Greg Shill
@gregshill.com
Law professor at Arizona State University • Student of firms, cities & transportation (and Seinfeld) • Papers: ssrn.com/author=887547 • Newsletter: gregshill.substack.com • Co-host of Densely Speaking podcast • gregshill.com •
Pinned
Greg Shill
@gregshill.com
· Aug 7
🚨 Transportation for the Abundant Society 🚨
New draft paper (w/ Jonathan Levine) now up.
"Abundance" needs to grapple with transportation beyond megaprojects and institutions beyond zoning. We propose anchoring planning metrics in *access*, not speed of travel. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
New draft paper (w/ Jonathan Levine) now up.
"Abundance" needs to grapple with transportation beyond megaprojects and institutions beyond zoning. We propose anchoring planning metrics in *access*, not speed of travel. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Untrue! People definitely surf Lake Superior and I believe Lake Michigan too.
January 13, 2026 at 11:20 PM
Untrue! People definitely surf Lake Superior and I believe Lake Michigan too.
Michigan: Empire of the Inland Seas
January 13, 2026 at 10:07 PM
Michigan: Empire of the Inland Seas
Reposted by Greg Shill
FT Alphaville has officially joined The Resistance in the most stylish way possible: selling ‘Free Jay Powell’ T-shirts
www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/1775...
www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/1775...
January 12, 2026 at 11:32 PM
FT Alphaville has officially joined The Resistance in the most stylish way possible: selling ‘Free Jay Powell’ T-shirts
www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/1775...
www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/1775...
If Schrodinger’s cat survived its time in the box, surely it’s on its final life now.
January 12, 2026 at 3:09 AM
If Schrodinger’s cat survived its time in the box, surely it’s on its final life now.
Cars have this uniquely plastic quality where aggressive driving is widely tolerated by society and law enforcement, even when it has fatal results, but also the risk thereof, however remote, can be used to justify shooting the driver.
January 12, 2026 at 3:07 AM
Cars have this uniquely plastic quality where aggressive driving is widely tolerated by society and law enforcement, even when it has fatal results, but also the risk thereof, however remote, can be used to justify shooting the driver.
The previous administration was basically in denial about this trend reversal.
Allegiant Travel reached a roughly $1 billion deal to buy Sun Country Airlines as budget-focused U.S. airlines struggle with stiff competition from larger rivals.
Allegiant Travel to Buy Sun Country Airlines for About $1 Billion
The proposed deal comes as budget carriers’ business models are under strain.
on.wsj.com
January 11, 2026 at 10:55 PM
The previous administration was basically in denial about this trend reversal.
The realization a focus on finance tends to foster is that you can only escape fundamentals so long.
Republicans forced the Bureau of Land Management to put over 20,000 acres of public land in Colorado up for auction at the discount price of $10/acre with reduced royalty rates for oil and gas drilling.
No one bid for it because demand for oil is crashing though. 🔌💡
www.cpr.org/2026/01/09/b...
No one bid for it because demand for oil is crashing though. 🔌💡
www.cpr.org/2026/01/09/b...
Bureau of Land Management oil and gas auction gets zero bids in Colorado
The Trump administration wants to expand drilling on public lands, but oil and gas developers expressed zero interest in Thursday’s sale.
www.cpr.org
January 11, 2026 at 7:55 PM
The realization a focus on finance tends to foster is that you can only escape fundamentals so long.
Sealioning in here with my favorite incendiary take, which is that ORD is underrated.
a seal is looking at the camera with a red background
ALT: a seal is looking at the camera with a red background
media.tenor.com
January 11, 2026 at 5:36 PM
Sealioning in here with my favorite incendiary take, which is that ORD is underrated.
Reposted by Greg Shill
Interesting similarity between airline hubs and transit hubs.
In the US there's sometimes a tendency to build too many transit hubs, and/or build them in places that don't make any sense for the network, because they're seen as local amenities rather than tools for helping people travel.
