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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 23h

In general they pore over the data & draw their conclusions from it. There are inevitably areas of disagreement, uncertainty, choice of boundaries, etc, but I suggest most are doing an intellectually challenging job with care & diligence. Thankfully science is broadly apolitical, unlike mitigation.

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks for your support.

Attached was my reply; though no doubt his ad hominem attacks will continue.

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 1d

I typically turn to @robinlamboll.bsky.social for solid insight into the remaining carbon budgets. Robin takes a careful, unbiased approach to the climate science and communicates it clearly. That said, he will no doubt be swamped with work, so may not be able to reply directly to your post.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 1d

That's fate. Things can't go on as they are.

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 1d

It seems what you are saying is that distance will increasingly have consequences for those who don't take it into account in their life planning. That seems a fair read of the climate situation.

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Barry McMullin @autofac.bsky.social · 1d

It's a huge literature: but this is a good entry point: "Is Green Growth Possible?"
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Is Green Growth Possible?

The notion of green growth has emerged as a dominant policy response to climate change and ecological breakdown. Green growth theory asserts that continued economic expansion is compatible with our...

www.tandfonline.com

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 1d

Who am I “sponsored by"?

I work ~35–40 hours a week for an annual pre-tax salary of £27k from the University of Manchester. I take no income from consultancy, legal work, or writing - & often cover my own travel costs. No paid side gigs. No corporate largesse. Independence matters.

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Brett Christophers @brettchristophers.bsky.social · 1d

"optimistic & upbeat claptrap that typically masquerades as reasoned debate"

good description of the vast bulk of mainstream climate literature, that

Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 1d

The hard numbers do paint a very different picture to the optimistic & upbeat claptrap that typically masquerades as reasoned debate. I made the point about 2°C & Covid in climateuncensored.com/talk-at-the-... - though used the 7% figure there which is from the start of 2025 (rather than 2026).

Talk at the Tyndall Centre Conference: Our Critical Decade for Climate Action - Climate Uncensored

Venue: UEA. 8th September 2025

climateuncensored.com

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 1d

The hard numbers do paint a very different picture to the optimistic & upbeat claptrap that typically masquerades as reasoned debate. I made the point about 2°C & Covid in climateuncensored.com/talk-at-the-... - though used the 7% figure there which is from the start of 2025 (rather than 2026).

Talk at the Tyndall Centre Conference: Our Critical Decade for Climate Action - Climate Uncensored

Venue: UEA. 8th September 2025

climateuncensored.com

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 1d

I see context as being critical here. In isolation, news is neither good nor bad; such judgments require context.

Often, context is deliberately omitted by those trying to promote a particular viewpoint or agenda, that is, by those who prefer to mislead rather than inform the debate.

Ben Johnson @benjgeo.bsky.social · 1d

Feel massively conflicted about telling "good news" stories about climate tbh. Renewables surpassing coal for electricity is amazing, but it's not nearly enough.

Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 2d

Short comment on 'carbon trading' climateuncensored.com/what-role-fo...

Paris 1.5°C needs >20% cuts in global emissions every year - starting now!
For Paris 2°C, it’s ~8%.
Which country/company/institution can exceed these rates?
Only those that do have any real “emission space” for carbon trading.

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Ben Johnson @benjgeo.bsky.social · 1d

Feel massively conflicted about telling "good news" stories about climate tbh. Renewables surpassing coal for electricity is amazing, but it's not nearly enough.

Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 2d

Short comment on 'carbon trading' climateuncensored.com/what-role-fo...

Paris 1.5°C needs >20% cuts in global emissions every year - starting now!
For Paris 2°C, it’s ~8%.
Which country/company/institution can exceed these rates?
Only those that do have any real “emission space” for carbon trading.

