Greg Shill
@gregshill.com
Professor, Arizona State University Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law • Student of firms, cities & transportation (and Seinfeld) • Papers: ssrn.com/author=887547 • Newsletter: gregshill.substack.com • Co-host of Densely Speaking podcast • gregshill.com
Orwell said it better.
November 19, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Orwell said it better.
Some details on the ingredients of success here.
November 19, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Some details on the ingredients of success here.
Not going to link to the threads—it's a common take, and I'm not interested in singling out any one person voicing it—but:
Why do folks who follow tech keep assuming that Google is cannibalizing its search revenue with Gemini?
Alphabet keeps reporting that search revenue keeps climbing:
Why do folks who follow tech keep assuming that Google is cannibalizing its search revenue with Gemini?
Alphabet keeps reporting that search revenue keeps climbing:
November 18, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Not going to link to the threads—it's a common take, and I'm not interested in singling out any one person voicing it—but:
Why do folks who follow tech keep assuming that Google is cannibalizing its search revenue with Gemini?
Alphabet keeps reporting that search revenue keeps climbing:
Why do folks who follow tech keep assuming that Google is cannibalizing its search revenue with Gemini?
Alphabet keeps reporting that search revenue keeps climbing:
Another Aaron Rupar tweet, another basically misleading quote. Watch for yourself. (In this clip, he's saying he can't guarantee the safety of people walking outside or driving in cars.) You don't have to make stuff up to be concerned about the state of our country.
November 11, 2025 at 10:38 PM
Another Aaron Rupar tweet, another basically misleading quote. Watch for yourself. (In this clip, he's saying he can't guarantee the safety of people walking outside or driving in cars.) You don't have to make stuff up to be concerned about the state of our country.
Gotta say, I find a lot of research on retirement investment underpowered. Of course starting with 30% bonds and moving to 80% stocks performs better over 30 years than the reverse! (This doesn't tell you what to do in the years leading up to, or at the beginning of, the 30-year period.)
November 11, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Gotta say, I find a lot of research on retirement investment underpowered. Of course starting with 30% bonds and moving to 80% stocks performs better over 30 years than the reverse! (This doesn't tell you what to do in the years leading up to, or at the beginning of, the 30-year period.)
This is partly cyclical (societal age composition, higher risk tolerance in a bull market), but I suspect also structural: we have the first generation to retire with substantial 401(k) holdings, and they're realizing that with a higher equity allocation they can keep accruing net of distributions.
November 11, 2025 at 10:25 PM
This is partly cyclical (societal age composition, higher risk tolerance in a bull market), but I suspect also structural: we have the first generation to retire with substantial 401(k) holdings, and they're realizing that with a higher equity allocation they can keep accruing net of distributions.
Every fall, the Chair of the AALS Section on State and Local Government Law writes a short column detailing the Section's agenda for the Annual Meeting. Thanks to the efforts of my fellow board members and our co-sponsors, we have an outstanding lineup of events and speakers. I hope to see you.
November 11, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Every fall, the Chair of the AALS Section on State and Local Government Law writes a short column detailing the Section's agenda for the Annual Meeting. Thanks to the efforts of my fellow board members and our co-sponsors, we have an outstanding lineup of events and speakers. I hope to see you.
More research on remote work, here some gender impacts of RTO mandates. I’m curious if these effects, especially when combined with the shrinking immigrant labor pool, are big enough to be holding down the official unemployment rate.
www.wsj.com/economy/gend...
www.wsj.com/economy/gend...
November 9, 2025 at 9:19 PM
More research on remote work, here some gender impacts of RTO mandates. I’m curious if these effects, especially when combined with the shrinking immigrant labor pool, are big enough to be holding down the official unemployment rate.
www.wsj.com/economy/gend...
www.wsj.com/economy/gend...
I have mixed feelings about it on the merits, but the 50-year mortgage is probably the only thing that can boost ownership affordability in the near term.
As I have noted, supply is stuck so finance is the logical lever to pull.
As I have noted, supply is stuck so finance is the logical lever to pull.
November 9, 2025 at 3:10 AM
I have mixed feelings about it on the merits, but the 50-year mortgage is probably the only thing that can boost ownership affordability in the near term.
As I have noted, supply is stuck so finance is the logical lever to pull.
As I have noted, supply is stuck so finance is the logical lever to pull.
Just wrapped up a talk on transportation policy and abundance at the 22nd Annual Brigham-Kanner Property Rights Conference at William & Mary Law School. So many great insights at the conference, none more so than those of this year’s honoree, Bill Fischel, economist and giant of land use.
October 24, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Just wrapped up a talk on transportation policy and abundance at the 22nd Annual Brigham-Kanner Property Rights Conference at William & Mary Law School. So many great insights at the conference, none more so than those of this year’s honoree, Bill Fischel, economist and giant of land use.
How does this get weighed by the board consistently with Revlon? (earnest answers only)
October 24, 2025 at 4:57 AM
How does this get weighed by the board consistently with Revlon? (earnest answers only)
Gov. Josh Shapiro’s attempted assassin claimed a similar motivation.
Armed guards are now standard at Jewish events. My kids will never know the innocence of the world I grew up in.