In the US there's sometimes a tendency to build too many transit hubs, and/or build them in places that don't make any sense for the network, because they're seen as local amenities rather than tools for helping people travel.
Agree with @crankyflier.com, the US isn’t getting any new hubs. Some Delta focus cities may be upgraded to “hub” status over the years but places like Cleveland, Pittsburgh and definitely Columbus will never have a hub again.
No, United is not coming back: Why Cleveland Hopkins will never be a major airline hub again
Here’s the truth: Cleveland Hopkins International Airport will never again be a hub for a major legacy carrier like United. The city is even building a new airport terminal that accepts that reality.
www.cleveland.com
January 11, 2026 at 3:38 PM
Interesting similarity between airline hubs and transit hubs.
In the US there's sometimes a tendency to build too many transit hubs, and/or build them in places that don't make any sense for the network, because they're seen as local amenities rather than tools for helping people travel.
In the US there's sometimes a tendency to build too many transit hubs, and/or build them in places that don't make any sense for the network, because they're seen as local amenities rather than tools for helping people travel.
Reposted by Greg Shill
Population decline is often offered as a reason for why California doesn't need to build housing. (Never mind the obvious fact that that it's endogenous to the shortage.) But even if California didn't grow at all, shrinking household sizes and deterioration would necessitate more housing.
Oregon's net population growth has slowed. But even if it stopped *completely*, state economists estimate we'd still need to add 50k more homes in the next 20 years.
That's because longer lives & smaller families mean we'll have many more small households. It's about 1/3 of all our future need.
That's because longer lives & smaller families mean we'll have many more small households. It's about 1/3 of all our future need.
January 9, 2026 at 11:04 PM
Population decline is often offered as a reason for why California doesn't need to build housing. (Never mind the obvious fact that that it's endogenous to the shortage.) But even if California didn't grow at all, shrinking household sizes and deterioration would necessitate more housing.
A weakness of the meme-in-practice is that it’s backwards. But it works in theory!
January 9, 2026 at 3:40 PM
A weakness of the meme-in-practice is that it’s backwards. But it works in theory!
I don’t think the bad example point holds. It’s the Don Draper elevator meme; 90%+ of Americans don’t think about Europe at all, except as a cutesy aspirational vacation destination.
January 9, 2026 at 3:34 PM
I don’t think the bad example point holds. It’s the Don Draper elevator meme; 90%+ of Americans don’t think about Europe at all, except as a cutesy aspirational vacation destination.
Reposted by Greg Shill
For the two Iowa metro areas:
1. Ames used to be ~100 in ‘14.
2. Iowa City Transit, 1/3 agencies in IC, went fare free but the metro slipped from 11th to 16th.
3. Both metros have lost ridership in last decade to *walking*, as new mid/high-rise student-serving apartments were built near campus.
1. Ames used to be ~100 in ‘14.
2. Iowa City Transit, 1/3 agencies in IC, went fare free but the metro slipped from 11th to 16th.
3. Both metros have lost ridership in last decade to *walking*, as new mid/high-rise student-serving apartments were built near campus.
Here are the 20 US urban areas that had the highest per-capita transit ridership in 2024.
New York, unsurprisingly, dominated. Among the big urban areas, the other leaders were SF, DC & Boston.
A lot of small towns—like Ames, IA or Champaign, IL—did well, too. That's because they're college towns!
New York, unsurprisingly, dominated. Among the big urban areas, the other leaders were SF, DC & Boston.
A lot of small towns—like Ames, IA or Champaign, IL—did well, too. That's because they're college towns!
January 9, 2026 at 2:35 PM
For the two Iowa metro areas:
1. Ames used to be ~100 in ‘14.
2. Iowa City Transit, 1/3 agencies in IC, went fare free but the metro slipped from 11th to 16th.
3. Both metros have lost ridership in last decade to *walking*, as new mid/high-rise student-serving apartments were built near campus.
