Marios Richards
@mariosrichards.bsky.social
Frequently wrong. Please correct (effort involved appreciated).
Experiments with Data Visualisation:
https://github.com/MariosRichards/BES_analysis_code
https://medium.com/@mariosrichards
https://mariosrichards.substack.com/
Experiments with Data Visualisation:
https://github.com/MariosRichards/BES_analysis_code
https://medium.com/@mariosrichards
https://mariosrichards.substack.com/
Like this, but made of lanyards.
November 23, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Like this, but made of lanyards.
Like, the mathematical structure and implications of the Median Voter Theorem stand up ... what falls apart on inspection is the model of politics/candidate selection that assumes it's about Issues first and abstract Ideology second/only as an indirect effect.
November 21, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Like, the mathematical structure and implications of the Median Voter Theorem stand up ... what falls apart on inspection is the model of politics/candidate selection that assumes it's about Issues first and abstract Ideology second/only as an indirect effect.
A system can suffer 'major stresses' while delivering almost nothing at all if it's sufficiently neglected/incompetently managed.
I don't think we *start* from the assumption that UK infrastructure provision is basically running at the limit of what is possible/ought to be expected.
I don't think we *start* from the assumption that UK infrastructure provision is basically running at the limit of what is possible/ought to be expected.
November 18, 2025 at 8:49 PM
A system can suffer 'major stresses' while delivering almost nothing at all if it's sufficiently neglected/incompetently managed.
I don't think we *start* from the assumption that UK infrastructure provision is basically running at the limit of what is possible/ought to be expected.
I don't think we *start* from the assumption that UK infrastructure provision is basically running at the limit of what is possible/ought to be expected.
What's great about DS9 - and what doesn't need to be defended - is that it leans into it.
The worst invocation of stereotypes in sf series is when they appear only briefly - ST:TNG Ferengi - or this TNG episode:
The worst invocation of stereotypes in sf series is when they appear only briefly - ST:TNG Ferengi - or this TNG episode:
November 18, 2025 at 2:27 PM
What's great about DS9 - and what doesn't need to be defended - is that it leans into it.
The worst invocation of stereotypes in sf series is when they appear only briefly - ST:TNG Ferengi - or this TNG episode:
The worst invocation of stereotypes in sf series is when they appear only briefly - ST:TNG Ferengi - or this TNG episode:
The only time I ever found it jarring was the "Logic Extremists" Vulcans who were desperate to "Vexit the Federation".
Man, where did those writers writing in late 2016/early 2017 get their ideas?
Man, where did those writers writing in late 2016/early 2017 get their ideas?
November 18, 2025 at 12:58 PM
The only time I ever found it jarring was the "Logic Extremists" Vulcans who were desperate to "Vexit the Federation".
Man, where did those writers writing in late 2016/early 2017 get their ideas?
Man, where did those writers writing in late 2016/early 2017 get their ideas?
The flipside of nearly hitting 50% as a party family post-war is being John Hurt when the post-war taboo wears off.
November 16, 2025 at 2:18 PM
The flipside of nearly hitting 50% as a party family post-war is being John Hurt when the post-war taboo wears off.
In their defence, that *was* the job of the Centre Right since WWII - constrain and contain the electorate who destroyed liberal democracy, brought about WWII and enacted the Holocaust.
November 16, 2025 at 2:18 PM
In their defence, that *was* the job of the Centre Right since WWII - constrain and contain the electorate who destroyed liberal democracy, brought about WWII and enacted the Holocaust.
When I saw the breakdown by 'constituency mean values' I was WTF ... until I read forward and realised it was a setup for why this is really dumb.
I feel like anyone who looks directly at data at all is 100% aware that geography is, at best, a small marginal effect on everything else.
I feel like anyone who looks directly at data at all is 100% aware that geography is, at best, a small marginal effect on everything else.
November 12, 2025 at 1:54 PM
When I saw the breakdown by 'constituency mean values' I was WTF ... until I read forward and realised it was a setup for why this is really dumb.
I feel like anyone who looks directly at data at all is 100% aware that geography is, at best, a small marginal effect on everything else.
I feel like anyone who looks directly at data at all is 100% aware that geography is, at best, a small marginal effect on everything else.
We have cash, clicks and political parties investing heavily in Immigrants As A Threat, domestically and internationally.
And on the other side ... we have a few tiny pots of research funding and a whole lot of bystander effect.
(not wholly without reason - the LT trend has been cons. liberal)
And on the other side ... we have a few tiny pots of research funding and a whole lot of bystander effect.
(not wholly without reason - the LT trend has been cons. liberal)
November 12, 2025 at 1:08 PM
We have cash, clicks and political parties investing heavily in Immigrants As A Threat, domestically and internationally.
And on the other side ... we have a few tiny pots of research funding and a whole lot of bystander effect.
(not wholly without reason - the LT trend has been cons. liberal)
And on the other side ... we have a few tiny pots of research funding and a whole lot of bystander effect.
(not wholly without reason - the LT trend has been cons. liberal)
However, after the 2024GE, Labour's support profile dropped specifically from it's Ec Left flank.
November 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM
However, after the 2024GE, Labour's support profile dropped specifically from it's Ec Left flank.
This is from before the 2024GE and is more or less typical of party positions (LDs are most mobile).
November 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM
This is from before the 2024GE and is more or less typical of party positions (LDs are most mobile).
