Erin Lockwood
@erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
2.8K followers 1.5K following 1K posts
Assistant professor of Political Science at the University of California, Irvine | researching and teaching IPE, financial politics, global inequality | fan of plants, birds, snacks, sci-fi, quilting | she/her
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erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
Hello! I'm a political scientist at the University of California Irvine researching + teaching IR/IPE and interested in the politics of risk and uncertainty as they relate to financial regulation, AI, and climate intervention. I also work on the politics of global economic inequality.
Reposted by Erin Lockwood
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
[reverent priestly voice] For just as Paul writes to the Ephesians that we are God's handiwork, so too are we called to be God's hands, God's plague of frogs, in the world
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
[reverent priestly voice] For just as Paul writes to the Ephesians that we are God's handiwork, so too are we called to be God's hands, God's plague of frogs, in the world
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
God has no body but yours
No hands, no feet on earth but yours
No plague of frogs to condemn tyrannical rule but yours

- St. Teresa of Avila
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
Vote by mail rules, part 2 🗳️📬
Email from the California Secretary of State confirming my ballot was received and counted
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
A paradox!
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
Or will the Treasury market, having learned from Trump's backing off last time, price that in and not react, assuming he'll back down? But if it's the bond market reaction that caused Trump to back down last, if they price in his backing down, does he in fact not back down?
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
Or will the Treasury market, having learned from Trump's backing off last time, price that in and not react, assuming he'll back down? But if it's the bond market reaction that caused Trump to back down last, if they price in his backing down, does he in fact not back down?
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
But that doesn't mean observers and scholars should not engage in this work! Understanding what these markets do, what they are, how they distribute assets, who they benefit and who they harm is crucially important work, especially as they become more deeply woven into our society and politics.
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
With a CFTC that's all too willing to let a thousand socially useless (at best) markets flourish with minimal regulation, though, I'd guess that there's very little incentive for prediction markets to bother expending resources distinguishing themselves from gambling.
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
See Marieke de Goede's Virtue, Fortune, Faith, as well as my work on OTC derivatives markets here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
From bombs to boons: changing views of risk and regulation in the pre-crisis OTC derivatives market - Theory and Society
At the core of the 2008 financial crisis was a massive, un-publicly regulated market of complex financial products, which transmitted losses in the US residential mortgage market throughout the global financial system. How did the market for over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives grow so large and so risky with so little public supervision and regulation? At the heart of the matter, I contend, are changes in how both derivatives and risk have been understood as objects of governance. This article focuses on the decade preceding the passage of the 2000 Commodity Futures Modernization Act to demonstrate how competing and ultimately shifting understandings of both derivatives and financial risk put in place the conditions of possibility for the definitive deregulation of this market. Through a detailed interpretive analysis of regulatory documents, I show that changes in OTC derivatives regulation have been driven by changes in how regulators interpret derivatives themselves in a context of changing beliefs about risk and its management. Although regulators were acutely aware of OTC derivatives’ contribution to systemic risk as early as the early 1990s, they ultimately concluded that derivatives’ ability to serve as tools of risk management and generators of financial profits was consistent with their goal of promoting deep and liquid financial markets and thus took a decisively hands-off approach to regulation. The article concludes with a discussion of what shifts in interpretation and regulation of derivatives can tell us about the limits and potential for lasting post-crisis changes in financial governance.
link.springer.com
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
This should, in theory, cut against the idea of an objectively knowable future that underpins these markets' implicit claim to be something other than gambling. At least historically, the ability to distinguish derivatives markets from gambling was central to their legitimacy.
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
2) There's something very circular about a prediction market that claims that payoff-generating, crowd-sourced bets can efficiently price the future giving rise to disputes that can only be resolved by ... payoff-generating, crowd-sourced human judgment. How far are we really from pure speculation?
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
Two further reflections on the above thread:

1) For all the hype of smart contracts/blockchain/defi eliminating slow, messy human labor and replacing it with Cool New Technology, these markets depend on irreducibly human interpretive work in the final instance. AI hype participants: take note!
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
Curious about how Polymarket decides if a bet on something potentially ambiguous is going to pay out? I was, so I dug into it. It's not all that different from how credit events are decided in the credit derivatives market but with (perhaps not surprisingly) a blockchain twist 🧵
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
One interesting thing about Polymarket bets is that the resolution authors specify how the question will be resolved, i.e., the data source that will be used to determine whether the bet pays out. Based on a casual browsing, these often reference official statistics.
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
I'm curious about the effect of this anonymity and opacity on controversial events contract votes. Presumably UMA's anonymity precludes vote selling. On the other hand, what's to stop someone from buying enough tokens to tip the balance in their favor? Would this simply be too expensive to bother?
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
The difference from ISDA's Determinations Committees is that the members of the DC are public as are their votes (see, for example, the Altice France bankruptcy decision here). In contrast, Polymarket's "determinations committee" members are anonymous blockchain token holders.
www.cdsdeterminationscommittees.org
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
So, if someone holding the wrong side of the detentions bet wants to dispute the official data used to resolve this contract, they would file a dispute on the Optimistic Oracle blockchain and blockchain token holders would vote on whether the official data would be accepted or not.
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
Polymarket has its own resolution dispute process: a challenge period during which time disputes can be filed and those holding UMA blockchain tokens can vote on the contested resolution, where "correct" voting (i.e., with the majority) generates rewards.
docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-l...
How Are Markets Disputed? - Polymarket Documentation
docs.polymarket.com
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
In the credit derivative market, this issue has been addressed by ISDA's Determinations Committee, a body which is tasked with determining whether a credit event (e.g., bankruptcy, sovereign default) has occurred for purposes triggering a credit derivative contract.
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
The challenge in both cases is deciding whether the underlying event has occurred. In some cases it's obvious (winner of a game), but in others, less so (was Greece's introduction of collective action clauses into its sovereign debt contracts a credit event triggering payouts to CDS holders?).
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
This is not a new problem! Events contracts, like those traded on Polymarket, are essentially a kind of derivative contract whose payout is determined by a broad range of underlying events (election results, album sales, baseball games) as opposed to a credit event (e.g., a bankruptcy or default).
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
But as official data are becoming less and less credible, one can readily imagine that will have implications for the resolution of these contracts. Are ICE's own deportation numbers going to be credible in Feb. 2026? If they're not, could someone dispute the resolution of this bet?
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
One interesting thing about Polymarket bets is that the resolution authors specify how the question will be resolved, i.e., the data source that will be used to determine whether the bet pays out. Based on a casual browsing, these often reference official statistics.
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
But only slightly. These bets exist.

Polymarket already allows you to bet on how many people will be deported under the Trump administration in 2025.
Two bets from Polymarket, one which reads "How many people will Trump deport in 2025?" and one which says "Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?"
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
Nightmare vision of the federal masked secret police investing in the ability to make money off of bets on detention and deportation numbers recedes slightly.
erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
I'm sorry, wha --

Oh, the other ICE.
ICE Announces Strategic Investment in Polymarket