Armed guards are now standard at Jewish events. My kids will never know the innocence of the world I grew up in.
October 23, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Gov. Josh Shapiro’s attempted assassin claimed a similar motivation.
Armed guards are now standard at Jewish events. My kids will never know the innocence of the world I grew up in.
Armed guards are now standard at Jewish events. My kids will never know the innocence of the world I grew up in.
Possibly relevant to those conversations:
Disney stock over the past five days compared with its S&P500 sector. Not a great trend if you think the response was going to build from here.
Disney stock over the past five days compared with its S&P500 sector. Not a great trend if you think the response was going to build from here.
September 22, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Possibly relevant to those conversations:
Disney stock over the past five days compared with its S&P500 sector. Not a great trend if you think the response was going to build from here.
Disney stock over the past five days compared with its S&P500 sector. Not a great trend if you think the response was going to build from here.
What the newsletter is about:
September 21, 2025 at 3:42 PM
What the newsletter is about:
Chart from September SWAA (Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes) update showing variation in work location by educational attainment. Half of workers with college degrees and 56% with grad degrees work fully WFH or hybrid.
SWAA data series is now on FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/3...
SWAA data series is now on FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/3...
September 9, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Chart from September SWAA (Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes) update showing variation in work location by educational attainment. Half of workers with college degrees and 56% with grad degrees work fully WFH or hybrid.
SWAA data series is now on FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/3...
SWAA data series is now on FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/3...
Stolen from Facebook. I am fond of saying that every small city has its one tall-ish building (20 or 30 stories), usually from over half a century ago, that caused the local notables to coalesce around banning more city.
September 5, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Stolen from Facebook. I am fond of saying that every small city has its one tall-ish building (20 or 30 stories), usually from over half a century ago, that caused the local notables to coalesce around banning more city.
If Intel becomes the playbook, someone should create an ETF for these companies. Whether the strategy should be long or short is an exercise left to the fund manager.
August 26, 2025 at 5:12 AM
If Intel becomes the playbook, someone should create an ETF for these companies. Whether the strategy should be long or short is an exercise left to the fund manager.
First week of class at ASU Law in the books! So great meeting new Contracts students and colleagues. In lieu of a hairy hand, sharing pix from main campus and inside a Waymo.
August 23, 2025 at 4:07 PM
First week of class at ASU Law in the books! So great meeting new Contracts students and colleagues. In lieu of a hairy hand, sharing pix from main campus and inside a Waymo.
🚨 Law profs: announcing the State and Local Government Law panel at AALS Annual Meeting 2026:
"Crisis and Capacity: State and Local Government Law in a Time of Constraint"
As chair, and on behalf of the executive committee, I'm pleased to attach our CFP. Submit by 9/17. I'm happy to answer any Qs.
"Crisis and Capacity: State and Local Government Law in a Time of Constraint"
As chair, and on behalf of the executive committee, I'm pleased to attach our CFP. Submit by 9/17. I'm happy to answer any Qs.
August 21, 2025 at 7:35 PM
🚨 Law profs: announcing the State and Local Government Law panel at AALS Annual Meeting 2026:
"Crisis and Capacity: State and Local Government Law in a Time of Constraint"
As chair, and on behalf of the executive committee, I'm pleased to attach our CFP. Submit by 9/17. I'm happy to answer any Qs.
"Crisis and Capacity: State and Local Government Law in a Time of Constraint"
As chair, and on behalf of the executive committee, I'm pleased to attach our CFP. Submit by 9/17. I'm happy to answer any Qs.
During the years that Seinfeld was on the air (1989-98), real housing prices in NYC fell by about a quarter. Manhattan did a bit worse than the city as a whole, though the Upper West Side (where most of the characters lived) did better. furmancenter.org/files/sotc/S...
August 17, 2025 at 11:41 PM
During the years that Seinfeld was on the air (1989-98), real housing prices in NYC fell by about a quarter. Manhattan did a bit worse than the city as a whole, though the Upper West Side (where most of the characters lived) did better. furmancenter.org/files/sotc/S...
A back-of-the-envelope crack at quantifying mortgage lock-in. Why? To try to get at demand and supply side effects alike of a potential material rate cut.
A huge number of people (~33M locked in), but unclear the effect of supply they will reintroduce if rates drop, given scale of overall market.
A huge number of people (~33M locked in), but unclear the effect of supply they will reintroduce if rates drop, given scale of overall market.
August 17, 2025 at 6:13 AM
A back-of-the-envelope crack at quantifying mortgage lock-in. Why? To try to get at demand and supply side effects alike of a potential material rate cut.
A huge number of people (~33M locked in), but unclear the effect of supply they will reintroduce if rates drop, given scale of overall market.
A huge number of people (~33M locked in), but unclear the effect of supply they will reintroduce if rates drop, given scale of overall market.
Vail’s tailwind over the past five years—social distancing, revenge travel, top nth percent consumption driving the economy, wealth effects, retirement effects, etc.—should have been strong. The context is even more disappointing if you look back to 1997.
August 12, 2025 at 4:20 AM
Vail’s tailwind over the past five years—social distancing, revenge travel, top nth percent consumption driving the economy, wealth effects, retirement effects, etc.—should have been strong. The context is even more disappointing if you look back to 1997.