What role for carbon trading? - Climate Uncensored

I was recently contacted by a senior civil servant who asked me to provide a short comment on the concept of emissions trading schemes in general, and on the

climateuncensored.com

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Brett Christophers @brettchristophers.bsky.social · 1d

When you see the cold numbers -- 8% cuts in emissions needed per year, every year, from now -- it's clear that even 2° is a fantasy

(Emissions only fell 5% during covid, when much of the world economy shut down)

Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 2d

Short comment on 'carbon trading' climateuncensored.com/what-role-fo...

Paris 1.5°C needs >20% cuts in global emissions every year - starting now!
For Paris 2°C, it’s ~8%.
Which country/company/institution can exceed these rates?
Only those that do have any real “emission space” for carbon trading.

What role for carbon trading? - Climate Uncensored

I was recently contacted by a senior civil servant who asked me to provide a short comment on the concept of emissions trading schemes in general, and on the

climateuncensored.com

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 2d

Short comment on 'carbon trading' climateuncensored.com/what-role-fo...

Paris 1.5°C needs >20% cuts in global emissions every year - starting now!
For Paris 2°C, it’s ~8%.
Which country/company/institution can exceed these rates?
Only those that do have any real “emission space” for carbon trading.

What role for carbon trading? - Climate Uncensored

I was recently contacted by a senior civil servant who asked me to provide a short comment on the concept of emissions trading schemes in general, and on the

climateuncensored.com

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 2d

Haven't flown since 2004 ... so not sure of your point?

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 5d

See 👆 — Conclusion on aviation: "Rather than gambling on future breakthroughs that may never materialise, policymakers should pursue immediate demand-reduction strategies & support a just transition …"

@kevinclimate.bsky.social @stucap.bsky.social @cityatlas.bsky.social @parkewilde.bsky.social

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RadReduction (Larry Edwards) @radreduction.bsky.social · 5d

Just published, in Journal of the Academy of Social Sciences:

"Flight from reality: sustainable aviation, Jet Zero, and the technofix"

Open access:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Screen shot:

Flight from reality: sustainable aviation, Jet Zero, and the
technofix

Gareth Dale, Josh Moos and Alistair Bernal Holmes

ABSTRACT

This paper argues that rising aviation emissions, which are disproportionally driven by the wealthy, pose a serious threat to climate goals. Using the UK’s Jet Zero strategy as a case study, it explores how policymakers and industry promote speculative technologies—efficiency gains, electric and hydrogen aircraft, sustainable aviation fuels, carbon capture, and offsetting—to justify continued aviation growth. We critically assess these claims: electric aircraft are limited to short routes; hydrogen faces major storage and infrastructure barriers, and green hydrogen remains scarce. SAFs, often derived from land-intensive crops, risk deforestation, biodiversity loss, and higher net emissions. Second generation SAFs, such as used cooking oil, are scarce, and power-to-liquid is speculative and prohibitively expensive. Carbon capture is unproven at scale, and offsetting enables airlines to claim reductions without cutting actual emissions. These “solutions” align with a political agenda that prioritises economic growth and airport expansion. We argue that this techno-optimism delays real action. Rather than gambling on future breakthroughs that may never materialise, policymakers should pursue immediate demand-reduction strategies and support a just transition—ending frequent-flyer incentives, shifting short-haul flights to rail, removing aviation fuel subsidies, and retraining workers for low-carbon sectors.

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 5d

See: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... - also points to a wealth of other literatures that demonstrate the frequent flyer issue.

You mentioned Stanstead - checkout: www.caa.co.uk/media/fyum5p... -note mean household income in 2018 was -£34k. Also Stansted & Luton are not typical of UK airports.

How socially just are taxes on air travel and ‘frequent flyer levies’?

Policies to reduce air travel demand, including in the tourism sector, are urgently required as air travel’s climate impact keeps growing while low-carbon aviation remains a distant perspective. Po...

www.tandfonline.com

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 5d

So is climate change. The choice of our leaders & us wealthy hi-emitters to ignore the evidence & continue to live & promote our hi-CO2 & hi-consumption norms has left society in this almost impossible position. We now need profound & fair changes that us wealthy hi-emitters are unwilling to accept.

