Josh Huder
@joshhuder.bsky.social
Political scientist posting mostly about Congress. Senior Fellow at The Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, McCourt School of Public Policy.
Reposted by Josh Huder
Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.
November 10, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.
Democrats over-performed during the shutdown, polled well, and won elections. However, an ACA deal, nuclear Senate, or impoundment rules were a big stretch, at best, and mostly not feasible.
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
November 10, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Democrats over-performed during the shutdown, polled well, and won elections. However, an ACA deal, nuclear Senate, or impoundment rules were a big stretch, at best, and mostly not feasible.
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
An Entirely too-early Assessment of the Senate Shutdown Deal/Vote
Democrats may have over-performed on policy and underperformed on politics.
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:46 PM
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
Are Democrats supposed to keep the government closed forever? A minority party cannot force the majority to act responsibly.
seems to me that those democrats inclined not to fight perceive themselves as living through a somewhat ordinary cycle of presidential overreach and backlash and not something much more significant and dangerous
November 10, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Are Democrats supposed to keep the government closed forever? A minority party cannot force the majority to act responsibly.
No party that ever started a shutdown won it. It's a little shocking how many people genuinely believed Dems could win policy concessions.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
MSNBC reported Schumer's office felt that the longer that shutdown went on, the more likely it was that people would start to blame the Dems.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
November 10, 2025 at 1:28 PM
No party that ever started a shutdown won it. It's a little shocking how many people genuinely believed Dems could win policy concessions.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Leaders don't have this kind of power. They do not direct senators' votes. They can pressure or persuade but this notion Schumer can block senators from breaking ranks is pure myth.
The coordinated nature of this—none are facing voters in 2026—means that either Schumer approved it or failed in his job as Senate Majority Leader to stop it.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
so currently defectors are:
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
November 10, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Leaders don't have this kind of power. They do not direct senators' votes. They can pressure or persuade but this notion Schumer can block senators from breaking ranks is pure myth.
Republicans won't nuke the filibuster because they don't want to vote much (most?) of Trump's agenda. Why go on the record about unpopular policies when you can silently kill them instead?
November 10, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Republicans won't nuke the filibuster because they don't want to vote much (most?) of Trump's agenda. Why go on the record about unpopular policies when you can silently kill them instead?
Look, Pelosi was a great leader but that included a ruthless streak that mired numerous political careers to stay on top for over 20 years and in office for almost 40.
If you want members genuinely enabling the next generation, write about Ed Perlmutter or Charlie Dent.
If you want members genuinely enabling the next generation, write about Ed Perlmutter or Charlie Dent.
November 7, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Look, Pelosi was a great leader but that included a ruthless streak that mired numerous political careers to stay on top for over 20 years and in office for almost 40.
If you want members genuinely enabling the next generation, write about Ed Perlmutter or Charlie Dent.
If you want members genuinely enabling the next generation, write about Ed Perlmutter or Charlie Dent.
When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
Speaker Nancy Pelosi: A Master of the House
This article analyzes the record of Nancy Pelosi’s four terms as Speaker of the House of Representatives. It evaluates her performance through three main lenses: as a party leader, institutional leade...
www.degruyterbrill.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:40 PM
When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
If by guardian, he means literally removing the House of Representatives' from any governing role on tariffs and other matters, sure.
Maybe somebody in the universe can remember a speaker who was more pliant to the President than Mike Johnson, but I can't.
Maybe somebody in the universe can remember a speaker who was more pliant to the President than Mike Johnson, but I can't.
Mike Johnson on the tariffs case before SCOTUS: "I'm cheering for the president that the executive will win on this. Now, I say that as a jealous guardian of the legislative branch of government, Article 1."
November 6, 2025 at 1:51 PM
If by guardian, he means literally removing the House of Representatives' from any governing role on tariffs and other matters, sure.
Maybe somebody in the universe can remember a speaker who was more pliant to the President than Mike Johnson, but I can't.
Maybe somebody in the universe can remember a speaker who was more pliant to the President than Mike Johnson, but I can't.
Senator Tuberville has made some pretty epic tactical blunders during his time in the Senate. But, he gets this one spot on: Americans do not care about Senate rules.
Nuking the filibuster wouldn't create the uproar many Democrats assume. But Republicans won't do it anyway.
Nuking the filibuster wouldn't create the uproar many Democrats assume. But Republicans won't do it anyway.
November 6, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Senator Tuberville has made some pretty epic tactical blunders during his time in the Senate. But, he gets this one spot on: Americans do not care about Senate rules.
Nuking the filibuster wouldn't create the uproar many Democrats assume. But Republicans won't do it anyway.
Nuking the filibuster wouldn't create the uproar many Democrats assume. But Republicans won't do it anyway.
