James Ryan
@jdryan08.bsky.social
3.9K followers 1.6K following 2K posts
Executive Director, Middle East Research and Information Project (www.merip.org | @merip.bsky.social). Adjuncting at Rowan University. Historian interested in Turkey, Prodigal Son of Philadelphia. Usual caveats.
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Reposted by James Ryan
diplomatofnight.com
Where was this last year when everyone hailed a ceasefire in Lebanon which similarly made the Arabs cease and allowed the Israelis to fire
nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
The many media outlets, politicians, and commentators who rushed to declare “a great peace, glory to the king!” should ask themselves why they did that, and figure out how to not make the same mistake again.
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
(ABC) - The Israel Defense Forces said its troops opened fire on Palestinians, killing five, after they allegedly violated the terms of the ceasefire agreement.

abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
jdryan08.bsky.social
I agreed with this assessment, sir, but Turang striking out with bases loaded, 4 of six pitches being balls, and one of them straight at the fat part of his thigh… it keeps happening in the Dodgers’ favor.
jdryan08.bsky.social
I’m so sorry Thomas, been there myself not that long ago, it’s a terrible club but the company is alright.
Reposted by James Ryan
mbazzi.bsky.social
An underreported aspect of the Gaza ceasefire: The business deals that Trump's family made with Gulf Arab states gave Trump a personal stake in restraining Netanyahu — my piece @theguardian.com | www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by James Ryan
nkalamb.bsky.social
Incredible that this man thinks he can gaslight us into thinking he couldn’t have stopped the genocide, that he wasn’t a collaborator par excellence.
Blinken:

(2/12) First, what changed to make this breakthrough possible? Hamas is finally and fully isolated. Arab states and Turkey have said “enough.” The misery Hamas provoked and would allow to persist has delegitimized it among most Gazans. And Hamas realized that the cavalry (Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis) are not coming to the rescue.

(3/12) Israel has long since achieved its war aims -- destroying Hamas as an organized military force so October 7 can never be repeated and eliminating those responsible for its horrors – but at terrible cost to Palestinian civilians caught in a crossfire they did not start and were powerless to stop. Only the hostages remained. Israelis want them home and the war to end, putting pressure on the Israeli government to take the deal, not move the goalposts.
jdryan08.bsky.social
This is true to a degree but I ultimately don’t think it’s worth all that much. Certainly these same traits make one rightly skeptical that the deal will last, and whatever Trump thinks about Zionism, his admin is stuffed to the gills with fanatics (Kushner, Miller, Huckabee…) that exceed Biden.
jdryan08.bsky.social
Yes Trump does play ball very differently with Bibi than Biden, and it’s hard to say if Harris would be any different. The political-material shifts caused by the events of this past summer (including also the Iran war), are far more determinative, in my view.
jdryan08.bsky.social
I’ll say this, I think the utility of using the present ceasefire deal to re-litigate the 2024 election, or as a prism of Trump v Biden/Harris analysis is pretty limited. If the Qatar strike or the small wave of statehood/genocide recognition happened in 2024, it could’ve shifted results.
jdryan08.bsky.social
Good stuff, thanks for the shoutout!
Reposted by James Ryan
merip.bsky.social
ICYMI: Tariq Dana investigates the arms deals that structured the Abraham Accords, and shows how the same hardware and security tech used in the Gaza genocide is being used to repress popular movements across the region.
The Military-Industrial Backbone of Normalization - MERIP
The booming weapons industry made possible by the Abraham Accords.
buff.ly
jdryan08.bsky.social
And of course, Israel refusing to release Barghouti is a sign of their lack of seriousness when it comes to any of the political aspects of this ceasefire deal.
Reposted by James Ryan
yairwallach.bsky.social
Excluding Marwan Barghouti from the list of prisoners for release means none of the parties are serious about the second stage of the agreement (replacing Hamas with an alternative administration) let along any "peace" prospects
Reposted by James Ryan
blbalthaser.bsky.social
Trump deserves no credit for this ceasefire - even in a backhanded way. He could have stopped the war this entire past year. If you have to thank someone - and there is little to be thankful for given the ruins of Gaza - please thank the global protest movement.
jdryan08.bsky.social
This is the guy Israel tried to assassinate by rocket in Doha a month ago…
dropsitenews.com
🚨Breaking: Chief Negotiator for Palestinian resistance, Hamas’ Dr. Khalil Al-Hayya says the resistance have received guarantees from U.S. and mediators that the war has ended permanently.
jdryan08.bsky.social
Of course, this has been baked into Turkish flavors of anti-imperialism that long preceded Erdogan’s. That being said, I think he sees collaboration w/ western powers much like he sees democracy — it’s a tramway, and when you reach your stop, you get off.
jdryan08.bsky.social
Yes, though I think he’s convinced himself the US and UK will be happy to subcontract a lot of the actual work to Turkish firms.
jdryan08.bsky.social
As clunky as it is, neo-ottomanism still captures his regional worldview better than any other descriptor. And in that case, an Anglo-Turkish condominium in Gaza would be a rather striking achievement.
jdryan08.bsky.social
Erdoğan’s anti-imperialism has always and forever been an objection to *western* imperialism, not to the concept of empire tout court.
nicholasdanfort.bsky.social
Bitterly ironic that after years of anti-imperial posturing, Erdogan is now boasting about securing Hamas's signoff on an international mandate for Palestine.
jdryan08.bsky.social
The formula in PA has been well known for a long time. It’s boring white male centrist. There are huge material differences between McCormick and Casey but they cut the same figure.
jdryan08.bsky.social
Right. But perhaps more than others he seems to enjoy being flattered by the other side. McCormick seems to have intuitively understood this.