1. Ames used to be ~100 in ‘14.
2. Iowa City Transit, 1/3 agencies in IC, went fare free but the metro slipped from 11th to 16th.
3. Both metros have lost ridership in last decade to *walking*, as new mid/high-rise student-serving apartments were built near campus.
Our section’s main program (Crisis and Capacity: State and Local Government in a Time of Constraint) had terrific presentations, with excellent Q&A to match. Thanks to Rick and the other panelists and
Chair-Elect (now Chair) Kelly for making it such a success!
Chair-Elect (now Chair) Kelly for making it such a success!
Gave my first AALS presentation at #AALS2026. I had a fun time speaking alongside a great group of scholars at the State and Local Government Section, and I owe a big "Thank you!" to @gregshill.com and Kelly Deere for organizing the lovely session.
January 8, 2026 at 8:11 PM
Our section’s main program (Crisis and Capacity: State and Local Government in a Time of Constraint) had terrific presentations, with excellent Q&A to match. Thanks to Rick and the other panelists and
Chair-Elect (now Chair) Kelly for making it such a success!
Chair-Elect (now Chair) Kelly for making it such a success!
It’s one bridge, Michael. What could it cost?
The IBR will cost as much as $17.7 billion, more than double the previous max. cost of $7.5 billion, according to documents unearthed by City Observatory. cityobservatory.org/17-7-billion...
January 8, 2026 at 3:40 AM
It’s one bridge, Michael. What could it cost?
Another interpretation of this finding is that people sort into housing arrangements that suit their preferences. It’s an important distinction: the problem isn’t that more people don’t live in walkable neighborhoods. It’s that more who want to (call it 25% of US adults), effectively can’t do so.
A Washington Post article suggests that, beyond a certain threshold, larger homes don't make people happier. Instead, well-being is correlated with affordable housing in walkable neighborhoods where they feel socially connected.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
![Excerpt reads: "Prioritize your neighborhood
Neighborhoods drive our happiness (or unhappiness) more than we think.
When Lina Martinez, director of POLIS, the Center for Wellbeing Studies at Universidad Icesi in Colombia, studied the happiness of households in the city of Cali, she couldn’t find much difference between poorer and richer areas. “Their happiness is pretty much the same,” she said. But that changed when she isolated neighborhood conditions, such as access to transit, health care and parks. “The conditions of the neighborhood affect happiness,” she said. “I can’t link that to the space where [people] live.”
That aligns with findings from a 2023 study of the Vancouver metro area: Researchers found no significant differences in well-being between people living in single detached homes, duplexes, townhouses, laneway houses and apartment buildings (basement units smaller than 300 square feet were the only negative exception). What did people say they missed most in their neighborhood? Affordability, proximity to family and friends, and a sense of community. Home design was eighth on the list."](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ks3gpa6ftoyaq7hmf6c4qx4c/bafkreicapfknasylzk2lqzaxxeb5mchgnru75obggn45dusda6j5zogvuu@jpeg)
January 7, 2026 at 4:42 PM
Another interpretation of this finding is that people sort into housing arrangements that suit their preferences. It’s an important distinction: the problem isn’t that more people don’t live in walkable neighborhoods. It’s that more who want to (call it 25% of US adults), effectively can’t do so.
Reposted by Greg Shill
No surprise that state and local government job openings are plunging (was inevitable regardless of who won in 2024 given the fiscal trajectory at the state and local level):
January 7, 2026 at 3:24 PM
No surprise that state and local government job openings are plunging (was inevitable regardless of who won in 2024 given the fiscal trajectory at the state and local level):
There probably have never been more kid play spaces than there are now, they’re just only open to people with means.
(Emblematic of broader issues without an easy solution, I realize.)
(Emblematic of broader issues without an easy solution, I realize.)