Reposted by Josh Huder
Look, I love polling, considerably more than most people. But if you start crafting an agenda from what polls well, rather than starting with what a better world looks like, one that connects to the general public's needs, and how you get from here to there, then you have no business in politics
November 4, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Look, I love polling, considerably more than most people. But if you start crafting an agenda from what polls well, rather than starting with what a better world looks like, one that connects to the general public's needs, and how you get from here to there, then you have no business in politics
Since 1980, winning a popular vote majority in presidential elections is fairly rare. Democrats only won it 3 times in 45 years.
If you zoom out, neither party is particularly popular. Any critique of one party's policy platform easily applies to the other.
If you zoom out, neither party is particularly popular. Any critique of one party's policy platform easily applies to the other.
One time. The GOP has won more than 50% of the popular vote <one time> since 1992. And yet, every day, you are bombarded with Takes™️ from Ezra Douthglesias about how deeply unpopular The Democrats and their policy platform are, without any reflection on how the same standard applies to the GOP.
The Dems have won the popular vote in presidential elections six times since 1992 by roughly 5.5%(1992), 8.5%,(1996) .5%(2000), 7.3%(2008), 4%(2012), 2%(2016),and 4.5%(2020).
In that period the GOP presidential candidate has won the popular vote twice: 2.5%(2004) and 1.5%(2024).
In that period the GOP presidential candidate has won the popular vote twice: 2.5%(2004) and 1.5%(2024).
November 4, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Since 1980, winning a popular vote majority in presidential elections is fairly rare. Democrats only won it 3 times in 45 years.
If you zoom out, neither party is particularly popular. Any critique of one party's policy platform easily applies to the other.
If you zoom out, neither party is particularly popular. Any critique of one party's policy platform easily applies to the other.
Who is staffing this anonymous Republican senator who claims Congress doesn't have a role in deciding what constitutes an emergency?
This gets a big 'F' in my class. www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
This gets a big 'F' in my class. www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
October 29, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Who is staffing this anonymous Republican senator who claims Congress doesn't have a role in deciding what constitutes an emergency?
This gets a big 'F' in my class. www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
This gets a big 'F' in my class. www.semafor.com/article/10/2...
New Congress, Two Beers In! We discuss the shutdown, Congress’s spending power, enduring constitutional fights, the Epstein files, and Rep-Elect Grijalva. Listen here! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The Shutdown Again! And other sundry things.
Podcast Episode · The Government Affairs Institute · 10/24/2025 · 33m
podcasts.apple.com
October 27, 2025 at 3:35 PM
New Congress, Two Beers In! We discuss the shutdown, Congress’s spending power, enduring constitutional fights, the Epstein files, and Rep-Elect Grijalva. Listen here! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The separation of powers rests not solely on politicians wanting power, but politicians wanting power because their constituent and political interests differ from other branches.
The nationalization of politics has significantly undercut these differences between local/national constituencies.
The nationalization of politics has significantly undercut these differences between local/national constituencies.
The Founders anticipated the possibility of a corrupt, venal, lawbreaking, wannabe monarch president.
What they did not expect is numerous people achieving prominent national office and not wanting to guard their own power. The combo of ego to run but pathetic absence of ego in office stands out.
What they did not expect is numerous people achieving prominent national office and not wanting to guard their own power. The combo of ego to run but pathetic absence of ego in office stands out.
October 25, 2025 at 11:58 PM
The separation of powers rests not solely on politicians wanting power, but politicians wanting power because their constituent and political interests differ from other branches.
The nationalization of politics has significantly undercut these differences between local/national constituencies.
The nationalization of politics has significantly undercut these differences between local/national constituencies.
Substack has reinvigorated long-form blogging, which has been great.
On the other hand, I think it's really hurt opinion writing. It's been discouraging to watch writers I really respected post borderline-derogatory slop about people, parties, ideologies, etc.
On the other hand, I think it's really hurt opinion writing. It's been discouraging to watch writers I really respected post borderline-derogatory slop about people, parties, ideologies, etc.
October 9, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Substack has reinvigorated long-form blogging, which has been great.
On the other hand, I think it's really hurt opinion writing. It's been discouraging to watch writers I really respected post borderline-derogatory slop about people, parties, ideologies, etc.
On the other hand, I think it's really hurt opinion writing. It's been discouraging to watch writers I really respected post borderline-derogatory slop about people, parties, ideologies, etc.
Mike Johnson is the elected leader of the House of Representatives but he wouldn't have the job nor can he pass significant bills without Trump's help swaying HFC-types.
It's not a recipe for tight constitutional constraints when the leader of a rival institution is too weak to perform his job.
It's not a recipe for tight constitutional constraints when the leader of a rival institution is too weak to perform his job.
Q: Do you agree that the mayor of Chicago and governor of Illinois should be in prison?
MIKE JOHNSON: Should they be in prison? I'm not the attorney general. I'm not following the day to day on that
MIKE JOHNSON: Should they be in prison? I'm not the attorney general. I'm not following the day to day on that
October 8, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Mike Johnson is the elected leader of the House of Representatives but he wouldn't have the job nor can he pass significant bills without Trump's help swaying HFC-types.