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 5d

This still doesn’t really answer the question: are below-average-income EU citizens truly the ones driving frequent flyer numbers? Or is frequent flying largely concentrated among a relatively affluent minority? The data suggests the latter - and significantly so.

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 5d

I wasn’t primarily talking about millionaires, but rather the wealthy socio-economic groups within which significant numbers have normalised frequent flying, often alongside other forms of high consumption - from energy to materials & labour. Piketty et al also addressed wider socio-economic groups.

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 5d

As you note, you regularly take budget flights. Do you know if those you see are frequent flyers, or are the “3 million” mostly flying occasionally & it adds up to a lot of flights overall? There are alternatives to flying in the EU, certainly not so easy, but neither is living with climate impacts.

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 5d

Do you have any evidence for that being the case in the UK? Ok, I’m sure they’ll be a few, maybe even a few hundreds, but millions of below average income citizens being frequent flyers? Also ‘family life’ is exactly one of the reasons we need to rapidly curtail aviation - as fairly as possible.

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 5d

Be interesting to hear Prof David Lee’s (MMU) view on this. I got the impression it was much more challenging than simply changing altitude? Typically lowered altitude means denser air & hence more fuel & CO2. So swaps short-lived v.high warming contrails & cirrus for lower warming v.long lived CO2?

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Mike K @k-mike.bsky.social · 5d

It'd be interesting to read a paper that supports your frequent flyer assertion

Anecdotally, as an xFrequent flyer for work and hols (80's/90's) I took a minimal number of flights to see family

15% take 70% of all UK flights
≈80% of the world's population has never flown

shorturl.at/74fTp

Trends in air travel inequality in the UK: From the few to the many?

Aviation is responsible for at least 3.5% of global warming, and demand is predicted to rise rapidly over the next few decades. To reverse this trend,…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 5d

Attached is a suggestion I made several years ago. It would need to be part of a broader package, including eliminating first & business class, & ensuring even the first flight incurs the same tax & carbon costs as other fuels do. Aviation remains heavily dependent on its highly privileged status

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 5d

If we're serious about aligning aviation with even a weak interpretation of Paris, frequent flyer levies must rise geometrically, as your data suggests. Modest increases won't cut it, we need steep, immediate reductions in flight numbers & that means prices frequent flyers simply can’t afford.

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Mike K @k-mike.bsky.social · 7d

Flying is the fastest fun way to burn the planet
A #FrequentFlyerLevy is an easy fix

1st flight= normal price
2nd= 2×
3rd= 4×
4th= 8×
5th= 16x
6th= 32x
7th= 64x
..and so on

An incentive not to fly would round this off
A simple fair fix for privileged emissions
Credit: @kevinclimate.bsky.social

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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 8d

7/ A crucial paper by Isak Stoddard, @kevinclimate.bsky.social, @stuartjritchie.bsky.social @wimcarton.bsky.social et al. stress that a key reason for past climate inaction is a lack of sufficient societal action on carbon reduction is the 'scarcity of plausible imaginaries'.

Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve?

Despite three decades of political efforts and a wealth of research on the causes and catastrophic impacts of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise and are 60% higher ...

www.annualreviews.org

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Aarne Granlund @aarnegranlund.bsky.social · 8d

I think it's both: carmakers produce SUVs, and middle- to upper-class people buy them; elites have car collections. High-level politicians fly frequently, but they also believe that airport enlargement and incoming overtourism 'grow the economy' - it's both systemic and personal.

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Kevin Anderson @kevinclimate.bsky.social · 10d

Isn’t how much this hi-income decile group use the transport system (ie. they choose to travel a lot & choose to do so via faster means) as important as the system itself? In so many areas, differences in demand between groups is as important as the supply system itself.

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