January 6, 2026 at 5:25 PM
There probably have never been more kid play spaces than there are now, they’re just only open to people with means.
(Emblematic of broader issues without an easy solution, I realize.)
(Emblematic of broader issues without an easy solution, I realize.)
When you don’t have kids, the decline of convenient free third places (play spaces, cafes nice for sitting, bookstores nice for browsing, small neighborhood parks) is a kind of ambiently sad background thing. When you do, you get a glimpse of a future where it’s like they never existed.
The one Arlington McDonald's with a PlayPlace has been "modernized" to not have a PlayPlace
January 6, 2026 at 5:23 PM
When you don’t have kids, the decline of convenient free third places (play spaces, cafes nice for sitting, bookstores nice for browsing, small neighborhood parks) is a kind of ambiently sad background thing. When you do, you get a glimpse of a future where it’s like they never existed.
A year ago yesterday, congestion pricing launched in NYC. I wrote (I believe the only) law review article scoping the legal structure of the policy, beyond narrow question of legality. Early signs are the new mayoral administration is moving forward with some of the city-first reforms I proposed.
🚨 Publication day for “Beyond Congestion Pricing,” out now in the @umichlaw.bsky.social Journal of Law & Mobility.🔓 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
It was a pleasure working with them—fast editing process plus peer review (a rare combination!) makes it a great destination for scholars in the field.
It was a pleasure working with them—fast editing process plus peer review (a rare combination!) makes it a great destination for scholars in the field.
January 6, 2026 at 4:35 PM
A year ago yesterday, congestion pricing launched in NYC. I wrote (I believe the only) law review article scoping the legal structure of the policy, beyond narrow question of legality. Early signs are the new mayoral administration is moving forward with some of the city-first reforms I proposed.
A year ago, congestion pricing launched in NYC. I had Claude write a Seinfeld scene based on it. As a longtime fan (of both), I think it did a swell job!
January 6, 2026 at 3:36 PM
A year ago, congestion pricing launched in NYC. I had Claude write a Seinfeld scene based on it. As a longtime fan (of both), I think it did a swell job!
Before my time really, but was introduced to it by my older brother.
January 5, 2026 at 10:41 PM
Before my time really, but was introduced to it by my older brother.
To observe that 11% of the vehicles that once entered Manhattan’s core have “disappeared” is not to deny that those trips had value. They did. But we know how little value they were to those making them: less than $9. A low price for improving air quality, safety, efficiency & transit all at once.
Today in the New York Times:
"One year after the start of congestion pricing, traffic jams are less severe, streets are safer, and commute times are improving for travelers from well beyond Manhattan."
"One year after the start of congestion pricing, traffic jams are less severe, streets are safer, and commute times are improving for travelers from well beyond Manhattan."
January 5, 2026 at 4:58 PM
To observe that 11% of the vehicles that once entered Manhattan’s core have “disappeared” is not to deny that those trips had value. They did. But we know how little value they were to those making them: less than $9. A low price for improving air quality, safety, efficiency & transit all at once.
Can you increase vehicle speeds through the most pedestrian-rich part of America while at the same time increasing pedestrian safety? It turns out you can.
Maybe because the toll reduced the number of cars or, perhaps, changed driver composition or behavior. Interesting puzzle, impressive result.
Maybe because the toll reduced the number of cars or, perhaps, changed driver composition or behavior. Interesting puzzle, impressive result.
January 5, 2026 at 1:19 PM
Can you increase vehicle speeds through the most pedestrian-rich part of America while at the same time increasing pedestrian safety? It turns out you can.
Maybe because the toll reduced the number of cars or, perhaps, changed driver composition or behavior. Interesting puzzle, impressive result.
Maybe because the toll reduced the number of cars or, perhaps, changed driver composition or behavior. Interesting puzzle, impressive result.
How would you measure or characterize influence?
January 4, 2026 at 7:09 PM
How would you measure or characterize influence?