(BES, wave 30 - May 2025 - demo weighted)
selfUSTies=
"Some people think Britain should have much closer economic ties with the United States(0), while other people think that Britain should protect its independence from the United States(10)? What do you think?"
selfUSTies=
"Some people think Britain should have much closer economic ties with the United States(0), while other people think that Britain should protect its independence from the United States(10)? What do you think?"
November 11, 2025 at 12:49 PM
(BES, wave 30 - May 2025 - demo weighted)
selfUSTies=
"Some people think Britain should have much closer economic ties with the United States(0), while other people think that Britain should protect its independence from the United States(10)? What do you think?"
selfUSTies=
"Some people think Britain should have much closer economic ties with the United States(0), while other people think that Britain should protect its independence from the United States(10)? What do you think?"
Only the economic benefits of publicly appeasing Trump are the least reliable and the public is *waaaay* more negative about Trump than immigration.
November 11, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Only the economic benefits of publicly appeasing Trump are the least reliable and the public is *waaaay* more negative about Trump than immigration.
Actually quite an unusually weak effect for *any* trust measure by left-right self placement (at least, as found in BES data).
November 10, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Actually quite an unusually weak effect for *any* trust measure by left-right self placement (at least, as found in BES data).
Notably, Labour's support base (political compass plane of 'like Labour') doesn't move *positionally* 92-97 and is the furthest 'left' in the dataset - they're just dramatically more popular (c3=valence/everyone-like-more)
November 8, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Notably, Labour's support base (political compass plane of 'like Labour') doesn't move *positionally* 92-97 and is the furthest 'left' in the dataset - they're just dramatically more popular (c3=valence/everyone-like-more)
In theory, it could mean anything at all. In practice, this is what answers to it correlated with for @britishelectionstudy.com respondents in the pre-2024GE wave.
(right-coded, but an even stronger emphasis on oppositition to secessionist parties)
(right-coded, but an even stronger emphasis on oppositition to secessionist parties)
November 7, 2025 at 1:44 PM
In theory, it could mean anything at all. In practice, this is what answers to it correlated with for @britishelectionstudy.com respondents in the pre-2024GE wave.
(right-coded, but an even stronger emphasis on oppositition to secessionist parties)
(right-coded, but an even stronger emphasis on oppositition to secessionist parties)
P.S. I was surprised to find the support profile of the UK 1997 Referendum Party is actually more like the BNP than UKIP - I'd have pegged it as an obvious forerunner of a 'centre-right/extreme-right' beachhead party because of its clear centre-right origin under Goldsmith.
November 7, 2025 at 1:04 PM
P.S. I was surprised to find the support profile of the UK 1997 Referendum Party is actually more like the BNP than UKIP - I'd have pegged it as an obvious forerunner of a 'centre-right/extreme-right' beachhead party because of its clear centre-right origin under Goldsmith.
Tell me if you don't want this linked and I'll delete, but for the convenience of non-academics, here's an ungated link:
strathprints.strath.ac.uk/60852/1/Widf...
strathprints.strath.ac.uk/60852/1/Widf...
November 7, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Tell me if you don't want this linked and I'll delete, but for the convenience of non-academics, here's an ungated link:
strathprints.strath.ac.uk/60852/1/Widf...
strathprints.strath.ac.uk/60852/1/Widf...
I think it's also understated how much it matters what is happening in other democratic countries.
Suppression of the Radical Right - and the dramatic swelling of the Centre Right - began with hanging people from lampposts.
Suppression of the Radical Right - and the dramatic swelling of the Centre Right - began with hanging people from lampposts.
November 7, 2025 at 10:32 AM
I think it's also understated how much it matters what is happening in other democratic countries.
Suppression of the Radical Right - and the dramatic swelling of the Centre Right - began with hanging people from lampposts.
Suppression of the Radical Right - and the dramatic swelling of the Centre Right - began with hanging people from lampposts.
So the interesting thing is that the Conservative coalition - where their support among the electorate is - hasn't actually moved that much (political compass angle) over the last couple of decades (or, I think, much before that during full-franchise).
November 7, 2025 at 10:32 AM
So the interesting thing is that the Conservative coalition - where their support among the electorate is - hasn't actually moved that much (political compass angle) over the last couple of decades (or, I think, much before that during full-franchise).
November 7, 2025 at 2:17 AM
So the whole "I would simply do the thing that Maximises Voteshare" boils down to "The Party should try to be Generally More Popular" ['c3' in the chart because I like bland naming conventions].
Which is at least honestly trivial (note that this has no obvious relation with party position)
Which is at least honestly trivial (note that this has no obvious relation with party position)
November 6, 2025 at 4:59 PM
So the whole "I would simply do the thing that Maximises Voteshare" boils down to "The Party should try to be Generally More Popular" ['c3' in the chart because I like bland naming conventions].
Which is at least honestly trivial (note that this has no obvious relation with party position)
Which is at least honestly trivial (note that this has no obvious relation with party position)
Raw distribution for warmRomanians.
Pronounced quarter-point spikes and a midpoint-DK - but overall *much* smoother than 10/11 pt scales (*nobody* seems to want to say they are 9/10 for a political party).
Pronounced quarter-point spikes and a midpoint-DK - but overall *much* smoother than 10/11 pt scales (*nobody* seems to want to say they are 9/10 for a political party).
November 4, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Raw distribution for warmRomanians.
Pronounced quarter-point spikes and a midpoint-DK - but overall *much* smoother than 10/11 pt scales (*nobody* seems to want to say they are 9/10 for a political party).
Pronounced quarter-point spikes and a midpoint-DK - but overall *much* smoother than 10/11 pt scales (*nobody* seems to want to say they are 9/10 for a political party).