It's not a recipe for tight constitutional constraints when the leader of a rival institution is too weak to perform his job.
It's not a recipe for tight constitutional constraints when the leader of a rival institution is too weak to perform his job.
Some quick thoughts on Democrats' surprising early-polling advantage.
open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
Quick Thoughts on the Shutdown so far
Apologies for typos of half-baked thoughts.
open.substack.com
October 6, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Some quick thoughts on Democrats' surprising early-polling advantage.
open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
What an icon. I was going take my daughter to her talk next week. Very sad news. www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2...
Jane Goodall, primatologist and friend to chimpanzees, dies at 91
She used her global fame to draw attention to the plight of dwindling chimpanzee populations and, more broadly, to the perils of environmental destruction.
www.washingtonpost.com
October 1, 2025 at 11:25 PM
What an icon. I was going take my daughter to her talk next week. Very sad news. www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2...
Reposted by Josh Huder
As a reminder, doing the work necessary to conduct RIFs during a shutdown is illegal
New OPM guidance says OMB "has determined" agencies may do work on mass firings during shutdowns.
This seems like a blatant Antideficiency Act violation, which caries criminal penalties.
However, the Trump admin won't prosecute itself, so this is yet more broken budget laws from the Trump admin
🧵
This seems like a blatant Antideficiency Act violation, which caries criminal penalties.
However, the Trump admin won't prosecute itself, so this is yet more broken budget laws from the Trump admin
🧵
September 30, 2025 at 8:21 PM
As a reminder, doing the work necessary to conduct RIFs during a shutdown is illegal
Are Democrats doomed to lose the shutdown? Probably. They want a bold public argument to justify their shutdown but their leaders struggle to deliver that leadership.
This is a feature of congressional leadership. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
This is a feature of congressional leadership. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
Are Democrats Doomed to Lose the Shutdown?
Congressional leaders aren’t built to win public opinion.
open.substack.com
September 29, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Are Democrats doomed to lose the shutdown? Probably. They want a bold public argument to justify their shutdown but their leaders struggle to deliver that leadership.
This is a feature of congressional leadership. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
This is a feature of congressional leadership. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
The irony is Democrats could make an unpopular President more popular by shutting down the government in an effort to highlight his unpopular policies.
Media and Dems are still getting this badly wrong: Trump is deeply unpopular! Recent approval numbers:
38-54 (Quinnipiac)
39-60 (AP)
40-56 (Gallup)
41-58 (Reuters)
39-56 (Economist)
On the pod, @lakshya.splitticket.org explains these numbers brilliantly. Listen:
newrepublic.com/article/2010...
38-54 (Quinnipiac)
39-60 (AP)
40-56 (Gallup)
41-58 (Reuters)
39-56 (Economist)
On the pod, @lakshya.splitticket.org explains these numbers brilliantly. Listen:
newrepublic.com/article/2010...
Trump Is a Weak, Failing President. These Brutal New Polls Confirm It.
As new national polls show Trump’s approval tanking, a leading analyst explains how the data shows that Trump is far more unpopular than is commonly acknowledged—and details why this matters for 2026.
newrepublic.com
September 29, 2025 at 3:50 PM
The irony is Democrats could make an unpopular President more popular by shutting down the government in an effort to highlight his unpopular policies.
Threatening a very unpopular thing to scare Democrats off a shutdown may backfire. The biggest shutdown downside (of many) is potentially galvanizing Republicans behind Trump. But that could be blunted if the admin decides on executing very unpopular things.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
White House begins plan for mass firings if there’s a government shutdown
The Office of Management and Budget sent a memo to federal agencies Wednesday night instructing them to plan for staff reductions, including firings.
www.washingtonpost.com
September 25, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Threatening a very unpopular thing to scare Democrats off a shutdown may backfire. The biggest shutdown downside (of many) is potentially galvanizing Republicans behind Trump. But that could be blunted if the admin decides on executing very unpopular things.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
For majority members, discharge petitions signal the intensity of their support. It's not unusual for them to face (often immense) pressure from leaders. It is unusual when petitions succeed in the face of that pressure.
In this case, leadership looks beat.
www.semafor.com/article/09/2...
In this case, leadership looks beat.
www.semafor.com/article/09/2...
Massie: Republican leaders threatened supporters of push to release Epstein files
The Kentucky congressman said Republican leaders are in ‘full panic’ over the issue.
www.semafor.com
September 25, 2025 at 12:20 PM
For majority members, discharge petitions signal the intensity of their support. It's not unusual for them to face (often immense) pressure from leaders. It is unusual when petitions succeed in the face of that pressure.
In this case, leadership looks beat.
www.semafor.com/article/09/2...
In this case, leadership looks beat.
www.semafor.com/article/09/2...