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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 7h

Correct. One *can* use balance sheet data and asset returns to estimate “passive saving” and then back out “active saving.” That lets you estimate outlays. I have a study incorporating that methodology coming out soon. In the Moody’s case, look here for clues: doi.org/10.1093/cje/...

Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery

Abstract. Rising inequality reduced income growth for the bottom 95% of the US personal income distribution beginning about 1980. To maintain stable debt t

doi.org

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 7h

Re: “how do they go past the most recent SCF”.

Quoting the DFA page: The second step is to transform the reconciled SCF balance sheet … for each sub-population on a quarterly basis between SCF surveys, and FORECASTING these balance sheets for each quarter beyond the most recent survey year.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 7h

I cannot say for sure. When I said “same procedure,” I was painting in broad strokes: I meant using a combination of SCF waves for distributional information and aggregate series for higher frequency flow information.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 8h

Mark Zandi explained it to me.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 8h

Look up Maki and Palumbo (2001) in the references in this paper. See also, discussion in this paper. The idea is interpolating aggregate series (e.g. FAOTUS née Flow of Funds or BEA NIPA tables) anchoring on the SCF balance sheet data every three years. academic.oup.com/cje/article-...

Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery

Abstract. Rising inequality reduced income growth for the bottom 95% of the US personal income distribution beginning about 1980. To maintain stable debt t

academic.oup.com

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 8h

The Moody‘s disaggregated consumption series follows a procedure similar to the Maki and Palumbo paper here: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 20h

How long can they Merrick this duly elected representative?

Adelita for Congress @adelitaforcongress.bsky.social · 22h

Speaker Johnson, you ready to swear me in?

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 20h

I’ve been thinking about this news today. Many will infer that taking protein powder is a bad idea; people consume too much protein, etc. Others will ask why this type of testing isn’t compulsory for supplements and other food production. I am wondering what we can do to get the led out of the soil.

paris martineau @paris.nyc · 1d

my latest investigation for @consumerreports.org is based on months of reporting and 60+ lab tests of leading protein supplements

we found that most protein powders and shakes have more lead in one serving than our experts say is safe to have in a day (🧵)

www.consumerreports.org/lead/protein...

Protein Powders and Shakes Contain High Levels of Lead - Consumer Reports

CR tests of 23 popular protein powders and shakes found that most contain high levels of lead.

www.consumerreports.org

Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 1d

Try the new Cheerios with myostatin inhibitors.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 2d

Postmodern finance theory is a fancy way of saying animal spirits.

eggnog slut @deus01.bsky.social · 2d

postmodern finance theory

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Reposted by Barry Cynamon

Starfish Who Can’t Think Something Witty @irhottakes.bsky.social · 3d

I love RPG shops. Going over to some dumpy looking peasant and being like “Here’s 50,000 gold pieces. I need a tome of necromancy, three scrolls of fireball, a potion of invisibility, a dagger, an axe, an amulet of feather fall, and no questions asked,” is such a mood.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 3d

Very cool. What is Subway Builder?

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 3d

Where is your West Berkeley stop? It looks to be near University and San Pablo.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 4d

I can’t wait to watch the documentary about the YIMBYs who added more steam trains to trigger SB79.

Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 4d

I think I just used the bsky social thing. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 4d

I don’t know. What does invalid handle even mean?

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 4d

This is the best kind of post. Really makes you think.

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Reposted by Barry Cynamon

Laura Jedeed @laurajedeed.bsky.social · 5d

Portland Frog gets it

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 5d

Now we just need to make the transit high quality.

California YIMBY @cayimby.bsky.social · 5d

[VICTORY ALERT] Governor Newsom has signed SB 79, which will make it legal to build multi-family housing near high quality transit!

Our statement:
cayimby.org/news-events/...

cayimby.org

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Reposted by Barry Cynamon

Bryn Davidson - Lanefab @lanefab.com · 5d

SB79 (California) just signed into law

Muhammad Alameldin @muhammadspeaks.bsky.social · Sep 13

SB 79 now stands as the largest pro-housing land-use legislation in this nation’s modern history.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 5d

Real ”we’re gonna have to placeholder Jeff” energy here.

George Pearkes @peark.es · 5d

I couldn't believe this but it's true, Thiel can't decide whether the antichrist is Greta or Big Yud. Positively reeling.

(Washington Post) -- Tech billionaire Peter Thiel recently warned that Swedish activist Greta Thunberg and critics of technology or artificial intelligence are "legionnaires of the Antichrist" in private lectures on Christianity that connected government oversight of Silicon Valley to an apocalyptic future, according to recordings reviewed by The Washington Post.
In the four, roughly two-hour lectures, which began last month and culminated Monday at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, Thiel laid out his religious views to a sold-out audience told to keep the contents "off-the-record," according to an event listing. He argued that those who propose limits on technology development not only hinder business but threaten to usher in the destruction of the United States and an era of global totalitarian rule, according to the recordings.
"In the 17th, 18th century, the Antichrist would have been a Dr. Strangelove, a scientist who did all this sort of evil crazy science," Thiel said in his Sept. 15 opening talk, according to the recordings. "In the 21st century, the Antichrist is a Luddite who wants to stop all science. It's someone like Greta or Eliezer," he said, referring to Thunberg and Eliezer Yudkowsky, a prominent critic of the tech industry's approach to AI.

Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 6d

Way to go!

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Reposted by Barry Cynamon

Sanho Tree @sanho.bsky.social · 6d

“A study, published on Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, showed that last season’s 2024–2025 mRNA COVID vaccines reduced people’s risk of emergency department visits by 29 percent, their risk of hospitalizations by 39 percent and their risk of death by 64 percent.”

Scientific American @sciam.bsky.social · 7d

A new study shows that receiving an updated COVID vaccine reduced people’s risk of severe disease and death in all age groups, regardless of immunity from prior infection or vaccination

Annual COVID Vaccines Save Lives, New Study Shows

A new study shows that receiving an updated COVID vaccine reduced people’s risk of severe disease and death in all age groups, regardless of immunity from prior infection or vaccination

www.scientificamerican.com

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 7d

He was working on it, but he never finished it. That‘s the fallacy of composition.

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Barry Cynamon @cynamon.bsky.social · 7d

A mentor (a parent of three) once told me: If I knew what it would be like, I wouldn’t have done it—which is why I am glad I didn’t.

People don’t always recognize that it is possible to love your children fiercely and want only the best for them while also finding them terribly aggravating.

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