possible to boost the Cons!

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

Also ... if you think the next general election will be a face between Labour and Reform and the result will turn on seats where Lab-Ref challenge each other ...

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

And it ignores people lost to non-voting - which doesn't generally signify "I'm a tactical voter, forget about me and carry on".

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

It also assumes that Labour will be the beneficiary of anti-Reform tactical voting - but that all hangs on being the most popular option among left parties in constituencies.

That is ... highly inconsistent with taking a publicly dismissive attitude to those voters!

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

The argument that that will all just reverse because 'tactical voting' ... is a far bolder position than even campaigners for tactical voting make!

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 10h

The polls show very Labour voters have been tempted to vote Reform (either in current VI shifts/future plausible VI shifts) but lots of voters have exited for non-voting/to LDs/Greens.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 11h

But the one doesn't follow from the other.

Not as a point of ideology - just mathematically.

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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 11h

If he wants the public to hear, he'll have to be louder and clearer - even people who voted Green in 2024 are iffy about this!

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 11h

Which is fine - I couldn't care less what politicians say to their parties to get into office (so long as they can keep them onboard) but it's still too much of a compromise formulation to reach the public.

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 11h

bylinetimes.com/2025/05/08/g...

In the leadership election he ran hard in favour of "Let's reverse policy (again) and leave NATO"

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home...

However, after winning he's pivoted back towards "turns out that's unrealistic, let's stick with the policy but have discussions"

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bylinetimes.com

Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 11h

That said, the US under Trump turning on NATO is a golden opportunity for a reposition in favour of a NATO implicitly cut free from the US.

What are dissident Greens going to do? Come out loudly in favour of Trump's position?